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minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.03 12:33:00 -
[1]
I was thinking about buying the decryptors "assemble instruction", the best decryptors for minmatar inventions a week ago. The price was 50 mil. and I thought it would be too high. Over night someone bought all decryptors and all of a sudden the new price was 94 mil. Now a few more days later the price is 112 and still increasing.
At these prices I would think twice about buying some. Some ppl bought some of them for 41-45 mil and less like me (I jsut did not buy enough of them) before this forcing up of prices begun. I am not sure, whether the best run decryptors are worth these prices. I do not think so. I did not compare other racial decryptors, but I would not be surprised, if the same happened with other decryptors.
It would be funny, if CCP seeded more of these decryptors. The market manipulators might have a problem then with their overpriced decryptors.
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Jar'cana Brig
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Posted - 2007.12.03 12:40:00 -
[2]
This isn't market "manipulation" this is normal market forces.
There are _alot_ of people getting ready for invention of the new T2 ships. These market forces can be seen in POS materials as well.
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Ahkii
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Posted - 2007.12.03 12:41:00 -
[3]
What i find most amusing, is that people wait until two days before a patch before buying all the "cool gadgets" to use in patch.
Whats that old saying? "Lack of planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on my part"
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minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.03 12:48:00 -
[4]
Edited by: minmatar citizen6020 on 03/12/2007 12:50:49
These ppl, who want to buy now, I am talking to. If one of them does not step in the trap, I am already satisfied and the mainpulators get less profit. 
I do not see the same market manipulation happening in t2 components for minmatar. There are a lot more suppliers for this. With plasma thrusters somebody tried it, but he failed.
Which pos materials you mean?
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Iris Lyania
Caldari
Research Excess
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Posted - 2007.12.03 13:50:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Iris Lyania on 03/12/2007 13:51:09
I dont see any market-manipulation in buying alot of decryptors. I stockpiled all my decryptors i found when i heard that they will get a push towards the chance multiplier and ME in Trinity. Ppl which buy decryptors now want to do the same thing, they want to maximize their profit. I'm quite sure a week after the patch alot of them will be resold for higher prices :) Hmmm maybe i'll do the same, or maybe i'll wait till they are not available in COSMOS plexes anymore, that should give out more profit :))) Is that mean . . .noooo it's marketing.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.03 14:58:00 -
[6]
Why do they need to be manipulators? eh?
You can NOW go on Sisi and test-invent some BS..
With this data at hand, you can very accurately calculate what it costs you to build such a T2 BS. Then you calculate a nice markup and voila you can see what components for the whole process can cost how much..
And if anything is cheaper than this value NOW ON TQ, then you would be an idiot not to buy it NOW..
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Ceridan02
Caldari
Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2007.12.03 15:07:00 -
[7]
Just wait.
The market will stabilize itself. Just dont buy decryptors for such prices and you will give the resellers some headaches.
The prices will get on a normal niveau sooner or later.
Your signature exceeds the maximum allowed dimensions of 400x120 pixels -Valorem ([email protected]) |
El'essar Viocragh
Minmatar
FSK23
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Posted - 2007.12.03 15:16:00 -
[8]
The price of the best-chance decryptors always changed with the possible profit from the best invention they could be used for. That bar was simply raised with the jumpfreighters.
Unless the supply far outweights the need for tech 2 capital construction, I doubt we'll see the 40-50m days again for quite a while.
--
[17:47] <Mephysto> its dead, jim |
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.03 17:10:00 -
[9]
 Originally by: El'essar Viocragh
The price of the best-chance decryptors always changed with the possible profit from the best invention they could be used for. That bar was simply raised with the jumpfreighters.
Unless the supply far outweights the need for tech 2 capital construction, I doubt we'll see the 40-50m days again for quite a while.
I'd favour T2 battleships over jump freighters as determining the cost of the best chance decryptors, as the market for them is going to be far larger. To put it another way, people could buy all the ones they needed for JF invention and there'd still be lots left over.
My research services
Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Daerkannon Shimmerscale
Gallente
Paxton Industries
Paxton Federation
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Posted - 2007.12.03 17:32:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
I'd favour T2 battleships over jump freighters as determining the cost of the best chance decryptors, as the market for them is going to be far larger. To put it another way, people could buy all the ones they needed for JF invention and there'd still be lots left over.
JF invention will use the best ME decryptors instead of the best change decryptors unless decryptor prices jump severely.
For most invention the cost of invention outweighs the material costs of building the output by a good margin. In the case of jump freighters the build cost will outweigh the invention cost so it makes sense to use the best ME decryptor instead of the best chance.
---
Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here!
Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs! |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.03 17:35:00 -
[11]
It's funny how people try to warn others of "market manipulation", as if they would make a difference.
For starters, not a great deal of people read the forums carefully or throughly enough to matter for a "resale boycott".
Second, in this particular case, it's not even manipulation, as "manipulation" would imply no true value increase... the exact opposite is happening with decryptors, their true value (i.e. "ISK saved" in a certain type of invention job) will skyrocket.
To put it this way, you still stand to make a *profit* by choosing a 100-130 or even 150 mil "best chance" decryptor over a 15-20 mil "most bonus runs" decryptor in battleship invention.
So, it's not market manipulation, it's people realizing just how much better they will be after the patch compared to how good they are now, and price changing accordingly.
C|S|I|N|x. |
Dromololla
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Posted - 2007.12.03 17:37:00 -
[12]
caldari best decryptors are still cheap!!
*runs to the market*
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El'essar Viocragh
Minmatar
FSK23
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Posted - 2007.12.04 01:18:00 -
[13]
Edited by: El''essar Viocragh on 04/12/2007 01:25:46
Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale
JF invention will use the best ME decryptors instead of the best change decryptors unless decryptor prices jump severely.
For most invention the cost of invention outweighs the material costs of building the output by a good margin. In the case of jump freighters the build cost will outweigh the invention cost so it makes sense to use the best ME decryptor instead of the best chance.
Last time I calculated, one ME level on jumpfreighters was around 150m worth of stuff. So yes, it saves you around 600m to build it, but you only get a single run.
Best Chance:
- 2x Freighter BPC = 400m
- 2x 128 Datacores = 260m
- 5 output runs => 132m invention cost per run
(82.5m if you go with an average chance of 80% instead of 50%)
Best ME:
- 3x Freighter BPC = 600m
- 2x 128 Datacores = 390m
- 1 output run => 990m invention cost per run
(49% average chance in the scenario that results in 80% with the best chance decryptor: 675m)
So yeah, you save 600m to build it but pay 858m more to invent it.
Using the second set of numbers (44.4% chance after skills, resulting in 80% with best chance and 49% with best ME decryptor) a Jumpfreighter is in fact cheaper with the best ME ones - by 7.5m ISK.
But it is only one per Freighter BPC instead of 5.
Assuming 500m profit per jumpfreighter (lol) the best chance one could cost 1.5bn and the best ME one 1m, and the best-chance would still earn you more money per invention run. Factoring in lost profits from production slots used for four jumpfreighters instead of other stuff it does get a bit complicated but at least for the first couple of months my bet would still be on the best chance decryptor.
The old 0.8 chance ones might be the true contenders. 3 output runs and still 2 ME levels better as best chance. Anyone some math on these? But copy times alone will drive a lot of people into best chance ones anyway.
Oh, and if we see jumpfreighter or t2 battleships as the price bar for decryptors doesn't matter. In both cases possible margins are way ahead of current HAC profits and it adjusted accordingly. So no manipulation. Just some educated speculation on initial sales prices and demand.
--
[17:47] <Mephysto> its dead, jim |
Vyktor Abyss
The Abyss Corporation
Abyss Alliance
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Posted - 2007.12.04 05:58:00 -
[14]
I agree with the OP in that yes it probably is market manipulation. There's increased demand sure, but some of the price-hike is probably due to resellers too.
However, this is a very normal and expected move in the market that happens every time a new patch comes out. People cashing in on other people's lack of planning and the increased demand is hardly anything new.
The market speculators take a risk as you've pointed out, and only those stupid souls who don't know the historical value and potential value of those decryptors will actually lose money.
- Ideas are my business...maybe thats why I'm always skint!
Please read my ideas |
minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.04 10:23:00 -
[15]
Edited by: minmatar citizen6020 on 04/12/2007 10:25:26
exactely. I can not prove properly, it is manipulationed. I wrote this to bait some people here. But it is a fact, the market was not moving a long time (months) and all of a sudden in 1 night almost 100 % and later more. This is not normal. Think, it would happen to a stock, you bought. Most likely a reseller did it. Also it was a good move to ged rid of some inventers, who do not have billions of isk to buy the decryptors at the current prices.
So other question: you think the decryptors at the new prices are profitable for BS invention? numbers? (for everything else they are not)
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.04 12:56:00 -
[16]
Profitable ?
Linkage
Take a look for yourself.
C|S|I|N|x. |
minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.04 13:28:00 -
[17]
Edited by: minmatar citizen6020 on 04/12/2007 13:30:00
whatever you pretend, rising prices for more than 100 % in such a short time is not normal. Someone stated, this did not happen with caldari decryptors. I will wait, how my first invention jobs with the assembly instructions, I bought, turn out. If I have a good success rate, I might buy more, if not, I let it be.
