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Tanya Powers
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
866
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Posted - 2012.03.14 00:09:00 -
[61] - Quote
Alara IonStorm wrote:Forgive my lack of knowledge about the Mineral Market and its effects on costs.
What do people speculate this means for the game? How will this effect the market?
Drone crap being the biggest minerals provider is bad, so CCP after many players rage finally will take those away, add some bots kicking. Now you have a clear lack of minerals for whatever, even a simple shuttle, and you don't have enough miners because: - they sold their mining char on toons bazaar - bot guy got it and just got kicked - new players do'nt have enough skills to efficiently mine in low/null - older players got tired of being ganked and are waiting for revenge (like me)
So those crawling on gazillions of isk have better time on buying all low ores/minerals they can right now even at 5 isk/unit before they hit prices you could never imagine it's even possible
This will have a major impact on each and every item in game, from shuttles to T1 ammo and let's not even talk about the uber Titan alt freshly acquired with incursion isk.
I told you guys this already about one month ago or +, we're getting closer and it's not ready to stop as long as bots get kicked and as long as players re start having fun mining, decent isk for this boring activity, and for some time now to prepare payback. I guess the impact of lack of minerals in game has a much bigger impact on big alliances than it has on miners AFK in high sec while doing other stuff with main char, right?
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Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
747
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Posted - 2012.03.14 04:24:00 -
[62] - Quote
Savage Creampuff wrote:before the drone regions, zyd was trading for around 3500 if i remember right. zyd was the bread n butter of 0.0 mining
I don't remember it that high. I know that 1700-1800 was the Dec 2009 price range.
Anyone have a market site with deeper history then EVEMarketeer?
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testobjekt
Goonswarm Federation Human Resources Goonswarm Federation
132
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Posted - 2012.03.14 08:03:00 -
[63] - Quote
with recent changes to titan mechanics the demand side will see a huge(!) nerf. People who compare the prices with the prices from wayback fail to take into account the new ships like the rorqual and orca, which make mining so much easier.
Furthermore the expenses for Ships are far more t2 oriented these days (which dont need so much minerals) or faction/officer (for highsec mission runners)
add to that the possibility of 0.0 mining crystalls with twice the yield and you see zydrine tanking to a new low. |

Mr Fondo
League of Gentlemen Controlled Chaos
7
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Posted - 2012.03.14 14:12:00 -
[64] - Quote
Hate to say i told you all so.. but
I TOLD YOU
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=462428#post462428 |

Eternal Corrosion
Sorry Guy Your Wife Forced Me
0
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Posted - 2012.03.14 14:22:00 -
[65] - Quote
The problem is that if CCP put bounties on Drones and doesnt change the mining volume of Hulks... we will see a skyrocket price inflation on almost everything cause the demand will be much bigger than the offer..., of course this will affect zydrine...
The good thing is if they raise the mining volume of ORE ships we will see a nice manipulation in Hulkaggeddons... |

Towaoc
Applied Technologies Inc Agents of Fortune
3
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Posted - 2012.03.14 23:12:00 -
[66] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote:Savage Creampuff wrote:before the drone regions, zyd was trading for around 3500 if i remember right. zyd was the bread n butter of 0.0 mining I don't remember it that high. I know that 1700-1800 was the Dec 2009 price range. Anyone have a market site with deeper history then EVEMarketeer? I dug into our internal records just for the fun of it. Zydrine traded in the 3,700 to 3,900 range throughout most of 2006, peaking around 4,200 in April of that year. A log entry in our archives dated April 16, 2006 shows two blocks of Zydrine being sold at a price of 4,249 per unit. This may approximate the time and price at which Zydrine peaked. Following the "Revelations" patch, Zyd tumbled to 3,050 per unit by December 31, 2006 and continued plunging to its all-time low of near 700 per unit last year. |

Lt Angus
Deep Core Mining Inc. Caldari State
60
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Posted - 2012.03.14 23:13:00 -
[67] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote:Savage Creampuff wrote:before the drone regions, zyd was trading for around 3500 if i remember right. zyd was the bread n butter of 0.0 mining I don't remember it that high. I know that 1700-1800 was the Dec 2009 price range. Anyone have a market site with deeper history then EVEMarketeer?
yea was that high but going back some years now, nocx was 800, isogen i think was 90-120
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Skydell
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
177
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Posted - 2012.03.14 23:19:00 -
[68] - Quote
I've been following Megacyte ever since this drone poo thing came about and it creeps 50 ISK or so a week. I don't think it ever fell below 2200 so it was much harder to contaminate the market unless you were prepared to inject alot of ISK. Assuming that factor doesn't change, I use that mineral as my thermostat for drone poo rumors. Anything happening to Zydrine is just market play. |

Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
752
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Posted - 2012.03.15 01:29:00 -
[69] - Quote
Towaoc wrote: I dug into our internal records just for the fun of it. Zydrine traded in the 3,700 to 3,900 range throughout most of 2006, peaking around 4,200 in April of that year. A log entry in our archives dated April 16, 2006 shows two blocks of Zydrine being sold at a price of 4,249 per unit. This may approximate the time and price at which Zydrine peaked. Following the "Revelations" patch, Zyd tumbled to 3,050 per unit by December 31, 2006 and continued plunging to its all-time low of near 700 per unit last year.
Thanks, I didn't start playing until Jan '07, and didn't really start tracking ore/mineral prices until '08 or so.
Feb 2010: (ISK/m3) - Veld 80 Scor 100 Pyro 68 Plag 99 Omb 57 Kern 85 Jasp 39 Herm 61 Hedb 78 (ISK/u) - Trit 2.65 Pye 6.75 Mex 26.50 Iso 50.25 Nocx 89 Zyd 1550 Mega 2600 Morph 7400
Jun 2011: Veld 98 Scor 91 Pyro 114 Omb 72 Kern 97 Jasp 139 Hemo 163 Hedb 162 Trit 3.25 Pye 4.40 Mex 26.10 Iso 65.00 Nocx 475 Zyd 875 Mega 2500 Morph 3600
Mar 2012: Veld 137 Scor 121 Pyro 170 Plag 154 Omb 82 Kern 151 Jasp 179 Hemo 198 Hedb 195 Trit 4.58 Pye 5.31 Mex 54.96 Iso 73.74 Nocx 567 Zyd 1173 Mega 2733 Morph 4989
(Hard to believe that Nocx used to be under 90 ISK/u. I had forgotten that.) |

Uppsy Daisy
24th Imperial Crusade Amarr Empire
82
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Posted - 2012.03.15 08:56:00 -
[70] - Quote
Surely if CCP's aim is to get people back mining in 0.0 again, the zydrine prices will have to rise relative to everything else in the game to make it worth it.
So whatever balancing that is necessary to make this occur will happen... |
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Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
57
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Posted - 2012.03.15 11:11:00 -
[71] - Quote
With the Rorqual, the low price of the Hulk compared to 2006, the minerals anomalies and the masses of miners in 0.0, I guess the zyrine price will rise over 1000, but not over 2000 in mid term. It's actually safer to mine in 0.0 than in high sec now. I predict a huge press on the mineral market in the future too. |

testobjekt
Goonswarm Federation Human Resources Goonswarm Federation
136
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Posted - 2012.03.15 11:29:00 -
[72] - Quote
There is no way predict the price in a reliable fashion, outside of "it will skyrocket" because thats the designe goal. They remove dronepoo to make mining more profitable.
BTW: Crucible 1.6 in the week after fanfest (2 weeks from now) wonder if it will have the change. |

Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
752
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Posted - 2012.03.15 13:50:00 -
[73] - Quote
Nomad I wrote:With the Rorqual, the low price of the Hulk compared to 2006, the minerals anomalies and the masses of miners in 0.0, I guess the zyrine price will rise over 1000, but not over 2000 in mid term. It's actually safer to mine in 0.0 than in high sec now. I predict a huge press on the mineral market in the future too.
Well, you can make a safe assumption: The ISK/hr from mining ABCs in null-sec will need to approach the ISK/hr from ratting or running anoms. Assume that you'll have good Orca/Rorqual support and that each Hulk will pull 150k m3 of ore per hour.
As a rough guess, that means a target income of around 90M ISK/hr per hulk pilot. Above that and it would be too lucrative, below that and people will do other things instead. That means the average ore value needs to be 600 ISK/m3 or so, which might mean Ark at 700, Croc at 500 and Bist at 600.
Today's prices for ABCs are: 237 / 267 / 344, with mineral prices of Trit 4.64 Pye 5.32 Mex 55.14 Iso 73.94 Nocx 573 Zyd 1145 Mega 2731 Morph 4994.
Both Zyd and Mega would have to go up in price by about 75-80% in order to push the ABCs into the 500-700 ISK/m3 range. I can see that happening for Zydrine, but I don't see Megacyte going up that much.
However, if CCP was smart - they'd simply add more minerals to the ABCs (such as boosting the amount of Nocx/Zyd/Mega in those ores and adding a touch of Mexallon). And lower the m3/unit of Spod by a lot (16 m3 -> 8 m3). Which would accomplish the goal of making the ABCs more valuable in relation to the hi-sec ores as well as offsetting some of the supply issues with the removal of drone poo.
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Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
57
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Posted - 2012.03.15 14:35:00 -
[74] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote:Nomad I wrote:With the Rorqual, the low price of the Hulk compared to 2006, the minerals anomalies and the masses of miners in 0.0, I guess the zyrine price will rise over 1000, but not over 2000 in mid term. It's actually safer to mine in 0.0 than in high sec now. I predict a huge press on the mineral market in the future too. Well, you can make a safe assumption: The ISK/hr from mining ABCs in null-sec will need to approach the ISK/hr from ratting or running anoms. Assume that you'll have good Orca/Rorqual support and that each Hulk will pull 150k m3 of ore per hour. As a rough guess, that means a target income of around 90M ISK/hr per hulk pilot
Here are you wrong. Many poeple don't make more than 25million per tick in anomalies and they have to pay taxes. So 40m-60m per hour is a good profit from running anomalies. Multiaccount mining is always an option, even now.
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Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
190
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Posted - 2012.03.15 15:34:00 -
[75] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
As a rough guess, that means a target income of around 90M ISK/hr per hulk pilot.
Each hulk pilot can pilot several hulk alts and there's lower capital requirements than for ratting/anomaly running at that level. I imagine that the actual price won't be much different than it currently is for Ark (350 isk/m3 or about 40-45 mil/hr for really good miners who can mine 1800-2000 m3/min). We'd just see Bistot and Crokite come closer to matching it. That means a substantial rise in current zydrine prices along with the possibility of a drop in megacyte
I decided to run a calculation on the assumption that bistot and crokite get as close to ark in isk/m3 as possible. I assume also that nocxium prices don't change much, though one would expect a slight drop (so I decided to price nocxium at the good old round number of 500 isk). As a result, I get the following
At 350 isk/m3 (current levels), I get 1860 zyd and 2430 mega At 500 isk/m3 (roughly 54-60 mil/hr), I get 2760 zyd and 3420 mega At 650 isk/m3 (roughly 70-78 mil/hr), I get 3670 zyd and 4410 mega
Arkanor and crokite end up being equal (at the given isk/m3) while bistot is a few percent less (for example 335 isk/m3 at the first level). If I try to get all three to line up by allowing nocxium to vary as well, then I get a negative value for nocxium. It isn't possible for all three ores to be the same value, I think, unless one does some crazy things with the price of trit and pye
My feeling is that even this is in some error due to the overproduction of zydrine in these ores. Crokite and bistot produce a lot of zydrine and I gather they're a little more prevalent than arkanor. Arkanor also produces significant zydrine (half as much as megacyte). So I don't see these other ores actually achieving parity with arkanor except for short market fluctuations where zydrine spikes in price. So my best guess is that zydrine will be somewhat lower, say zydrine and megacyte around 1600 and 2550 respectively. |

Mookie Quantico
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
10
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Posted - 2012.03.15 15:55:00 -
[76] - Quote
While I agree with many of the points put forward by the esteemed peanut gallery, specifically:
a) Drone alloys getting nerfed, and b) the recent culling of botters,
helping a steady rise in high end minerals prices, there is one factor that has been missed.
c) the soul-sucking, mindless boredom that is the epitome of mining.
"Can't Be Arsed" will rule the day, and prices will rise -- because really, we've all got better things to do than mine.
Mook
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fugazii
Broski Enterprises Elite Space Guild
9
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Posted - 2012.03.15 18:09:00 -
[77] - Quote
Tasko Pal wrote:Crokite and bistot produce a lot of zydrine and I gather they're a little more prevalent than arkanor.
To the drum of all of Gurista space has only 1 sytstem with naturally occuring Arkonor. That system is 9p40.
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Wukulo
Senex Legio Get Off My Lawn
11
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Posted - 2012.03.15 23:33:00 -
[78] - Quote
Skydell wrote:This is a market manipulation, not a supply and demand issue.
A Nyx uses 825K Zydrine A Nyx uses 1.1 Billion Trit.
Zydrine is over rated.
So... because you need more trit Zydrine is worthless? I'm digging your logic. I'll take your Zydrine off your hands if you don't want it. |

