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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.06 03:53:00 -
[31]
Lets put it bluntly. If i could be sure that
"we are moving decryptors from COSMOS to Exploration" doesnt mean "they will drop in batches of 100 all over highsec", you wouldnt see a single (useful) decryptor below 300 m on market...
i wouldnt even resell them, i would use them, then gouge on the ships.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.06 04:10:00 -
[32]
Funny thing is, with the "improved" decryptor values, using any decryptor is better as using no decryptor at all in ship invention (prior to Trinity buffs, you could actually be at a loss with two, even three of them, compared to no decryptor).
Right now, the only deterimining factor on which decryptor to use is decryptor price, since all save you some money if they're cheap enough (depends a lot on what ships you invent too).
As for the amounts... the official word was they will be MOVED.
It was explained it literally means same amount will drop overall in exploration as it used to drop from COSMOS canisters.
So, unless the dev lied (which I doubt) or was misinformed (which I doubt more since he was the supposed responsable)... you get the idea.
The only "thing" might be that they could have changed their mind since then, which I also doubt because of the "decryptors are a luxury" comments made recently.
So, the only way to price-gouge massively is if you manage to price-gouge *ALL* decryptors of a certain race, and you can only do that gouging to the level where inventing without a decryptor begins to be almost as profitable (so they shouldn't even bother buying from you).
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.06 16:11:00 -
[33]
Anyway, most decryptor prices should be exploding upwards by now... since, as usual, only a small fraction of the userbase has the decency to PLAN things ahead properly, read the forums, watch the news, etc.
All the rest should be now frantically buying decryptors even higher than "respectable" priced ones, so they can be "the first on the market".
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Iris Lyania
Caldari
Research Excess
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Posted - 2007.12.06 16:19:00 -
[34]
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minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.06 17:09:00 -
[35]
currently the new price for assembly instructions decryptors is 144 mil. I still see nothing unusual, no resellers or hype spotted so far. Go on nothing to see here. 
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minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.11 15:05:00 -
[36]
There was interesting price development in the last days! We are down on 54 mil again for assembly instructions decryptors. Now, how do our allknowing market analysts explain this? Be honest - who did buy, though I warned you?  But hey it is all driven by human market forces ... somehow ... 
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Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.12.11 17:50:00 -
[37]
I'm going to guess that people underestimated how many decryptors would be found in exploration. Either that or the demand prior to the patch was HEAVILY HEAVILY HEAVILY influenced by speculation rather than actual consumption. Speculation is all fine and dandy when there is going to be an actual price increase, but you've all heard of pump and dump before? That's when ALL of the demand IS speculation. I know many of the COSMOS farmers weren't actually selling any of the decryptors they farmed at all. They were convinced the prices would go sky high, so they farmed and farmed and hoarded. Now they're selling off.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.11 22:11:00 -
[38]
Demand spike, stocks previously in hands of market players or COSMOS farmers, price soaring "above respectable price" as I was saying.
Right now pretty much all "heavy users" of decryptors have what they needed stockpiled, so now it's a heavy demand drop.
At the same time, since decryptors are dropped from exploration instead of COSMOS, people who do exploration shocked by the "unexpected treasure" start to sell them fast for a quick buck, below true worth, at whatever level buy orders are.
They'll slowly go back up again, once explorers start to realise what they have on their hand, and as heavy-duty inventors start wearing out their stockpiled decryptors.
I fully expect a "stabilistation price" somewhere in the 70-mil range.
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minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.11 22:45:00 -
[39]
do you ever read, what you have written before, Akita T?
I help you to remember:
 Quote:
their true value (i.e. "ISK saved" in a certain type of invention job) will skyrocket.
To put it this way, you still stand to make a *profit* by choosing a 100-130 or even 150 mil "best chance" decryptor over a 15-20 mil "most bonus runs" decryptor in battleship invention.
uhoh ...
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.11 23:00:00 -
[40]
Edited by: Akita T on 11/12/2007 23:05:47
Yes, but I've also said "right now, the only deterimining factor on which decryptor to use is decryptor price, since all save you some money if they're cheap enough (depends a lot on what ships you invent too)."
