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Lone Gunman
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Posted - 2007.12.11 20:29:00 -
[31]
Edited by: Lone Gunman on 11/12/2007 20:30:55
 Originally by: SPIONKOP
However the build costs on these BPC's are now insane if buying components of the market so keeping them to one side until the storm carms down or ship prices go up.
I have plenty of components in stock, going to sell them I think with these silly prices.
Same here and with "0" success so far with invention i am considering the same thing.
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Lone Gunman
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Posted - 2007.12.12 16:51:00 -
[32]
UPDATE
Originally by: Lone Gunman
Edited by: Lone Gunman on 10/12/2007 14:22:45
3 Scorpion-Widow
3 Raven-Golem
All One Run BPC's
Skills all at 4
Using +4 Decryptor
No Base
Public Invention
0 for 6
Second Run -
3 Scorpion-Widow
3 Raven-Golem
All One Run BPC's
Skills all at 4
Using +4 Decryptor
No Base
Public Invention
4 out of 6
3 widows
1 Golem
I'm not complaining but does this seem off? Anyone else having a marked increase in Invention Success?
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Jann DeVIlle
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Posted - 2007.12.12 18:26:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Lone Gunman
Pre Trinity using a one run BPC had the same chance as a Max run BPC. We are assuming this is still the case. But using a max run BPC does give you an extra run on a successful T2 BPC copy.
I've recently tried this (max run Merlin BPCs without a decryptor) and got a 1 run Harpy BPC. So the extra run seems to be a myth 
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Burchov
Lyrus Associates
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Posted - 2007.12.12 19:15:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Jann DeVIlle
I've recently tried this (max run Merlin BPCs without a decryptor) and got a 1 run Harpy BPC. So the extra run seems to be a myth
It is not a myth, because you only get that extra run if use use a decryptor, and then it doesn't matter which decryptor. See this thread, particularly this reply:
Originally by: MicanG
If it's a 1run bpc with a +4 decryptor you get 4 runs
if it's max run bpc with a +4 decryptor you get 5 runs
if it's a 1run bpc with a +9 decryptor yhou get 9 runs
if it's max run bpc with a +9 decryptor you get 10 runs
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J3ST3R
Gallente
Dark Light Inc
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Posted - 2007.12.12 22:38:00 -
[35]
So might have to modify title now but here is an update.
Total Ship Jobs 25
Successes 8
10 straight failures then I reset my POS forcefield password
8/15 successes since.
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Etho Demerzel
Gallente
Holy Clan of the Cone
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Posted - 2007.12.13 01:30:00 -
[36]
CCP random chance implementation is very poor and leads to a lot of streaks. That is extremelly bad (or sometimes extremelly good for some people), much more than it would be likely to be in a true (or even reasoably approximate) random distribution.
There are many ways in which they may have mismodeled the random chances, but I am pretty sure the model is awful.
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"If a member of the EVE community finds he or she cannot accept our current level of transparency, we bid you good luck in finding a company that meets your needs." - CCP kieron... |
Roland San
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Posted - 2007.12.13 03:01:00 -
[37]
9 Golem jobs so far.
Skills all at 4, 1-run Raven BPC, 1.8x Installation Guide.
Resultant T2 BPCs were 4-4un, ME -5 and PE -2.
1st batch of 3:
2/3 success.
2nd batch of 3:
2/3 success.
And just when I was happily thinking I was on a roll,
3rd batch of 3:
0/3 success :(
Looking at this thread, I guess I really cannot complain about 4/9. I do hope that maybe some firm figures will come out for invention soon; as it is, the numbers are everywhere.
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Lone Gunman
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Posted - 2007.12.17 04:40:00 -
[38]
UPDATE
Originally by: Lone Gunman
3 Scorpion-Widow
3 Raven-Golem
All One Run BPC's
Skills all at 4
Using +4 Decryptor
No Base
Public Invention
0 for 6
Second Run -
3 Scorpion-Widow
3 Raven-Golem
All One Run BPC's
Skills all at 4
Using +4 Decryptor
No Base
Public Invention
4 out of 6
3 widows
1 Golem
Third Run
Skills 4/4/4
+4 Decryptor 1.8 Chance
Public Invention
1 Scorpion 1 Run BPC No Base (Success! 4 Run ME -5 PE -2 Widow BPC)
1 Scorpion 200 Run BPC With Base (Success! 10 Run ME -5 PE -2 Widow BPC)
3 Raven Max Run BPC No Base (Success! 3x 5 Run ME -5 PE -2 Golem BPC)
1 Raven Max Run BPC No Base (Failure)
All in all not to Shabby.
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Bambi
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Posted - 2007.12.17 12:10:00 -
[39]
11 attempts with single run Raven BPC using 0.4x decryptors.
1 success, 9 runs ME -6
10 failures.
5/5/5 skills.
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Stefan F
Enrave
Knights Of the Southerncross
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Posted - 2007.12.17 14:13:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Etho Demerzel
CCP random chance implementation is very poor and leads to a lot of streaks. That is extremelly bad (or sometimes extremelly good for some people), much more than it would be likely to be in a true (or even reasoably approximate) random distribution.
There are many ways in which they may have mismodeled the random chances, but I am pretty sure the model is awful.
Probably based on each invention attempt. So yes you could potentially get 20 misses in a row. Live with it or quit the business... more profit for the rest 
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Jeremiaz
Gallente
Nautilus Industries
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Posted - 2007.12.17 17:51:00 -
[41]
Been searching around and this is the only thread I can find that sort of mentions the problem I'm having. I'm new to invention, but have all the necessary skills. I'm trying to invent a T2 Gallente Battleship BPC i.e. Kronos. I have all necessary items in My Hangar at an NPC station. I'm trying to install the job in our POS mobile lab which is in the same system. But I can't select the Base Item or Decrypter. Someone earlier said that they all need to be in corp Hangar 1, so I tried this as well, but still no luck.
Any ideas anyone? |
Etho Demerzel
Gallente
Holy Clan of the Cone
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Posted - 2007.12.17 18:31:00 -
[42]
Edited by: Etho Demerzel on 17/12/2007 18:33:32
Edited by: Etho Demerzel on 17/12/2007 18:32:21
Originally by: Stefan F
Originally by: Etho Demerzel
CCP random chance implementation is very poor and leads to a lot of streaks. That is extremelly bad (or sometimes extremelly good for some people), much more than it would be likely to be in a true (or even reasoably approximate) random distribution.
There are many ways in which they may have mismodeled the random chances, but I am pretty sure the model is awful.
Probably based on each invention attempt. So yes you could potentially get 20 misses in a row. Live with it or quit the business... more profit for the rest
Hey if the rest CAN have a profit comparable to the work involved and the money that needs to be appied to tank for these oddities good for them. I sincerely doubt it. I am capable of betting that the people that are investing time and effort in T2 Battleship production for example would be earning alot more doing other things.
My point is, overall it is a bad system. It is better to have a system that gives you a guaranteed quickly converging average than one that is based on a poor implementation of a random sequence which can produce streaks of 20-30 failures frequently even for an attempt chances of around 40-45% (1.8 * base chance modified by skills). These streaks are too frequent to be anything but a bug.
And before some idiot comes here saying that anything is possible in a random sequence. Possible is different from likely. And when too many things unlikely happen it is much more probable an error is generating them than they being oddities in a correctly implemented random sequence.
=====
"If a member of the EVE community finds he or she cannot accept our current level of transparency, we bid you good luck in finding a company that meets your needs." - CCP kieron... |
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