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Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 20:09:00 -
[1] - Quote
Everyone talks about RvR and about how it's out of whack. It's messed up in high sec, it's messed up null sec. Pretty much everywhere you go on the forums these days, some is whispering the magic words and clicking their heels together.
What is the metric this is based on? How does anyone know? What's the correct formula? Blanket statements don't really do it for me. Even if you think there's literally zero risk for doing x in hi/lo/null sec.
Should people lose, on average, 100 million ISK for every 500 million they earn? Every billion?
What's the magical secret formula that everyone but me seems to know? |

Sarah Schneider
PonyWaffe Test Alliance Please Ignore
1639
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Posted - 2012.12.25 20:26:00 -
[2] - Quote
There are like two dozen similar threads out there and you chose to create your own? what's so special about yours? How to : Playing Eve 100% Risk and Conflict FREE! |

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
4878
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Posted - 2012.12.25 20:41:00 -
[3] - Quote
well... it was a xmas post  "Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff-á |

Zen Sarum
EliteTroll
8
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Posted - 2012.12.25 20:47:00 -
[4] - Quote
Talking about risk vs reward in general is kinda pointless without also talking about player activity and more importantly interactions.
1. So say you rat mine or mission for 20 hours a week in 0.5sec and earn 1billion a week and say the ship you use is worth 1bil that seems reasonable after a week of effort you can regain your value. Say one day you don't pay attention and get ganked for a 500mil faction booster or pimped out mining kit you use, this could happen in week one (duh) week 52 or never? The people that kill you lose 60 mils worth of ships and some sec as well as the associated time to gain it back and find you. Adding game content and destroying game content requiring effort to replace. This all seems reasonable.
2. So say you do the same in 0.0 and earn 2 billion a week in a carrier worth around 2bil with a 2 bil mach, on a second account, you fall asleep get killed by a roaming gang or awoxed hot dropped by a spy. These both needed a hostile fleet and some activity to kill. So you lose 2 weeks of earnings plus the time taken to get those assets together as well as the effort to make these and gather the elements. You also may get kicked out of your 0.0 corp for being a ******. This also all seems reasonable.
3. So say you are a combat pilot in a massive coalition, if you lose a ship it gets replaced. The coalition holds all of its space and pays the SRP as well as super and other funded programs by using static income (tech). This moons have no real risk as the coalition holds most of it and controls its price and it has reached a point where noone can ever take. The moons use resources and require maintenance but this is minimal in comparison to the income generated. So the pilot may buy new ships with this 'free' isk and this creates inflation. He may even be able to rat in a system + 50 jumps from any enemy mitigating nearly all risk. Other then buying stuff they dont need and plex.. what is the point however?
So were is risk and were is the activity in the above. |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
2604
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Posted - 2012.12.25 20:50:00 -
[5] - Quote
CCP should start banning people creating this endless plethora of photocopy threads. The tears blot the sun! Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

