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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.07 16:50:00 -
[1]
Expected returns of 3% are just no where near the level I'd require to participate. I know it could go higher... but it would have to more than double for me to start thinking about it.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.07 17:25:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: Block Ukx
Originally by: Shadarle
Expected returns of 3% are just no where near the level I'd require to participate. I know it could go higher... but it would have to more than double for me to start thinking about it.
This is not a ôBondö Fund and there is no minimum guaranteed return. ItÆs a ôGrowthö Fund; you will get whatever returns the Fund makes. The 3% is based on a simple model buying directly from the market using 2006 average daily mineral prices.
I do understand this. But it is yet another thing I dislike when investing. I dislike growth investments in general (there are exceptions). I'd much rather get all the profits returned in dividends. Especially with a 300 billion IPO I don't think I'd want it growing any larger.
This is just the way I personally feel, I'm sure many others feel differently. But even if I knew there were 6% guaranteed returns I wouldn't definitely invest, yet the best guess atm is 3% returns with the hopes of 6-7%. That is simply too low for me these days, I've had my expectations raised. I want hopes to be 10%+ and expectations to be 6-7% minimum. Others won't be as demanding as I am though 
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.07 17:38:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Block Ukx
but that is simply impossible in the mineral market.
I have to disagree here. I happen to know it isn't even hard to achieve. Though I've tried a bit less than 300 billion, it just argues the point that such large sums probably shouldn't be used.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.07 17:51:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Block Ukx
Originally by: Shadarle
I happen to know it isn't even hard to achieve. Though I've tried a bit less than 300 billion, it just argues the point that such large sums probably shouldn't be used.
Well, I agree with you. If you can make 10% ôgrowthö and scale it into the 100Æs of billions then you shouldnÆt invest here.
I guess it depends what you're trying to achieve. If you want to give large returns then 300 billion is way too much. If you want to do something big that no one has done before then 300 billion is not enough (ISSO has done 300 bil).
But shareholders should know that having 300 billion will mean lower returns than if you had say 100 billion and lower still than having 50 billion, etc.
So it's a trade-off between returns and "wow".
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.07 18:03:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Block Ukx
Originally by: Shadarle
I guess it depends what you're trying to achieve. If you want to give large returns then 300 billion is way too much. If you want to do something big that no one has done before then 300 billion is not enough (ISSO has done 300 bil).
But shareholders should know that having 300 billion will mean lower returns than if you had say 100 billion and lower still than having 50 billion, etc.
So it's a trade-off between returns and "wow".
I thought is clearly stated it in the OP.
"IÆm interested in raising a large amount of ISK (~ 1-2 Trillion) with the purpose of manipulating the mineral market."
The 300 B is a starting point, not the end point.
Indeed, but this runs counter to the goals of a regular investor. An investor generally wants profit. The more money you have the more you can manipulate the market, but the more money you have the harder it will be to make a good return.
Hopefully you'll be able to find people willing to invest 300 billion for your 3-6% profits. I'll stop posting here as I will only hurt your efforts it seems.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.07 21:44:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Letias
It might be what you want but how likley are you to get it?
Lets see... finding 300 people or finding 6-10 people. Seems like 6-10 is easier.
300 people don't even read this forum regularly, heh.
If this seemed very profitable he'd have no problem getting 30-50 billion from 6-10 people.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.08 18:17:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Shadarle on 08/11/2007 18:19:27
For any sort of price manipulation to work it has to be done in multiple regions and on some (not all) of the minerals.
Trit is the easiest to manipulate as it is the hardest to haul around in large quantities. If you buy out a billion trit from the market it will take a long time for that much to get hauled back... and people will pay an inflated price in that period.
Unfortunately trit still has a price ceiling, making it not worth doing this to.
The reason to have 300 billion or 1 trillion isk is not to cause a bubble but to keep the bubble inflated for a set period of time until you can sell off all your stuff at the inflated price. You do this for half of the minerals and hold it for several days if not a week in multiple regions. This causes the other minerals to start dipping in price to keep the basket price from jumping too far. As those dip low enough to let the bubble burst and you buy up mass quantities of all the other minerals instead and watch the whole situation reverse itself.
Rinse and repeat. You just need a massive amount of money to be able to manipulate the market across multiple regions and to be able to hold the manipulation for a long enough time that it effects the other minerals.
The only reason I'm giving this much away is because I don't think this will actually occur. Only people with 100+ billion could even attempt it... so I'm not worried about random people trying this.
But I see this being worth about 20-30% on each swing, which would take a week or two. So I would imagine if done correctly the returns would be in the 50% range monthly. It's WAYYYY too risky to do it for a meagerly 3-6% return as you could just as easily try this just as 20 freighter loads of high end minerals come in and overwhelm you.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.08 19:20:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Block Ukx
Originally by: Shadarle
But I see this being worth about 20-30% on each swing, which would take a week or two. So I would imagine if done correctly the returns would be in the 50% range monthly. It's WAYYYY too risky to do it for a meagerly 3-6% return as you could just as easily try this just as 20 freighter loads of high end minerals come in and overwhelm you.
You will be buying shares, so if you are correct and earnings are that hi you will receive them. IÆm going to distribute the profits. This is NOT a Bond offer.
The question is if you'd be doing the same thing I discussed or if you had other plans.
The only reason it would be hard to make 30% profit would be a lack of minerals to buy up, thus unused capital. If you maintained the bubble with 1/2 your money then the returns would only be 15%.
I honestly think 300 billion is overkill unless you're trading across every region in safe space and manipulating them all at the same time. In which case you may need that much if you try to hold prices steady for more than a few days.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.08 21:16:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Block Ukx
There wonÆt be any mass hauling
Not sure if this was meant as a differentiation from my idea. But my strategy involved no hauling either. It seems to me any hauling would just be a LOT of work.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.09 04:30:00 -
[10]
Originally by: tornpain
Obviously you pick an item with less volume. Do I have to do all the work for this for you and your alt?
