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DigitalCommunist Evolution Band of Brothers	Posted - 2006.08.16 18:43:00 - [31] That was an awesome blog. I'm in a program called Engineering & Management which has me taking a lot of Economics courses, so it was fun to see all those terms in use ;) Not only did you prove HAC prices have almost nothing to do with inflation, but showed that insurance is bad for the economy. And by far my favourite part, the graph shows a considerable increase in inflation of your chosen basked right around the time of EXODUS and its ridiculous lvl 4 agent missions. I remember Gist X-Type XL shield boosters going for over 3billion isk back then. I'd like to point out the price of something (in terms of Economics) is what you give up to obtain it. A HAC may cost 200mil but its no more difficult to obtain 200mil today, than it was to obtain 15mil for the very first tech 1 cruisers during the start of retail. It may actually be less difficult, if you count the sheer number of hours spent mining and hauling. I'm no expert, but I can try pointing out the obvious. What I think are the biggest sources of inflation.. Rise in Bounties - Some of the most common "ISK Faucets" are bounties, and if you ignore commander/officer spawns because of their rarity, the best spawns have increased from 50,000 ISK cruisers to 1,850,000 ISK battleships. Thats a factor of 37x! (and far more common, might I add) Insurance - Already mentioned, but if any of the old players will recall there was no default basic 40% insurance to speak of. Which means those uninsured deaths will have contributed nothing to inflation. Insurance itself started out one week in duration, and was changed to 3 weeks eventually. When it was 1 week, no one bothered. When it was 3 weeks it was really a difficult choice, that depended on the amount of risks you took playing EVE. But now.. getting insurance is a no-brainer, and even if you don't you're creating ISK. NPCing vs Mining - NPCs have the side effect of being able to provide a LOT of minerals if you know what you're doing - enough to build capital ships. This means there are far less people interested in Mining which was the only reliable method of getting minerals for a long time. This results in a larger proportion of players killing NPCs in belts, missions and complexes to meet their needs. And mining does not create ISK (now that NPC buy orders are removed), while NPCing does. Security - To be concise, its a lot harder to interfere with someone's ability to make money because many of the new alternatives like complexes and missions are in difficult locations not suitable to PVP. On top of that, many of the high sec alternatives are competitive with 0.0 so you'd need a war declaration on top of the stuff I already mentioned. Throw in local chat and instajumps and you have the ultimate truth: to lose your ship while trying to make money (to players) would place you in the minority. Hell, even NPCs don't kill people as often as they once did because of the reduced scrambling and better player ships. I have two final questions. Don't you track the amount of ISK in EVE? Wouldn't taking the average amount of ISK in all players wallets from 2003 and comparing it to each year be the best indicator of inflation? Second question, anything being done about this or is it merely for our observational amusement? I know capital ship bpos and outposts removed a lot of the isk EXODUS created but over time the amount of people purchasing those is going to level out. My bet is that all the POS, outpost, and capital ship market activity won't even come close to preventing inflation. Purchasing Complex Fullerene Shards, contact me ingame.
Ramblin Man Empyreum	Posted - 2006.08.16 18:50:00 - [32] A broad, informative, and well-written coverage of historical macroeconomic theory, Todd G. Buchholz's New Ideas from Dead Economists
Xeux	Posted - 2006.08.16 18:54:00 - [33] Redundancy asked about economics professionals that would be interested in helping with the analysis. I would be more than happy to help in any way necessary. I received my degree in 1997 from here. My focus is not pure economics, it is political economy - how government policies and international forces affect local economies. Nonetheless, if I can help, just let me know.
Doc Brown Gallente Tyrell Corp Curse Coalition	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:00:00 - [34] Originally by: DigitalCommunist I have two final questions. Don't you track the amount of ISK in EVE? Wouldn't taking the average amount of ISK in all players wallets from 2003 and comparing it to each year be the best indicator of inflation? Tracking isk in wallet's wouldn't help because alot of it is re-invested to try to make more isk (in BPO's or other schemes). A basket comparision is probably best, but you need a couple of baskets (mining, t2 small ship, t2 big ship, etc). _________________________________________________ There are no bad ideas, only bad implementations.
