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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3852
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 03:00:00 -
[1] - Quote
After 2 days of work I have finally finished writing down an heavily illustrated resource that I believe would be very interesting for those who love to study the markets.
There you'll see various things, from exchanges features to spread, from supply and demand to a description of what candle bars are, what EvE in game chart bars are and their basic properties and much more.
There's even a section about "coin toss trading", recently "debated" in a now locked thread, including an example.
I hope you'll like it. 
Linkage. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Ethan Freeman
New Eden Trade Group
1
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 03:06:00 -
[2] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:After 2 days of work I have finally finished writing down an heavily illustrated resource that I believe would be very interesting for those who love to study the markets. There you'll see various things, from exchanges features to spread, from supply and demand to a description of what candle bars are, what EvE in game chart bars are and their basic properties and much more. There's even a section about "coin toss trading", recently "debated" in a now locked thread, including an example. I hope you'll like it. Linkage.
Reading |

Gordena Gecko
Greed Ltd.
6
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 03:28:00 -
[3] - Quote
Nice read!
On page 3 picture ferrofluid orders there is a minor mistake, i think it should say highest buy order, not highest sell order at the arrow pointing to the highest buyorder |

Samroski
Games Inc.
145
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 04:46:00 -
[4] - Quote
Thanks VV. Finally learned about those candle graphs :)
I note your explanation of how random/coin toss trading leads to loss (i.e. the market fees cause the loss, not the random nature of the trade).
Love the 2nd last graph (page 5, fear and greed). Funny, as it is true! I've been there at all those highs and lows, unfortunately more frequently as a small player :) Happiness is a warm gun. |

Emma d'Acques
Vault Asset Management
29
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 06:49:00 -
[5] - Quote
Damn you VV, now my boss will complain even more about how unproductive I am  I'm not totally useless, I can be used as a bad example. |

Saveritrader
Sav Trading Invictus Void
22
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 10:37:00 -
[6] - Quote
Nice read! Really enjoyed it, and even picked up on a couple of things I didn't think about in that way before. |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3853
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 10:54:00 -
[7] - Quote
Gordena Gecko wrote:Nice read!
On page 3 picture ferrofluid orders there is a minor mistake, i think it should say highest buy order, not highest sell order at the arrow pointing to the highest buyorder
Thank you for your feedback, I have corrected the typo. Happens when you finish writing at 4am (I live in GMT +1).
Samroski wrote:Thanks VV. Finally learned about those candle graphs :)
I note your explanation of how random/coin toss trading leads to loss (i.e. the market fees cause the loss, not the random nature of the trade).
Love the 2nd last graph (page 5, fear and greed). Funny, as it is true! I've been there at all those highs and lows, unfortunately more frequently as a small player :)
The fear and greed chart is exactly the typical dynamic of price. All those "hills" I have drawn happen for real, these are the head and shoulders, the double bottoms and so on. That's why it's important to learn and see them, they tell you the context of the market and so you can understand whether you are going to buy at a best price, at a good price or right before a massive crash.
Now look at the EvE chart in the post, the one with the zoomed in bars. The zoomed portion is a double top, a simple glance to that pin bar I zoomed and described all to the right would tell it was the time to dump your stock before the crash. Furthermore, a two seconds glance to that double top would immediately tell you where price aimed to go. There is no sh!t, price WILL, I underline WILL do its best to go to its target. Some times it will fail, mostly when the patterns happen against the trend (hence the old motto: "the trend is your friend") or when there is a massive support / resistance level blocking them. Otherwise, the market at medium term is an open book. Brownian motion my ass.
About the coin toss: your observation is almost right, it misses a big factor that sadly I just *cannot* figure out how to explain in English so I did not write it.
Basically, the market acts like a collective, intelligent being, it reacts and counters mechanic approaches by using very smart profit dodging strategies against the individual market participants. Despite everything is driven by orders, those orders are statistically subdued to a sort of natural selection. This is why the best of breed orders tend to cluster around certain important levels and this is why the market *uncannily* WILL do its best to take your order and drive it to stop loss. It's not a "brain" but the orders that collectively form a best-fit structure (I know I am probably saying some enormous crap in English, words just don't come to me. If you listen to my trading video (you are susbscribed to my Twitter channel where I post those, right? ) you'll hear how BAD I know English). The best-fit structure packs orders so that they best fill the "empty price space", like bees create hexagonal cells to best use the available volume. This best fit also causes *coincidences* like "fibonacci numbers" (they happen to allow optimal fits) and also to almost always have an order placed right next to yours, that will take you down in the opposite direction.
The above blurb makes sure that despite your coin toss indeed creates a 50% buy or sell "signal", the broker fee plus the adverse statistical orders distribution will make sure your order will be taken, then you will see price performing incredible zig zags (that also happen to best fit the available price space, it's called "price discovery") to literally shake you off. This kills a lot of uninformed traders orders. In their point of view the market will appear like a sentient, evil being purposedly taking them out with a nightmarish efficiency. It is not so, but the whole mechanic is awesome, amazing to witness in first person, and also scary as hell.
(@Trolls: notice the bolded and underlined bit). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3853
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 10:57:00 -
[8] - Quote
Saveritrader wrote:Nice read! Really enjoyed it, and even picked up on a couple of things I didn't think about in that way before.
Yes, I am proud to say that some bits about the EvE charts were never posted before, in the whole 10 years of the game.  Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Minmat Sebtin
House of Sebtin
28
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 11:38:00 -
[9] - Quote
Posting so i'll remember to read tomorrow. Are you an Industrialist who uses large amounts of Construction Components? Looking for ways to reduce costs? Then I can help you! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=174135 |

