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TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
65
   |
Posted - 2012.03.20 18:25:00 -
[1] - Quote
In that "other thread" I threw out this remark;
TornSoul wrote:Show me a 99% sure way of making even as little as 1% return on 10's of trillions each month - and I'll accept the challenge. 
It subsequently made me wonder, "how high can you go" before you can no longer sustain the 1% profit/month (with close to 99% certainty)
So my question is:
How much ISK *could* you turn around for 1% profit/month (month after month, year after year) (note I said *could* not "want to"  )
And how would you do it? (I don't think any trade secrets would be revealed by that - it's a measly 1% after all)
I'll start out with an obvious one myself.
Titan BPC's.
Highly dangerous market to venture into, both due to other players and not least CCP.
The glass ceiling here I would put at around 5-10 Titan BPC's a month - Lets call it 5 as to not be to over optimistic.
Baring in mind the competition and the (comparatively) low demand I think that's a fair "round number" for this exercise.
Lets also put a conservative value of 5B on each BPC (having the nerf bat in mind)
That puts it at just 25B a month..
And if 25B is 1% - the total amount would be 2.5T ISK (which is plenty for actually buying the needed amount of Titan BPO's to keep up the needed production of BPCs)
So is 2.5T the best one can do? (and in fact is the above even possible)
Comments and discussion please.
Be warned, if anyone finds a way to easily handle 50T I'll have to open a deposit bank  |
Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal
Fatal Ascension
100
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 18:37:00 -
[2] - Quote
How bad have t2 bpos become? <1% a month I assume? |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
65
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 18:39:00 -
[3] - Quote
Problem with t2 BPOs is availability.
I can go and buy 2.5T worth of Titan BPO's in the next 10 minutes if I wanted to.
Not so with (profitable) t2 BPO's. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
399
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 18:49:00 -
[4] - Quote
There might be a way but I am not going to discuss it in public. A functioning small demo of it is already running since a while.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
65
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 18:51:00 -
[5] - Quote
"might be a way" - Doesn't quite sound like 99% sure to me 
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Kara Roideater
Perkone
Caldari State
38
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 18:54:00 -
[6] - Quote
This might be cheating somewhat but I could get 10%+ returns a month out of a trillion isk.
How:
1) Take 100bil and run a business plan that returns 100% per month (labour intensive and boring but I have done it in the past).
2) Leave the other 900bil in the wallet (or bump the return slightly with a BPO farm etc).
At 10 trillion this would reduce to 1-2% per month depending on what's being done with the other 9.9 trillion.
The basic point is that the high returns you can get on smaller amounts can bulk out the limited returns from the excess, so a good starting buffer will support an average of 1% across a very large amount earning less than 1%. That will make the amount that a 1% average can be squeezed out of dependent on time availability for squeezing the maximum out of the smaller amount. |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
65
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 18:58:00 -
[7] - Quote
I would consider that within the "rules of the challenge".
I don't like the "labour intensive and boring" bit though... Considering part of the challenge would be to have to do it for years.
If you think that your Joe average wouldn't go insane doing it - I'd say we have a leader so far with 10T.
|
Kara Roideater
Perkone
Caldari State
38
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 19:01:00 -
[8] - Quote
Another way of thinking about it is to ask what is the maximum isk (not %) return you could get from running all time-viable business and then work out how much you could have doing nothing before the total return falls under 1%. So, time is going to be the constraining factor, as there are lots of high return things you can do with smaller amounts that would balance doing nothing with the bigger amounts. |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
66
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 19:06:00 -
[9] - Quote
Time is indeed the ultimate constraining factor (else mining roids would do the trick)
To constrain the time constraint , lets say this would have to be doable by one guy - But any number of accounts allowed.
Just to put some kind of cap on it (else the roid mining wins every time)
|
Kara Roideater
Perkone
Caldari State
38
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 19:12:00 -
[10] - Quote
TornSoul wrote:I would consider that within the "rules of the challenge".
I don't like the "labour intensive and boring" bit though... Considering part of the challenge would be to have to do it for years.