Azariadis	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:05:00 - [35] It is really nice for me to see this on the forums. There are several measures of inflation. The examples in the blog refer to a consumer price index (CPI) which is a measure of the price of a basket of goods by a typical consumer. I would argue that Vagabonds are not purchased by a typical consumer. But the graph is interesting nonetheless. The first example is close, but I would recommend using a few other goods in the basket to incorporate more of the player base's purchases, such as mining equipment, etc. There are two main schools of thought on the causes of inflation. Monetarist believe that the money supply is the single driver of inflation. The more money injected into the economy, the higher the inflation rate. Keynesians believe that aggregate demand is more important. But they also believe that there is a significant relationship between inflation and unemployment. Perhaps the player base has moved more to PVP (unemployed ) which would support the Keynesians. I would love to write and discuss more of this with you all.. but I'm at work. I'll post more in a bit
BoinKlasik Eye of God Axiom Empire	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:06:00 - [36] while i loved the whole blog for all the really fun information. It was missing something that you did directly mention. the GDP. While a totally useless figure, I would like to know the average ammount of money that simply MOVES AROUND on any given day in eve. Perhaps split up toward player to player or npc to player. and DC, thank you for proving that Miners > Ratters :P doh, I broke my edited sig :/ cries this signature was lacking pink, I'll provide it for you. There. Looks better doesn't it? -Eris Fixed it for you. Oh, btw, yarr! ~kieron Didn't I tell you? The damsel moved in with me, we're having a great time. - Wrangler The damsel may not be distressed any more, but how many times does the informant have to be silenced before he gets the message? - Cortes
Erich Stroheim Gallente Federal Navy Academy	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:12:00 - [37] The total number of participants in the economy over time vs isk in the economy over time would show you the degree of inflation taking place. I would say that HAC prices vs number of HAC pilots shows more of a monopoly on production or lack of manufactures keeping up with demand rather then just being a function of more demand for a product by itself.
DigitalCommunist Evolution Band of Brothers	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:14:00 - [38] Originally by: Doc Brown Originally by: DigitalCommunist I have two final questions. Don't you track the amount of ISK in EVE? Wouldn't taking the average amount of ISK in all players wallets from 2003 and comparing it to each year be the best indicator of inflation? Tracking isk in wallet's wouldn't help because alot of it is re-invested to try to make more isk (in BPO's or other schemes). A basket comparision is probably best, but you need a couple of baskets (mining, t2 small ship, t2 big ship, etc). BPOs don't create ISK, they create products which players buy. BPOs are an isk sink, as long as you buy them from the market and not another player. A simple calculation like total ISK in EVE divided by the number of paying accounts would be sufficient. Purchasing Complex Fullerene Shards, contact me ingame.
Harisdrop Gallente RONA Deepspace CORE.	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:17:00 - [39] GTC do not create isk. THe devblog is 3 years late. He posted this cause new science skills are coming. No matter how much isk you have you have a greater chance to win a tech II bpo 2 years ago than today. Tech II ammo will become more valuable as time goes on. AS more people use tech II ammo.
Matthew Caldari BloodStar Technologies	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:18:00 - [40] Originally by: Azariadis The examples in the blog refer to a consumer price index (CPI) which is a measure of the price of a basket of goods by a typical consumer. I would argue that Vagabonds are not purchased by a typical consumer. Which is why the basket used in the blog was a T1 frig with T1 fittings. The vagabond graphs came later in the blog to demonstrate a different point entirely - that there is a strong correlation between the number of HAC skillbooks sold, and the price of a vagabond. Which was kinda showing the point of why a vagabond would be a bad item to put in a general basket. ------- There is no magic Wand of Fixing, and it is not powered by forum whines.

