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Shoogie
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Posted - 2014.07.28 21:09:00 -
[1] - Quote
The changes in the Crius release will require a significant number of people to quit industry, or at least let their manufacturing lines idle more often than previously.
It is basic economics. What happens when demand stays constant, but supply goes up? Margins become thinner.
There were two major changes which will potentially increase supply. Easiest to understand is the change of the Material Efficiency skill to Advanced Industry. The Material Efficiency skill was too good before. Because it was so important, everyone who wanted to do industry was required to train it to level 5. Therefore, almost everyone with an interest in industry today was gifted Advanced Industry level 5. That basically means that everyone gets 15% faster production for everything. But nothing in Crius changed the demand side of the equation. Therefore, the same market demand can be fulfilled by 15% FEWER characters now than it could have before.
The second major change to increase supply was the removal of slots. Previously, a great deal of production was slot-limited. The next job was queued up before the previous job could complete. Time waiting in queue was wasted time. With the removal of slots, there is no need for this wait any longer. I cannot begin to quantify how much the removal of slots will improve industry throughput, but it is significant.
So the market can be fulfilled by fewer industry characters now than before. If more people try to produce than are needed to satisfy the market, then profits will decrease.
Of course, I am not saying there will be no profits. However, it will take more effort to realize that profit. More time thinking about what to build. More time examining facilities. More time hauling. Profit per unit may even be higher, but profit per time spent actually thinking about and doing industry will be lower. This will cause a number of people to quit manufacturing. A new equilibrium will be established with fewer players in the market. |
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
119
|
Posted - 2014.07.28 22:34:00 -
[2] - Quote
Lucas Kell wrote:Shoogie wrote:However, it will take more effort to realize that profit. More time thinking about what to build. More time examining facilities. More time hauling. Profit per unit may even be higher, but profit per time spent actually thinking about and doing industry will be lower. This will cause a number of people to quit manufacturing. A new equilibrium will be established with fewer players in the market. I think this is pretty much the goal of the changes. They want people to have to play industry, not just do it as a side task, which is what it's been for a long time.
We agree on that.
I am still in shock that CCP actually went through with these changes which are guaranteed to make people quit manufacturing and shut down alt accounts. |
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
119
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Posted - 2014.07.28 22:46:00 -
[3] - Quote
For those of you quitting manufacturing, thank you for doing your part to help the market find its new equilibrium. |
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
120
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Posted - 2014.07.30 22:54:00 -
[4] - Quote
Arguing about margin vs isk per hour is all obfuscating the point.
Profit per unit
Margin
Isk per hour
Isk per effort
All of the above are directly related. The industrial capacity of the EVE cluster just increased by a great deal. Demand did not. That means average profit for everyone (no matter how you like to measure it) will be going down. Obviously there will be specific items or specific tactics you can use to beat the average.
But there will be a great deal of people who decide that industry is no longer worth their time. Once they quit, the market will reach a new equilibrium. |
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