Alex Grison
Grison Interstellar
161
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 16:52:00 -
[10] - Quote
Are any of the candles edible or flavored? |

Claire Coffee
Coffee Inc
110
|
Posted - 2013.02.25 17:20:00 -
[11] - Quote
I clicked some of those adsense links, since it seem the best way to actually appreciate the knowledge shared :-) DRINK COFFEE Do stupid things Faster with More Energy |

Stigman Zuwadza
Repercussus RAZOR Alliance
96
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 03:50:00 -
[12] - Quote
I can't deny it, reading stuff by VV makes my eyes glaze over, but I do try to read it. 
If (as a noobie) you're looking for a somewhat simple concept to adopt / try from VV's stuff its worth taking a look at the stuff around using the BRN (Big Round Number) concept. Its probably the easiest to digest initially.
I may well of misunderstood what it was all about but prior to reading about this concept I used something similar and VV's guff helped to confirm I was at least on the right track. 
So, try to get past the mind boggling jargon and you'll find some gems in what he talks about.
Great job VV.
Fly safe. o7 Its broken and its been broken for a long time and it'll be broken for some time to come. |

Syds Sinclair
Aliastra Gallente Federation
50
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 05:41:00 -
[13] - Quote
..Thank you VV for taking your time and knowledge and sharing it. A lot of that stuff is over my head, but very interesting read none the less.
Could you make a more in depth post on the fear and greed aspects? |

Samroski
Games Inc.
146
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 05:50:00 -
[14] - Quote
Syds Sinclair wrote:Could you make a more in depth post on the fear and greed aspects? I'm sure you say this in jest...
Happiness is a warm gun. |

