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Ramone Ormand
The Scope Gallente Federation
12
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 09:13:00 -
[1] - Quote
So, a pretty big nerf to drone assisting has just been announced here: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=319278
This is more than likely going to result in a change in fleet doctrines. How do you think the prices of Ishtars, Dominix's and Archons will change? Post your thoughts here!
Also, due to the fact that a change in fleet doctrine of some big alliances could occur, it's probably a good time to start speculating, as an increase in demand will result in an increase in price (theoretically any way). Again, post your thoughts on what could be the next big fleet doctrine here!
Personally, I think that Dominix's have just been gutted for large fleet PvP and will have to be scrapped as a doctrine. Possibly a noticable price drop inbound.
Hull repping drones have also been announced: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=317033
feel free to discuss those in this thread as well (will demand be as high? Higher? It's possible!)
Speculate! |

Ramone Ormand
The Scope Gallente Federation
12
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 09:20:00 -
[2] - Quote
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=317352&find=unread Astero, Stratios & Nestor will now also be able to be acquired from Nexus Chips dropped from rogue drones.
SOE faction ship price nerf? Panic sell? Maybe  |

Kagura Nikon
Mentally Assured Destruction The Pursuit of Happiness
1255
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 09:37:00 -
[3] - Quote
Ramone Ormand wrote:So, a pretty big nerf to drone assisting has just been announced here: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=319278This is more than likely going to result in a change in fleet doctrines. How do you think the prices of Ishtars, Dominix's and Archons will change? Post your thoughts here! Also, due to the fact that a change in fleet doctrine of some big alliances could occur, it's probably a good time to start speculating, as an increase in demand will result in an increase in price (theoretically any way). Again, post your thoughts on what could be the next big fleet doctrine here! Personally, I think that Dominix's have just been gutted for large fleet PvP and will have to be scrapped as a doctrine. Possibly a noticable price drop inbound. Hull repping drones have also been announced: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=317033feel free to discuss those in this thread as well (will demand be as high? Higher? It's possible!) Speculate!
Toughts fo someone that never used the clearly. Dominixes are still the most powerful fleet battleship.. by MILES!!! "If brute force does not solve your problem..... -áthen you are -ásurely not using enough!" |

Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
75
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 09:48:00 -
[4] - Quote
Despite popular perception, sentry-assist fleets do not comprise 100% of nullsec doctrines. The rest of them are plenty willing to press F1, why won't the sentry fleets?
This is not going to lead to any major doctrinal changes, except to make specific sub-groups (or individual players) of these fleets make minor changes so they can use their own sentries. Slowcat is already proven quite capable of this, and already carries equipment to refit in the field for it. The only possible price fluctuation would be if dominix fleets are incapable of fitting the extra mid, and I highly doubt that will be a problem. |

Ramone Ormand
The Scope Gallente Federation
12
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 09:48:00 -
[5] - Quote
Kagura Nikon wrote:Ramone Ormand wrote:So, a pretty big nerf to drone assisting has just been announced here: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=319278This is more than likely going to result in a change in fleet doctrines. How do you think the prices of Ishtars, Dominix's and Archons will change? Post your thoughts here! Also, due to the fact that a change in fleet doctrine of some big alliances could occur, it's probably a good time to start speculating, as an increase in demand will result in an increase in price (theoretically any way). Again, post your thoughts on what could be the next big fleet doctrine here! Personally, I think that Dominix's have just been gutted for large fleet PvP and will have to be scrapped as a doctrine. Possibly a noticable price drop inbound. Hull repping drones have also been announced: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=317033feel free to discuss those in this thread as well (will demand be as high? Higher? It's possible!) Speculate! Toughts fo someone that never used the clearly. Dominixes are still the most powerful fleet battleship.. by MILES!!!
Perhaps you didn't read the thread. It says somewhere that Dominix's currently dish out 5x more dps than the second favorite PvP ship in the game. They said that if this number doesn't decrease, they will have failed to nerf it and will try something else. |

Sabriz Adoudel
Mission BLITZ
1967
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 10:50:00 -
[6] - Quote
I'm selling off all my Drone Damage Amplifier II stock, and hoping to get 105% of purchase price on it. Two days ago I might have got 125%. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=238931 - an idea for a new form of hybrid PVE/PVP content. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=318489 - Proposal for a new type of tech 2 Destroyer If you want to mine in highsec, read www.minerbumping.com. |