JP Moregain Gallente Moregain Guaranty Trust	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:26:00 - [41] Wow, I cannot believe that no one has recommended: "General Theory of Employment Interest and Money" by John Maynard Keynes Best Regards, JP "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
CrayC Gallente CrayC Inc.	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:36:00 - [42] I read all the Dev Blogs being posted. Some I enjoy because they tell me stuff I need/want to know (preliminary stas on new ships and stuff). Others I like because, although the information in it may not directly affect me and usually is of no ordinary interest to me, it may somehow help me understand this game a bit better. And as we all know, knowledge is power. What really makes me happy about that type of Dev Blog, is that, even though Redundancy mentions that he has no education in economics, he makes it sound very complicated, very high-level and yet, very understandable. I have no clue as to how economics work on a larger scale either, but I understood what he was saying. I have yet to see one Dev Blog from any CCP staff, that contains what I call "who gives a sh.. about this advanced stuff and long dictionary words", that I did not understand, because they are ALWAYS written so that even the "average Joe" can understand most, if not all, of it... In short (ha, too late for THAT): Yay you
JP Moregain Gallente Moregain Guaranty Trust	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:43:00 - [43] Originally by: Andargor theWise Originally by: Doc Brown Demand is vastly outstripping supply with almost all T2 items, hence the uber inflation on those. You don't see that on T1 items because the T1 market isn't based around monopoloies. More like an oligarchy. I think you meant oligopoly. Actually I believe (undocumented of course) that in some cases the BPO's of certain Tech II items(wild guess = hammerhead II's) have all been collected by one entity, which would then actually be a Monopoly. Regardless the market effects could appear very similar to a concentrated Oligopoly so it would be hard to tell externally anyway... "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
Raider Zero Minmatar Federation	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:44:00 - [44] Another major component of economy that is neither measurable nor mentioned, but is highly important is technology. In RL, our world makes slow, steady technological progress, with a television being a good example. It was invented ~ 60 years ago, popular 50 years ago, color 40 years ago, cable enhanced it 25 years ago, satellite popular 10-12 years ago, now digital and plasma and all High Def. BUT it's still a television and cost over time for having television has de-creased. In Eve, every major content patch fundamentally changes the items that are avaiable for purchase. It changes the style of use for the items as well, and the demand responds in kind. Right now, my Heavy Dimishing Nos is quite valuable and in demand. If Kali severely nerfs Nos, it will be junk. It's attributes and fit in the world of eve have fundamentally changed which does not happen in RL. Similarly, there has been beyond exponential population growth in Eve. In RL this could have a myriad of detrimental economic effects. I have lots of thoughts, but two basic points. 1. Given all the possibilities, I think it's safe to say that the CCP team have actually done an outstanding job of keeping the economy under control. To have 4-10% annual inflation is in line with RL inflation where hundreds of professional economists wrestle numbers to try to prevent inflation-to do so in the game without that support is awesome. 2. If you don't like that something is expensive, sit on your isk until either you can afford current price or the price of the item comes down to an acceptable level. The reason that things like HACs cost so much is that people will pay for them-the article clearly says so. If demand rises and supply doesn't, and the people who do the demanding have the means and motivation to buy something then price will climb too. The value of something is whatever is most recently sold for. If people don't like the HAC prices they have options of flying other ships or setting a buy order that they believe is reasonable and hoping that somebody sells at that price. The reason that you see popular items like HACs grow in price by so much in Eve is that in Eve you enjoy the extra time that you put in to 'earn' a HAC. If, in RL, one had to work extremely hard to have a decent car, the cost of cars would come down b/c people would quit buying them since the opportunity cost is too high. When opportunity cost is whether or not to play a game more, then you get people who are frivolous with their money, in this case ISK. I have one other question: Are we ignoring that re-spawning asteroids are also magically created isk? Nobody seems to complain about that, and I assume that this was not a complaint in the early days of Eve either. Truth be told, they are every bit the artificial cash injection that bounties or insurance is because once mined they are pure isk.
Cpt Ghost Danish Freedom Fighters	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:47:00 - [45] I really like this Devblog, gives some sort of reflection on the eco in eve.. However i thought POS fuel would sink more than 3bil a day :) Thats like nothing.. _______________________________________________ Danish Freedom Fighters Vi s°ger nye members ;) Join 'dfreedom' ingame.
