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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.03 23:29:00 -
[1]
For anyone and everyone worried about being suicide ganked, this is for you. I've compiled a formula that you can reliably use to determine how likely you are to get suicide ganked. Look no further!
Environmental Variables:
P = Average number of people along the route (per system)
S = Security status of systems you're hauling through
D = Number of systems being hauled through
J = 1 if traveling through Jita, 0 otherwise
Personal Variables
Q = average value of your cargo, in millions
T = Number of different item types
A = 1 if using autopilot, 0 otherwise
M = amount of damage your ship can withstand, in thousands
R = Signature radius of ship
(0.01P*(1.5-S)*0.2D*5J)*0.01Q*0.5T*5A*0.05R/0.01M
Using this formula, players should be able to reliably predict their chances of being suicide ganked. Anyone whining about it will be asked to perform these calculations and determine what their chances were. In addition, after calculating their chances they can use this as a reference to determine what they could have done differently. Enjoy!
P.S. The formula isn't final, feedback is expected and appreciated!
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Whiners - Unite! | Posting and You
Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.03 23:37:00 -
[2]
Reserved. 
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Whiners - Unite! | Posting and You
Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
GenderBender
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Posted - 2007.10.04 00:26:00 -
[3]
Sure would be nice to have an easymode excel sheet like this that actually did something.
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Tortun Nahme
Minmatar
Heimatar Services Conglomerate
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Posted - 2007.10.04 00:32:00 -
[4]
I think the formula looks more like this
P=wn^d
 Originally by: Akita T
No, it's a trap ! I can tell from some of the modules and from seeing quite a few traps in my time...
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Dalyn Arathon
Jericho Fraction
The Star Fraction
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Posted - 2007.10.04 00:47:00 -
[5]
Lol.
Your signature exceeds the maximum allowed filesize of 24000 bytes -Rauth Kivaro ([email protected]) |
Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Estate
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Posted - 2007.10.04 00:53:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Tortun Nahme
I think the formula looks more like this
P=wn^d
I couldn't help it, I lol'd.
I approve of this product and/or service.
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 00:56:00 -
[7]
Anyone care to test the formula to make sure it doesn't require any tweaks?
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Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
SirMoric
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Posted - 2007.10.04 01:11:00 -
[8]
(0.01P*(1.5-S)*0.2D*5J)*0.01Q*0.5T*5A*0.05R/0.01M
According to that formula, you're only to get ganked if you're flying through Jita on autopilot.
So to survive all you have to do is avoid Jita, if on autopilot, or fly through Jita not using autopilot.
Cause if one of those are 0, you're not gonna get ganked.
rgds
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 01:14:00 -
[9]
Originally by: SirMoric
(0.01P*(1.5-S)*0.2D*5J)*0.01Q*0.5T*5A*0.05R/0.01M
According to that formula, you're only to get ganked if you're flying through Jita on autopilot.
So to survive all you have to do is avoid Jita, if on autopilot, or fly through Jita not using autopilot.
Cause if one of those are 0, you're not gonna get ganked.
rgds
Shoot, you're right! I'll adjust the formula accordingly.
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Whiners - Unite! | Posting and You
Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Bellum Eternus
Gallente
Blood Corsair's
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Posted - 2007.10.04 02:35:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Tortun Nahme
I think the formula looks more like this
P=wn^d
A W E S O M E
Bellum Eternus
[Vid]Blood Corsairs - Day One |
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Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.04 07:15:00 -
[11]
One important factor i did not see in this formula is average time to align to warp. In your formula a deep space transport would stand less chance to be ganked than a blockade runner, even though the latter will typically warp out before the attempt could be made. |
Robke
Trinity Nova
KIA Alliance
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Posted - 2007.10.04 07:18:00 -
[12]
"S = Security status of systems you're hauling through"
I highly doubt this is significant. I think it should be left out.
