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Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.03.26 11:34:00 -
[1]
Ok, just a but of info for the wolfs...
I've found out the following:
There are "base stats" for inveted bpc's. THey are ME -4, PE -4. The decryptor used will modify these base stats. The numbers on the bpc going in to the job doesnt do anything. So no need to go for high, ME/PE prints.
(More here)
Runs have a base to. 1 for ships/rigs and 10 for modules. This number IS modified. You get a base number of runs equal to this formula:
base runs = round.down(bpc runs/max runs of bpc type)
So for ships and tuners only max runs gives you a base of 1. Anything lower will be rounded to 0. Fortunately decryptors will add the runs to 0 and give a print anyways, but invention with no decryptors on anything lower than max run will fail by default. (That should explain the failure of the Covetor tests earlier in this thread...)
For modules the gains for max runs are larger, obviously. But in short, if you want many runs, put in max run bpc's.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.03.26 17:47:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Vladimir Tinakin
However, I've gotten 4 successes on 1-run covetor bpcs (max run is 10), resulting in 1-run hulk bpcs. So the job success is not related to the number of runs--if it succeeds, you get 1 run guaranteed. As for the impact of a max run, you may be correct in that it has no appreciable impact...I have a slave...er, alt...whipping up some max runs while I do different testing on SiSi. One would hope that a max run ship BPC nets you at least one additional run, but if you're right then we'll all be better off using single runs for ship invention.
AH, you get me slightly wrong: My point is that a 9 run is just as good as a 1 run. A 10 run would give you one extra run.
Did you do those jobs without any use of decryptors?
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.03.28 11:04:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Qual on 28/03/2007 11:00:07
Originally by: ShadowRat
...
Huh?
The formula for number of resulting runs goes like this in its full glory:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC*MaxRunsOutputBPC + DecryptorBonusRuns))
MaxRunsOutputBPC is 1 for Ships and Rigs and 10 for modules. Rest should explain itself.
(NOTE I: MaxRunInputBPC is fixed for each blueprint type, and is the same no matter where you copy (station, outpost or POS). And we dont have to consider BPO's as you cant use BPO's for invention.)
(NOTE II: There is no RANDOM or LOTTERY part in this formula. You get the smae results all the time.)
As for ME and PE the formula is very simple:
MEOutputBPC = -4 + DecryptorBonusME
PEOutputBPC = -4 + DecryptorBonusPE
(NOTE I: MEInputBPC and PEInputBPC does not enter into the formula, and thus have no effect on the result. -4 is a constant used instead by EVE.)
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.03.28 15:42:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Khajit Smitty
hows does the max() function work in the above formulae?
if max(a;b) then does it take the bigger of the two numbers?
Correct. It enusres that a succes allways gives at least one run, which seems to be the case.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.03.28 16:08:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Meau
Concerning runs, i nearly fully agree with qual. I just include a 1/10 factor and use actual maxrun numbers of the BPC type(f.e. 10 for T2 cruisers, not 1).
Runs = max(1;Round.Down( (ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC) * (MaxRunsOutputBPC/10) + DecryptorBonusRuns))
Well... Does not really work with rigs and modules. Rigs bpc's can have 1000 runs. Modules usually around 300. That would result in much larger resulting runs using your formula.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.03.29 05:58:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Kylar Renpurs Just something which i'm not sure if people have investigated, but the more you invent something, the less likely it seems you'll have success it seems.
Case example, i did three successful inventions in a row of an item. All had less and less favourable messages as output. I then successfully predicted the fourth attempt would fail. I waited a day, then sent off another attempt, the 5th was successful, but had the same success message as my 3rd attempt, which was the least favourable of the initial success attempts
Considering my current information from TQ (sample base 50+) this is not true. The chance of invention is static, given the same input.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.03.30 08:41:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Sir Emi I can confirm the success rate for modules has been cut in half in the 27 or 28 march downtime, acording to my success data...
Stealth nerf for sure.
With a sample base of 50+ jobs after patch, I can NOT conform this. Im getting the same succesrate now as before.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.03.31 13:03:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Kaven Kantrix So Qual, you seem to have perfectly nailed down exactly what the resulting BPC will be IF your job succeeds. Thats awesome.
Have you figured out the change of actual success/failure?
Many other people have put forth success/failure forumla's, but not you.
Thanks for the vote of onfidence, but actually my formula has a probelm... I working in it. 
Meau was probably right about me missing to factor in the max possible runs of T2 version bpc into the formula.
Once that is done, i'll get to work on the main succes formula. That said, there seems to be a lot of good idea going around allready and my formula would most likely build on that work.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.04.02 21:40:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Vladimir Tinakin Well, thanks to the stealth nerf on invention, my previous success rate datasets are worth exactly two things: Jack and ****. And Jack got podded.
Since then on TQ I've attempted about 10 hulk inventions with no success with 4/4/4 skills and a mixture of Test Reports and Stolen Formulas, and with covetors. I'm a bit peeved.