SegaPhoenix
BREAKING-POINT Primal Force
58
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Posted - 2012.12.25 20:52:00 -
[6] - Quote
Some would argue the most common metric is player actions. The best example of this is null-sec players creating highsec alts because the ISK in highsec is equivalent but easier and consistent. Also industry in null is lol and needs fixing.
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Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2058
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:10:00 -
[7] - Quote
Zen Sarum wrote:3. So say you are a combat pilot in a massive coalition, if you lose a ship it gets replaced. The coalition holds all of its space and pays the SRP as well as super and other funded programs by using static income (tech). This moons have no real risk as the coalition holds most of it and controls its price and it has reached a point where noone can ever take. The moons use resources and require maintenance but this is minimal in comparison to the income generated. So the pilot may buy new ships with this 'free' isk and this creates inflation. He may even be able to rat in a system + 50 jumps from any enemy mitigating nearly all risk. Other then buying stuff they dont need and plex.. what is the point however?
So were is risk and were is the activity in the above. Yes, ask all the people who lost their tech moons. It clearly was riskless for them Also, it needs to be nerfed more. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:18:00 -
[8] - Quote
I don't think you can create a metric out of something that isn't measurable (by us, anyway.) Player actions are anecdotal. I'm not saying things aren't off. Clearly, they are. I'm asking what "on" looks like.
The way risk v reward is thrown around, it seems that everyone thinks they should be related. What is that relationship? |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:21:00 -
[9] - Quote
Glathull wrote:The way risk v reward is thrown around, it seems that everyone thinks they should be related. What is that relationship? They're clearly blue to each other, forming the "HTFU and GTFO Coalition" Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Randolph Rothstein
whatever corp.
115
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:25:00 -
[10] - Quote
what i dont understand is why people expect risk vs reward balance?
/tin foil hat on
what if its meant to be unbalanced?
thats not only this game,i see it everywhere,people constantly ask for balance claiming something is OP or needs buff (LOL comes to mind with endless threads about unbalanced champions) and actually minuscule percentage of this threads make it in live game
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Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:27:00 -
[11] - Quote
Randolph Rothstein wrote:what i dont understand is why people expect risk vs reward balance?
/tin foil hat on
what if its meant to be unbalanced?
thats not only this game,i see it everywhere,people constantly ask for balance claiming something is OP or needs buff (LOL comes to mind with endless threads about unbalanced champions) and actually minuscule percentage of this threads make it in live game
Exactly. That's why we must never nerf highsec. EVE is harsh, cold and really unbalanced, HTFU Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:30:00 -
[12] - Quote
I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:33:00 -
[13] - Quote
Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? It has to ensure that when players work together (eg: intel channels) their rewards go down, in order to punish them for putting in additional effort.
Another example: you set up and use a pos to keep yourself safe, spending the effort to maintain it. This means you die less, therefore your reward must go down. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:39:00 -
[14] - Quote
Alavaria Fera wrote:Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? It has to ensure that when players work together (eg: intel channels) their rewards go down, in order to punish them for putting in additional effort. Another example: you set up and use a pos to keep yourself safe, spending the effort to maintain it. This means you die less, therefore your reward must go down.
Okay, so
R = r * I * e * s.
The r factor gets smaller the larger the number of people involved or the more ISK you spend to reduce r of dying horribly in a gankfire. |

Katran Luftschreck
Royal Ammatar Engineering Corps
349
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:49:00 -
[15] - Quote
Risk vs Reward... the theory or the reality?
The theory is pretty obvious. The reality is the greatest reward is the smallest risk: Join a nullsec Alliance and then just bot-farm your day away with their sov array generated freebie sites until you have all the ISK in the world. The smallest reward is mining, which carries the greatest risk because your constantly face being ganked by bored nullbears looking for something to throw their surplus ISK away on. EvE Forum Bingo |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:53:00 -
[16] - Quote
The theory. What should it be in theory without muddling things up with what different people think constitutes risk or reward. There's obviously a huge difference of opinion there. Taking the opinions out, what do you think the formula for risk and reward should be? |