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Do not follow the instructions in this signature. |
Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.04 07:20:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Robke
"S = Security status of systems you're hauling through"
I highly doubt this is significant. I think it should be left out.
The closer S is to 1, the fewer shots you get off before CONCORD blows you up.
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Blazde
4S Corporation
Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2007.10.04 07:25:00 -
[14]
"I = Time spent idling on a gate at the end of your journey"
... is definitely a factor.
_
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Deacon Ix
Ascendant Strategies Inc.
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Posted - 2007.10.04 07:46:00 -
[15]
LOL - nice1
what about Speed? combined with the Autopilot variable
ie if A=0 speed is not an issue, if A=1 speed should be factored in
there are two aspects of speed if you in aceptor doing 800m/s to a gate on auto you are less likely to be targetted and ganked but also having a higher speed means slightly more time to accelerate to warp
Originally by: Steini OFSI
The most efficient way to get a dev response is to have the word beer somewhere in your thread.
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OBeE1
Mission Running Manwhores
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Posted - 2007.10.04 08:59:00 -
[16]
Logistics ships ftw.
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Rilder
Caldari
THC LTD
Dogs of War.
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Posted - 2007.10.04 09:01:00 -
[17]
I'm gonna go out on a limb here since I fail at math, but, it will always answer 42?
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Ishina Fel
Caldari
Synergy.
Imperial Republic Of the North
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Posted - 2007.10.04 09:02:00 -
[18]
Hmmm... according to this, the chance to get ganked is nearly always above 1, i.e. 100%. For example, if I haul 500M worth of cargo 3 jumps through systems with 30 people in them average in a heavily tanked t1 hauler, the chance is 1300%.
Unless you simply forgot to divide by 100 in the end. Then my result would be 0.13, or 13%.
Buff room for large link addresses in sigs plz :( |
Shinhan
Phoenix Knights
Dark Nebula Galactic Empire
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Posted - 2007.10.04 10:26:00 -
[19]
Make it in Javascript on some free hosting.
Also, how about increasing A multiplier from 4 to... 10?
I think being on autopilot is much more dangerous than just flying through Jita.
M is effective shield points + effective armor points + effective hull points from EFT?
How are normal people supposed to calculate the M? (not impossible, just too much work for people who are actually supposed to use this)
Or if M is just the shield points+armor points+hull points, that means you are ignoring shield/armor resistance.
How about, instead of M and R make a coefficient depending on ship you are using:
-shuttle
-untanked t1 transport
-tanked t1 transport
-tanked blockade runner
-tanked BS
-tanked command ship
-officer tanked command ship
--
Selling apples, 1 signature each.
ѼѼѼѼѼѼѼ |
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.10.04 10:47:00 -
[20]
I'd take a different approach:
C = value of your fittings + cargo
G = cost (after insurance + t1 fittings) of the ships needed to destroy your ship before
CONCORD shows up
V = probability of suicide attackers noticing your ship on your route
Then
P = V*[1-e^-(G/C)]
My research services
Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
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Aaron
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Posted - 2007.10.04 10:57:00 -
[21]
A few variables youve missed out;
CL = 1 if pilot has a cloak module, 0 if not.
PA = age of pilot in months
these need to be added to your equation, as these are factors that seriously affect if your ganked or not 
good work though,
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Aaron
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Posted - 2007.10.04 11:01:00 -
[22]
if CL = 1 then V will be seriously decreased, also if the letter that denotes how many people are along the route is quite high. the end result of the whole formula should tell you that you wont get ganked.
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 11:16:00 -
[23]
Thanks for all the input guys! I just got up this morning but gimme a couple of hours to drag myself into work and I'll be making a bunch of adjustments to the formula. Keep the feedback coming though!
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Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Dred'Pirate Jesus
Amarr
Ministry of War
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Posted - 2007.10.04 11:26:00 -
[24]
Input this data and I bet its result is off the chart.. 
