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Dyeadmheet
Caldari
Khanid Aerospace Group
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Posted - 2007.03.18 01:24:00 -
[1]
I've started trying to work out what the base is on the test server using level 1 skills only and no base item or decryptor. So far I've gotten:
Shield Power Relay II - 3 of 7 succeeded - 30%
Anciliary Current Router II - 2 of 11 succeeded - 18%
Have some ships cooking now but they take a day in NPC station labs.
Of course this isn't really enough samples, and the process of gathering samples is kind of slow. I could speed it up a little by building a POS and using POS labs but I'm too lazy :)
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Dyeadmheet
Caldari
Khanid Aerospace Group
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Posted - 2007.03.19 23:34:00 -
[2]
On the test server I'm up to 33 total, 12 succeeded, 21 failed (36% succeeded). Can anyone with knowledge of statistics tell me what the confidence interval is on this?
All of these jobs were run with:
Shield Power Relay BPC(note that all modules are probably the same)
1 run
ME0 PE0
All skills at level 1
no base item
no decryptor
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Dyeadmheet
Caldari
Khanid Aerospace Group
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Posted - 2007.03.21 20:41:00 -
[3]
One interesting thing I did notice on the test server is that with some 1 run BPCs that I used with a +4 run decryptor, the resulting BPC ended up with 4 runs. This seems to imply that with a really low-run input BPC you can end up with a base runs of 0, which then must get rounded up to 1 if there's no decrypter to add to the 0.
I saw some CCC II BPCs on contract in Jita on the real server that also seemed to show the same sort of behavior.
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Dyeadmheet
Caldari
Khanid Aerospace Group
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Posted - 2007.03.31 04:18:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Dyeadmheet on 31/03/2007 04:22:49
I believe that CCP is editing the per-blueprint invention success probability data in the database on individual items to respond to prices that are falling too far. (the "stealth nerf" that everyone is talking about.)
They can't just start deleting datacores, it's pretty difficult to predict what people are going to do with their RP, and we can't just have 1M isk cap charger II's and such all over the place. Also, they need to be able to modify the chance on a per-item basis. They can't just go around increasing the number of datacores needed for various items from day to day to respond to price drops.
This is the only explanation that makes sense to me for some of the job failure rates that I've seen lately. Interestingly enough, the success/fail messages that I see for jobs where only 15% are succeeding are about the same as the ones I see for jobs with a 50% success rate.
As much as I might see some of the logic in this, I think it's a pretty crappy way to tune the system. This is essentially equivalent to GOD sabotaging automobile factories because there are too many cheap cars on the market!
This would also explain why they don't want to provide people with the success probability formula. If they did, they'd have to expose these changing success modifiers or it wouldn't make much sense.
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Dyeadmheet
Caldari
Khanid Aerospace Group
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Posted - 2007.03.31 04:31:00 -
[5]
Another thing: This price protection from God is probably being done in part to help protect T2 BPO owners. If this really is a big factor they should just buy the T2 BPOs back from their owners or something (with pricing based on their contract data) and put everyone on the same system.
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Dyeadmheet
Caldari
Khanid Aerospace Group
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Posted - 2007.04.06 02:52:00 -
[6]
 Originally by: Salvis Tallan
I still believe this base success chance does not change each dt or anything like that(unless its a patch and done on purpose).
I don't think it changes automatically, or that it's changed at EVERY downtime, but I do think that these base success probabilities have been changed on certain items in order to keep their price from dropping "too low."
If core prices drop too far and some items drop too far in price again, these base chances will be changed to compensate.
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Dyeadmheet
Caldari
Khanid Aerospace Group
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Posted - 2007.05.07 14:27:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Pixmo Nostra
OFC the number of attempts is still to small to make it 100% certain, but I must say that the outcome is very similar, and if adding an item with metalevel 2 to the job gives a higher chance of a succesful job, it sure isn't with much. 
My number of attempts is much smaller, but what I'm seeing also suggests that maybe a metalevel 1 or 2 item doesn't really do anything while a metalevel 3 or 4 item has a big impact.
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