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Josan Alfuano
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Posted - 2007.02.17 21:51:00 -
[1]
I've been running missions for Trannstellar Shipping while training my learning skills. I currently have a 6.3 standing with a level 4 quality -13 Distribution agent who never sends me into dangerous ground. I know, bad carebear, but right now I don't have a lot of time to devote to Eve while I train skills, and this allows me to build a nice piggy bank while doing research at school.
So I notice that of the 36 missions I've been offered over the past week, 14 of them were kill missions. I can fly a cruiser, but I can't even use medium turrets or armor tank yet. I got through level 2 kill missions with an Arbitrator passively shield tanking, which certainly won't fly on a level 4 drone mission. So I decline kill missions when they are offered, which when I get 3 offered in a row (like today) really starts to hurt standings.
Does higher standing with the agent impact the distribution of missions offered by the agent? Does my higher standing automatically mean more kill missions are sent my way, and if I just refuse a bunch in a row I'll be returned to a more "normal" distribution of missions for this agent type? Or is this just a fluke that demonstrates statistical norms don't apply to specific instances?
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Mastin Dragonfly
Amarr
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Posted - 2007.02.17 21:56:00 -
[2]
The mission type distribution percentages you see listed all over are, far as I know, not official numbers. They are the result of player comparing notes.
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Kumu Honua
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Posted - 2007.02.17 22:47:00 -
[3]
They are also really old notes.
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Dahak2150
Chaos Monkeys
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Posted - 2007.02.18 02:59:00 -
[4]
Sounds like you're just unlucky, and trying to apply the law of small numbers to something.
Just because it's 5% doesn't mean that over any interval you'll have 5%. Over the long run maybe, but certainly not over a mere 36 missions.
Just the other day in my class the teacher handed out a "quiz" with randomly generated answers. I got 11/20 correct, a .046% chance of happening. Sounds like you've gotten that tiny percentage probability of having 14/36 kill missions. Not to mention the 5%, as far as I know, hasn't been confirmed officially.
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gazarsgo
Einherjar Rising
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Posted - 2007.02.18 03:31:00 -
[5]
Edited by: gazarsgo on 18/02/2007 03:28:09
there is no 'law of small numbers', don't be disingenuous. instead, perhaps explaining sample size and standard deviations would be in order. in either case, it's not unlikely for you to get more than 5 kill missions in 100. it's just somewhat improbable :)
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J Valkor
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Posted - 2007.02.18 08:31:00 -
[6]
I wonder what the standard deviation of that "5%" missions is. If I could know that I could tell you with what degree of certainty it falls within the median and you can tell if you are bugged or not.
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hotgirl933
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Posted - 2007.02.18 09:29:00 -
[7]
try over say 220 missions see if it matches up
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Danii
CryoTech
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Posted - 2007.02.20 16:30:00 -
[8]
I'm running lvl 3 courier missions with a Production agent, in order to raise my faction standing. All 28 normal and 1 storyline missions so far have been courier. I just got my 2nd storyline missione, and it's Angel Strike...
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Dahak2150
Chaos Monkeys
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Posted - 2007.02.21 14:02:00 -
[9]
 Originally by: gazarsgo
Edited by: gazarsgo on 18/02/2007 03:28:09
there is no 'law of small numbers', don't be disingenuous. instead, perhaps explaining sample size and standard deviations would be in order. in either case, it's not unlikely for you to get more than 5 kill missions in 100. it's just somewhat improbable :)
Law of small numbers is a joke term when people try to apply probability to a small sample size. As the OP did.
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Kolmogorow
Freedom Resources
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Posted - 2007.02.21 14:42:00 -
[10]
5% kill missions for Distribution agents is simply wrong. They give far less than 50% but much more than 5%. If you want almost only courier missions look for agents in Manufacturing, Production or Archives division.
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Thorozar
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Posted - 2007.02.21 18:27:00 -
[11]
Don't refuse 2 missions within 4 hours and you don't get the standing hit, which is quite massive and will take you a long time to get back. Just find another agent nearby with same corp or perhaps start on another in the mean while.
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kill0rbunny
Caldari
Chimera Intelligence Agency
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Posted - 2007.02.21 21:28:00 -
[12]
Go get yourself a raven, and start making isk.
Simple isn't it?
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I got a portrait now, wheeeee! \o/
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Meha Mott
Minmatar
Heavy Industry Technology and Logistic
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Posted - 2007.02.22 17:46:00 -
[13]
Originally by: kill0rbunny
Go get yourself a raven, and start making isk.
Simple isn't it?
And than ? What shall i do with a Raven?
A Char like this, with 500 points in Gunnery, 0 in Drones and 0 in Missile able to fly Indus, Freighter, an some Cruiser, a lot of points in Industry and Science with a Raven ?
Not so simple, isn't it ? 
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.02.22 18:34:00 -
[14]
I have to say that I've done over 100 missions for mining agents now and not gotten a single MINING mission. I find that rather amusing.
Tanking Setups Compared
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Maxpie
Split Infinity
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Posted - 2007.02.22 18:49:00 -
[15]
I noticed this too, it seems like the combat missions come much more frequentaly than 5% of the time. I think the percentage is higher, not that I am lucky (unlucky?).
On a related note, it seems that when I get the occasional combat mssion from my Production agent, it is almost always one of the hardest ones, like Angel Extravaganza or something. I don't mind as I do them and enjoy them, but it does seem odd.
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