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The Suicide Gank Formula

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Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.03 23:29:00 - [1] For anyone and everyone worried about being suicide ganked, this is for you. I've compiled a formula that you can reliably use to determine how likely you are to get suicide ganked. Look no further! Environmental Variables: P = Average number of people along the route (per system) S = Security status of systems you're hauling through D = Number of systems being hauled through J = 1 if traveling through Jita, 0 otherwise Personal Variables Q = average value of your cargo, in millions T = Number of different item types A = 1 if using autopilot, 0 otherwise M = amount of damage your ship can withstand, in thousands R = Signature radius of ship (0.01P(1.5-S)0.2D5J)0.01Q0.5T5A0.05R/0.01M Using this formula, players should be able to reliably predict their chances of being suicide ganked. Anyone whining about it will be asked to perform these calculations and determine what their chances were. In addition, after calculating their chances they can use this as a reference to determine what they could have done differently. Enjoy! P.S. The formula isn't final, feedback is expected and appreciated! ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You* Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.
Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.03 23:37:00 - [2] Reserved. ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.
GenderBender	Posted - 2007.10.04 00:26:00 - [3] Sure would be nice to have an easymode excel sheet like this that actually did something.
Tortun Nahme Minmatar Heimatar Services Conglomerate	Posted - 2007.10.04 00:32:00 - [4] I think the formula looks more like this P=wn^d Originally by: Akita T No, it's a trap ! I can tell from some of the modules and from seeing quite a few traps in my time...
Dalyn Arathon Jericho Fraction The Star Fraction	Posted - 2007.10.04 00:47:00 - [5] Lol. Your signature exceeds the maximum allowed filesize of 24000 bytes -Rauth Kivaro ([email protected])
Selene D'Celeste Caldari The D'Celeste Estate	Posted - 2007.10.04 00:53:00 - [6] Originally by: Tortun Nahme I think the formula looks more like this P=wn^d I couldn't help it, I lol'd. I approve of this product and/or service.
Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.04 00:56:00 - [7] Anyone care to test the formula to make sure it doesn't require any tweaks? ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.
SirMoric	Posted - 2007.10.04 01:11:00 - [8] (0.01P(1.5-S)0.2D5J)0.01Q0.5T5A*0.05R/0.01M According to that formula, you're only to get ganked if you're flying through Jita on autopilot. So to survive all you have to do is avoid Jita, if on autopilot, or fly through Jita not using autopilot. Cause if one of those are 0, you're not gonna get ganked. rgds
Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.04 01:14:00 - [9] Originally by: SirMoric (0.01P(1.5-S)0.2D5J)0.01Q0.5T5A0.05R/0.01M According to that formula, you're only to get ganked if you're flying through Jita on autopilot. So to survive all you have to do is avoid Jita, if on autopilot, or fly through Jita not using autopilot. Cause if one of those are 0, you're not gonna get ganked. rgds Shoot, you're right! I'll adjust the formula accordingly. ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You* Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.
Bellum Eternus Gallente Blood Corsair's	Posted - 2007.10.04 02:35:00 - [10] Originally by: Tortun Nahme I think the formula looks more like this P=wn^d A W E S O M E Bellum Eternus [Vid]Blood Corsairs - Day One
Shanur Minmatar Republic Military School	Posted - 2007.10.04 07:15:00 - [11] One important factor i did not see in this formula is average time to align to warp. In your formula a deep space transport would stand less chance to be ganked than a blockade runner, even though the latter will typically warp out before the attempt could be made.
Robke Trinity Nova KIA Alliance	Posted - 2007.10.04 07:18:00 - [12] "S = Security status of systems you're hauling through" I highly doubt this is significant. I think it should be left out. --------- Do not follow the instructions in this signature.
Shanur Minmatar Republic Military School	Posted - 2007.10.04 07:20:00 - [13] Originally by: Robke "S = Security status of systems you're hauling through" I highly doubt this is significant. I think it should be left out. The closer S is to 1, the fewer shots you get off before CONCORD blows you up.
Blazde 4S Corporation Morsus Mihi	Posted - 2007.10.04 07:25:00 - [14] "I = Time spent idling on a gate at the end of your journey" ... is definitely a factor. _
Deacon Ix Ascendant Strategies Inc.	Posted - 2007.10.04 07:46:00 - [15] LOL - nice1 what about Speed? combined with the Autopilot variable ie if A=0 speed is not an issue, if A=1 speed should be factored in there are two aspects of speed if you in aceptor doing 800m/s to a gate on auto you are less likely to be targetted and ganked but also having a higher speed means slightly more time to accelerate to warp Originally by: Steini OFSI The most efficient way to get a dev response is to have the word beer somewhere in your thread.
OBeE1 Mission Running Manwhores	Posted - 2007.10.04 08:59:00 - [16] Logistics ships ftw.