LOL at the idea that FL is the alt of the OP.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.09 05:00:00 -
[11]
Originally by: tornpain
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: tornpain
Obviously you pick an item with less volume. Do I have to do all the work for this for you and your alt?
WTS: clues, by the cartload. Complementary cluebats and cluehammers included.
The mineral market is NOT like "any other market".
"Insights" you gather over price manipulation in any other markets DO NOT apply verbatim to the mineral market.
Here's a clue for you: focusing on a pair of minerals might indeed involve less than 300 billion in volume. Or even a different hub, zomgs~!
In the future please feel free to convo me with similar brilliant additions to the discussion so that I may berate you more directly and appropriately -- I've added you to my address book so you may do so without CSPA charge.
How interesting that another person equally annoying has the same first letter in his name. I'm curious, have you had problems with dancing staplers?
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.09 05:12:00 -
[12]
Originally by: tornpain
Originally by: Shadarle
I'm curious, have you had problems with dancing staplers?
What sort of epicurean delight lies buried in this subject? I might have to charge you isk for continuing this line of discussion.
Do you honestly think you sound enlightened or intelligent using words like epicurean? I'm as much a fan of hedonistic delights as the next guy, more so perhaps, but I fail to see the point in bringing it up on these forums, thus I plan never to mention it.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.09 16:21:00 -
[13]
Originally by: tornpain
Lonetrek only did 3.5B, 5.3B, and 2.8B in tritanium the previous three days. Region-wide. How's that translate to 5-40 billion in a single system?
Your numbers are completely fictitious.
Because as soon as you start to manipulate the price, buying out all orders below a certain point, other people will start hauling in greater quantities of that mineral. The amount sold for that day will be far greater than a "normal" day.
You should know this as you claim to have done it yourself, which I somehow doubt. People who have actually done this know that you have to at least double the normal traded quantity of a mineral per day if you want to manipulate the market very well. I personally would want 10 times the regularly traded amount at minimum, so I could sustain the manipulation a little longer if I had to.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.09 18:34:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Kilda Shepp
Originally by: tornpain
Originally by: Shadarle
buying out all orders below a certain point
This is pretty much the dumbest way to get your start in market manipulation.
I flooded enough pyerite to clear the buy orders down to my target level, put up my own buy order, and undercut the lowest sells for a 37% spread. I get my minerals somewhere between the highest buy order and my target level. It really works best when there's a thin level of demand, as I noticed has been the case during the week in Rens lately. I could have kept going but I ran out of cheap pyerite to dump into the buy orders and I spent my freighter money on poker. 
You need to come back when you've spent more then 5 minutes looking at the Market screen. Filling buy orders doesn't lower the sell orders price, all it does is give a larger spread. A spread in which will be filled by sell orders. You're manipulating the wrong side.
If you place a cheap sell order others will most likely undercut you by 0.01 isk. You can't manipulate people who HAVE the product already. It's much easier to manipulate the people who have the ISK but not the product.
Not to mention that if he actually knew how to manipulate a market effectively he wouldn't be so short on money he couldn't afford a freighter.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.14 21:29:00 -
[15]
Originally by: tornpain
Originally by: Hanoi Hana
Maybe I've been looking at this thread through the wrong sunglasses, but I'm not fully confident that this business venture is more worthwhile than many others.
I say this about every public EVE IPO I've ever read. I'm not sure this argument holds much water; obviously many people are interested in any sort of return involving none of their own time and effort.
But I also happen to know you do not have all that much money personally, so you don't really fall into the category of someone who has to find uses for large chunks of money that would otherwise sit idle.
I also wondered why this moved in the IPO stage already when it really didn't seem to be getting luke-warm support at best. I don't quite know who will be investing in this. But perhaps there are enough people who will settle for 3-6% expected returns (in a fairly risky venture) to launch this. I'll see what the final draft of the IPO says to see if there is any reason a large investor would want to buy into it.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.14 23:49:00 -
[16]
Originally by: SiJira
Originally by: Shadarle
I also wondered why this moved in the IPO stage already when it really didn't seem to be getting luke-warm support at best. I don't quite know who will be investing in this. But perhaps there are enough people who will settle for 3-6% expected returns (in a fairly risky venture) to launch this. I'll see what the final draft of the IPO says to see if there is any reason a large investor would want to buy into it.
you agreed earlier that most people will invest in a known name for 5% or less
its a fact that there are not enough ipos to invest in compared to the investors lately
Sure, if it is ISSO obviously there are some people willing to get 5%. Ionia, Ricdic, DS, PP, and tons of others could easily get a fair bit of investors at 5% I'm sure. I didn't say anyone who posts on these forums could get 5%. Plus this isn't even guaranteed 5%. It is a guess of 3-6%... but there is even a chance you'll lose a ton. So this is nothing close to what I've ever referred to in the past.
I've already said there is a chance he will get enough investors to move forward. I will never discount that there is a chance people will invest in a new venture that seems "cool". I just doubt any massive investors will chip in and I know I am very unlikely to.
I would have been far more interested if it was done by allowing large investors to buy their own minerals based on directions from Block. But that is not how it is going to be done.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.15 02:53:00 -
[17]
Originally by: tornpain
Originally by: Shadarle
I would have been far more interested if it was done by allowing large investors to buy their own minerals based on directions from Block. But that is not how it is going to be done.
What price would you be willing to pay Block for this service?
I have no clue. Honestly it doesn't seem like he is in it for the money, he seems to want to try to impact the entire market with his actions. But it would be beneficial for all parties to do so. It's a pointless discussion atm though as this is not the direction things are going.
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