Rain6639
Team Evil
1
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:54:00 -
[17] - Quote
risk v reward is teh dumb. sometimes there's no use for talk, and u just gotta pull the trigger. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:55:00 -
[18] - Quote
Katran Luftschreck wrote:Risk vs Reward... the theory or the reality?
The theory is pretty obvious. The reality is the greatest reward is the smallest risk: Join a nullsec Alliance and then just bot-farm your day away with their sov array generated freebie sites until you have all the ISK in the world. The smallest reward is mining, which carries the greatest risk because your constantly face being ganked by bored nullbears looking for something to throw their surplus ISK away on. Exactly, if people work together to reduce their risk, you must punitively punish them. Relying on NPC protection should give you the greatest rewards.
Buff freighter EHP, by the way. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Bump Truck
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
177
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:56:00 -
[19] - Quote
I don't claim to have any expertise in this area but here is an attempt.
Basic formula, Value = (Reward*(Probability of Success) - (Assets Risked)*(Probability of Catastrophe)) / Effort
So an example, mining;
In HighSec you mine for an hour in a retriever and refine and sell the minerals, Reward ~ 10 million, Probability of Success ~ 0.95 (basically the only thing that can stop you is getting ganked, maybe you have wardecs, maybe you get suicide ganked), therefore the assets risked are 30 mill (ship + fit), P(Catastrophe) is about 0.05, effort is 0.5 (1 hour, pretty much AFK so I'm calling that 0.5).
Value = (0.95*10 - 30*0.05) / 0.5 = 16 million ISK per effort hour
Note this is more than you actually receive in an hour but I'm assuming ever hour of real time you really do half an hour of effort.
So that's pretty good.
In Nullsec the rewards are basically the same (the ores are worth the same). The probability of success is lower, any neut in system can shut you down. Anyone who comes across you can kill you, neuts or awoxers, there's rats to be tanked or killed. Then you have the effort of moving the products to a refining POS which you have set up and kept running, which cuts into the rewards. Then there's the risk of an enemy fleet attacking your space and a CTA. There's also the risk you'll lose your sov and your retriever will be trapped in a station you can no longer access. Also you have to to be vigilant the whole hour with at least 2 accounts.
It works out something like
Value = (0.7*10 - 30*0.1) / 2.5 = 1.6 Million ISK per effort hour.
Now maybe my calculations are harsh, we'd need some stats on numbers of ships ganked, chances of mining mission success (maybe what quantity of ore a miner mines based on number of hours flying the mining barge) etc.
This analysis can be done with any activity but you get the point, increasing the amount of effort and risk even a bit makes the activity radically less appealing.
I think this is what people are trying to get at with the Risk vs Reward argument, also there are questions of variance to be considered but that is a deeper question.
Hope this helps. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:59:00 -
[20] - Quote
Bump Truck wrote:In Nullsec the rewards are basically the same (the ores are worth the same). The probability of success is lower, any neut in system can shut you down. Anyone who comes across you can kill you, neuts or awoxers, there's rats to be tanked or killed. Then you have the effort of moving the products to a refining POS which you have set up and kept running, which cuts into the rewards. Then there's the risk of an enemy fleet attacking your space and a CTA. There's also the risk you'll lose your sov and your retriever will be trapped in a station you can no longer access. Also you have to to be vigilant the whole hour with at least 2 accounts. But intel channels, blue lists and local ! Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |
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Piugattuk
Lima beans Corp
162
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Posted - 2012.12.25 22:21:00 -
[21] - Quote
Here we go, how many have alts in null supplying mains in hi, you need to add this into your mathematics
Besides nowhere in hi sec can you find bpc's worth billions check prices on that sansha's turd super carrier or those nice frigs worth minimum of 50 bill, then talk about RvR.
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Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 22:25:00 -
[22] - Quote
Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2060
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 22:28:00 -
[23] - Quote
Glathull wrote:Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on. Yeah, highsec needs a modifier to boost its rewards just because ~highsec, high rewards~ Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Torakenat
Space Cowboys United The Irukandji
8
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Posted - 2012.12.25 22:35:00 -
[24] - Quote
RVR varies greatly based purely on you as a player and your corp/alliance if any.
It's impossible to formulate or even speculate how much generally speaking one would make without basing your thought process on the worst case scenario. And by that if you fit that bill as the worst case scenario than I can only hope you're in the corp we are wardec with instead of mine.
So to answer your question if its more lucrative to be in null instead of high sec...it depends. |

Amarra Mandalin
Protocol 52
449
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 22:58:00 -
[25] - Quote
Glathull wrote:Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on.
I think you need to get more fresh air.
This is a game about people. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2062
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:07:00 -
[26] - Quote
Amarra Mandalin wrote:Glathull wrote:Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on. I think you need to get more fresh air. This is a game about people. It's a game driven by NPCs. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 23:10:00 -
[27] - Quote
Okay, so the sense I'm getting is that risk vs. reward is a meaningless phrase that people throw around because it sounds like an argument. But when you try to get people to quantify that argument, no one is interested.
Got it.
Thanks for the clarification and Merry Christmas. |

Elrich Kouvo
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
84
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Posted - 2012.12.25 23:15:00 -
[28] - Quote
Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? Risk V. Reward was fancy marketing propaganda. You coldn't buy ISK then, and it tried to help players understand the reasons why bounties and ore scaled by sec status.
Since then,, CCP has added all kinds of content and changes, as well as players actions that kinda muddle the idea.
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Skylitsa
Viziam Amarr Empire
1
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Posted - 2012.12.25 23:24:00 -
[29] - Quote
Bump Truck wrote: I think this is what people are trying to get at with the Risk vs Reward argument, also there are questions of variance to be considered but that is a deeper question.I don't claim to have any expertise in this area but here is an attempt.
Hope this helps.
risk in null. NULL. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2062
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:24:00 -
[30] - Quote
Elrich Kouvo wrote:Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? Risk V. Reward was fancy marketing propaganda. You coldn't buy ISK then, and it tried to help players understand the reasons why bounties and ore scaled by sec status. Since then,, CCP has added all kinds of content and changes, as well as player's actions that kinda muddle the idea. Damn players, they need to be nerfed. When they try and make use of tools available to them rather than just relying on NPCs, this breaks everything, so we need to break them. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |
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