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Maxpie
Metaphysical Utopian Society Explorations
61
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Posted - 2012.04.02 22:22:00 -
[1] - Quote
I've seen people predict anywhere from 800 to 1600. Between the Pax Amarria change and the upcoming drone region nerfs, I ask you MD, where do you think it will 'settle in' in the foreseeable future?
I'm thinking 800 because there will be vast reserves held by people anticipating a rise which will counterbalance the decreased supply. But in reality, I have no clue tbh, this I'm asking your opinions. |
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
405
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Posted - 2012.04.02 22:48:00 -
[2] - Quote
Maxpie wrote:I've seen people predict anywhere from 800 to 1600. Between the Pax Amarria change and the upcoming drone region nerfs, I ask you MD, where do you think it will 'settle in' in the foreseeable future?
I'm thinking 800 because there will be vast reserves held by people anticipating a rise which will counterbalance the decreased supply. But in reality, I have no clue tbh, this I'm asking your opinions.
1100-1500
Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE!
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524 |
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
818
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Posted - 2012.04.03 00:18:00 -
[3] - Quote
Best guess, 800-900 come end of July 2012.
Zydrine probably somewhere around 2500.
Short-term, depending on the Apr 24th changes and market panic might see some much higher numbers. |
Akeirah
Pixel Universe Brokerage Services
3
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Posted - 2012.04.03 01:01:00 -
[4] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote:Best guess, 800-900 come end of July 2012.
Zydrine probably somewhere around 2500.
Short-term, depending on the Apr 24th changes and market panic might see some much higher numbers.
I would agree with this for the most part, however my best guess is that prices will settle down closer to mid-July, with nocx in that range. I'd put Zydrine closer to 2100. That gives the people plenty of time to train up miners, find the systems they like, get the industrial levels up, and start producing a reliable supply.
Between mid-April and the beginning of June... It will probably get around 40-60% higher than that before the dust settles. |
enterprisePSI
86
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Posted - 2012.04.03 09:04:00 -
[5] - Quote
over 9000.
The tears of the many, outweight the tears of the few. Or the one.
-«enterprise-psi |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
487
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Posted - 2012.04.03 10:08:00 -
[6] - Quote
It will probably form a control bar, which will be a good tool to gauge about the new market equilibrium and where to buy or sell.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Raven Ether
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
124
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Posted - 2012.04.03 10:27:00 -
[7] - Quote
In last night's dream I saw 950isk per unit sometime soon. |
Debiru
Flashpoint Industries
0
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Posted - 2012.04.03 17:57:00 -
[8] - Quote
I don't see Nocxium going above 1,100 ISK in the long run and most likely stabilizing under that (800 would be my guess for final price), and Zydrine has already started to stabilize somewhat, though it will probably rise slightly again once the stockpiles people are trying to sell run low. I don't see Zydrine breaking past 2,000 except for brief periods of time. |
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
406
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Posted - 2012.04.03 18:14:00 -
[9] - Quote
Debiru wrote:I don't see Nocxium going above 1,100 ISK in the long run and most likely stabilizing under that (800 would be my guess for final price), and Zydrine has already started to stabilize somewhat, though it will probably rise slightly again once the stockpiles people are trying to sell run low. I don't see Zydrine breaking past 2,000 except for brief periods of time.
People don't understand or know that drone alloys (which are 40% (give or take) of the high mineral supply) are going away!
Supply is going to get cut, hard!
Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE!
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524 |
Raven Ether
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
125
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Posted - 2012.04.03 18:36:00 -
[10] - Quote
|| Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% ||
||-----------||------||-------||------------------||
|| Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% ||
|| Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% ||
|| Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% ||
|| Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% ||
|| Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% ||
|| Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% ||
|| Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% ||
|| Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||
This chart, while old, gives an idea more or less of what comes in large quantities and what doesn't from the Drone Regions.
Interpret it as you will and take actions accordingly. |
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Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
818
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Posted - 2012.04.03 18:46:00 -
[11] - Quote
Riley Moore wrote:
People don't understand or know that drone alloys (which are 40% (give or take) of the high mineral supply) are going away!
Supply is going to get cut, hard!
Assuming: Trit 5 Pye 6 Mex 60 Iso 95 Nocx 1000 Zyd 1800 Mega 4000 Morph 7500
Then the ores look like:
Veld 150 Scor 133 Pyro 228 Plag 169 Omb 105 Kern 177 Jasp 294 Hemo 335 Hedb 320
Gneiss 176 DarkO 297 Spod 145 Croc 382 Bist 405 Ark 510
Pyrox gets far ahead of the other hi-sec ores, which means lots of people will move systems/regions to get at it. That will drive down Mex/Trit prices and ease the pressure on Nocx.