Rilder Caldari THC LTD Dogs of War.	Posted - 2007.10.04 09:01:00 - [17] I'm gonna go out on a limb here since I fail at math, but, it will always answer 42? --
Ishina Fel Caldari Synergy. Imperial Republic Of the North	Posted - 2007.10.04 09:02:00 - [18] Hmmm... according to this, the chance to get ganked is nearly always above 1, i.e. 100%. For example, if I haul 500M worth of cargo 3 jumps through systems with 30 people in them average in a heavily tanked t1 hauler, the chance is 1300%. Unless you simply forgot to divide by 100 in the end. Then my result would be 0.13, or 13%. Buff room for large link addresses in sigs plz :(
Shinhan Phoenix Knights Dark Nebula Galactic Empire	Posted - 2007.10.04 10:26:00 - [19] Make it in Javascript on some free hosting. Also, how about increasing A multiplier from 4 to... 10? I think being on autopilot is much more dangerous than just flying through Jita. M is effective shield points + effective armor points + effective hull points from EFT? How are normal people supposed to calculate the M? (not impossible, just too much work for people who are actually supposed to use this) Or if M is just the shield points+armor points+hull points, that means you are ignoring shield/armor resistance. How about, instead of M and R make a coefficient depending on ship you are using: -shuttle -untanked t1 transport -tanked t1 transport -tanked blockade runner -tanked BS -tanked command ship -officer tanked command ship -- Selling apples, 1 signature each. ѼѼѼѼѼѼѼ
Kazuo Ishiguro House of Marbles Zzz	Posted - 2007.10.04 10:47:00 - [20] I'd take a different approach: C = value of your fittings + cargo G = cost (after insurance + t1 fittings) of the ships needed to destroy your ship before CONCORD shows up V = probability of suicide attackers noticing your ship on your route Then P = V*[1-e^-(G/C)] My research services Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats
Aaron	Posted - 2007.10.04 10:57:00 - [21] A few variables youve missed out; CL = 1 if pilot has a cloak module, 0 if not. PA = age of pilot in months these need to be added to your equation, as these are factors that seriously affect if your ganked or not good work though,
Aaron	Posted - 2007.10.04 11:01:00 - [22] if CL = 1 then V will be seriously decreased, also if the letter that denotes how many people are along the route is quite high. the end result of the whole formula should tell you that you wont get ganked.
Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.04 11:16:00 - [23] Thanks for all the input guys! I just got up this morning but gimme a couple of hours to drag myself into work and I'll be making a bunch of adjustments to the formula. Keep the feedback coming though! ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.
Dred'Pirate Jesus Amarr Ministry of War	Posted - 2007.10.04 11:26:00 - [24] Input this data and I bet its result is off the chart.. http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=607150 Originally by: David Hackworth ò If you find yourself in a fair fight, you didn't plan your mission properly.
Kazuo Ishiguro House of Marbles Zzz	Posted - 2007.10.04 12:35:00 - [25] Actually, going by the OP's formula, the chance of those COSMOS farmers being ganked is less than 1 in 13000 (if they just stay in that system), mainly due to the fact that the cargo was spread between 6 heavily tanked ships. Going by my version, I make it more like 87.5%, using V = 1, G = 200m per BS to take down x 6 battleships to take each one down = 1.2b and C = 9bn (including all those faction mods. However, the fact that a lot of people have read about it makes it much more likely that someone will have a go My research services Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats
Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.04 13:32:00 - [26] OK, made some adjustments to the formula, now I need people to go out and test it. If you heard or read about a suicide gank that occurred recently, find out what they were flying and carrying and put it into the formula to see what you come up with. Thanks for your continued help! ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.
Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.04 14:32:00 - [27] Alright, I decided to do an example based on this fairly recent suicide gank thread and making some assumptions regarding the victim's ship (a T1 hauler with a speed of 100 m/s, align time of 10 seconds, and with 2000 total HP) and the trip (10 jumps with an average sec. status of 0.8 w/ 100 average population) to calculate his chances of getting ganked: Quote: P = 100 S = .8 D = 10 J = 0 Q = 70 T = 5 A = 1 M = 3000 R = 100 E = 100 L = 10 What were his total chances? 24.5%! Not incredibly likely, but still higher than we should be comfortable with. I think the formula works fairly well so far. However, I still need additional examples and feedback. ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.
Shanur Minmatar Republic Military School	Posted - 2007.10.04 16:03:00 - [28] Is P the number of people in local, or the number of people spotted on overview? (in system vs actually encountered along the route)
Tortun Nahme Minmatar Heimatar Services Conglomerate	Posted - 2007.10.04 17:24:00 - [29] 1/10 on the trolling scale, please go back to the wow forums to hone your skills before you can compete with us big boys Originally by: Akita T No, it's a trap ! I can tell from some of the modules and from seeing quite a few traps in my time...
Tarminic Black Flame Industries	Posted - 2007.10.04 17:28:00 - [30] Originally by: Sean Dillon Get a life That's the best you can do? Weak, man. ------------ Whiners - Unite! \| Posting and You Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist.

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