Kendra Coldera
Ripoff Industries
11
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 13:39:00 -
[7] - Quote
The "nerf" shows that CCP has 0 grasp on things (just as goons apparantly, since they wanted that nerf).
This nerf is not going to change a lot. People will still field Archons because they simply do not die, and for the brain-afk Domi fleets: they just assign everything to their Squad Commander meaning you now need 25 persons with a brain instead of 1, which should still be a favourable percentage in a fleet size of 250.
Workaround to make Archons brainless as well would be to have 2 ppl in each squad that get assist and so you need 50 people focusing on targets while 200 still do nothing except watching reps or browsing fukung.
Good job CCP, I expected something way more clever. |

Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
2177
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 14:30:00 -
[8] - Quote
Vastly over-estimating the impact of this "nerf". Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal |

Death ToU
Screaming Hayabusa
51
|
Posted - 2014.02.07 14:39:00 -
[9] - Quote
Varius Xeral wrote:Vastly over-estimating the impact of this "nerf".
Or trying to provoke someone else to react to a change that they have put no thought into and reaping the rewards. |

Secret Squirrell
Allied Press Intergalactic
75
|
Posted - 2014.02.09 18:36:00 -
[10] - Quote
It is going to be hard to distinguish the market impact of the drone assist nerf from the impact of the Halloween war wrapping up. |

Joan Greywind
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
321
|
Posted - 2014.02.10 07:42:00 -
[11] - Quote
It doesn't matter, all mass produced / used goods (especially ships) will have their price hover around 4-10% of production costs, no matter what the demand (except 0) is. It might fluctuate in the short term, but in the long term the statement above is always right (extreme cases like CCP changing mineral compositions need not apply).
The could make the domi have a mining bonus instead of the drone bonus and the price is still going to be the production costs + 4%-10% (or something similar).
The assumption always is when demand changes the supply is going to stay constant, but that isn't the case. In the event of a perfectly elastic supply (which ship production fits perfectly) the equilibrium price is production costs + a few basis points as profit.
What you should e speculating on if anything, is minerals and tech 2 components demand and supply, all other produced things ultimately derive their value from that and nothing else.
Teaching you the things they never did in business school. |

lightsinsky
Space Agency
3
|
Posted - 2014.02.10 23:39:00 -
[12] - Quote
everybody will switch to armageddons |

Sabriz Adoudel
Mission BLITZ
2019
|
Posted - 2014.02.11 03:10:00 -
[13] - Quote
There was a clear short-term inflation of drone-related merchandise due to the war and the fact that sentries were stupidly OP. It's likely that there will continue to be moderate demand for drones and drone paraphenalia, but there is currently a significant stockpile of them in the hangars of various null alliances. As such I've sold all of mine (only ~1b worth), with an eye to rebuying at a time when supply still exceeds demand but the price memory has faded.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=238931 - an idea for a new form of hybrid PVE/PVP content. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=318489 - Proposal for a new type of tech 2 Destroyer If you want to mine in highsec, read www.minerbumping.com. |

Rashnu Gorbani
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
2
|
Posted - 2014.02.11 11:00:00 -
[14] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:sentries were stupidly OP I don't know about that, it's not like you can bomb people's arties or railguns away easily, at least not without the ships. |

Myriad Blaze
Common Sense Ltd Nulli Secunda
156
|
Posted - 2014.02.11 13:49:00 -
[15] - Quote
Ramone Ormand wrote:Perhaps you didn't read the thread. It says somewhere that Dominix's currently dish out 5x more dps than the second favorite PvP ship in the game. They said that if this number doesn't decrease, they will have failed to nerf it and will try something else. Maybe you want to reread what CCP Rise said about Domis. He didn't say, what you think he said:
CCP Rise wrote: I can't put a number on it, but currently Dominixes are responsible for somewhere in the ballpark of 5 times the PVP damage dealt of the next most popular fleet battleship, if that's still the case in a few months this will have 'not worked'.
And the impact of the changes to drone assisst is probably overrated. Under heavy TiDi drone assist had issues anyway.
|