You won't be using "best chance" decryptors *only* in battleship invention (although, their usage there will be the most common, I really doubt more than a handfull of BS invention jobs will use any other decryptors), this means it's a matter of "number of BS invention jobs vs number of best chance decryptors available".
Since I really doubt there's more BS invention jobs per day on average for a certain empire compared to how many best chance decryptors are getting traded daily for that "race", this means some of them get used in "less savings" jobs too.
Overall, this means the price equilibrium is somewhere between "best relative savings" and the "second best" alternative.
Also, "true value" is not an absolute term, note how I was specifically saying "in a certain type of job".
The "true value" of a best chance decryptor is not the same for a BS job (highest value), a CS job (moderate value), a frigate job (small value) or even a module job (minimal value).
So... there's no contradiction in my previous statements
I was simply speaking of "long-term trends" mostly, mentioning current price/savings levels... you seem to focus on current price levels exclusively.
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minmatar citizen6020
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Posted - 2007.12.12 09:35:00 -
[41]
Other question: what happened to your forecast prices for datacores - mechanical engineering would increase? Look at hte market, they decrease, too. Anyway, I am sure, you will have for this also an explanation, whcih fits allegedly to what you were saying before.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.12 11:33:00 -
[42]
Actually, Shadarle has a much better explanation, over in the market forum.
Bottom line, I heavily underestimated supply based on volumes traded, seems like a huge amount of people held of selling until after the patch in hopes of a quick buck.
It's the reverse of a self-fulfilling prophecy 
One that, if enough people hear about it, and act upon it with intention on catching a profet, is bound to end up false.
Short version : I was wrong
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Iris Lyania
Caldari
Research Excess
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Posted - 2007.12.12 16:42:00 -
[43]
I dont think you were wrong Akita. The prices will increase but it will take some time. Alot of decryptors were moved from other trade hubs to Jita during the last days because prices there incresed more than somewhere else. So now they are decreasing due to the big supply and less demand. Lets wait, i'm very sure sooner or later the prices for decryptors will raise.
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2007.12.12 16:50:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Iris Lyania
Alot of decryptors were moved from other trade hubs to Jita during the last days because prices there incresed more than somewhere else.
Decryptors may increase (supply is variable), datacores have nowhere to go but down. (Supply is infinite until they drop low enough)
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Jann DeVIlle
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Posted - 2007.12.12 17:58:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Admiral Nova
Originally by: Iris Lyania
Alot of decryptors were moved from other trade hubs to Jita during the last days because prices there incresed more than somewhere else.
Decryptors may increase (supply is variable), datacores have nowhere to go but down. (Supply is infinite until they drop low enough)
Halfway correct:
Supply is limited by the number of people who actually bother to get science skills and research agents, and there is the same drain as for decryptors (being used up in Invention).
This said, collecting datacores is easy money and
I expect the supply to increase. Some missionrunners in my corp have acquired science skills only for this purpose.
But at some point, prices will drop so low that people rather put their skills in other areas. Except for the producers of course who need science skills anyway. So I think we will end up with stable prices below the current ones.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2007.12.12 18:01:00 -
[46]
Originally by: minmatar citizen6020
Other question: what happened to your forecast prices for datacores - mechanical engineering would increase? Look at hte market, they decrease, too. Anyway, I am sure, you will have for this also an explanation, whcih fits allegedly to what you were saying before.
Sorry to disappoint you, but that too is an utterly routine activity. People getting burned because the market failed to meet lofty expectations? Happens all the time. All these price fluctuations both up and down are normal for upgrades where you have both a huge group of people who don't really know the details and hidden surprises for even the knowledgeable (like the exploration loot changes). And you can see them in normal trade too. For small or isolated markets even the entry of a single corporation or player can skew the pricse greatly.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.13 04:23:00 -
[47]
And as long as people pay the same price for a ME-6 marauder run as they pay for a ME-1 marauder run (i.e. stupid consumers at the moment), you'd have to build your own ships, not just invent them.
Besides, the bottleneck is in building, not invention
The market is flooded with bloueprints almost nobody can build yet (a few started building one/two days ago, more to come soon).
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