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Trevedian
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Posted - 2004.04.23 06:18:00 -
[1]
There is a great deal more transparency concerning how Tech 2 BPO's are distributed now. I really appreciate the Research Summaries tab that appears under "show info" on R&D agents. It lists the total number of RP's in that field, number of researchers, growth rate and enumerates the BPO's that were distributed.
Now when can I get that Tach Beam II BPO?
Sex0r > you're bounty turns me on.. you seem like the kind of amarrian to dominate me
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voogru
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Posted - 2004.04.23 06:59:00 -
[2]
Edited by: voogru on 23/04/2004 06:59:54
 Quote:
Now when can I get that Tach Beam II BPO?
When its done 
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Your 425mm Prototype I Gauss Gun perfectly strikes Guardian Enforcer, wrecking for 827.3 damage. |
Dr Liebknecht
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Posted - 2004.04.23 07:59:00 -
[3]
Agreed.
But, the "predictable patents" might suggest it's how many blueprints still to be handed out?
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Mimo
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Posted - 2004.04.23 08:52:00 -
[4]
Very nice.
I though agree with the Dr., that the number is more likely indicating the remaining patents of a prints. Since i doubt it will be weekly dished out numbers, it can be only the overall patents left.
Of course, only Papa can confirm this. But it's not that important. More important is that peeps see what's going on, what prints there are and even can calulate their chance to get a specific print.
Very good to end speculations about the lotterie 
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Sushanta Mog
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Posted - 2004.04.23 14:08:00 -
[5]
Brillian, given that each RP is a "ticket" in the "lottery" one can calculate the chances of getting a desired BP by calculating the odds on getting a BP on a single "ticket" and multiplying it with the number of your own "tickets" i.e. (our own RPs in the field) * (patents left)/(total RPs in game).
Unless all research fields hava a chance at getting BP from other fields and/or there is more to winning a BP than just owning a "ticket".
Anyway, the new data is brilliant to have, now we only need to know it works :)
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When you have exhausted all possibilities,
remember this - you haven't.
------------------ (Thomas Edison) |
Xachariah
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Posted - 2004.04.23 14:28:00 -
[6]
But there has to be something wrong with the numbers.
In my field (Elektromagnetic Physics), there are roughly 1 million rps. I got 8000 rp. There are 12 blueprints "missing". Which would give me a chance of roughly 10%. This seems pretty high for me.
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Asharee Intrefer
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Posted - 2004.04.24 01:47:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Xachariah
But there has to be something wrong with the numbers.
In my field (Elektromagnetic Physics), there are roughly 1 million rps. I got 8000 rp. There are 12 blueprints "missing". Which would give me a chance of roughly 10%. This seems pretty high for me.
I'm no expert in statistics and probability calculations or whaterver, but I'm not sure if your thinking is right. Having less than 1% chance in 12 lottery drawings can't be as good as having a 10% chance overall.
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Swift
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Posted - 2004.04.24 03:50:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Swift on 24/04/2004 03:54:56
Yes - your chances don't stack in this way, so it isn't 10% overall I don't think...  0.8% chance in each draw currently for a print, but with say 10 prints remaining, its still 0.8% on each, with no association between each draw. Actually that stat is frighteningly low and with more players coming into the game, and more players generally coming into research, the competition for prints is definitely going to get much worse.
Talk about getting really 'lucky' if the system works as it should. Course that percentage will change for each player depending on the agent quality, skill levels and number of agents on that one field so may be able to push it up some ways with clever field choice too.
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'The truth about low sec space is that it reveals humanity - the 'essence' of all the races, in its purest form. A place where Concord no longer polices or protects, 'human nature' thrives in all its distilled destructive self-serving glory. Welcome to hell ladies and gentlemen, welcome to what it really is to be human.'
-Swiftare 'Swift' Sarum. |
dalman
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Posted - 2004.04.24 04:07:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Asharee Intrefer
Originally by: Xachariah
But there has to be something wrong with the numbers.
In my field (Elektromagnetic Physics), there are roughly 1 million rps. I got 8000 rp. There are 12 blueprints "missing". Which would give me a chance of roughly 10%. This seems pretty high for me.
I'm no expert in statistics and probability calculations or whaterver, but I'm not sure if your thinking is right. Having less than 1% chance in 12 lottery drawings can't be as good as having a 10% chance overall.
Calculation:
8k RP, 1M total rp. = 0.008 probability you get the first BP.
1-0.008 = 0.992 probability you won't get the first BP.
0.992^12 = 0.908 probability you won't get a BP any of the 12 times one is handed out.
1-0.908 = 0.092 probability you will get a BP (9.2%).
However, each time a BP is handed out, the winner loose all his RP. Which means the total RP decrease, which means your chance of getting next one gets bigger. And that brings your chance of getting a BP up a bit further.
However, new players will start to research too between each BP hand-out, and that will kinda even it out.
So, yea, you have about a 9% chance of getting one...
M.I.A. since 2004-07-30 |
Kalast Raven
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Posted - 2004.04.24 07:02:00 -
[10]
And a 91% chance you get nothing.
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K. Raven
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