Agondray
Avenger Mercenaries VOID Intergalactic Forces
26
|
Posted - 2014.02.11 15:53:00 -
[16] - Quote
Incursion pilots are already developing a plan around this, so will drone swarms, easily solved just wont be as powerful as 1 guy hitting f1 and 1k drones firing all at once. just a matter of now having multiple drone bunnies now. |

Ramone Ormand
The Scope Gallente Federation
12
|
Posted - 2014.02.11 21:05:00 -
[17] - Quote
Myriad Blaze wrote:Ramone Ormand wrote:Perhaps you didn't read the thread. It says somewhere that Dominix's currently dish out 5x more dps than the second favorite PvP ship in the game. They said that if this number doesn't decrease, they will have failed to nerf it and will try something else. Maybe you want to reread what CCP Rise said about Domis. He didn't say, what you think he said: CCP Rise wrote: I can't put a number on it, but currently Dominixes are responsible for somewhere in the ballpark of 5 times the PVP damage dealt of the next most popular fleet battleship, if that's still the case in a few months this will have 'not worked'.
And the impact of the changes to drone assisst is probably overrated. Under heavy TiDi drone assist had issues anyway.
No, that's what I think he said. Maybe I just said it awfully. (They don't have 5x the dps they're used 5x as often). This number is trying to be decreased by CCP though, so the Dominix market/ drone market will likely change from this. Maybe they just won't be sold as often |

Sabriz Adoudel
Mission BLITZ
2035
|
Posted - 2014.02.13 02:40:00 -
[18] - Quote
Agondray wrote:Incursion pilots are already developing a plan around this, so will drone swarms, easily solved just wont be as powerful as 1 guy hitting f1 and 1k drones firing all at once. just a matter of now having multiple drone bunnies now.
It's not just assist that's been changed, sentries have gone from having the best damage application of any battleship weapons to being balanced. The omnidirectional change was more significant than the requirement to have multiple drone bunnies.
No more insta-popping moving, heavily tanked heavy interdictors at 100km.
Drone paraphenalia remains in heavy flux pricewise but is way down on what it was prior to the announcements of these changes. Ishtar hulls have held up due to ratting applications. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=238931 - an idea for a new form of hybrid PVE/PVP content. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=318489 - Proposal for a new type of tech 2 Destroyer If you want to mine in highsec, read www.minerbumping.com. |

Joan Greywind
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
331
|
Posted - 2014.02.13 03:28:00 -
[19] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:Agondray wrote:Incursion pilots are already developing a plan around this, so will drone swarms, easily solved just wont be as powerful as 1 guy hitting f1 and 1k drones firing all at once. just a matter of now having multiple drone bunnies now. It's not just assist that's been changed, sentries have gone from having the best damage application of any battleship weapons to being balanced. The omnidirectional change was more significant than the requirement to have multiple drone bunnies. No more insta-popping moving, heavily tanked heavy interdictors at 100km. Drone paraphenalia remains in heavy flux pricewise but is way down on what it was prior to the announcements of these changes. Ishtar hulls have held up due to ratting applications.
What drone "paraphernalia" (really?) are way down?
Drones mods prices are the same, drone prices are the same, and drone hull prices are the same (increasing actually). Don't fabricate data to prove your imaginary point. It is already explained above, it doesn't matter what the demand or supply, or how effective the hull is, the only thing affecting the price of a perfectly elastic supplied (google it) good is the cost of those minerals. I am extremely annoyed with people that think they understand economics because they looked at a couple of spreadsheets, and infect other people with their nonsense.
And this is completely unrelated but you can still insta pop dictors, just instead of 30 domins you are going to need 50. The omnidirectional change is more significant in small gang warfare, but in nullsec (the bulk of the demand) where alpha is king and most big fights are in tidi, the drone assist change is more significant. Anyways those things don't matter if you want to speculate on price.
And why am I a little harsh? Because amateur self proclaimed "marketeers" that think they understand a complicated field like economics should be put out as fast as possible, like rabid dogs. And using big words doesn't make you sound smarter, just pretentious (I wait for any opportunity to use this word :P). |

