Matthew
Caldari
BloodStar Technologies
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Posted - 2007.05.10 11:54:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Edmund
Yes, there is some bug in some stuff for invention.
3 week ago i make around 5 invention for expanded cargohold II, lost one, 4 win, use same material as now meta item lv 3-4. skills 4-3-3, but my lost was INCREDIBLE !!! ill lost about 11 invention proces on this simple task !!! And i done succesful some others with normal loost rate. I'm think CCP shuld check his scripts and refund materials if there is bug .. but they probably don't do this anyway.
My question :
Anyone can succesfull invented new bpc for expanded cargohold II last days ?
Probability ftw.
Lets say your real base chance of success is 30%. On average that would mean that 3 in every 10 jobs would succeed. But it is not certain that you will see the average performance. Your actual outcome of 10 jobs could range anywhere between 0 (2.82%) and 10 (0.059%) successes The chance of getting 4 succeses and 1 failure with a 30% base success rate is 2.84%. The chance of getting 11 failures in a row is 1.98%. While the chances of these events are fairly low, they are by no means impossible. Given that there are large numbers of players doing invention, it becomes very likely that someone will experience these low-probability events.
The trouble is that a lot of people seem to be trying to determine their base chance using far too small a sample set, and thus getting very inaccurate estimates of their base chance. They are also assuming that every small batch they do should conform to the base chance, which simply isn't the case.
Unfortunately, the simple laws of probability mean that we would need a sample size of many hundreds of jobs to be confident of identifying if something is broken with invention chances, or if they change the base chance.
CCP know the base chances, and they also have access to the outcome of every single invention job run. This gives them the prior knowledge, and a large enough sample set, to know if the system is working as intended or not. In fact, I believe Chronotis stated in his recent blog that monitoring invention is one of his standing orders.
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