Maya Rkell Sebiestor tribe	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:49:00 - [46] Yay, I can just point to this blog in the future when people don't believe me about HAC prices not being inflation driven :)
DigitalCommunist Evolution Band of Brothers	Posted - 2006.08.16 19:53:00 - [47] Quote: Are we ignoring that re-spawning asteroids are also magically created isk? Nobody seems to complain about that, and I assume that this was not a complaint in the early days of Eve either. Truth be told, they are every bit the artificial cash injection that bounties or insurance is because once mined they are pure isk. Minerals have ISK value, but they are not ISK. Converting it from an item in your hangar to a number in your wallet requires selling it. Since they removed NPC mineral buy orders a long time ago, there is no way mining asteroids causes inflation. Overharvesting and underharvesting can cause the value of minerals to change, but the total amount of ISK in EVE is unchanged. Purchasing Complex Fullerene Shards, contact me ingame.
Lokan Dohar Caldari White Nova Industries Interstellar Starbase Syndicate	Posted - 2006.08.16 20:04:00 - [48] Edited by: Lokan Dohar on 16/08/2006 20:06:23 Currently EVE is set-up for high inflation in the T2 market due to the fact that demand is not controlled while supply is controlled. Very bad economic model. Unlike the real world CCP actually can put in and enforce an inflation standard, much akin to what the current U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to do with the target inflation concept. How to help "fix" the economy? Well integrate insurance into the new contract system, thereby taking it out of "fairy isk land" and letting players create their own insurance methods. The new contract system also opens up the possibility of a real "non-scam" bank who would then have the assets necessary to start such an insurance business plan. Make roids as big as ice, but have regeneration occur less often and only of a percentage of the current size. This makes mining more like real life farming or ranching. Make both the regen time period and rate variable so their can be bumper years and dust years. Mak research, research, and not a lottery system, invention is god, and reverse engineering would be a valued compliment. (though in my version of reverse engineering it could be qqite costly indeed, might take ya chopping up 100 HAC's to get a 5 run BPC, then again might get lucky and get a BPO, but with a negative ME and PE to start.) And for further reading may I suggest the "foundation" of modern macro thought: Macroeconomics, 16th Edition Campbell R McConnell, University of Nebraska, Emeritus Stanley L Brue, PACIFIC LUTHERAN UNIVERSITY ¬2005, ISBN 0072982721 Only two ways to go; living fast or dying slow.
JP Moregain Gallente Moregain Guaranty Trust	Posted - 2006.08.16 20:10:00 - [49] Originally by: DigitalCommunist Quote: Are we ignoring that re-spawning asteroids are also magically created isk? Nobody seems to complain about that, and I assume that this was not a complaint in the early days of Eve either. Truth be told, they are every bit the artificial cash injection that bounties or insurance is because once mined they are pure isk. Minerals have ISK value, but they are not ISK. Converting it from an item in your hangar to a number in your wallet requires selling it. Since they removed NPC mineral buy orders a long time ago, there is no way mining asteroids causes inflation. Overharvesting and underharvesting can cause the value of minerals to change, but the total amount of ISK in EVE is unchanged. Absolutely correct, this just involves transferring existing ISK from one player to another. In fact one could easily argue that since the minerals are inputs into the production of ships and other items, the continuous spawning is actually deflationary to the prices of end products like HAC's... If minerals were a truly limited resource then this might be a problem. What are the ISK faucets? 1) NPC mission running for cash rewards (or for requested items for which they pay you cash ) 2) Concord bounties on rats 3) Net insurance payouts (payouts less premiums paid) 4) New player creation (5000 isk = small, but whatever..) others? JP "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
Stephar Amarr Viziam	Posted - 2006.08.16 20:58:00 - [50] Originally by: JP Moregain What are the ISK faucets? 1) NPC mission running for cash rewards (or for requested items for which they pay you cash ) 2) Concord bounties on rats 3) Net insurance payouts (payouts less premiums paid) 4) New player creation (5000 isk = small, but whatever..) others? JP 5) Trade goods (ex - dairy products), or any item that NPC's will pay ISK for

Kirazk	Posted - 2006.08.16 20:58:00 - [51] Originally by: JP Moregain What are the ISK faucets? 1) NPC mission running for cash rewards (or for requested items for which they pay you cash ) 2) Concord bounties on rats 3) Net insurance payouts (payouts less premiums paid) 4) New player creation (5000 isk = small, but whatever..) others? JP 5) NPC Markets. This encompasses: a. Trade runs when buying and selling to NPC's b. Selling item drops to the NPC market Very informative write up. In the next Blog can you elaborate on some of the ideas that may help the obvious supply and demand issues?