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=607150
Originally by: David Hackworth
ò If you find yourself in a fair fight, you didn't plan your mission properly.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.10.04 12:35:00 -
[25]
Actually, going by the OP's formula, the chance of those COSMOS farmers being ganked is less than 1 in 13000 (if they just stay in that system), mainly due to the fact that the cargo was spread between 6 heavily tanked ships.
Going by my version, I make it more like 87.5%, using V = 1, G = 200m per BS to take down x 6 battleships to take each one down = 1.2b and C = 9bn (including all those faction mods.
However, the fact that a lot of people have read about it makes it much more likely that someone will have a go
My research services
Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 13:32:00 -
[26]
OK, made some adjustments to the formula, now I need people to go out and test it. If you heard or read about a suicide gank that occurred recently, find out what they were flying and carrying and put it into the formula to see what you come up with. Thanks for your continued help!
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Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 14:32:00 -
[27]
Alright, I decided to do an example based on this fairly recent suicide gank thread and making some assumptions regarding the victim's ship (a T1 hauler with a speed of 100 m/s, align time of 10 seconds, and with 2000 total HP) and the trip (10 jumps with an average sec. status of 0.8 w/ 100 average population) to calculate his chances of getting ganked:
Quote:
P = 100
S = .8
D = 10
J = 0
Q = 70
T = 5
A = 1
M = 3000
R = 100
E = 100
L = 10
What were his total chances? 24.5%! Not incredibly likely, but still higher than we should be comfortable with. I think the formula works fairly well so far. However, I still need additional examples and feedback.
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Whiners - Unite! | Posting and You
Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.04 16:03:00 -
[28]
Is P the number of people in local, or the number of people spotted on overview? (in system vs actually encountered along the route) |
Tortun Nahme
Minmatar
Heimatar Services Conglomerate
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Posted - 2007.10.04 17:24:00 -
[29]
1/10 on the trolling scale, please go back to the wow forums to hone your skills before you can compete with us big boys
Originally by: Akita T
No, it's a trap ! I can tell from some of the modules and from seeing quite a few traps in my time...
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 17:28:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Sean Dillon
Get a life
That's the best you can do? Weak, man.
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Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
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Tortun Nahme
Minmatar
Heimatar Services Conglomerate
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Posted - 2007.10.04 17:30:00 -
[31]
Hey, its my job to rate the trolls, you trying to steal my job? 
Originally by: Akita T
No, it's a trap ! I can tell from some of the modules and from seeing quite a few traps in my time...
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 17:44:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Tortun Nahme
Hey, its my job to rate the trolls, you trying to steal my job?
How can one rate ones kin, grasshopper? 
Anyway, stop derailing my thread. 
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Whiners - Unite! | Posting and You
Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Rhaegor Stormborn
Pestilent Industries Amalgamated
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Posted - 2007.10.04 17:46:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Tortun Nahme
I think the formula looks more like this
P=wn^d
Rofl.
Rhaegor Stormborn
Fleet Admiral - Pestilent Industries Amalgamated
[PIA] Recruitment Thread |
Aaron
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Posted - 2007.10.04 19:08:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Sean Dillon
Get a life
 , cmon man its just a little fun.
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.04 21:27:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Aaron
Originally by: Sean Dillon
Get a life
, cmon man its just a little fun.
I disagree, I'm actually hoping this formula can be a reliable predictor of suicide ganks.
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Whiners - Unite! | Posting and You
Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.05 08:32:00 -
[36]
I decided to make it a learning project for .NET programming. I am still figuring out some stuff on the front end (might just chuck out a simple unvalidated form for now), but then we should be able to test it out using some common ship stats (like an Itty V full of Zydrine vs an inty with a few large run T2 BPC's).
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.05 16:58:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Shanur
I decided to make it a learning project for .NET programming. I am still figuring out some stuff on the front end (might just chuck out a simple unvalidated form for now), but then we should be able to test it out using some common ship stats (like an Itty V full of Zydrine vs an inty with a few large run T2 BPC's).
