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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.08 14:53:00 -
[1]
funny enough i think minerals do both too much volume to be susceptible to manipulation given the hard caps CCP has put in on prices -- you'll only sell trivial amounts above the hard caps to the ignorant -- and also not enough volume to liquidate your holdings fast enough if/once you do establish a price bubble.
your market data doesn't show you which stations those minerals are moving through. you need to capture order activity in quasi-realtime and this is easily manipulated (even unintentionally) by people cancelling orders.
if you focused on manipulating supply you could make some money, but you do it easily with very minute fractions of a trillion isk ;)
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.08 14:55:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: Block Ukx
it is about taking advantage of the market inefficiency.
to expand on my comment about the market research you've done;
i think your data shows a fictional inefficiency. none of your posts make it sound like you've actually watched mineral buy and sell orders for very long.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.08 16:03:00 -
[3]
Let me back up a bit.
Originally by: Block Ukx
In order for this to work, I need a large sum of ISK. For instance, in Metropolis alone 300 Billion ISK in minerals was traded last month.
The latter doesn't prove the former, and in fact hurts your argument.
And from the original thread:
Originally by: Block Ukx
I think the great appeal of this venture is its nature; to control and manipulate the mineral market. Looking at the size of this market, 100 Billion wonĈt do it.
How are you calculating your isk requirements, exactly?
Basically any trader in the reprocessing line of work "manipulates" the mineral market, and we all do it very successfully with much, much less isk, with much greater theoretical profit, though potential profit certainly hits an isk ceiling on a per-region basis.
You have to also figure that any meddling eventually will put more and more economic incentive on people to compete on the supply side rather than simply satisfying the demand side...
I guess the point I'm trying to make is you must be really bad at what you do (or are trying to do) if it takes you a trillion isk to completely dominate a region.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.08 17:59:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Block Ukx
Originally by: tornpain
How are you calculating your isk requirements, exactly?
300 billion is based on Metroplis monthly trades. Some have argued that I would need less. I have no way to know the exact amount needed to observe the changes IĈm looking for, but I would think 300 B should be enough to start with.
You presented 300 billion as the isk-volume traded in minerals through Metropolis in a month.
I am pretty sure you can do whatever you intend to do with as little as 3 billion isk per mineral, based on my personal experience in trading in the mineral markets -- I've personally manipulated the spread on individual minerals with less, though only briefly until someone with more money squeezed me out of my comfort zone.
Your proposal for 1-2 trillion sounds less than credible when you point-blank admit you have no idea how much money you need to run the venture you propose.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.08 18:27:00 -
[5]
What Shadarle describes is already being done in game, and already has other people doing their best to disturb the market manipulators.
It's a shame it's not the kind of thing that gets more publicity. Maybe if we got prettier charts and graphs...
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 02:44:00 -
[6]
So you really have no clue how much isk you'll need? Christ, man, do a dry run with a couple billion and extrapolate.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 04:12:00 -
[7]
Obviously you pick an item with less volume. Do I have to do all the work for this for you and your alt?
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 04:34:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: tornpain
Obviously you pick an item with less volume. Do I have to do all the work for this for you and your alt?
WTS: clues, by the cartload. Complementary cluebats and cluehammers included.
The mineral market is NOT like "any other market".
"Insights" you gather over price manipulation in any other markets DO NOT apply verbatim to the mineral market.
Here's a clue for you: focusing on a pair of minerals might indeed involve less than 300 billion in volume. Or even a different hub, zomgs~!
In the future please feel free to convo me with similar brilliant additions to the discussion so that I may berate you more directly and appropriately -- I've added you to my address book so you may do so without CSPA charge.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 05:05:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Shadarle
I'm curious, have you had problems with dancing staplers?
What sort of epicurean delight lies buried in this subject? I might have to charge you isk for continuing this line of discussion.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 13:41:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: tornpain
Here's a clue for you: focusing on a pair of minerals might indeed involve less than 300 billion in volume. Or even a different hub, zomgs~!
Since we're trading clues here, how's about the value of a SINGLE mineral in a SINGLE day in a SINGLE hub ?
Would it surprise you at all to find out that, oh, we're talking anywhere from 5 to 40 BILLION ISK per day per mineral per ANY major hub ?
Oh, I'm sorry, did that somehow screw up your math ? "oops..."
You're wrong. You pulled that 5-40 billion number out of thin air.
I've personally pushed the bid/ask spread on pyerite to 37% in Rens with less than 5 billion, and done about 30million units of volume before the bid crept back up.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 16:01:00 -
[11]
Lonetrek only did 3.5B, 5.3B, and 2.8B in tritanium the previous three days. Region-wide. How's that translate to 5-40 billion in a single system?
Your numbers are completely fictitious.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 16:48:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Shadarle
buying out all orders below a certain point
This is pretty much the dumbest way to get your start in market manipulation.
I flooded enough pyerite to clear the buy orders down to my target level, put up my own buy order, and undercut the lowest sells for a 37% spread. I get my minerals somewhere between the highest buy order and my target level. It really works best when there's a thin level of demand, as I noticed has been the case during the week in Rens lately. I could have kept going but I ran out of cheap pyerite to dump into the buy orders and I spent my freighter money on poker. 
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.09 20:54:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Kilda Shepp
You need to come back when you've spent more then 5 minutes looking at the Market screen. Filling buy orders doesn't lower the sell orders price, all it does is give a larger spread. A spread in which will be filled by sell orders. You're manipulating the wrong side.
If you place a cheap sell order others will most likely undercut you by 0.01 isk. You can't manipulate people who HAVE the product already. It's much easier to manipulate the people who have the ISK but not the product.
You need to come back when you understand what I did. I don't care what the sell orders are, I'm taking pyerite bought at 37% below the lowest sell order and reselling it.
Originally by: Pang Grohl
Hmmm... so you lowered the bid price and the ask price by supplementing existing supply and replacing existing demand in an already oversupplied market. Good on you for making money at it, but that's not a trend you want to sustain for long term growth. If you paid attention to the OP you'd see that the goal is not just short term gains, but long term equity growth as well.
In your scenario you're decreasing the value of the market which will disinterest suppliers and speculators. If you're a supplier making this manipulation, this is a good thing in the long run. If you're a speculator making this manipulation, it's a bad thing in the long run. You need other speculators and a steady supply to drive market prices up in an efficient and cost effective manner. Otherwise your stuck investing a lot of effort and cash in pushing and pulling the market.
I like having markets to myself  What makes a supplier in your opinion though? Anyone who can get the product in question outside of a buy order? That's pretty trivial for minerals as one might imagine...
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.14 16:06:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Hanoi Hana
Maybe I've been looking at this thread through the wrong sunglasses, but I'm not fully confident that this business venture is more worthwhile than many others.
I say this about every public EVE IPO I've ever read. I'm not sure this argument holds much water; obviously many people are interested in any sort of return involving none of their own time and effort.
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tornpain
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Posted - 2007.11.15 00:50:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Shadarle
I would have been far more interested if it was done by allowing large investors to buy their own minerals based on directions from Block. But that is not how it is going to be done.
What price would you be willing to pay Block for this service?
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