If Nocx goes to 1200 ISK/u:
Veld 150 Scor 133 Pyro 250 Plag 169 Omb 105 Kern 177 Jasp 346 Hemo 392 Hedb 368
Gneiss 176 DarkO 329 Spod 145 Croc 398 Bist 405 Ark 510
Nocx at 1500:
Veld 150 Scor 133 Pyro 283 Plag 169 Omb 105 Kern 177 Jasp 423 Hemo 477 Hedb 438
Gneiss 176 DarkO 375 Spod 145 Croc 423 Bist 405 Ark 510
Over the long term, the hi-sec ores almost always end up within 20% ISK/m3 value of each other. It's too easy to move your operation from mining a less valuable ore to a more valuable ore. And if you can make 20% more by moving systems/regions, a lot of folks will eventually move to harvest the best hi-sec ores.
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Akeirah
Pixel Universe Brokerage Services
4
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Posted - 2012.04.03 19:07:00 -
[12] - Quote
Riley Moore wrote:
People don't understand or know that drone alloys (which are 40% (give or take) of the high mineral supply) are going away!
Supply is going to get cut, hard!
How much of the drone alloy supply goes directly into supercap production? I'm certain that the alliances relying on this will be quick to put miners in the belts to get their own supply back up, and to avoid having to import more from a market hub. There is probably a good amount of that 40% that never sees the general market. |
Raven Ether
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
125
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Posted - 2012.04.03 19:09:00 -
[13] - Quote
Akeirah wrote:Riley Moore wrote:
People don't understand or know that drone alloys (which are 40% (give or take) of the high mineral supply) are going away!
Supply is going to get cut, hard!
How much of the drone alloy supply goes directly into supercap production? I'm certain that the alliances relying on this will be quick to put miners in the belts to get their own supply back up, and to avoid having to import more from a market hub. There is probably a good amount of that 40% that never sees the general market.
But that takes time to set up and those miners need some motivation from increased market prices to actually mine, which is exactly our point here: Nocxium and Zydrine getting more expensive for a long while. |
Debiru
Flashpoint Industries
0
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Posted - 2012.04.04 20:30:00 -
[14] - Quote
Riley Moore wrote:Debiru wrote:I don't see Nocxium going above 1,100 ISK in the long run and most likely stabilizing under that (800 would be my guess for final price), and Zydrine has already started to stabilize somewhat, though it will probably rise slightly again once the stockpiles people are trying to sell run low. I don't see Zydrine breaking past 2,000 except for brief periods of time. People don't understand or know that drone alloys (which are 40% (give or take) of the high mineral supply) are going away! Supply is going to get cut, hard!
And then supply will rise back again once Zydrine and Nocxium becomes more profitable. There are already people racing to harvest the highsec Pyroxeres deposits.
Furthermore, the values on Drone-to-Ore came before wormholes and (IIRC) the Orca. While nullsec alliances always had the Rorqual for mining ops, it's hideously expensive and was kept safely tucked away most of the time, just providing the bonuses. Now the Orcas are out in force and have increased the supply of nullsec ores via alliances drastically. While much of that production does go into cap/supercap production, some of it is still rerouted to highsec. Then factor in the amount of wormhole corps out mining nowadays, whose minerals generally go straight back into highsec, and you've got an increased supply from ores compared to that of Drones, which as was mentioned before, goes into supercap production most of the time anyway. Large amounts of high-end minerals in highsec comes from loot reprocessing and wormhole mining, not drones. Most mission runners don't loot, and those that do usually ignore drone missions and bypass them. So the speculation on the impact of highsec mineral availability has been drastically overpredicted. Though that was intentional by many people in order to spike prices higher which was good for their wallet (and the overall market in my opinion). |
Intar Medris
Globaltech Industries
Eternal Evocations
33
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Posted - 2012.04.04 20:59:00 -
[15] - Quote
I predict mineral prices will be 60-100% higher than they are now with 6 months, and once again the people of New Eden will respect miners. Not prosecute them. If you paid any attention to the graphs presented at fanfest you will see that the amount of ore mined is rapidly decreasing. In fact I have hardly seen another mining vessel this last week. Infact mining has caught up with missioning in ISK per hour. The lowly Veldspar is now the 2nd most profitable ore in Highsec. Trit could very well hit 12-15 ISK per unit. A new dawn is coming, and miners are enjoying all the ISK rolling in. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
141
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Posted - 2012.04.04 21:23:00 -
[16] - Quote
Intar Medris wrote:and once again the people of New Eden will respect miners. Not prosecute them.