Syds Sinclair
Aliastra Gallente Federation
50
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 06:14:00 -
[15] - Quote
..Don't really get your post. But have a nice day! |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3859
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 09:15:00 -
[16] - Quote
I really love your feedback and am open to suggestions!
I do know that I risk using gibberish jargon, that happens because once someone gets accustomed to some job, they start using such job's jargon and acronyms and then outsiders don't understand him any more.
That trading course (don't forget the other chapters!) is aimed at "newbies" so it's my best intention to make it as easy as possible.
Therefore I ask you if you could please tell me what's too difficult, which words or concepts are too hard or confusing.
Thanks in advance. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3859
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 09:21:00 -
[17] - Quote
Stigman Zuwadza wrote:I can't deny it, reading stuff by VV makes my eyes glaze over, but I do try to read it.  If (as a noobie) you're looking for a somewhat simple concept to adopt / try from VV's stuff its worth taking a look at the stuff around using the BRN (Big Round Number) concept. Its probably the easiest to digest initially. I may well of misunderstood what it was all about but prior to reading about this concept I used something similar and VV's guff helped to confirm I was at least on the right track.  So, try to get past the mind boggling jargon and you'll find some gems in what he talks about. Great job VV. Fly safe. o7
Thank you,
Yes big round numbers are easy to spot and to use and actually the top two profitable RL traders I know exclusively buy and sell at those numbers. Not all the BRNs are equally strong but they are all a good starting point.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Emma d'Acques
Vault Asset Management
29
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 09:55:00 -
[18] - Quote
VV, finally got round to reading it in full. Thanks for sharing such information with us, it's all I can say!
I'm now in the process of looking at the other stuff listed on your site, and I believe I'm in forsomething of a learning experience. I'm not totally useless, I can be used as a bad example. |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3859
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 09:59:00 -
[19] - Quote
Emma d'Acques wrote:VV, finally got round to reading it in full. Thanks for sharing such information with us, it's all I can say!
I'm now in the process of looking at the other stuff listed on your site, and I believe I'm in forsomething of a learning experience.
Thank you!
I have a whole website section still unpublished and exclusively about EvE and heavily focused on EvE trading. I hope I'll be able to complete it in a decent time frame. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3860
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 23:31:00 -
[20] - Quote
I have been reading the course up to including this page and indeed I feel there's something missing.
There's something that makes it look like it jumps "into the thick" too fast and too hard.
Since I have read some people here who indeed noticed a difficulty at understanding the article, do you have some suggestions about what you feel it's missing? I can't feel the missing bits because I am too "inside the trade" so I can't get exactly what's too hard, incomplete, or missing.
If you have any suggestions they'd be welcome. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
4575
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:02:00 -
[21] - Quote
laffo after furiously spamming the "report" button in that thread and typing in "make the bad man stop disproving my world view entirely" and begging for isd to make me stop, you move this offsite so you can prevent anyone from seeing it debunked by just linking them directly to the page |

Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
858
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:05:00 -
[22] - Quote
The example you used, Megacyte, is also a perfect example for why my compatriots look down upon technical analysis so much. To clue you in, those pictured Megacyte spikes were the cabal and to some degree regular goons. The vast majority of which got blown up in Forex at 3300 value as the CCP estimated price adjusted immediately to manipulated value. So this is a perfect example of doing technical analysis on behavior that is beyond the ability for the chart to explain, or even represent properly. You will see the same thing in Zydrine and Nocxium in that same time period.
So the point being, as I have stated before, do not read markets. Make markets. This is EVE, sticking to methods used in the real world when you have such rich tools available to you to play dirty is just shameful.
Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |

Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
4575
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:13:00 -
[23] - Quote
also of course technical analysis is utter bunk
to do technical analysis, follow these steps:
1)draw random lines on graph. give them names 2)flip coin, determine if this thing on the graph means it will go up or down 3)announce that due to [SHAPENAME] the product will go [up/down] 4)wait 5)if you were correct:
- crow about how you got it right, brilliant insight, etc etc
if you were incorrect
- ahh that was not a true [SHAPENAME] it was a false [SHAPENAME]. technical analysis has not failed me, i have failed it.
repeat until you are on a winning streak. the money lost was before you "understood" technical analysis. the money you have made now is because you now understand it |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3860
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:17:00 -
[24] - Quote
Weaselior wrote:laffo after furiously spamming the "report" button in that thread and typing in "make the bad man stop disproving my world view entirely" and begging for isd to make me stop, you move this offsite so you can prevent anyone from seeing it debunked by just linking them directly to the page
Actually it was not me spamming anything, as I had prepared a long post with a number of links I searched to show you were wrong and that made it impossible to post it.
Anyway I am glad my posting makes you so furious, it means my salt is pouring on your wound just fine.  Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
25
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:21:00 -
[25] - Quote
weasil lighten up
he made 4b from 100b using this method, thats huge for market discussions. |

Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
4575
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:23:00 -
[26] - Quote
holy lawl your coinflip trading section boils down to "you lose money based on trading fees"
that is it
there is nothing else in there whatsoever the entire thing is just trading fees |

Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
4575
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:25:00 -
[27] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Weaselior wrote:laffo after furiously spamming the "report" button in that thread and typing in "make the bad man stop disproving my world view entirely" and begging for isd to make me stop, you move this offsite so you can prevent anyone from seeing it debunked by just linking them directly to the page Actually it was not me spamming anything, as I had prepared a long post with a number of links I searched to show you were wrong and that made it impossible to post it. Anyway I am glad my posting makes you so furious, it means my salt is pouring on your wound just fine.  aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahaha
"after i sperged out for five pages and carefully ensured that nobody could possibly counteract it when basic math disproved everything that i use to support my fragile ego, your laughter actually means i have won" |

Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
4575
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:26:00 -
[28] - Quote
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:weasil lighten up
he made 4b from 100b using this method, thats huge for market discussions. so does anyone who spends countless hours buying things from buy orders and selling them on sell orders
his technical analysis boils down to station-trading, just with more effort
in other words it's worthless and he's getting the average return from the market he is in |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3860
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:33:00 -
[29] - Quote
Aryth wrote:The example you used, Megacyte, is also a perfect example for why my compatriots look down upon technical analysis so much. To clue you in, those pictured Megacyte spikes were the cabal and to some degree regular goons. The vast majority of which got blown up in Forex at 3300 value as the CCP estimated price adjusted immediately to manipulated value. So this is a perfect example of doing technical analysis on behavior that is beyond the ability for the chart to explain, or even represent properly. You will see the same thing in Zydrine and Nocxium in that same time period.
So the point being, as I have stated before, do not read markets. Make markets. This is EVE, sticking to methods used in the real world when you have such rich tools available to you to play dirty is just shameful.
No, I'll share with you this information. The RL markets are also well manipulated and driven by people who make you and crew look like innocent and harmless puppies.
But exactly like for you, their very act of buying and selling creates "tracks" that can be sniffed and followed.
Therefore, while you sincerely think your market operations tied to your initiative XYZ are a secret that nobody could ever detect, in the mean time I and those like me make money on it. Because you just *cannot* hide your liquidity entering in the market, you can't even have true iceberg orders in EvE.
Also, considering that EvE does not come with short selling, your creating double tops is irrelevant, it's the double bottoms that count. The double tops just scream: "look a big market player started selling so get rid of your own stock".
I do understand your "just make the market" point of view but my time to play EvE is really small and sincerely I am so busy with RL trading on 30-ish markets that doing it in EvE now makes me frown and yawn. So I tend to hang in and chat with some recently 2009 returned friends, dump some random T2 stuff I find in hangars and log off.
I really really hope you have a more open mind than your colleague. Despite his narrow view, what I write on this forum gets done every single day and is teached. There's even an English thread detailing how to do it.
Putting down an unhortodox idea is for people who don't dare to go beyond their comfortable sofa, expecially when there are explicit texts (not mentioning mine) teaching how to do it step by step.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
25
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:36:00 -
[30] - Quote
Weaselior wrote:Jerry T Pepridge wrote:weasil lighten up
he made 4b from 100b using this method, thats huge for market discussions. so does anyone who spends countless hours buying things from buy orders and selling them on sell orders his technical analysis boils down to station-trading, just with more effort in other words it's worthless and he's getting the average return from the market he is in
nah but the spin is he predicted the price rise (waited for 3-4 years for the right graph, to match his candle holder)
is funny what art said about the megacyte "double shoulder" being a good thing, i chose to beleive that. others will blindy follow vv coz you have goonswarm in u name.
4b from 100b using that method. then when i called him out on it, he compared himself to others saying **** profits are normal.
here read
poker has more of a method than that crap |
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