If you think that your Joe average wouldn't go insane doing it - I'd say we have a leader so far with 10T.
You could do it for years without going insane but it would feel like a psychologically unrewarding full-time job. How long you could stomach it is really dependent on what stage the isk becomes meaningless to you.
As to maxing things out, with a team to split the tasks I have a sufficient library of business plans to churn out at least 250bil a month if they were all fully funded. That would take a lot of people grinding the plans, though, and probably something like a trillion or more in actively used capital but would sustain 1% on 25tril. If you expand the labour base I could probably find another 250bil of opportunities in a week or two but I'm not sure you would want to go down this road as you could, with enough time/labour, take a 10% slice of every trade and manufacturing opportunity in the game (or more depending on what % of the eve population you enslave to your nefarious scheme  ). God knows what that would return, but quite a lot I suspect. I might be best to ask the question within a fixed framework of time expenditure.
Edit -Rgr. was posting when you replied. |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
66
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 19:25:00 -
[11] - Quote
OK - So just for score keeping.
One guy - 10T aka 100B profit is what you say could be done with your scheme? |
Kara Roideater
Perkone
Caldari State
38
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 19:49:00 -
[12] - Quote
TornSoul wrote:OK - So just for score keeping.
One guy - 10T aka 100B profit is what you say could be done with your scheme?
Yeah, one guy could manage that. But let's add your Titan BPC farm as well, as that could be run concurrently by the same person, for 125bil profit total or 1% on 12.5 trillion.
The most I've ever heard someone claim to be able to earn a month was 168bil but I can't speak to the truth of it. It was on a large scale manufacturing operation, so I assume that the invested capital would be under 10 trillion. |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
66
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 19:58:00 -
[13] - Quote
Would you care to elaborate on that 100B 100% business plan - Just a little bit.
At that "low" capital amount I'd understand not wanting to give away the whole thing.
But just the general gist of it
(so that others can evaluate if you're full.. of err hot air or not - I say that jovially Please don't take offense) |
Kara Roideater
Perkone
Caldari State
38
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 20:46:00 -
[14] - Quote
TornSoul wrote:Would you care to elaborate on that 100B 100% business plan - Just a little bit. At that "low" capital amount I'd understand not wanting to give away the whole thing. But just the general gist of it (so that others can evaluate if you're full.. of err hot air or not - I say that jovially Please don't take offense)
Heh - none taken. I was running this business with the single workload distributed over a three-man corp when VV audited me about a year ago (I collected a quarter of the profit for c. 1-1.5 hours work a day ). I'm not sure if she looked into the corp business in detail or not because the audit was of me as an individual but she might be able to offer some verification. I've also licensed out the plan a few times but I don't think any of the licensees ever got up to the full potential heights (and the current licensee might not want his name mentioned in case he becomes a target).
Now, it's hard to say too much without giving the game away but the overall plan is an integrated and optimally efficient trade/manufacturing business (buying mats from buy orders, building, selling the finished product on sell orders, all within highsec). It is the efficiency that really pays off, so it is not so much the market niches (which are quite numerous) that are at issue, so much as very, very fast turnaround combined with absolutely minimal time and resource wastage. The efficiency is the ultimate problem, though, because once you have that maxed out there is absolutely nothing left of interest to do (except occassionally rotating product lines). At that point it is just a case of rinse and repeat, day after day after day. So I had enormous fun building the system but got very little satisfaction from running it as I don't actually do anything with my isk other than try to make more isk and most other isk-making schemes (bar the supercap production) seem superfluous now (although I would very much like to know a bit more about the claimed 168bil/month plan!).
I'm not really sure what more I can safely say ... the first 50bil of capital and the first half of the time used earns about 75-80% of the profits; the plan involves building less than 200 different item types per day; best to be as close to Jita as possible ... but I'm not sure I can say too much that will offer any real confirmation of my claim without running through the numbers publicly (which I will do if my licensee ever stops stumping up my cut ).
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TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
66
|
Posted - 2012.03.20 21:30:00 -
[15] - Quote
That's plenty good enough description for me.
