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Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54526
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Posted - 2013.08.27 03:12:00 -
[1] - Quote
Im not getting drawn into a debate on this as doing this via my phone would take forever.
But in a nutshell:
This is all pants on head crazy. From a military and financial standpoint.
From an Israeli standpoint bar the nutters who wont fight anyway this is all nuts. Dont interfere in a civil war especially with heart eating / christian / alawite beheading jihadi rebels. Unless there will be classic USAF accuracy on friendlies *ahem* 2 birds 1 stone as it were.
Im wondering how USA/UK/France will react to possible casualties / hostage crises. The syrians have S300 SAMs and while the IAF travel for this kind of sortie this quite different than American aerial doctrine.
Could be wrong on that, but when i was in the IDF thats why a lot of yanks came for instruction with the IAF. Im just a tread head.
Anyone got any family / friends in the forces? Hows the combat fatigue looking? "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54604
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Posted - 2013.08.27 08:04:00 -
[2] - Quote
Grimpak wrote:oh ****, there goes the safeguard. surprisingly, it comes from Saudi Arabia tho.
Not really. Weakening Syria weakens Iran by proxy. Saudi and Iran are in their own mini cold war over control of the persian gulf (or arabian gulf as arab nations call it) and a holier than thou religious war for temporal power.
They sit back and sing Onward Christian Soldiers and reap the benefits.
Any strike will send oil up due to possible unknowns. (Read Iran)
Ive been buying up oil futures for months on this reason. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54709
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Posted - 2013.08.27 12:46:00 -
[3] - Quote
Like i said i served in an armoured brigade so my knowledge of aerial matters is limited. But from my interaction with IAF officers in the mess was that the US tends to go for the multi-pronged approach with various sources of attack and basically overwhelm the enemy. While Israel which lacks the punch of the USAF goes for under the radar surgical strikes which are fast and as quiet as possible. Vis a vis the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007 (that publicly even shocked washington in public at least) or ****** in the 80s. Or the recent weapons shipments to Syria.
It wasnt a criticism of the American air force, just an observation from what IAF officers have told me and a few of the serving US crews who came over. They tended to be put through their paces well by the IAF teams who did this sort of things for a living and often finish with a hell of a lot of respect for their Israeli counterparts.
Either way, I'd prefer everyone to stay out of this. God knows what Hezbollah and the IRGC will do in Lebanon and the Persian gulf. And as someone who has a lot of family and friends in Northern Israel id rather not find out. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54709
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Posted - 2013.08.27 12:49:00 -
[4] - Quote
Alpheias wrote:Snagletooth Johnson wrote:Alpheias wrote:Graygor wrote:
Ive been buying up oil futures for months on this reason.
You are aware that you are profiteering from a war? Basically saying "I am feasting on the cadavers of dead Syrians". The best cadavers are the profitable ones. but seriously, buying stock isn't war profiteering. Buying up all the grain, then waiting until the government finally pays you 10x it's worth is war profiteering. Sure. And buying stock, looking to profit, when the Syrian civil has been going for two years and counting, where thousands have lost their lives is just ******* dandy?
So do all the pension schemes etc and other investment funds which take care of millions of people in the west. They follow the money and buy low sell high just like private individuals. Therefore pension funds could be said to be blood money.
Only way to not make money off anothers suffering if to basically do everything yourself and go on a subsistence living.
Im not trying to justify it, but thats how the world works. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54713
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Posted - 2013.08.27 13:02:00 -
[5] - Quote
First of all, oil has very little to do with Syria overall. Its based off unknowns regarding Iran for the most part based on how they might react to a US strike and the threat to tankers in the gulf as Iran has threatened to close the straits of Hormuz multiple times should they be drawn into a conflict in the USA.
It all revolves around fear. The peak oil times of 2007/08 had nothing to do with conflict, it was rampant speculation based on fear. The same way everything works.
And buying oil futures is based on my clients needs. You may as well go and rail at all those involved in the financial sectors who play eve. The world isnt a nice place.
Im not profiteering from Syria. I dont like the death and in a civil war both sides lose. But I still feel its not enough reason for western powers to be involved. According to polls in the states theres only a 9-12% backing for an invasion of Syria. Hardly mass support is it? Id imagine Europe feels the same.