Sabriz Adoudel
Mission BLITZ
2036
|
Posted - 2014.02.13 03:39:00 -
[20] - Quote
Joan Greywind wrote:
What drone "paraphernalia" (really?) are way down?
Drones mods prices are the same, drone prices are the same, and drone hull prices are the same (increasing actually). Don't fabricate data to prove your imaginary point. It is already explained above, it doesn't matter what the demand or supply, or how effective the hull is, the only thing affecting the price of a perfectly elastic supplied (google it) good is the cost of those minerals. I am extremely annoyed with people that think they understand economics because they looked at a couple of spreadsheets, and infect other people with their nonsense.
And this is completely unrelated but you can still insta pop dictors, just instead of 30 domins you are going to need 50. The omnidirectional change is more significant in small gang warfare, but in nullsec (the bulk of the demand) where alpha is king and most big fights are in tidi, the drone assist change is more significant. Anyways those things don't matter if you want to speculate on price.
And why am I a little harsh? Because amateur self proclaimed "marketeers" that think they understand a complicated field like economics should be put out as fast as possible, like rabid dogs. And using big words doesn't make you sound smarter, just pretentious (I wait for any opportunity to use this word :P).
Drone Damage Amplifier IIs were selling for 1600k with buy orders at 1350k before the changes in Sinq Laison. Last night when I logged off they were around a million. In Jita there are over a thousand units around the 920k mark according to eve central.
All because supply is still high (not everyone who started building DDAIIs has yet realised that they should stop, and there are alliance stockpiles and personal speculation stockpiles being dumped) and demand is lower.
Ishtars in Sinq Laison are down 5% from their peak and their falling prices are causing Photon Microprocessors to drop too, back from 47k to 43.5k in Jita and 50k from a peak of 58k in Dodixie.
The supply is only perfectly elastic if everyone operates intelligently and uses the information available to them. This is not and has never been true in EVE, witness "Minerals I Mine Are Free" people, people who anticipate changes in the market and preposition for them vs people who react once they see their margins falling, and so on. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=238931 - an idea for a new form of hybrid PVE/PVP content. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=318489 - Proposal for a new type of tech 2 Destroyer If you want to mine in highsec, read www.minerbumping.com. |

Joan Greywind
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
331
|
Posted - 2014.02.13 04:23:00 -
[21] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Drone Damage Amplifier IIs were selling for 1600k with buy orders at 1350k before the changes in Sinq Laison. Last night when I logged off they were around a million. In Jita there are over a thousand units around the 920k mark according to eve central.
All because supply is still high (not everyone who started building DDAIIs has yet realised that they should stop, and there are alliance stockpiles and personal speculation stockpiles being dumped) and demand is lower.
Ishtars in Sinq Laison are down 5% from their peak and their falling prices are causing Photon Microprocessors to drop too, back from 47k to 43.5k in Jita and 50k from a peak of 58k in Dodixie.
The supply is only perfectly elastic if everyone operates intelligently and uses the information available to them. This is not and has never been true in EVE, witness "Minerals I Mine Are Free" people, people who anticipate changes in the market and preposition for them vs people who react once they see their margins falling, and so on.
I never said the price is constant, or it doesn't fluctuate, my point is the fluctuation in the long term is due to one thing and one thing only, the cost of production.
Let me put it in a simple example for you. Let us say the production cost of a drone damage amp is 1m, we are also assuming moon mineral prices are constant. Now let us say the mod gives a 50% damage bonus and the demand is 100,000 units per day, because everyone is using it. Now is a environment like EVE, where you don't have market barrier to produce or enter a given market, suppliers are going to keep undercutting each other till they reach a price of 1m-1.1m. This is not an opinion, this is basic economic theory and 1 of the few that all economists agree on. If the bonus drops to 10% and demand plummets to 5k units sold a day, then we will have a market glut. What will happen in the short term is prices are going to drop, but as soon as profits become below 0% suppliers are going to be dropping by droves, until we reach the equilibrium point where we have 5k units demanded, 5k units supplied and a price of 1m-1.1m again.
"Ishtars in Sinq Laison are down 5% from their peak and their falling prices are causing Photon Microprocessors to drop too, back from 47k to 43.5k in Jita and 50k from a peak of 58k in Dodixie."
This statement proves how inexperienced you are in the field of economics, as you fell for the most basic fallacy in econ, correlation doesn't equate causation. You assumed that lower ishtar demand caused lower micro processer prices. I could have easily used the same information to say that ishtar prices are down not because of demand, but actually because of lower microprocessor prices , supporting my point and not yours. You see ishtars by themselves constitute a very small portion of the market of microprocessors, much like domi's constitute a small portion of the trit market. So a change in the demand of ishtars will not significantly affect the prices of processors (much less than 1%). For a change in the prices of raw material to happen you need significant changes across the board, like changing the mineral composition of all battleships, and even that only affected the mineral prices slightly. But the other way around, a 5% change in the microprocessor prices will cause a 5% change in Ishtar prices.
And please if we are going to use prices, let us use jita prices, because other hubs are still inefficient in the short term much more prone to random fluctuations.
Using the argument that prices will not reach the equilibrium price, or that the supply is not perfectly elastic, because people are stupid, is plainly false. Those people do exist, but what is beautiful about the free market is those people are weeded out, much like evolution. Because of the losses they take, their position is simply not sustainable. Sure there is a small percentage of them but they will never affect the market in the long term. This is why in the real world you don't have companies that operate under loses for 5+ years. And are you telling me people that figured out how to use the t2 production UI and made spreadsheets about them are too stupid to understand that the minerals they mine are not free?
In the long term the price of all modules and ships is production cost + basis points for profit. You can check any item you want and this will always be true. In the long term modules and ships affect the prices of raw materials, but only on the macro scale and not the micro. No one type of module or ship can significantly alter the raw minerals prices. |