Kara Roideater wrote: So I had enormous fun building the system but got very little satisfaction from running it
^^ Amen brother I know exactly what you mean. |
DoraTheExplora Taft
The Management.
9
|
Posted - 2012.03.21 02:40:00 -
[16] - Quote
The problem is the market isn't big enough to make this easy. You could probably sink it into commodities over the course of several months without distorting the market way up and losing isk. Then you could slowly sell back over the course of several months. Assuming general inflation continues then that would be a sure way. As for what those commodities actually would be I guess it would have to be as many of them as possible and whichever have the largest market, again so as not to create a bubble.
Course the only problem with this is the small isk traders out compete you in the .01 isk war so... idk honestly. Maybe giant contracts for high volume to get around the market? idk. |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
67
|
Posted - 2012.03.21 09:44:00 -
[17] - Quote
DoraTheExplora Taft wrote:The problem is the market isn't big enough to make this easy
Yup there's a limit.
Hence this "challenge".
Just how high can you go?
I'm off to catch a plane to FF now, looking forward to seeing more ideas when I get back |
Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
373
|
Posted - 2012.03.21 12:14:00 -
[18] - Quote
A trillion ... can hire a lot of mercs with that. Threaten people, extortion. Not my style, but wouldn't put it past someone in Eve. |
Liberty Eternal
Taggart Transdimensional
Virtue of Selfishness
33
|
Posted - 2012.03.21 12:53:00 -
[19] - Quote
TornSoul wrote:In that "other thread" I threw out this remark; TornSoul wrote:Show me a 99% sure way of making even as little as 1% return on 10's of trillions each month - and I'll accept the challenge. It subsequently made me wonder, "how high can you go" before you can no longer sustain the 1% profit/month (with close to 99% certainty)
That degree of profit is probably achievable, but the degree of certainty you're asking for must surely be impossible. You would only be able to channel the money through very safe pathways to keep it at 99% probability.
The obvious answer that springs to mind is that you would have to collaborate with a group of experienced traders and investors. If not necessarilly sharing money, then sharing information and tasks. There are many half-active traders out there who might enjoy the challenge. |
Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal
Fatal Ascension
101
|
Posted - 2012.03.21 12:59:00 -
[20] - Quote
DoraTheExplora Taft wrote:The problem is the market isn't big enough to make this easy. You could probably sink it into commodities over the course of several months without distorting the market way up and losing isk. Then you could slowly sell back over the course of several months. Assuming general inflation continues then that would be a sure way. As for what those commodities actually would be I guess it would have to be as many of them as possible and whichever have the largest market, again so as not to create a bubble.
As a reprehensibly lazy commodities trader for over a year and 100b in profits now I can confirm that it is not easy to get guaranteed returns, and it gets harder and harder as you try to pump more money in.
If we were just talking about methods where you could hypothetically inject huge sums of isk for profit, then yes. However, the challenge has been fleshed out to exclude activities that amount to a second full time job, where you really could be applying the same effort in real life and making real money.
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Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal
Fatal Ascension
102
|
Posted - 2012.03.21 13:01:00 -
[21] - Quote
Liberty Eternal wrote:The obvious answer that springs to mind is that you would have to collaborate with a group of experienced traders and investors. If not necessarilly sharing money, then sharing information and tasks. There are many half-active traders out there who might enjoy the challenge.
This general direction is where my mind went as well.
You achieve it by leveraging the work of others...just like in real life :P
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Bad Bobby
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
56
|
Posted - 2012.03.21 13:48:00 -
[22] - Quote
Darth Tickles wrote:How bad have t2 bpos become? <1% a month I assume?
The overall manufacturing ROI on my T2 BPO portfolio is about 3%.
TornSoul wrote:Problem with t2 BPOs is availability.
Absolutely.
In order to get good manufacturing returns you need to choose your T2 BPOs very carefully. Some months I might pick up one or two BPOs, most months I can't even find one worth buying... and not much get's past me.
TornSoul wrote:Titan BPC's.