Sorela Gallente	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:04:00 - [52] I think one item that would be interesting to look at for inflation is named cargo expanders. The supply of cargo expanders probably hasn't increased drastically on a per capita basis. The demand for them has always been high but also probably hasn't changed drastically. Theoretically if there is a surplus of cash it should be reflected in a large amount of inflation in cargo expander value. Anothing thing I havn't seen mentioned either is while we've been talking about inflation we have not actually talked about the value of an isk. In real life you want things to get cheaper and cheaper. This is a game though where you might want to say that certain items should never be cheap. Yet at the same time you might want the item to be expensive yet not directly because of rarity (like a ship should cost so many hours of work to create or whatever).
ParMizaN Body Count Inc. Mercenary Coalition	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:06:00 - [53] I knew all that :( sig edited for lack of pink really PINK -eris
Cker Heel ISS Logistics Interstellar Starbase Syndicate	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:22:00 - [54] More econo-blogging! Soon please! Originally by: DigitalCommunist Wouldn't taking the average amount of ISK in all players wallets from 2003 and comparing it to each year be the best indicator of inflation? Total ISK in wallets would be fascinating statistic. No, it does not directly indicate if ISK is changing in value (inflating or deflating). The stat you want for that is velocity. If the rate ISK moves around is accelerating, that could indicate secular inflation. Could also mean dreads just got released and pent-up savings are now on the move. GTC sales can raise general price levels because it moves the ISK into the hands of someone who is going to spend it sooner than the original owner. More ISK swirling between wallets than before can raise prices. If the increased velocity is sustained, you could see inflation. What I don't see talked about much is productivity inflation. In the real world, increasing productivity makes everyone better off. In a virtual world, it just means it takes less time to make something or kill something. Everyone clamors for bigger ships, better stats. The end point is players doing tasks in zero time by just entering SQL commands directly into the database. Valar would love that. Inflating abilities will the end the game as surely as inflating prices.
Caethes Adain Minmatar The Descendents	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:29:00 - [55] Been looking forward to a dev blog for what seems ages and....well, I think i'll have to read it again. Most of it went over my head tbh, but it all sounds fascinating none the less. Can the next blog have pictures, please? People dissapoint me. End my dissapointment.
Christopher Scott Caldari Vengeance of the Fallen	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:52:00 - [56] Hello Redundancy. I would enjoy seeing a dev blog that details the economics involved with interceptors costing 7 million isk apeice, exept for the crow, which costs 20 million ISK. Would that be similar to HACs going from 80 million to 200+ million? Please elaborate. B-)
Daiashi Gallente Supernova Security Systems	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:55:00 - [57] This blog and discussion has pretty much restored my faith in the EvE community. It is about the best example I have ever seen of a Dev / company explaning how they are looking at their world and a reasoned follow-up from the players. Props to all for keeping this on-topic and developing the discussion rather than the usual <falme/whine>-fest. To add to the discussion, I have tried to consider the various ISK faucets and sinks I've encountered. Faucets NPC Bounties / Mission rewards Insurance T2 BPO's (as revenue from the BPO > the cost of gaining it, given enough time) COSMOS skillbooks and special base items (I think) Tutorials NPC Trading runs for profit Account Cancellaton Sinks Commincation Charges (100ISK x Average chargeable contacts per day x 364 = ????) Skillbooks Market BPO's NPC Station Fees (offices, research and manufacture) Wardecs CONCORD / Customs Fines NPC Trading runs that make a loss (rare events I hope) I'll try to edit more into the lists as I think of them. Please add your own but remember that any interaction that moves ISK player to player is 'neutral' in terms of the faucet / sink idea. ________________________________________________ The most daring pilot in the Galaxy ~ I FLY NUDE Posting and you
Hakera Minmatar Anari Higard	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:58:00 - [58] Originally by: Christopher Scott I would enjoy seeing a dev blog that details the economics involved with interceptors costing 7 million isk apeice, exept for the crow, which costs 20 million ISK. Would that be similar to HACs going from 80 million to 200+ million? Please elaborate. B-) they are controlled by the same forces, namely demand with artificial supply. The curve of interceptor skills bought vs ceptors bought would repeat a similar correlation.