The Saudis and Jordanians have lots of pricey toys, they should try using them for once rather than cheering onward christian soldier like they have been since the first gulf war. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54722
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Posted - 2013.08.27 13:10:00 -
[6] - Quote
Astenion wrote:Graygor wrote:Like i said i served in an armoured brigade so my knowledge of aerial matters is limited. But from my interaction with IAF officers in the mess was that the US tends to go for the multi-pronged approach with various sources of attack and basically overwhelm the enemy. While Israel which lacks the punch of the USAF goes for under the radar surgical strikes which are fast and as quiet as possible. Vis a vis the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007 (that publicly even shocked washington in public at least) or ****** in the 80s. Or the recent weapons shipments to Syria.
It wasnt a criticism of the American air force, just an observation from what IAF officers have told me and a few of the serving US crews who came over. They tended to be put through their paces well by the IAF teams who did this sort of things for a living and often finish with a hell of a lot of respect for their Israeli counterparts.
Either way, I'd prefer everyone to stay out of this. God knows what Hezbollah and the IRGC will do in Lebanon and the Persian gulf. And as someone who has a lot of family and friends in Northern Israel id rather not find out. Ah, it's clear now. Your original post made it sound like you were armchair general-ing USAF employment doctrine. Hope I wasn't too harsh.
The former dictator of Iraq is blanked??? Come on!
I figured you were ex USAF whod cache'd out and if memory serves are living in Italy now (if thats right... pretty sure it was you who went on at length about pizza a few months back, forgive me if im wrong). So i figured you were just giving me the benefit of your experience which if you are ex USAF would be greater than mine.
And in regards to armchair generalling, nope, 5 years in the IDF in an arrmoured brigade in the north. 2 active and 3 reserve due to being wounded while on active service. Kind of worried now about call ups. We've been having notices emailed to us every few days to stand by. Keeps you on edge. Mrs has only just left the IDF Medical Corps and got the same notice as me. So our bags are packed along with the Israeli guys in my office. We get the notice we're on the first plane out to a friendly local country and find out way back from there.
I know that in event of the guano hitting the fan that the IAF will be the front edge but the armour will be right behind it if there is a chemical attack on Haifa or TA or Jerusalem.
God knows what will happen then.
I doubt the USA can bribe Bibi to keep quiet like they did in the 90s when the Iraqis were firing scuds en masse to provoke a response. Not with Bennet in the cabinet. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54730
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Posted - 2013.08.27 13:17:00 -
[7] - Quote
Alpheias wrote:My sincerest apologies, Graygor. Your initial comment about investing in oil stock made it sound like you were looking to make money off the war in Syria and it literally made me see red.
Believe me, if i ever become like a Wall Street shark ill be blowing my own brains out.
I can understand your disgust with war profiteers. I have the same feeling about the bastards in Israel who are hoarding ABC kits and causing a shortage which is beyond sickening.
I'm actually one of the nice people who plays eve years of being rocketed, bombed and getting sniped at made me a carebear in eve and out. Ive had enough of RL pvp thank you.
Although market pvp in RL and Eve is all fair game. 
Im an analyst by trade. So i have to study this crap. One of the negatives of being an analyst (not a financial one, i study RL events and their impacts) is that if you arent a dyed in the wool realist you just cant hack it.
I may come off as unfeeling but if you cant shield yourself where can you draw the line? You'd just end up crying the whole time. People who pride ignorance of the fact is no excuse, least I can say I know the nature of the beast and accept it.
Thats not leveled at you. Just those who think the world is all fine and dandy when it patently isnt. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54731
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Posted - 2013.08.27 13:34:00 -
[8] - Quote
Aye. Im just wondering what the US plans for Syria are calling for.
I hope to gods its just a case of neutralising the chemical stockpiles and launchers and not a Libya where NATO basically handed AQM and the MB the country on a silver platter and fought the war for them.
But then again exit strategies arent exactly the wests or Russias strong point. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54734
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Posted - 2013.08.27 13:40:00 -
[9] - Quote
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:CNN Headline: 'Syria is not easy to swallow' Yeah. It'd be like a really large, dusty mint or something 
Might need a quite a big glass of water to go along with it for sure.
