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Calvin
Israeli Space Corporation
4
   |
Posted - 2014.07.20 22:53:00 -
[1] - Quote
Hi folks,
Just wanted to share my latest blog post on using some rudimentary digital signal processing techniques to examine the patterns in New Eden: http://newedenanalytics.blogspot.com/2014/07/applying-digital-signal-processing-to.html
I plan on delving more into this in future posts, but wanted to share this primer.
Cheers,
- Calvin |
Arla Sarain
51
|
Posted - 2014.07.20 22:57:00 -
[2] - Quote
Every function can be expressed as the sum of an odd and an even function.
As sine is odd, and cos is even, every function can be expressed as a sum of sin and cos functions.
...so?
|
Calvin
Israeli Space Corporation
4
|
Posted - 2014.07.20 22:59:00 -
[3] - Quote
Arla Sarain wrote:Every function can be expressed as the sum of an odd and an even function.
As sine is odd, and cos is even, every function can be expressed as a sum of sin and cos functions.
...so?
Gotta start somewhere (-: |
James Amril-Kesh
4S Corporation
Goonswarm Federation
10701
|
Posted - 2014.07.20 23:01:00 -
[4] - Quote
Arla Sarain wrote:Every function can be expressed as the sum of an odd and an even function.
As sine is odd, and cos is even, every function can be expressed as a sum of sin and cos functions.
...so?
cosine is just sine phase shifted by pi/2
So really any periodic function can be represented as a sum of sine or cosine waves.
No, this isn't it at all. Make it more... psssshhhh. |
Christina Project
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
347
|
Posted - 2014.07.20 23:12:00 -
[5] - Quote
Some smooth curves you got there... ;)
http://residentoutlaw.tumblr.com - Tripple Volley Thrasher!! WOOHOO! :D |
Calvin
Israeli Space Corporation
4
|
Posted - 2014.07.20 23:14:00 -
[6] - Quote
James Amril-Kesh wrote:Arla Sarain wrote:Every function can be expressed as the sum of an odd and an even function.
As sine is odd, and cos is even, every function can be expressed as a sum of sin and cos functions.
...so?
cosine is just sine phase shifted by pi/2 So really any periodic function can be represented as a sum of sine or cosine waves.
Aww, don't go off ruining my whole next post on Fourier Transforms ;-) |
James Amril-Kesh
4S Corporation
Goonswarm Federation
10702
|
Posted - 2014.07.20 23:20:00 -
[7] - Quote
Calvin wrote:James Amril-Kesh wrote:Arla Sarain wrote:Every function can be expressed as the sum of an odd and an even function.
As sine is odd, and cos is even, every function can be expressed as a sum of sin and cos functions.
...so?
cosine is just sine phase shifted by pi/2 So really any periodic function can be represented as a sum of sine or cosine waves. Aww, don't go off ruining my whole next post on Fourier Transforms ;-)
I could have said more on the subject, but I'm really not very knowledgeable at all. I never learned how to do Fourier transforms, but I did learn Laplace transforms in my differential equations class.
No, this isn't it at all. Make it more... psssshhhh. |
Chirjo Durruti
Lost Dawn Chaos
36
|
Posted - 2014.07.20 23:25:00 -
[8] - Quote
Calvin wrote:digital signal processing techniques
Fourier transformations are a very generic tool.... eg. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourier_transform#Uncertainty_principle
HOWTO: No More Tears (solo) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdA4ciUrH-k
If you can get me a better crew than THIS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPrtQ9AdoM0
convo me. |
Jayrendo Karr
Rifterlings
Point Blank Alliance
267
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 00:18:00 -
[9] - Quote
wtf am i reading |
stoicfaux
5174
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 00:27:00 -
[10] - Quote
Jayrendo Karr wrote:wtf am i reading
Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Aka having fun with numbers. Aka proving that our mothers lied to us about being unique, special snowflakes.
WASABI: Warp Acceleration System Ancillary Boost Injected(Gäó)
|
Scipio Artelius
The Vendunari
End of Life
2205
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 00:31:00 -
[11] - Quote
Jayrendo Karr wrote:wtf am i reading
That there is a 24 hour cycle to things in EvE, with activity dropping around downtime and peaking from mid-afternoon to late evening.
Tweaked sine functions match the cosine shape of activity in New Eden.
Conclusion: EvE is like a fine symphony. The wave shapes are near perfect.
Or something else.
Come Win At Eve - Join The Vendunari
. -á<- Argue this, not this ->-á( -í-¦ -£-û -í-¦) |
Christina Project
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
351
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 00:47:00 -
[12] - Quote
Scipio Artelius wrote:Jayrendo Karr wrote:wtf am i reading That there is a 24 hour cycle to things in EvE, with activity dropping around downtime and peaking from mid-afternoon to late evening. Tweaked sine functions match the cosine shape of activity in New Eden. Conclusion: EvE is like a fine symphony. The wave shapes are near perfect. Or something else. The universe is fractal.