CaosSpinner	Posted - 2006.08.16 21:58:00 - [59] Edited by: CaosSpinner on 16/08/2006 22:01:37 You Blog was good except that it did not take into account Artificial Pricing or Price-fixing which in a true player driven market can not occur. I could go into detail and use RL examples such as gasoline prices, which if they were set as in the EVE economy would be $20:00 a gallon everywhere in the world instead of ranging from .45 cents in Venezuela to $3:00 in the States to the ungodly price you pay in Europe. You are completely ignoring real supply and demand which not only adjusts price but also inflation. I will also not go into detail how the cost of manufacturing as well as R&D as well as having patents added with competition sets prices. Nor will I go into how a playerÆs time would normally add ISK when manufacturing items which would be balanced by others playerÆs time purchasing consumables. No going into detail on balanced economics would not mean anything because EVE does not have or seem to want a true player driven market. It seems to want a monopolistic market which is an artificially inflated market. The price of HACs is what they are because an artificial monopoly exists. If there were as little as 100 manufacture corps producing them then the price would be 75% of the current price. Keep in mind that this is a game so such monopolies should not exist. Actually I have not seen how many actual HAC BPOs exist but with a player base of 100,000 if 100 bpos existed then that would mean that .1% of players have a BPO (.008% if there is truly only 8 copies). For a game that is an outrageous artificial monopoly. For you younger people who have not had any Economics yet let me put it this way. LetÆs say that I am the only baker anywhere so I can charge whatever I want for my bread. Because I am also the Kings brother no one is allowed to make bread so I also have no competition. In RL this may not be a problem but in a MMOG this is an artificial monopoly. It could only cost me 3 coppers for the ingredients but because I have no competition I charge 100 gold for the bread, the price of bread is artificially inflated. This brings us back to the price of HACS and all T2 items. Because the T2 BPOs were not created using skills such as Reverse Engineering or Prototyping (invention) they are artificially inflated. The problem with your graft is that it completely ignores the addition of new manufacture corps competing for the HAC market. This would not only drive down the prices but also the Inflation. Quote: I have no formal education in Economics, so I'm expecting errors all over the place, and will be very happy if you point them out to me. QFT. Unfortunately you are in the same boat as the rest of the DEVS. If you want an balanced economy, especially without artifical inflation, then you must provide limited means for the players to craft and consume. Most games handle this by requiring levels (you must be Science/Engineering/Industry 4 to make) but all of the other game MFGS know that you can not make a monopolistic economy such as currently exists in EVE. Basically your graft justifying the cost of HACs and inflation would be something I would use to justify raising the price to 150 gold because more people are eating bread. Instead more bakers should be added which would drop the price to coppers where it should be thus dropping both the price and the artificial inflation.
Maya Rkell Sebiestor tribe	Posted - 2006.08.16 22:11:00 - [60] Edited by: Maya Rkell on 16/08/2006 22:12:10 CaosSpinner, IRL there would be one producer and he'd be selling at 2 billion to selected prefered customers and a few military forces... Daiashi, not so with T2 BPO's. They merely shift ISK between players. Moon mining, on the other hand...



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