oh and yea, investing minerals right now is probably a rather bad idea.

Well minerals could go up, while the minerals/m^3 of nullsec ore is going up,

huh?

sure minerals could go up, why not. But then it would be the same thing to say the water might drain away again after your ship just rammed an iceberg with full throttle.

somewhen in the future sure, prices might go up, but right now they are sinking like a stone, and with the coming changes I'm affraid its not getting better.

If Ice prices go up high enough, 0.0 miners start mining ice instead of ore. If they do that, the increased minerals in the changed 0.0 ore wont actually result in more minerals entering the market. You would also see more miners chasing the despawning highsec ice, rather then mining ore..

why?

phew, sounds a bit like wish-thinking to me tbh. with the coming changes I see rather more ppl mining ore instead of ice.

Well minerals could go up, while the minerals/m^3 of nullsec ore is going up, increasing isotope prices may cause enough miners to harvest ice that there is still a net reduction in mineral supply. Very speculative, but not illogical.

Just to give you some background I recently sunk a lot of isk into a few items speculating on the changes coming up, these items il give you in percentage of portfolio but I will say a number of billion have been invested. Zydrine 25%, Isotopes 15%, fuel blocks 15%, moon goo that will be used in new composites and intermediates 25% and lastly t1 BS hulls in the hope of tiericide pushing prices up and some mining hulls cough cough venture 20% as I assume a lot of people will want to do mining with the changes coming. Things have been looking promising with the way ice prices are ramping up and I cant imagine this changing before the patch drops and we actually see how hard/easy it is to mine the ice. Im kinda thinking the zydrine may have been a bad call though..since I bought in prices have been dropping a little. You guys think minerals in general are a bad bet right now? Im also seeing some t1 bs hull prices dropping GÇô is this because of the mineral prices looking set to drop hulls will be cheaper to produce?.. i want some advice on what i should dump before taking too big a loss, feel free to pm me or evemail or post here and i realise it is all speculatory

The other thing to consider is the reason behind CCP increasing the low end minerals in 0.0 ores: They want people to be building more stuff in 0.0 rather than having to take everything to high sec.

If that does actually happen then you might see some of the high-end ores becoming a little more scarce in high sec.

In either case, low-ends look certain to decrease in price.


disclaimer: No I haven't invested off the back of this, it's waaaay too speculative. I'm mostly just interested to see what happens :)

The other thing to consider is the reason behind CCP increasing the low end minerals in 0.0 ores: They want people to be building more stuff in 0.0 rather than having to take everything to high sec.

If that does actually happen then you might see some of the high-end ores becoming a little more scarce in high sec.

In either case, low-ends look certain to decrease in price.


disclaimer: No I haven't invested off the back of this, it's waaaay too speculative. I'm mostly just interested to see what happens :)

Can we infer from this that if one is to believe minerals are heading south T1 BS hulls will too even with tiericide?

The ice belts are starting to fill up already. The minerals buy should pay off soon

You're reading it wrong. Highsec will only spawn enough ice to meet 80% of the whole universe's demand. It will spawn roughly 800% of what it needs to meet Highsec's demand.

Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.

While highsec uses less than 15% of the isotopes in EVE.

if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4



So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk

Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4



So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk

What if they schedule their ice mining ops in hisec and deplete the high sec belts while ganking any other miners. That way they not only get ice for themselves, but they prevent their enemies from obtaining ice on the market at cheap prices. The thing that people don't see is that ice will become a strategic material that it never was before. It wouldn't really matter if hisec ice supplied 120% of demand, once you put a limit on it it becomes a whole new ball game.

A subtle point.

Right now 98.4% of ALL ICE is mined in highsec, with no word as to actual demand for the resulting products.

Post-patch, a maximum of 80% of DEMAND will be supplied by highsec.

Keep in mind that in another thread, Fozzie said that the supply of ice right now is so high as to be effectively infinite, though to be fair it wasn't clear if he meant the available supply or the mined supply. Still, "98.4% of all ice mined" and "80% of supply met" are not comparing equivalent numbers.

I'm pretty sure CCP Fozzie has based these numbers on the high sec hidden ice belts being mined 5x per day. Yet they respawn 4 hours after being depleted. So I wonder if some will be cleared more than 5x per day, meaning high sec could supply more than 80% of Isotopes.

No, the non-high sec folks currently mine 1.4% of Isotopes in Eve. After patch they will need to mine 20% of Isotopes in Eve. This means they will need to mine over 10x more Isotopes than they currently do.