Anyway CCP should seed more of these best decryptors to make those snags, who sell these decryptors now, uncomfortable.
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Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.12.04 13:54:00 -
[18]
Originally by: minmatar citizen6020
whatever you pretend, rising prices for more than 100 % in such a short time is not normal.
Sylramic Fibres jumped from 120 to 250 in one night.
Fernite carbide jumped from 70 to 200 in one night.
Ferrogel jumped from 6000 to 12000 in one night.
Plasma Thrusters jumped from 12000 to 42000 in one night.
These are just *some* of the *common* occurances I see on the market. It's not unusual
Quote:
Someone stated, this did not happen with caldari decryptors.
Caldari Decryptors dont invent the same things as Minmatar decryptors.
Quote:
Anyway CCP should seed more of these best decryptors to make those snags, who sell these decryptors now, uncomfortable.
Y'know, I'd love it if in the middle of a fleet battle in 0.0, if CCP just suddenly seeded a horde of Dire Guristas ships of all classes, or better yet, CONCORD vessels, hostile to the winning side.
Or better yet, for those who've gone to a helluva lot of effort to secure, say, Dysprosium moons, that CCP suddenly decides to seed more.
Just because someone's plans are working doesn't mean the game is broken. It just means you're doing it wrong.
Improve Market Competition! |
Jurgen Cartis
Caldari
Interstellar Corporation of Exploration
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Posted - 2007.12.04 14:11:00 -
[19]
Nice. You conveniently ignore the fact that 20 new T2 types are coming out tomorrow, and every inventor and his mother are gathering supplies to cash in on them. You don't think that just maybe, some of these guys waited until the last minute?
This is not manipulation. This is supply and demand with expectations of uncertain supply, and some manipulation on the side.
Oh, and you do know they're rebalancing all decryptors for Trinity, right?
--------------------
ICE Blueprint Sales
FIRST!! -Yipsilanti
Pfft. Never such a thing as a "last chance". ;) -Rauth |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.04 14:52:00 -
[20]
The link I included above (the zip-ed XLS spreadsheet) contains the "Trinity" decryptor figures.
Yes, it's confirmed, those there are the announced ones, and they do check out on SiSi right now, and have done so repeatedly for the past week.
C|S|I|N|x. |
Bambi
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Posted - 2007.12.04 14:54:00 -
[21]
They are changing the way these decrypters spawn too, I think we will find there are a LOT more of them about and some people are going to find themselves out of pocket.
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Iris Lyania
Caldari
Research Excess
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Posted - 2007.12.04 16:10:00 -
[22]
Well, I'm not sure if the COSMOS changes will already happen with the deployment of Trinity. Up to now the changes are only mentioned in the post of chronotis (Linkage), but not in the patch notes. All whats written there is : Various dungeons have been adjusted and optimized as part of the Need for Speed initiative. I personally think and hope the increase of the radar sites spawn is just the first step of the aforementioned COSMOS change and decryptors will be removed from COSMOS at a later time. We will see what happens, it's senseless to spread around rumors.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.04 17:36:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Iris Lyania
but not in the patch notes
"The bonuses provided by decryptors in invention have been increased by varying amounts to be more effective in invention jobs."
I guess you missed that line in the patchnotes.
And it's not even green 
C|S|I|N|x. |
minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.04 18:12:00 -
[24]
Edited by: minmatar citizen6020 on 04/12/2007 18:14:26
Originally by: Kylar Renpurs
Sylramic Fibres jumped from 120 to 250 in one night.
Fernite carbide jumped from 70 to 200 in one night.
Ferrogel jumped from 6000 to 12000 in one night.
Plasma Thrusters jumped from 12000 to 42000 in one night.
It is still not normal. Otherwise you could predict this. Could you tell me, which items will be the next with + 100 % ? I mean, you say it is normal, then it is no secret and you can tell everybody. 
It is amusing, how you guys try to deny the existance of resellers and call all these surprising changes normal supply and demand and hope ppl stay quiet. Some sudden price changes maybe happen, because a powerful producer needs all, but certainly not all. Btw. you still did not say, when the price for the assembly instructions decryptor would be too high, if it is not already. 
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.04 19:27:00 -
[25]
Originally by: minmatar citizen6020
It is still not normal. Otherwise you could predict this.
what has predictivity with normal market behaivior in common?!
Originally by: minmatar citizen6020
Could you tell me, which items will be the next with + 100 % ? I mean, you say it is normal, then it is no secret and you can tell everybody.