/thread.
http://residentoutlaw.tumblr.com --áSniping groups of small NPCs and gankers effectively. |
Sibyyl
Gallente Federation
3387
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 03:45:00 -
[13] - Quote
Hi Calvin, thanks for posting your analysis.
About your article Jump Pattern Analysis, how did you get data of number of jumps?
.. when everything else is gone .. |
Calvin
Israeli Space Corporation
6
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 06:00:00 -
[14] - Quote
Sibyyl wrote:Hi Calvin, thanks for posting your analysis. About your article Jump Pattern Analysis, how did you get data of number of jumps?
I have a script that auto-collects from both the Jumps and Kills APIs every hour, it's been running ~1.5 months now, so lots of data to work with (-: |
Trevor Dalech
Adeptus Assassinorum
Silent Eviction
41
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 06:25:00 -
[15] - Quote
Using Fourier analysis (sine and cosine waves) assumes patterns in EVE are cyclical and tells you nothing about the uncertainty of your models. Have you considered using some form of ARIMA modeling? |
Jake Warbird
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
4166
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 07:36:00 -
[16] - Quote
Graphs. Pretty pretty graphs. |
Madam Lash
13
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 07:49:00 -
[17] - Quote
Scipio Artelius wrote:Jayrendo Karr wrote:wtf am i reading That there is a 24 hour cycle to things in EvE, with activity dropping around downtime and peaking from mid-afternoon to late evening. Tweaked sine functions match the cosine shape of activity in New Eden. Conclusion: EvE is like a fine symphony. The wave shapes are near perfect. Or something else.
Either way - my brain hurts more than it usually does. |
Mithandra
Serene Vendetta
Brawls Deep
101
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 10:06:00 -
[18] - Quote
I'm lost. Not at the math, but at why you would spend so much time proving that activity in eve is cyclical.
We live all across an oblate spheroid, orbiting a giant ball of fire, of course its cyclical.
Sorry but what's your goal here? |
Calvin
Israeli Space Corporation
6
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 12:09:00 -
[19] - Quote
Mithandra wrote:I'm lost. Not at the math, but at why you would spend so much time proving that activity in eve is cyclical.
We live all across an oblate spheroid, orbiting a giant ball of fire, of course its cyclical.
Sorry but what's your goal here?
Curiosity (-: |
Nose' Feliciano
178
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 12:53:00 -
[20] - Quote
Scipio Artelius wrote:Jayrendo Karr wrote:wtf am i reading That there is a 24 hour cycle to things in EvE, with activity dropping around downtime and peaking from mid-afternoon to late evening. Tweaked sine functions match the cosine shape of activity in New Eden. Conclusion: EvE is like a fine symphony. The wave shapes are near perfect. Or something else.
I would like to see the results when downtime is done away with...as is planned.
Ladies, you know what they say about guys with big noses right? Heh-heh!!
That's right, it means they are either Jewish or Italian.
:P |
Christina Project
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
370
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 14:05:00 -
[21] - Quote
A wild Sibyyl appears!
Yes, I'm underutilized atm. XD
http://residentoutlaw.tumblr.com --áSniping groups of small NPCs and gankers effectively. |
Wendrika
Offworld Trading Company
75
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 14:18:00 -
[22] - Quote
Ack! Math! My only weakness! How did you know?!
Personaly, I would just use multi-linear regression and hope for the best. Maybe toss a few variables like, I dunno, number of people online versus the population of Amarr at a given hour. But then I'd have to check collinearity to make sure both variables are independent and...
Gosh, I really hate Math! I don't need Sine Waves!
|
Remiel Pollard
The Vigilance Institute
3991
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 14:20:00 -
[23] - Quote
I'm good at maths, but I hate it and I'm out of practice as a result. Instead, I'm going to tell a joke.
What do you call smacktalk about hybrid weapons?
Blast-phemy
Buddum-ch 
You don't scare me. I've been to Jita.
People complain about how 'empty' space is. Personally, I would be complaining if it were more 'full'.
|
Christina Project
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
371
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 14:36:00 -
[24] - Quote
Remiel Pollard wrote:I'm good at maths, but I hate it and I'm out of practice as a result. Instead, I'm going to tell a joke. What do you call smacktalk about hybrid weapons? Blast-phemy Buddum-ch
MacGyver and a Minmatar sit trapped in a small room.
MacGyver pulls out some chewing gum,
a LED,
wires,
a knife,
two packs of nails,
a condom,
old news paper,
hla hankerchief,
a PowerPuff Girls comic book,
the EVE Second Decade Collectors Edition ...
... and a stick of wood.
Suddenly, he looks desperate. He checks all his pockets,
pants, jacket, everywhere...
"OMG I LOST THE..." he starts, as the minmatar signals him to silence ...
..... ssssssssssssssshhhhhhh we're free soon .....
... and pulls out a huge roll of duct-tape.
http://residentoutlaw.tumblr.com --áSniping groups of small NPCs and gankers effectively. |
James Amril-Kesh
4S Corporation
Goonswarm Federation
10732
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 19:37:00 -
[25] - Quote
Mithandra wrote:I'm lost. Not at the math, but at why you would spend so much time proving that activity in eve is cyclical.