*cue old man saying "thats nothing, my medicine is the size of Russia!"* "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54765
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Posted - 2013.08.27 14:05:00 -
[10] - Quote
baltec1 wrote:Right now our armed forces are telling our PM that we do not have the ability to take on assad because his cuts mean we have no carriers, few fighterbombers and the army is critcally undermanned.
Best we can do is to use a trafalga class sub to obliterate a few targets but cause no real damage.
Maybe they'll realise that gutting the armed forces wasnt the brightest of ideas afterall.
Im hoping parliament votes it down.
I remember the no to war in 2003 before Iraq, surprised it isnt the same with Syria. I saw on the BBC that the mood is crap in the UK. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |
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Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54777
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Posted - 2013.08.27 14:07:00 -
[11] - Quote
silens vesica wrote:Here be truth and the voice of experience
The opinion from the ME is that Obama and congress have climbed so high into that damned tree that they wont be able to get out.
This could well be a war of "lets have a war as we dont want to lose face."
You know, the Chinese are right. Everything does work in cycles.
Welcome to 1913 everyone. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54777
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Posted - 2013.08.27 14:13:00 -
[12] - Quote
Unrelated but good to know you're still around Silens, havent seen you on the boards for quite a while.
Heres something hot off the press from Jpost about all this.
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Sources-West-tells-opposition-that-Syria-strike-coming-in-days-324411 "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54783
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Posted - 2013.08.27 14:19:00 -
[13] - Quote
Kirjava wrote:I would disagree that Syria has nothing to do with fossil fuels, given that it ispart of a proposed route for natural gas from Qatar/SA to Europe. Given that this would lower prices and increase volume in line with the EU intent to diversify awayy from Russian gas I would think this plays a part in Russias position.
I dont think most people want a war but its obvious we feel we need to do something here, and I'm not sure that the WMDs weren't fired for the purpose of dragging outside part ies into the war. Given how Obama said it was the red line, he has to do something or the US is shown as a paper tiger, much how Russia is generally seen but on a larger scale, strongest of the Great Powers as opposed to the Lone Superpower.
If we genuinely want to solve this and start this week, it nessesitates a ground campaign and occupation. Standoff bombardment like in Libya would crush Assasd and strengthen the rebels relatively and I would be disgusted by NATO if thats the plan. Take out the anti air and the known WMD depots, though a smart move would be to keep them kobile at this point. If SA wants Syria fixed beyond that then it would need to commit its own forces. We already know throuh the cable leaks that they lean heavily on the US to strike at Iran, so they are not some innocents pulled into this.
This could in a worst case be the big one that kicks off the Arab/Persian war again like the Iran/Iraq war if this is mismanaged, and something is going on in the background to distort logic to the current conclusions.
Boots on the ground would result in a 3 way clustershag between NATO forces, Assads armies and those moderate freedom loving rebels who are in no way linked to any terrorist groups, no sir.
Last time something like that happened that i can think of is maybe WW1 with Lawrence stirring up the arab tribes that started this whole bloody mess to begin with. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |

Graygor
1kB Realty 1kB Galactic
54790
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Posted - 2013.08.27 14:26:00 -
[14] - Quote
baltec1 wrote:The UK military is at rock bottom. Most of the highly experienced squaddies have either left or been sacked. The only airpower our fleet has are sea Lynx, merlins and seakings. We do have the best air defence ships in the world but they cant defend an entire fleet alone. Some of our armoured regiments dont even have any tanks.
We have not been this vulnerable for the last 500 years.
12 years of war will do that to an Army.
Its disgusting that they bailed out the bankers and didnt do f all for the army than a paltry pay raise.
Too much is wasted on "procurement tours" (read massive overfunded bloated defence contracts) by whitehall civvies who are basically on a massive bender.
Absolutely sickening. "I think you should buy a new Mayan calendar. Mine has muscle cars on it." --áKenneth O'Hara
"I dont think that can happen, you can see Gray has his invuln field on in his portrait." - Commisar Kate |
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