Are you going to put it into a form we can view online? If so let me know and I'll link it, it's faster than doing all the calculations ourselves.
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Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
iLoveYour TastyNoobTears
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Posted - 2007.10.05 19:02:00 -
[38]
Originally by: Sean Dillon
Get a life
Shut yer *****ng mouth |
Occara
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Posted - 2007.10.05 19:08:00 -
[39]
This is a novel approach to a curve fit....
Making up an equation with no data.
use this formula to rate the value of your thread
-50*A + 10 = V
V is the thread value (no units, of course! maybe libraries of congress over time?)
A is 1 if it is this thread, else A is 0.
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Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.05 19:18:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Tarminic
Originally by: Shanur
I decided to make it a learning project for .NET programming. I am still figuring out some stuff on the front end (might just chuck out a simple unvalidated form for now), but then we should be able to test it out using some common ship stats (like an Itty V full of Zydrine vs an inty with a few large run T2 BPC's).
Are you going to put it into a form we can view online? If so let me know and I'll link it, it's faster than doing all the calculations ourselves.
I'll first make a simple Windows form to test the component(shouldnt be much longer now that i figured out how to validate). Then i'll transform the front end into an ASPX ( don't have a place to host it though). The actual calculator is in a class assembly to make it portable.
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Mr Li
The Graduates
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Posted - 2007.10.05 20:13:00 -
[41]
and thus began Psychohistory.
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Jimer Lins
Gallente
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Posted - 2007.10.05 21:18:00 -
[42]
If you put this together as an ASP.NET app (ASPX) I'll host it on my server, as long as I can build it myself from source (security reasons). And you get my feedback if you want it; I'm a professional .NET dev. ;)
--
EVE Glossary
Exploration Video |
Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.05 23:02:00 -
[43]
I got a working windows solution, but i am not convinced at the moment that i got the formula in correct. None the less i plan to make the web interface this weekend.
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Daelin Blackleaf
No Joy Corp
Phalanx Alliance
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Posted - 2007.10.05 23:06:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Mr Li
and thus began Psychohistory.
Heheheh
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.06 03:43:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Shanur
I decided to make it a learning project for .NET programming. I am still figuring out some stuff on the front end (might just chuck out a simple unvalidated form for now), but then we should be able to test it out using some common ship stats (like an Itty V full of Zydrine vs an inty with a few large run T2 BPC's).
Nice, I've been learning C# myself for my Senior Design project.
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Kannuk
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Posted - 2007.10.06 03:56:00 -
[46]
so you're making this to prove that CCP needs to nerf suicide ganking to hell right? thanks.
I think we can all agree suicide ganking is a noobish thing to do with no risk for lots of gain. it should therefor fall out of CCP's formula for as a reasonable source of income and be labelled an exploit.
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.06 04:30:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Kannuk
so you're making this to prove that CCP needs to nerf suicide ganking to hell right? thanks.
I think we can all agree suicide ganking is a noobish thing to do with no risk for lots of gain. it should therefor fall out of CCP's formula for as a reasonable source of income and be labelled an exploit.
Not at all actually, I think suicide ganking is prefectly acceptable.
If you notice the formula, the majority of factors are controllable by the person flying the ship and are very obvious things like value of items, number of item types, security status, etcetera.
Whenever someone whine about a suicide gank i can just plug their information into this formula and show them exactly why it happened and what they could have done to prevent it.
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Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.08 12:28:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Tarminic
Originally by: Shanur
I decided to make it a learning project for .NET programming. I am still figuring out some stuff on the front end (might just chuck out a simple unvalidated form for now), but then we should be able to test it out using some common ship stats (like an Itty V full of Zydrine vs an inty with a few large run T2 BPC's).
Nice, I've been learning C# myself for my Senior Design project.
