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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 2 post(s) |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3860
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:45:00 -
[31] - Quote
Weaselior wrote: so does anyone who spends countless hours buying things from buy orders and selling them on sell orders
his technical analysis boils down to station-trading, just with more effort
in other words it's worthless and he's getting the average return from the market he is in
I am sure you know very well how to station trade, if you consider placing 1 order per commodity and then another 15 days later as "spending hours buying things from buy orders and selling them on sell orders".
Also, considering 1 of the funds was based on depreciating Technetium and similar and another on ices (going in free fall to the bottom of the pit), considering 4.05% made in 2 weeks = 8.1% a month.
How many 100B MD investments have been made that delivered 8% a month?
Color me impressed by linking them. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

March rabbit
player corp n1
569
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 07:52:00 -
[32] - Quote
great reading. thanks
one question: "zero sum game". Your description is clear. But why it's name "zero sum game"? |
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ISD LackOfFaith
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
452

|
Posted - 2013.02.27 08:05:00 -
[33] - Quote
Locked for cleanup. ISD LackOfFaith Lieutenant Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs) Interstellar Services Department |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3861
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 08:39:00 -
[34] - Quote
March rabbit wrote:great reading. thanks
one question: "zero sum game". Your description is clear. But why it's name "zero sum game"?
Let's imagine a cake. Regardless of how many try take a slice it's still this cake. Some will get the slice, some wont. Some will get a bigger slice some will get smaller, some will win and some will lose but in the end we still have that one cake.
In markets for every single transaction (there can easily be 100,000 a day on some markets) there is a winner and a loser.
EvE in this and many other regards is less harsh than RL. Even if you buy bad (but not too bad) you can still resell or manufacture for a smaller profit. In RL the margins are razor thin (usually one "tick", that is 0.01 ISK) and wins / losses are amplified by 5-10-50 and even 100 by a feature callled leverage.
Imagine losing in EvE if the RL mechanisms were in place:
- PLEX spread would be 0.01 ISK (you wish, eh? ).
- You buy a PLEX at 500M but after 5 minutes it drops to 498M. In EvE you just lost 2M. In RL you'd just have lost 2 * 50 = 100M. Yes, that's quite a cold, harsh universe we got out there . Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
859
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 13:49:00 -
[35] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Aryth wrote:The example you used, Megacyte, is also a perfect example for why my compatriots look down upon technical analysis so much. To clue you in, those pictured Megacyte spikes were the cabal and to some degree regular goons. The vast majority of which got blown up in Forex at 3300 value as the CCP estimated price adjusted immediately to manipulated value. So this is a perfect example of doing technical analysis on behavior that is beyond the ability for the chart to explain, or even represent properly. You will see the same thing in Zydrine and Nocxium in that same time period.
So the point being, as I have stated before, do not read markets. Make markets. This is EVE, sticking to methods used in the real world when you have such rich tools available to you to play dirty is just shameful.
No, I'll share with you this information. The RL markets are also well manipulated and driven by people who make you and crew look like innocent and harmless puppies. But exactly like for you, their very act of buying and selling creates "tracks" that can be sniffed and followed. Therefore, while you sincerely think your market operations tied to your initiative XYZ are a secret that nobody could ever detect, in the mean time I and those like me make money on it. Because you just *cannot* hide your liquidity entering in the market, you can't even have true iceberg orders in EvE. Also, considering that EvE does not come with short selling, your creating double tops is irrelevant, it's the double bottoms that count. The double tops just scream: "look a big market player started selling so get rid of your own stock". I do understand your "just make the market" point of view but my time to play EvE is really small and sincerely I am so busy with RL trading on 30-ish markets that doing it in EvE now makes me frown and yawn. So I tend to hang in and chat with some recently 2009 returned friends, dump some random T2 stuff I find in hangars and log off. I really really hope you have a more open mind than your colleague. Despite his narrow view, what I write on this forum gets done every single day and is teached. There's even an English thread detailing how to do it. Putting down an unhortodox idea is for people who don't dare to go beyond their comfortable sofa, expecially when there are explicit texts (not mentioning mine) teaching how to do it step by step.
Again, there is no hiding liquidity as we do not hide. Hell, we even flag our orders so you don't even have to probe it to know where we are. We are practically shouting it from the rooftops. Given that mega never came back to market, either in the form of ships, or minerals themselves, I would say the double tops don't "scream" anything. It literally went poof. So all of this is essentially trying to determine the market some other player is making, and being a step behind every step of the way.
I cannot understand all this fascination with "tracks" and "icebergs" when the moves that matter the most are going to require none of that analysis. I only "trade" in markets maybe 10 hours a month total. Granted, we sit and chit chat on jabber incessantly but I don't consider that trading and it is mostly a passive, when you can activity.
As far as RL markets, no, the things we do you don't see in real markets. Are real markets manipulated, sure, but not the ways we are doing it. Some of the stuff we have done would be crimes against humanity in the name of market manipulation. I mean jeeze, how many times have you seen someone blow up 200 oil tankers in the ocean to make oil prices go up. Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |

Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
562
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 13:54:00 -
[36] - Quote
Aryth wrote:I mean jeeze, how many times have you seen someone blow up 200 oil tankers in the ocean to make oil prices go up.
Not often enough.
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Challu
Wishful Desires Inc.
58
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 16:13:00 -
[37] - Quote
Aryth, your point is well taken regarding the items that the Cabal did indeed manipulate. In those cases, technicals would indeed be useless.
However, there are 8000+ items in the eve database. Unless you want to claim that there is manipulation behind the movement of each and every item, and that fluctuations are not basic market forces in play, then it's a little disingenuous pooh-poohing the entire methodology based on a small number of exceptions. For any item with even semi-liquid markets, technicals can be quite helpful.
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Dasola
Rookie Empire Citizens Rookie Empire
155
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 17:38:00 -
[38] - Quote
Hmm looks like i got something to read at work tomorrow. Hopefully i learn something that can make me better trader. Yes im still noob when it comes to mastering the market...  We are Minmatar, Our ship are made of scraps, but look what our scraps can do... |

Dramaticus
Goonswarm Federation
371
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 18:11:00 -
[39] - Quote
Challu wrote:Aryth, your point is well taken regarding the items that the Cabal did indeed manipulate. In those cases, technicals would indeed be useless.
However, there are 8000+ items in the eve database. Unless you want to claim that there is manipulation behind the movement of each and every item, and that fluctuations are not basic market forces in play, then it's a little disingenuous pooh-poohing the entire methodology based on a small number of exceptions. For any item with even semi-liquid markets, technicals can be quite helpful.
If it isn't worth attempting to manipulate it isn't worth trading bring back images |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3863
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 18:39:00 -
[40] - Quote
Aryth wrote: Again, there is no hiding liquidity as we do not hide.
You could play some games if you wanted. If you don't, it's just easier.
Aryth wrote: I would say the double tops don't "scream" anything. It literally went poof. So all of this is essentially trying to determine the market some other player is making, and being a step behind every step of the way.
I cannot understand all this fascination with "tracks" and "icebergs" when the moves that matter the most are going to require none of that analysis. I only "trade" in markets maybe 10 hours a month total. Granted, we sit and chit chat on jabber incessantly but I don't consider that trading and it is mostly a passive, when you can activity.
Here I'll tell you what I always tell to Mynna.
You are fundamentally right on two sides:
As one RL trader I talked with today told me when I tried describing this thing, "ah, so you are using a multi-frame, trend following method". While it's not exact (i.e. it lags very little vs a trend following system), its effect is basically that. Therefore it's indeed a step behind every step of the way. Moreover it WILL perform worse than a perfectly executed Mynna fundamental analysis (see we talk enough about these things) and it WILL perform worse than a well done manipulation.
So you see, I am not deluded about this stuff, I know it's limits fairly well.
So why do I do it? - Because I wanted to see if EvE markets behave simliar than the RL ones. Hence my main analysis thread is called "Experiment". Imagine it being a thesis. It's a testament to the realism of EvE markets, there had to be someone proving that the CCP claims of "realistic markets" were true.
- Because it does not require 10 hours a month, maybe 1.
- Because I don't care about learning the EvE markets driving factors enough (besides some I have a personal interest of). I know Mynna and probably you too get all happy when you find just another profitable "hidden gem". I don't take the same feeling for some reason so I lack of the motivation to do your work. You are into the game and live for your alliance goals, to me EvE is a trading playground, where I can play with "Demo money" but with a game setting which I find fun.
- Due to the above, I don't even try amassing insane wealth (I don't even know if my NAV got to so little as 200B so far, it's just... irrelevant to me) nor I analyze the markets a lot. I am truly "casual", I am not commited into moving markets or inventing the new Forex trick. I log in, some days I get the urge to trade, I slap down 2-3 quick charts, place 2-3 buy orders and I am done maybe for 3 months till the next urge. I cannot be arsed pouring in effort. Like me, there are others. Like me they started with "The Slow Sell System for Lazy Marketeers" just to show you the kind of mindset involved. People who don't care to get e-rich quick, who don't have a "mission". I am fairly sure we are closer mindset to those who put zillions on Grendell's 2% bonds than hyperactive station traders.
- Last but not least, to me this playground is training for RL trading and you know the average Joe is not going to RL trade by manipulating markets but by learning a "normal" trading method so I just do it.
Aryth wrote: As far as RL markets, no, the things we do you don't see in real markets. Are real markets manipulated, sure, but not the ways we are doing it. Some of the stuff we have done would be crimes against humanity in the name of market manipulation. I mean jeeze, how many times have you seen someone blow up 200 oil tankers in the ocean to make oil prices go up.
You have a rosy vision of what happens in RL finance. LIBOR manipulation anyone? Does that ring you a bell? Buying 200 oil tankers and keeping them parked for months in a bay to make price rise? Done that. It's not like blowing them up but see it almost gets to your example. Hoard up cereals and similar to make prices rise, while seeing African childrens DIE because of it? Have a nation create a tax to raise $5 billion and making that tax paid by the poor and pensioners to bail out a completely corrupt bank? Done, the money is going to be given to that bank in the next month or so. In my nation there is more than 1 small industry enterpreneur suiciding PER DAY because banks are playing games with them, taking their homes and sheds: the work of a lifetime gone in a day.
Pretty please don't EVER compare yourselves with the vile bas****ds literally ruining lives when not downright killing people in RL.
I'll leave this here. The person who years ago predicted and wrote in her infamous Black Book how her financial invention would bring revolts and death in Northen Africa now is at work again. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Diesel Phumes
State Protectorate Caldari State
18
|
Posted - 2013.02.28 13:16:00 -
[41] - Quote
Great contribution to the community. |

Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
859
|
Posted - 2013.02.28 16:12:00 -
[42] - Quote
This seems to boil down to two main kinds of EVE finance person. Either you are the type that maybe plays solo, probably just does margin/spec and some light manipulation and maybe some arbitrage... OR you are someone that does all that as a smaller part of a deeper game that adds on force, and breaking mechanics, and purposely moving parts of the economy to further some other goal.
My point is, if you are someone that can understand all the latter parts, why not do those too. Leave the analysis for those that are incapable of playing the deeper game for whatever reason, ISK/knowledge/community.
EVE has few enough people in it playing the meta finance game at all. That is where the all the really fun is. Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |

Syds Sinclair
Aliastra Gallente Federation
52
|
Posted - 2013.02.28 17:02:00 -
[43] - Quote
..Don't have much to say about your little candy land eve manipulation ploys compared to the real life examples VV gave you? |

Lord Zim
2296
|
Posted - 2013.02.28 17:15:00 -
[44] - Quote
Syds Sinclair wrote:..Don't have much to say about your little candy land eve manipulation ploys compared to the real life examples VV gave you? EVE != real life. HTH. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3871
|
Posted - 2013.02.28 17:46:00 -
[45] - Quote
Aryth wrote: EVE has few enough people in it playing the meta finance game at all. That is where the all the really fun is.
Aryth,
I'd love to be part of something grand like you do, but for a long list of reasons I can't commit into EvE at all, since autumn of 2009. I.e. today I wanted to play at least a bit after dinner, but no, this morning they slammed me a RL trading web meeting due past dinner and I won't be able to do anything.
I miss EvE, the played EvE, where I could even actually *use* the ISK I make. Not a lot of incentive analyzing, manipulating markets and generally making ISK that I just loan away.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Syds Sinclair
Aliastra Gallente Federation
52
|
Posted - 2013.02.28 22:52:00 -
[46] - Quote
Aryth wrote:
As far as RL markets, no, the things we do you don't see in real markets. Are real markets manipulated, sure, but not the ways we are doing it. Some of the stuff we have done would be crimes against humanity in the name of market manipulation. I mean jeeze, how many times have you seen someone blow up 200 oil tankers in the ocean to make oil prices go up.
..Too funny. Oh yes Aryth, you mean old Goons commit crimes against humanity that real life market engineers just can't compete with!
You guys are really evil! |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3876
|
Posted - 2013.03.01 01:20:00 -
[47] - Quote
Thanks to the feedback I received, I have added a much more newbie friendly couple of sections before the "though meat" that made the previous iteration.
Have a nice reading! Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
859
|
Posted - 2013.03.01 15:28:00 -
[48] - Quote
Syds Sinclair wrote:Aryth wrote:
As far as RL markets, no, the things we do you don't see in real markets. Are real markets manipulated, sure, but not the ways we are doing it. Some of the stuff we have done would be crimes against humanity in the name of market manipulation. I mean jeeze, how many times have you seen someone blow up 200 oil tankers in the ocean to make oil prices go up.
..Too funny. Oh yes Aryth, you mean old Goons commit crimes against humanity that real life market engineers just can't compete with! You guys are really evil!
You seem to be missing the critical point. The examples he listed are of people making things scarce or too expensive for people and it resulting in suffering. Great, there is half the equation.
The part people seem to miss, it is the direct application of force that when added to the equation that makes it magical and only in EVE.