Pheusia
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
20
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Posted - 2012.03.16 11:43:00 -
[79] - Quote
fugazii wrote:Tasko Pal wrote:Crokite and bistot produce a lot of zydrine and I gather they're a little more prevalent than arkanor. To the drum of all of Gurista space has only 1 sytstem with naturally occuring Arkonor. That system is 9p40.
Can upgraded systems produce mining anoms with Arkanor? |

Lucinda Hamu
Hedion University Amarr Empire
17
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Posted - 2012.03.16 12:29:00 -
[80] - Quote
Wukulo wrote:[quote=Skydell So... because you need more trit Zydrine is worthless?
I don't think he is saying that.
I think he is saying that 1. is being manipulated and 2. the high requirement for trit should be pushing prices up for Trit. Which makes logical sense imo. |
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Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
756
|
Posted - 2012.03.16 14:19:00 -
[81] - Quote
Tasko Pal wrote: At 350 isk/m3 (current levels), I get 1860 zyd and 2430 meg At 500 isk/m3 (roughly 54-60 mil/hr), I get 2760 zyd and 3420 meg At 650 isk/m3 (roughly 70-78 mil/hr), I get 3670 zyd and 4410 mega
(ponders Tasko's numbers) I guess it depends on whether you think mining is boring (some people enjoy it, especially as a social event). That view on mining will influence the ISK/hr number at which point you'll be tempted to mine rather then rat / anom / incursion
Today Trit 4.58 Pye 5.31 Mex 54.96 Iso 73.74 Nocx 567 Zyd 1173 Mega 2733 Morph 498
Guesses Trit 5.00 Pye 6.00 Mex 60 Iso 100 Nocx 500 Zyd 2200 Mega 3600 Morph 650 Veld 150 Scor 133 Pyro 173 Plag 170 Omb 110 Kern 181 Croc 406 Bist 426 Ark 48
I don't see Nocx going much higher then 500-ish, because when it does, Kernite gets immensely profitable compared to the other hi-sec ores (especially if Isogen also goes up). Omber still ends up as the laggard because it's outclassed by Kernite for Isogen production
I don't see Tritanium much above 5.00, because then Veldspar gets crazy, and that's too easy to mine in hi-sec in bulk
I am leaning more towards Zyd could hit 2200-2800, and possibly Megacyte rising to 3600-4000
Guesses Trit 5.00 Pye 6.50 Mex 65 Iso 100 Nocx 520 Zyd 2800 Mega 4000 Morph 750 Veld 150 Scor 137 Pyro 181 Plag 182 Omb 110 Kern 189 Croc 508 Bist 511 Ark 56
If any of the hi-sec ores run away from the others, the miners do move to favor that ore, which drags it back down to within 20% of its other hi-sec cousins. I don't think it's farfetched to see Pyrox/Plag/Kern at the top of the "hi-sec" ore pile, with Veld/Scor/Omb bringing up the rear
If CCP does remove the drone poo (or better, trim it back in stages), then the ABCs will definitely bring back a lot of their former glory. Without having to add more minerals to the ABCs (although I still think at least some Mex should be added)
Now we just need to get CCP to change Spod to only have a size of 8 or 10 m3/u, which would position it closer between Dark O and Croc in terms of ISK/m3. Maybe even lower the m3 size of Dark O down to 7 instead of 8. |

Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
191
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Posted - 2012.03.16 16:29:00 -
[82] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote: Today Trit 4.58 Pye 5.31 Mex 54.96 Iso 73.74 Nocx 567 Zyd 1173 Mega 2733 Morph 498
Guesses Trit 5.00 Pye 6.00 Mex 60 Iso 100 Nocx 500 Zyd 2200 Mega 3600 Morph 650 Veld 150 Scor 133 Pyro 173 Plag 170 Omb 110 Kern 181 Croc 406 Bist 426 Ark 48
At three hulks mining crokite in deep blue with 1800 m3/min apiece, that becomes 55 mil/hr per alt and 165 mil/hour in total. Someone will drop vanguards and anomalies for 65% more cash per hour. Even two mining alts gives slightly better isk/hour than shooting reds. High sec has modest income, but it adds up. 20 mil/hour per alt for kernite at those prices (and mining volume) and you can run a lot of alts. Roughly 15 hours would pay for most of the capital costs of the ships and 25 hours per month would pay for the alts themselves. Anything past that is gravy.
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lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
7
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Posted - 2012.03.16 18:11:00 -
[83] - Quote
Nocxium is about to follow the jump. Why? Because while only 40% of zydrine comes from drone compounds, drone region's share in nocxium is 51%. Nocxium prices are up 10% during last few days and people are buying it like crazy. One guy even put up a buy order for 100B.  |