I'm pretty sure CCP Fozzie has based these numbers on the high sec hidden ice belts being mined 5x per day. Yet they respawn 4 hours after being depleted. So I wonder if some will be cleared more than 5x per day, meaning high sec could supply more than 80% of Isotopes.

As to getting a sixth spawn, it is mathematically possible if you mine every spawn in 48 minutes or less - realistically, more like 40 minutes or less to leave time to mine the sixth one. However, the absolute minimum pilot count to mine a site that quickly is 56 - one fully skilled orca pilot with mindlinks, plus 55 fully skilled hulk pilots with 5% mining implants. Every single site across Empire being mined out in full six times a day this way would thus require a minimum of 5432 pilots on each and every time the belts respawned.

Not something that can be predicted IMHO. But that type of economic warfare in the the game-verse would make the economics of Eve more dynamic. Competition over resource control is an important catalyst for conflict is probably what is intended and welcome.

Thought that kindof stuff can happen now. Doesn't need to wait for the patch.

I don't think my sig was politically incorrect or anti-semetic before

A subtle point.

Right now 98.4% of ALL ICE is mined in highsec, with no word as to actual demand for the resulting products.

Post-patch, a maximum of 80% of DEMAND will be supplied by highsec.

Keep in mind that in another thread, Fozzie said that the supply of ice right now is so high as to be effectively infinite, though to be fair it wasn't clear if he meant the available supply or the mined supply. Still, "98.4% of all ice mined" and "80% of supply met" are not comparing equivalent numbers.

YEPPERZ ICE belts are definitely begining to get get crowded! So crowded you may want to look into purchasing the ORE Faction ICE harvestors I put up for sale in Jita that increase your range & make bumping that much more difficult!

Also once Odyssy hits & ICE starts depleteing faster then an ice cube in hell these ORE Faction harvetors will give you an edge in fast draining the next ICE slab thats just out of reach to the poor noobs that don't have the boosted range you'll have!

The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)

I would just like to point out that ice in high sec will cover 80% of "current" demand. But as ice prices increase the demand will decrease (basic demand supply curve), so at the end we might see that high sec ice minning will be sufficient to cover the new demand (at higher prices of course). The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)

I don't think my sig was politically incorrect or anti-semetic before

That's what I have told in another thread, but they won't believe me.

THe question is 2,500 ice blocks going to be from one big block or 50 different "astroids", becasue if they are there is going to be more interactivity required. Also twice the pull rate may make sense for Ice farming beyond the 20+ ship one man shops, finally. Grabbing a hour worth for 10 + million while doing something on an alt, may be worth doing ,the old return and farming rate was jsut awful (except to the mass AFK collective).

THe question is 2,500 ice blocks going to be from one big block or 50 different "astroids", becasue if they are there is going to be more interactivity required. Also twice the pull rate may make sense for Ice farming beyond the 20+ ship one man shops, finally. Grabbing a hour worth for 10 + million while doing something on an alt, may be worth doing ,the old return and farming rate was jsut awful (except to the mass AFK collective).

The numbers below might not represent the "true" numbers, they are just there to ease the demonstration of the idea.

It is all about oppurtunity cost. Let us assume that the price of ice doubles and now you can make 15m an hour ice minning (I won't even consider the hauling costs, even if you own the freighter it is not free). Now remember ratting in null sec won't be harder than ice minning, press f1. So to actually to have null ice minning as a viable option it should make in an hour at least as much as the next option, which is of course ratting. In this case it will not be a viable option (for the common sense users of course)

On the other hand let us assumes it quadruples in price. Now you will be making 30m an hour which is maybe to some people as good as ratting, now it becomes a viable option. I dont want to go all technical in an eve forum but it will all actually depend on the elasticity of the ice demand curve. If it is high and a little increase in price will make a lot more people use less ice (carebears with manufacting poses that make little profit for example), then null sec ice minning won't be viable. If is low and people will still demand ice (relatively) at the higher prices then we will see ice minning in null sec (and new bot programs that know how to hit the scan and warp to the anamoly) I hope that was clear enough.

Disclaimer: we are talking about eve and we see a lot of people with the I mine it so it is free mentality, but we are only discussing its viability here from a common sense perspective.

Quadruple 15 is not 30, i cannot agree with any other words after this.

Some pilots seem to think the doubling of ice harvester cycle speed will be some sort of "silver bullet" in their favour.

It will be interesting to see how that works out for them given the upcoming changes in game mechanics and how "competitive" more and more pilots will be as the price of ice rises higher and higher.

Fun times.