So if a trader bought up all the grain, then proceeded to shoot every ship owner going into Africa, ok sure. To take it a step further (and what we have done in EVE), what if you were then to blockade the major financial and shipping centers, blow up everyone driving a nice car, loot their bodies, then laugh and the government run highlight reels on the nightly news.
Yeah, that isn't possible in RL from a trader perspective. Warlord in war? Maybe, but not a trader. Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3884
|
Posted - 2013.03.01 18:15:00 -
[49] - Quote
Aryth wrote: Yeah, that isn't possible in RL from a trader perspective. Warlord in war? Maybe, but not a trader.
It's traders (using delivery contracts) that can forcibly keep commodities stocked out of reach to make certain markets cornered and cause the understandable consequences.
Just to give a little idea, those wars in North Africa come from an increase in certain base foods price by 4% or so. Not 40%, just 4. This immediately caused a feeding alimentation shortage, populations started starving while they requests for help were totally ignored by their dictators / "kings" or whatever you want to call those guys who steal billions from their poor nation and fill a Switzerland cyphered account registered to their family.
About trading, diamonds are traded and actually "blood diamonds" are those also used in speculation. They come from war zones, in wars also started / fueled / paid by certain nice companies like De Beers.
I am sad to say that you may apply forceful control and ships explosions but the "main concepts" of screwing up the next guy / population with no possible retaliation are already an invented reality. 
Believe me, I wish I was wrong and this was just an EvE feature. Sure an assault rifle sounds less "sci-fi" than a spaceship but it kills just fine. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
859
|
Posted - 2013.03.01 23:13:00 -
[50] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Aryth wrote: Yeah, that isn't possible in RL from a trader perspective. Warlord in war? Maybe, but not a trader.
It's traders (using delivery contracts) that can forcibly keep commodities stocked out of reach to make certain markets cornered and cause the understandable consequences. Just to give a little idea, those wars in North Africa come from an increase in certain base foods price by 4% or so. Not 40%, just 4. This immediately caused a feeding alimentation shortage, populations started starving while they requests for help were totally ignored by their dictators / "kings" or whatever you want to call those guys who steal billions from their poor nation and fill a Switzerland cyphered account registered to their family. About trading, diamonds are traded and actually "blood diamonds" are those also used in speculation. They come from war zones, in wars also started / fueled / paid by certain nice companies like De Beers. I am sad to say that you may apply forceful control and ships explosions but the "main concepts" of screwing up the next guy / population with no possible retaliation are already an invented reality.  Believe me, I wish I was wrong and this was just an EvE feature. Sure an assault rifle sounds less "sci-fi" than a spaceship but it kills just fine.
But the people with the assault rifles are not the traders. That is the distinction. In EVE, you can be both. That is where the grand galaxy spanning implications come in. Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |

Syds Sinclair
Aliastra Gallente Federation
52
|
Posted - 2013.03.02 00:20:00 -
[51] - Quote
..On the contrary Aryth, the distinction is that you are trying to save face. How is it possible that VV proved a Goon Economic Cabal Member wrong?!
Sure, you meant all along that the great crimes against humanity that you and your cohorts are doing are so special because you are making the market AND pulling the trigger. Sure.
Your post is the product of a fully confident pilot who overextends and makes a bold claim that he didn't fully think through.
All subsequent posts are that same pilot who is too proud to admit his folly.
Yes, Aryth, save face via semantics. |

Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
859
|
Posted - 2013.03.02 15:39:00 -
[52] - Quote
Syds Sinclair wrote:..On the contrary Aryth, the distinction is that you are trying to save face. How is it possible that VV proved a Goon Economic Cabal Member wrong?!
Sure, you meant all along that the great crimes against humanity that you and your cohorts are doing are so special because you are making the market AND pulling the trigger. Sure.
Your post is the product of a fully confident pilot who overextends and makes a bold claim that he didn't fully think through.
All subsequent posts are that same pilot who is too proud to admit his folly.
Yes, Aryth, save face via semantics.
If you are going to troll. Put some thought into it at least. We do come from a forum full of them. That is some shameful trolling. Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |

Syds Sinclair
Aliastra Gallente Federation
52
|
Posted - 2013.03.02 15:56:00 -
[53] - Quote
..Aryth, your diminishing prose and the total drop off of Goonswarm activity in this VV thread speaks volumes.
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YuuKnow
Boom-Town
669
|
Posted - 2013.03.02 16:09:00 -
[54] - Quote
My Antivirus software alarmed on the 'BabyPips' website that you linked on the first page.
yk |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3895
|
Posted - 2013.03.02 18:11:00 -
[55] - Quote
YuuKnow wrote:My Antivirus software alarmed on the 'BabyPips' website that you linked on the first page.
yk
Yes they suffered and repaired a security breach not long ago, this is probably why you get a warning. But for what they have said, it was an attempt at reading the stored cyphered user names and passwords not to put trojans. Just don't register on the website if you don't trust them to be able and avoid another breach. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Syds Sinclair
Alchemist Anonymous
52
|
Posted - 2013.03.03 06:35:00 -
[56] - Quote
..AND lack of Aryth/Goonswarm Economic Cabal activity.
How long can this go on for? |

Jaq Royale
State War Academy Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.03.10 19:42:00 -
[57] - Quote
Lovely. Seriously, thank you. |
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CCP Eterne
C C P C C P Alliance
2230

|
Posted - 2013.03.12 14:29:00 -
[58] - Quote
I've removed some trolling from this thread. New Eden Community Representative GÇ+ New Eden Illuminati GÇ+ Fiction Adept
@CCP_Eterne GÇ+ @EVE_LiveEvents |
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Kara Books
Deal with IT.
441
|
Posted - 2013.03.12 18:01:00 -
[59] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:YuuKnow wrote:My Antivirus software alarmed on the 'BabyPips' website that you linked on the first page.
yk Yes they suffered and repaired a security breach not long ago, this is probably why you get a warning. But for what they have said, it was an attempt at reading the stored cyphered user names and passwords not to put trojans. Just don't register on the website if you don't trust them to be able and avoid another breach.
Interesting, didn't know that, I wounder exactly what kind of information is really in these records they keep.
The forex markets are a dark world, very similar to the actual market place here in EvE, a ton of very bad brokers with allot of money at stake and lots of user review spam to place.
It makes me wounder, its as if 1 person owns 30-60 of the legit ones, another one owns 5-6 legit decent ones and the 3rd owns the 300-400 scam versions registered in who knows where while the servers are all in Ukraine, in the meantime they all sit at a table every weekend and have a few beers and laughs, Deja'vue. |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3948
|
Posted - 2013.03.12 18:21:00 -
[60] - Quote
Kara Books wrote: Interesting, didn't know that, I wounder exactly what kind of information is really in these records they keep.
The forex markets are a dark world, very similar to the actual market place here in EvE, a ton of very bad brokers with allot of money at stake and lots of user review spam to place.
No, it's simpler. These days a direct breach of a decently protected system is hard and brute force passwords guessing became harder as authentication procedures often demand the users to use complex passwords etc. etc.
So hackers "harvest" less known or less secured websites and MMOs for millions of user names, email addresses and passwords. Some expecially huge breaches involved WoW, Yahoo and Twitter. They even farmed them off EvE, with social engineering on these forums. Finally they farmed millions of credentials with cookies exploits (Yahoo, Twitter). When a new product launches, hackers know that the users will reuse the same credentials all the time and thus they attempt automated log ons with those millions credentials they gathered. The results are huge. Thousands of day 1 compromised and converted to botting accounts in GW2 because the credentials matched with old WoW breached accounts. GW2 had to reset everybody's passwords to stop the rain. Thousands of Paypal / SW:Tor accounts breached with farmed emails + passwords (to the point SW:Tor at April 2 will stop accepting emails as log in credentials). Most MMOs and other sites these days will also check what country / newtwork IP branch they get log in requests from and react in case it won't match (see EvE's asking for your account's character name).
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
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