You're a funny one.  |
Dandro Gaterau
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
0
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Posted - 2012.04.04 23:19:00 -
[17] - Quote
Nocx just reached 876 - 990
Panic buying? No miners left after bot bans?
Edit: some minutes later: buy @900 / sell @1000 |
Javajunky
Eternity INC.
Goonswarm Federation
2
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Posted - 2012.04.05 05:00:00 -
[18] - Quote
Debiru wrote:Riley Moore wrote:[quote=Debiru]I don't see Nocxium going above 1,100 ISK in the long run and most likely stabilizing under that (800 would be my guess for final price), and Zydrine has already started to stabilize somewhat, though it will probably rise slightly again once the stockpiles people are trying to sell run low. I don't see Zydrine breaking past 2,000 except for brief periods of time. bla blah stuff here blah blah Furthermore, the values on Drone-to-Ore came before wormholes and (IIRC) the Orca. While nullsec alliances always had the Rorqual for mining ops, it's hideously expensive and was kept safely tucked away most of the time, just providing the bonuses. Now the Orcas are out in force and have increased the supply of nullsec ores via alliances drastically. While much of that production does go into cap/supercap production, some of it is still rerouted to highsec. Then factor in the amount of wormhole corps out mining nowadays, whose minerals generally go straight back into highsec, and you've got an increased supply from ores compared to that of Drones, which as was mentioned before, goes into supercap production most of the time anyway. Large amounts of high-end minerals in highsec comes from loot reprocessing and wormhole mining, not drones. Most mission runners don't loot, and those that do usually ignore drone missions and bypass them. So the speculation on the impact of highsec mineral availability has been drastically overpredicted. Though that was intentional by many people in order to spike prices higher which was good for their wallet (and the overall market in my opinion).
Mine much?
WH mining, is mining of opportunity. Remember WH Grav sites are a "chance" to spawn you can mine a system out and not see anythign for weeks. Unlike other sites, you are less inclined to mine an adjacent WH due to the mass restrictions, only a handful of trips to make a orca close up most WHs. Rorquals do exist in WH space, but there biggest value value add is compression, any serious WH mining group is not going to spend time chasing WH openings when they can throw a rorq in and get a grav site out in 2 trips.
I don't see where you get your logic related to Orca's or Rorquals, while most corps and alliances have something boosting if they are running an op, the reality is the biggest boosts to null sec were the T2 mining boosts, the Grav site changes (Crucible) and not the ability to move or compress ore as much mining is done in systems that have refineries.
It's going to be quite a while before equilibrium is reached, the amount of minerals being sat on by speculators is just freakin enormous. All in all I find all the speculaation for high and low numbers quite interesting.
No offense man, not trying to troll... just not seeing the logic.
One thing for sure, it's an exciting time to be a miner and a speculator... |
Mhax Arthie
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
0
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Posted - 2012.04.05 05:55:00 -
[19] - Quote
I'm new to EVE and I still don't have a clue what this Noxcium is and used for, but made me "rich" because I saw somebody mentioning that Pax Amarria in the chat. So I invested all my money in buying with 620 and selling with 1150, nub's luck. This game is: a w e s o m e. |
Rockius
Templar Corps
0
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Posted - 2012.04.05 06:10:00 -
[20] - Quote
I was crunching some numbers on ore and mineral prices in the Dodixie Hub and heres what I found.
All calculations were done using last weeks buy order prices compared to this weeks.
Veldspar ores saw an average 11.50% price increase.
Scordite ores saw an average 13.33% price increase.
Omber ores saw an average 5.4% price increase.
Plagioclase ores saw an average 6.5% price increase.
Tritanuim went up from 4.11 to per unit 4.70 a 12.55% increase
Pyerite went up from 4.65 per unit to 5.62 a 17.25% increase
Isogen went up from 67.04 per unit to 71.00 a 5.57% increase
Mexallon went up from 46.56 per unit to 48.65 a 4.29% increase
Megacyte went up from 2758.14 per unit to 3501 a 21.21% increase
Nocxium went up from 557 per unit to 998.95 a 44.24% increase
Zydrine went up from 966.14 per unit to 1791.96 a 46.07% increase
Morphite went up from 4998.99 per unit to 8450 a 40.48% increase
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