Hm, let me think.. what do I have lots of stock from?...
Originally by: minmatar citizen6020
It is amusing, how you guys try to deny the existance of resellers and call all these surprising changes normal supply and demand and hope ppl stay quiet. Some sudden price changes maybe happen, because a powerful producer needs all, but certainly not all.
Who does deny their existance?
Yes, they try to monopolize a market for a certain time for maximising their profits.. what is your problem with that? do they use an exploit? Do they use anything else than the game mechanics for this and some thought?
See..
Originally by: minmatar citizen6020
Btw. you still did not say, when the price for the assembly instructions decryptor would be too high, if it is not already.
If it's "too" high it just wouldn't be bought.. finito.. then demand falls and prices have to follow somewhen later, as even the hard-rock-reseller needs VOLUME besides the profit to make some decend iskies..
Profit without Volume is useless.
Example: I could charge more then a 40% markup for some of my stuff, as the others try here at my local hub (100% and more  ).. but bet who makes the volume and the iskies, where they sell way less than me 
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Iris Lyania
Caldari
Research Excess
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Posted - 2007.12.04 21:32:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Akita T
"The bonuses provided by decryptors in invention have been increased by varying amounts to be more effective in invention jobs."
I guess you missed that line in the patchnotes.
And it's not even green
??? can you read ? i'm not talking about the changes of ME and chance modifier . . . .
I'm just talking about the disappearance of decryptors from COSMOS . . . . 
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Jurgen Cartis
Caldari
Interstellar Corporation of Exploration
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Posted - 2007.12.04 22:15:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Akita T
The link I included above (the zip-ed XLS spreadsheet) contains the "Trinity" decryptor figures.
Yes, it's confirmed, those there are the announced ones, and they do check out on SiSi right now, and have done so repeatedly for the past week.
Excellent, I'll check out your version 1.4 spreadsheet. Was referring to our generically named friend about the rebalancing, you were the one who cued me in on it in the first place.
--------------------
ICE Blueprint Sales
FIRST!! -Yipsilanti
Pfft. Never such a thing as a "last chance". ;) -Rauth |
Shadowsword
COLSUP
Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2007.12.04 23:24:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Akita T
The link I included above (the zip-ed XLS spreadsheet) contains the "Trinity" decryptor figures.
Yes, it's confirmed, those there are the announced ones, and they do check out on SiSi right now, and have done so repeatedly for the past week.
Thanks for your xls, by the way.
Imho, we can't really way which decryptor is best at freighter invention for the moment, because:
- We don't know what the base chance for freighters is.
- We don't know what the material costs in isks of invention and production, since the components prices will move a lot in the next few weeks/months.
------------------------------------------
What is Oomph? It the sound Amarr players makes when they get kicked in the ribs. |
Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.12.06 00:26:00 -
[29]
Edited by: Kylar Renpurs on 06/12/2007 00:27:59
Quote:
It is still not normal. Otherwise you could predict this. Could you tell me, which items will be the next with + 100 % ? I mean, you say it is normal, then it is no secret and you can tell everybody.
Sure, I'll do that if you *really* want. Because I've scored well in the past off materials such as Crystalline Carbide, Titanium Carbide, Hypersynaptic Fibres etc.. Sure market flows are no secret, but it only disadvantages myself to reveal when these *might* happen. It's a skill to identify them, and I'm pretty amateur at it tbh, but i can do it well enough for my market.
Of course I can't accurately predict anything besides Advanced Materials, however careful observation of *any* of EVE's markets, particularly the manufacturing ones, will quickly reveal their ebbs and flows.
Will I actually tell you how? No, because that'd be the PvP equivalent of me saying "Hey, my Badger will be jumping through Low Sec space carrying a full load of zydrine at this location and time. I move at these times because it's safe",, shortly before every pirate comes and shoots me up.
Needless to say I make a point of those ones because, as an industrialist, I capitalised massively. Most recent score was nabbing a months worth of Crystalline carbide at 70ish before the price spiked the next day to 120. I've been living quite happily off my Sylramic Fibres which I picked up at 98 before the price spiked to 180, back down to 130ish, and now the most recent spike to 250. These are advantages I won't reveal the key to identifying.
Oh, and for the record, I'm not in collaboration with any market fixers. This is purely my own speculation on markets to achieve those prices.
Improve Market Competition! |
pershphanie
Deadly Addiction
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Posted - 2007.12.06 03:30:00 -
[30]
all lies.
wts - assembly instructions, stolen formulas, and test reports
Your signature exceeds the maximum allowed dimensions of 400x120 pixels and filesize of 24000 bytes -Valorem ([email protected]) |
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