Highly dangerous market to venture into, both due to other players and not least CCP.
The glass ceiling here I would put at around 5-10 Titan BPC's a month - Lets call it 5 as to not be to over optimistic.
Baring in mind the competition and the (comparatively) low demand I think that's a fair "round number" for this exercise.
Lets also put a conservative value of 5B on each BPC (having the nerf bat in mind)
That puts it at just 25B a month..
And if 25B is 1% - the total amount would be 2.5T ISK (which is plenty for actually buying the needed amount of Titan BPO's to keep up the needed production of BPCs)
The prime time for investing in Titan BPOs is long past. Just take a quick look at the market history to see how many BPOs have been sold in the last year and take a look at Supercarrier BPOs and BPCs for an illustration of where things are headed.
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TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
68
|
Posted - 2012.03.27 18:11:00 -
[23] - Quote
Darth Tickles wrote:Liberty Eternal wrote:The obvious answer that springs to mind is that you would have to collaborate with a group of experienced traders and investors. If not necessarilly sharing money, then sharing information and tasks. There are many half-active traders out there who might enjoy the challenge. This general direction is where my mind went as well. You achieve it by leveraging the work of others...just like in real life :P
In which case you could argue hundreds of trillions are already being utilized this way (if you add up all traders)
Which is why I limited it to what one player could do.
Bad Bobby wrote:
The prime time for investing in Titan BPOs is long past.
Totally agree - I just put it there to start the ball rolling.
Another really bad thing about the Titan BPC business (at that scale) is that it would be a major PITA to try and liquidate should it become necessary.
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Rothgore
P Brain
3
|
Posted - 2012.03.31 21:48:00 -
[24] - Quote
- |
Dylan Dudicle
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2012.04.01 17:22:00 -
[25] - Quote
Market Manipulation.
Buy and Hold. |
Phoenix Pryde
3-I Area 42
0
|
Posted - 2012.04.01 18:13:00 -
[26] - Quote
The real problem is to sustain the motivation past the trillion(s) mark ;P
But in average if you keep active and just do something profitable with at least decent chunks of the ISK i d say the 1% profit of your total NAV should be doable to at least a couple T.
I am saying in average because its obviously very much possible to get more than 1% profit, but i dare say that there isnt many ppl who would/could truly grind on forever with such capital. Far more likely (and more enjoyable) to take on different ventures as they come up (most likely only with parts of the capital, but for higher profits).
As a comment on T2 BPOs, a large multi-T portfolio probably nets more of around 1-1.5% per month in the long term (valued at contemporary market values). That said, it ofc would depend on the specifics, but a too strong focus can bite you in the ass.
The 'easiest' way might just be margin trading.
How high you put that number of ISK keeping at work really is throttled by the effort you want to put in mostly. The market gives some ceiling, but i think time & effort will get to you first :P
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Bad Bobby
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
57
|
Posted - 2012.04.01 18:48:00 -
[27] - Quote
Phoenix Pryde wrote:The real problem is to sustain the motivation past the trillion(s) mark ;P
I haven't found that to be an issue, at least not at the 1-2 trillion mark.
The issue I've been having is that I just don't have enough isk to take advantage of all the oppertunities.
But, and this is a big but: there is a significant amount of risk in my portfolio. TornSoul is looking for "sure things".
Another major limiting factor for me is mental capacity. I'm not all that intelligent and I can't handle mental arithmatic at all, so most of my "market player" friends leave me in their dust. |
AureoBroker
Natural Inventions
Solyaris Chtonium
12
|
Posted - 2012.04.01 21:30:00 -
[28] - Quote
Social engineering seemed to have worked better than math for you, anyway. ;p |
Bad Bobby
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
57
|
Posted - 2012.04.02 05:32:00 -
[29] - Quote
AureoBroker wrote:Social engineering seemed to have worked better than math for you, anyway. ;p
You have to work with what you have.
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Xaqa
Cryptic Arch
0
|
Posted - 2012.04.02 07:22:00 -
[30] - Quote
bumping for interest |
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