Sabriz Adoudel
Mission BLITZ
2036
|
Posted - 2014.02.13 05:43:00 -
[22] - Quote
Let's split out two factors here.
There's what something is worth - which I agree is either build cost + a small spread, or something influenced by historical build price (cough, cough, Photon Microprocessors or Celestis, or anything else where build costs were changed when players had extensive stockpiles).
Then there's what it sells for *right now*.
The former puts limits on the latter but does not determine it. Case in point - when the Halloween War first started, Oneiros hulls were selling for 70 million above build cost (60% profit on builds) because there was little supply backlog, and the Goons wanted a massive stockpile. Demand exceeded supply, so price was partially decoupled from the actual value of the hull. This didn't last but it was a very real factor as it took other producers significant time to get into the Oneiros market and restabilize it.
For a whole period, the short-term demand caused the prices drone related modules traded at to soar. Now they are returning to something closer to their real value.
Bubbles caused by short term supply/demand effects are basic economics.
As for the Microprocessors going up, they tailed the Oneiroses - I observed this because I was buying the former to build the latter. As more people started to see the profits in Oneiros hulls, they bought all the Microprocessors off the market locally and consumed them. Noone can build Photon Microprocessors profitably now due to Odyssey changes (last time I looked anyway; this may no longer be accurate but it is believed to be by most people that build tech 2) and so the demand pushed up prices until speculators started releasing some of their pre-Ody supplies. Those supplies were located in Jita, so that was where the cheapest stock was. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=238931 - an idea for a new form of hybrid PVE/PVP content. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=318489 - Proposal for a new type of tech 2 Destroyer If you want to mine in highsec, read www.minerbumping.com. |

Joan Greywind
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
331
|
Posted - 2014.02.13 07:19:00 -
[23] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Edit: Your fundamental misconception is that you are operating upon the incorrect assumption that market shifts lead to immediate changes in what is being produced.
I have clearly used "short term" and "long term" multiple times in my posts. There is no misconception as from the beginning I separated both cases, it was you who failed to do so.
This is a forum post discussing the long term prices of drone mods /ships. Seven days is not "significant lead time". You will earn a fast buck but this is not sustainable speculation. When you want to invest in a module, you speculate on the long run (at least a month) on the fundamentals and not on small fluctuations (supply / demand discrepancies) in the short term. What you are doing is trading and not investing, you are effectively betting on the "perceived value" of the module and not its real value. This practice is shrouded in rules of thumbs and "gut feelings" and is not grounded in economic theory.
What you are basically saying is I agree with you but I don't want to admit it. |

Allison Sky
Logi and Anal R Us
0
|
Posted - 2014.02.21 22:17:00 -
[24] - Quote
What most people fail to realize is that drone assign only works ~90% of the time in null 0.0 fleet fights. After you get past 1500 in system, drone assign only works correctly around 65% of the time, after you get to 1800+ it doesn't work at all. In low sec it has never worked correctly. So, this change will basically change nothing other than forcing 2 of the archon mid slots to be sensor boosters, which was necessary in low sec anyway due to drone assist being completely broken there. |
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