Skydell
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
177
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Posted - 2012.03.17 06:31:00 -
[84] - Quote
Wukulo wrote:Skydell wrote:This is a market manipulation, not a supply and demand issue.
A Nyx uses 825K Zydrine A Nyx uses 1.1 Billion Trit.
Zydrine is over rated. So... because you need more trit Zydrine is worthless? I'm digging your logic. I'll take your Zydrine off your hands if you don't want it.
I never said it was worthless but if you are ever inclined to trade me the trit needed for a Nyx for the Zydrine, I'm game. |

Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
191
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Posted - 2012.03.17 11:43:00 -
[85] - Quote
Skydell wrote:
Things that use Zydrine require very little of it. many things don't require any Zydrine at all (T2 Heavy Missle Launchers)
And that point is irrelevant since you didn't consider supply too. Supply of zydrine is much lower and harder than supply of trit. |

Skydell
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
177
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Posted - 2012.03.17 17:08:00 -
[86] - Quote
Tasko Pal wrote:Skydell wrote:
Things that use Zydrine require very little of it. many things don't require any Zydrine at all (T2 Heavy Missle Launchers)
And that point is irrelevant since you didn't consider supply too. Supply of zydrine is much lower and harder than supply of trit.
That's what I am saying though, Zydrine supply is not low. It has never been low. The amount of Zydrine needed for the percentages used in productions could be met in reproc. Even if they do remove drone poo, they nerfed NOS years ago and smartbombs were never any good. Drop loots on off meta emissions transfer loot, NOS type mods and smartbombs alone will carry Zydrine demand. People might have stopped looting it because of Drone poo markets but once drone poo is gone, people will start running loot reproc sales again. We have never been in a shortage of Zydrine in EVE. |

Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
191
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Posted - 2012.03.17 17:20:00 -
[87] - Quote
Skydell wrote: That's what I am saying though, Zydrine supply is not low. It has never been low. The amount of Zydrine needed for the percentages used in productions could be met in reproc.
Reprocessing drone poo. That apparently will change.
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Skydell
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
177
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Posted - 2012.03.17 17:31:00 -
[88] - Quote
Tasko Pal wrote:Skydell wrote: That's what I am saying though, Zydrine supply is not low. It has never been low. The amount of Zydrine needed for the percentages used in productions could be met in reproc.
Reprocessing drone poo. That apparently will change.
Cut out all the valid points, ignore them. You win the forums. It still doesn't make Zydrine rare. |

Hemmo Paskiainen
Silver Snake Enterprise Against ALL Authorities
317
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Posted - 2012.03.17 18:29:00 -
[89] - Quote
keywords; chaining drones : exclusivity : general use : pre drone patch min prices : current increased use of mods.
CCP FIX BLACK OPS FFS |

Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2823
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Posted - 2012.03.17 19:16:00 -
[90] - Quote
Skydell wrote:Tasko Pal wrote:Skydell wrote:
Things that use Zydrine require very little of it. many things don't require any Zydrine at all (T2 Heavy Missle Launchers)
And that point is irrelevant since you didn't consider supply too. Supply of zydrine is much lower and harder than supply of trit. That's what I am saying though, Zydrine supply is not low. It has never been low. The amount of Zydrine needed for the percentages used in productions could be met in reproc. Even if they do remove drone poo, they nerfed NOS years ago and smartbombs were never any good. Drop loots on off meta emissions transfer loot, NOS type mods and smartbombs alone will carry Zydrine demand. People might have stopped looting it because of Drone poo markets but once drone poo is gone, people will start running loot reproc sales again. We have never been in a shortage of Zydrine in EVE. look at this idiot who thinks mods take up any appreciable amount of minerals |
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