And i am learning it myself because my job requires it (i am in software development myself). I still can't get the value your example gave (maybe you mis calculated), but at least i got a more reasonable figure when i discarded the "in thousands of HP" part of the tank parameter. The Windows application is done, and the calculator itself is in an assembly DLL. I had some problems accessing it from the web page, but i think i might have messed up with the namespace. Once it is completed i'll contact Jimer to put it online (since he offered to host it). It won't be pretty (i am a developer, not a web designer. I just make stuff that works and let someone else worry about making it look pretty), but it should work well enough.
And yeah. My own hope is that it provides ammo to both sides discussing suicide gank balance. To the opponents if the value is high (person took too much risk), to the advocates if the value is low (treshold to make it viable is too low then). In my own opinion suicide ganks are a necessary part of EVE, with the only thing out of whack right now is that the cost to gank may be too low compared to the rewards to be had (since most of the ganker's cost is refunded trough insurance). Raising that treshold a little(ganking in high sec SHOULD only return more than it costs if the hauler was careless enough to carry more than the ships needed to gank it cost) may make it a bit more reasonable.
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Tarminic
Black Flame Industries
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Posted - 2007.10.08 12:42:00 -
[49]
Originally by: Shanur
And i am learning it myself because my job requires it (i am in software development myself). I still can't get the value your example gave (maybe you mis calculated), but at least i got a more reasonable figure when i discarded the "in thousands of HP" part of the tank parameter. The Windows application is done, and the calculator itself is in an assembly DLL. I had some problems accessing it from the web page, but i think i might have messed up with the namespace. Once it is completed i'll contact Jimer to put it online (since he offered to host it). It won't be pretty (i am a developer, not a web designer. I just make stuff that works and let someone else worry about making it look pretty), but it should work well enough.
Hard to say where the error may lie honestly - I didn't really design the formula with an upper limit of 100% (too much effort ) but I figured that anything greater than 100% would simply indicate the severe lack of foresight by the gankee, heh.
I know what you mean regarding interfaces...I'm a web designer as well, but I've spend a lot of time training myself not to design interfaces like the engineer I am.
Quote:
And yeah. My own hope is that it provides ammo to both sides discussing suicide gank balance. To the opponents if the value is high (person took too much risk), to the advocates if the value is low (treshold to make it viable is too low then). In my own opinion suicide ganks are a necessary part of EVE, with the only thing out of whack right now is that the cost to gank may be too low compared to the rewards to be had (since most of the ganker's cost is refunded trough insurance). Raising that treshold a little(ganking in high sec SHOULD only return more than it costs if the hauler was careless enough to carry more than the ships needed to gank it cost) may make it a bit more reasonable.
Agreed completely - the idea behind this formula isn't to flame or mock, but to indicate exactly why the person in question was ganked.
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Tarminic - Forum Warfare Specialist. |
Shanur
Minmatar
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2007.10.09 08:10:00 -
[50]
Originally by: Tarminic
Hard to say where the error may lie honestly - I didn't really design the formula with an upper limit of 100% (too much effort ) but I figured that anything greater than 100% would simply indicate the severe lack of foresight by the gankee, heh.
To be honest, i think making it an index would work better than a percentage, simply because there is no ceiling value above which you have 100% certainty you are going to be ganked (well, unless you are adding a checkbox that you are broadcasting in local that you are flying an untanked cargo enhanced itty 5 full of megacycte on AP and that Privateers are little diaper wearing pansies in every system you enter on your way to Jita, perhaps ).
Setting a base value of a configuration that typically has an "acceptable risk" of being ganked and relating all other values as to being n times as likely to be ganked as that situation may work better. This would however require a lot of statistical analysis to tweak the formula as not only would the values need to be modified differently, but they would also affect each other (cargo value and people in system tend to be negligeble if you are flying your stuff in a Probe because you'll align before you get cargo scanned and only a spy or a fool would use SB's in empire space). I'll make sure to mail you the source code of the calculator assembly so you can tweak the formula if you decide to go that far though.
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