However, I had a few jobs pending on Singularity. Delivered them (4/3/3 skills there, and the jobs were no decryptor but with a covetor) and got 75% success....so maybe the stealth nerf is rolled back some with the new build? Oveur accidentally misplace the decimal point with the current invention success rate perhaps?
Guess we'll see tomorrow.
Nerf? There has been no nerf. You are experincing really bad luck. It happens.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.04.02 21:44:00 -
[10]
Originally by: CampyloBacter
Has anyone else noticed a decreased chance of success with increasing BPC run size? Or could this just be down to chance?
Chance. I do my module invention using 300 runs. ~70% succes over time. (No change before and after patch. Large sample base of 100+ jobs.)
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
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Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.04.14 19:46:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Phasics Edited by: Phasics on 14/04/2007 08:45:53 Has anyone consider that skills may be like skill for earning RP ?
and that getting that final 5th level of the skill give the biggest boost to the RP/Day
could somthing similar be happening here , I've yet to see much data from people with 5/5/5 or even 4/5/5
also has anyone done testing without decryptors ? from the numbers I would be guess the best outcome would be 10run with -4ME -4PE and a 1x success chance.
migth save people some iskies trying without decrptors ?
Doing jobs without decryptors is indeed a good choise on some modules provided you use max run BPC. And yes, you get the numbers you mention. On ships its less usefull as you only get one run.
And, he, he, all my jobs are 5/5/5. I'm all maxed in R&D/invention skills. Doesn't seem to give me significantly better numbers though.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.05.07 10:51:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Pixmo Nostra
OFC the number of attempts is still to small to make it 100% certain, but I must say that the outcome is very similar, and if adding an item with metalevel 2 to the job gives a higher chance of a succesful job, it sure isn't with much. 
Hm! Interesting! Until this post, all I have seen points to meta having a huge impact. But your numerbs are fairly large, so I cant dismiss it completely. This will need some looking into.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.06.03 19:34:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Chruker Has anybody noticed that the waste factor on the invented blueprints doesn't follow the normal waste factor formula?
Yes.
Read all about it on the site linked in the Invention Indtroduction Guide sticky in this forum. You will find it last in the Advanced Topics part.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.06.04 13:08:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Aykido Invention Formulae
I think you are getting close.
But!
I am not ready to accept that the formula is aware of the job "type" (ship/mod/rig). When I see a formula only based the "reverse engeneering" chance, i'll be happy. (And you are nearly there. Actually it could be modified to be exactly like that with very little efford.)
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.09.24 10:11:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Vladimir Tinakin Best market will be for the +9 run decryptors, I think. The max-run bpcs will just grant +1 to the invention results...potentially not worth it to spend the extra 10-15M on a max run, especially if you're likely to burn through a half dozen+ to get one success.
A series of 1-runs coupled with a +9 should be more profitable in the long run.
The T2 Battleships market will probably be like T2 BC market was when that hit: That is pretty low demad in the beginning due to people still having to get the skills in place.
If you bet your fortune on T2 battleships beeing the next Hulk like item, you are aiming for you foot.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
|
Posted - 2007.09.24 12:46:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro Edited by: Kazuo Ishiguro on 24/09/2007 11:24:50 I'm not sure whether it'll be quite as slow as that; Racial Battleship V is the likely requirement, but thousands of people have already got it trained so that they can use capital ships. BC V is more of a dead end. Also, those people are likely to be quite wealthy 
EDIT: granted, if things like Recon Ships V or Covert Ops V are also needed, there'll be more of a delay...
I've asked Sara Dawn (of http://ineve.net) whether it would be possible to show how many pilots have BS V, including those who don't have carrier/dreadnought skills, but I haven't received a positive response yet.
Well the black ops ship will most likely require more skills than just to actual ship skills to be used (Black Ops Jump gate module etc.)
On top of that I expect them to have at least two if not three lvl 5 requirements to fly. (After all the faction ships require 2 x 8 lvl 5 ranks to fly. Cant see the T2 ships takeing less.)
But history have proven that new ship types based on skill not allready needed have a slow start. (Interceptors where nearly unsellable for 6 months. HAC's also took a long time to really take off. Others like logistics and Cover ops ships just had other thing turning them into slow movers from the start.)
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.10.04 06:06:00 -
[17]
Oh noes! Another lvl 5 sucks conspiracy theroy.
Tinfoilhattery.
When invention started I had 5 in all skills. I have been doing very well for myself doing invention, with avarage slightly above whats been reported in different threads like this one. As one would expect! (Yes, my sample is indeed large enough to be statistical significant! And then some..)
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |

Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.12.12 23:23:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Jenny Wimbishi
The difference between 5/5/5 and 4/4/4 is a little less than 1%. Using the calculator included with eveMEEP, here are the percentages for module/ship invention by skill level assuming the following layout encryp/sci/sci.
You do realize that the guy that makes eveMEEP dont actually KNOW the formula, yes? Noone does. The numbers i've seen suggest that they count for a bit more.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
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