We live all across an oblate spheroid, orbiting a giant ball of fire, of course its cyclical.
Sorry but what's your goal here?
Except that's a pattern you'd expect to see if we all lived in the same area, not spread out about the place.
No, this isn't it at all. Make it more... psssshhhh. |
PotatoOverdose
Handsome Millionaire Playboys
Mordus Angels
1921
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 20:34:00 -
[26] - Quote
James Amril-Kesh wrote:Mithandra wrote:I'm lost. Not at the math, but at why you would spend so much time proving that activity in eve is cyclical.
We live all across an oblate spheroid, orbiting a giant ball of fire, of course its cyclical.
Sorry but what's your goal here? Except that's a pattern you'd expect to see if we all lived in the same area, not spread out about the place.
Nope. The sum of two periodic functions is still periodic. You have players eating, sleeping, working and playing eve in Australia. You have players eating, sleeping, working and playing eve in Britain. They both tend to play eve in their prime-time. If you track the activity level of any sufficiently populated system in eve, they will all be periodic with the same pattern.
I read some of the posts in his blog. Just seems like dressing up simple concepts with math to make the subject matter seem less trivial than it actually is. Previous post was: if you look at activity x in region y and activity x in region z, if they're similar you'll see similar behaviors in those two regions. No ****.
The most recent post is: here's a periodic function. Population levels in a given system are periodic. Yay! His previous post is: Here are the jumps in Jita. Here is the Fourier Transform of the jumps in jita. And look, the same pattern is present!
Here's an useful example of signal processing. Cold war, 70's: satellite takes a picture of a forest in east germany, and drops a canister of microfilm back to earth which is picked up by a c130. The film has a picture of a forest, seemingly empty of anything but trees. Use Fourier optics to convolve the film with another film with an image of a tank. Boom, every single soviet tank on the original microfilm lights up like a flare.
In general, fourier analysis is used as a way to simplify complicated math. Say you want to see how similar two complicated signals are (this can be data points, or as in the soviet tank example, an image). You could do a direct convolution, but for two arbitrary signals this would be computationally intensive. Or, you could convolve each arbitrary signal with an exceedingly simple function (this is a fourier transform) and multiply the two signals together in fourier space (this step is simple multiplication), then you can look at the spectra directly or convolve the product-signal with an exceedingly simple function again (this is an inverse fourier transform).
The point is, you take a complicated signal or image, and extract useful information that wasn't readily available beforehand (e.g. soviet tanks in what appeared to be an empty forest). In that blog I see already simple patterns dressed up with math, no useful insight over the original data is provided.
The entire blog just kinda rubs me the wrong way, dressing up exceedingly simple things with math to seem "ardently intellectual" as the blogger describes himself. Seems pretentious, maybe I'm judging too harshly though. vOv |
Calvin
Israeli Space Corporation
9
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 22:56:00 -
[27] - Quote
Nose' Feliciano wrote:Scipio Artelius wrote:Jayrendo Karr wrote:wtf am i reading That there is a 24 hour cycle to things in EvE, with activity dropping around downtime and peaking from mid-afternoon to late evening. Tweaked sine functions match the cosine shape of activity in New Eden. Conclusion: EvE is like a fine symphony. The wave shapes are near perfect. Or something else. I would like to see the results when downtime is done away with...as is planned.
Tell me about it, that 'hiccup' skews the data for at least three hours :-/ |
Calvin
Israeli Space Corporation
9
|
Posted - 2014.07.21 22:58:00 -
[28] - Quote
Wendrika wrote:Ack! Math! My only weakness! How did you know?!
Personaly, I would just use multi-linear regression and hope for the best. Maybe toss a few variables like, I dunno, number of people online versus the population of Amarr at a given hour. But then I'd have to check collinearity to make sure both variables are independent and...
Gosh, I really hate Math! I don't need Sine Waves!
Actually that's where I started, but I got annoyed that I needed all these discrete variables to account for time. I wanted a better way, hence where the sine wave stuff came in. Ideally I want a formula to convert all of the time data into a linear function so I can only use one variable to capture all of the time-based variance. Something of a pipe dream, but even with the messive amounts of data I have, I don't have enough to properly analyze the game on all the dimensions I want to. |
Chirjo Durruti
Lost Dawn Chaos
36
|
Posted - 2014.07.23 16:34:00 -
[29] - Quote
Nose' Feliciano wrote:Scipio Artelius wrote:Jayrendo Karr wrote:wtf am i reading That there is a 24 hour cycle to things in EvE, with activity dropping around downtime and peaking from mid-afternoon to late evening. Tweaked sine functions match the cosine shape of activity in New Eden. Conclusion: EvE is like a fine symphony. The wave shapes are near perfect. Or something else. I would like to see the results when downtime is done away with...as is planned.
Downtime should only increase the tail towards high frequencies.
HOWTO: No More Tears (solo) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdA4ciUrH-k
If you can get me a better crew than THIS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPrtQ9AdoM0
convo me. |
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