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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.09 15:03:00 -
[1]
Seems like a LOT of people already failed to do the math on the "alchemy" reactions and are driving the price of Cadmium far above sustainable levels for the time being... we can only hope that hyperinflated cadmium price will be coming down shortly, as everybody and their dog start occupying Cadmium moons too.
STILL, we do have a slight problem : some of those occupying Cadmium moons will feel it justifiable (from an effort/logistical viewpoint) to import the rest of things and react Cadmium as Dysprosium substitute - while maybe the overall supply of Cadmium could come up due to moon occupancy, the ACTUAL supply of Cadmium (for "regular" Cadmium reactions, that is) will be going down, and Cadmium price up (well, down compared to today's hyperinflated values, but still up compared to the price from, say, a month ago).
Not only that, but ice prices seem to also be heading up, meaning REGULAR reaction cost will also go up across the board, and regular Cadmium reactions will undoubtedly skyrocket in price.
One can only hope the "blasternerf" (accompanied by medium drone nerf) will make people less likely to get T2 Gallente ships, but we still have the issue of the Hulk and Mackinaw (especially the Mackinaw, now that ice prices are going up) which might see an even higher demand... so all in all, Cadmium-related products are certainly going to head up.
Those of you that already REACT things with Cadmium in it might want to double-check the prices before you sell your products - you might get a lot more for it if you wait a week, until right after the patch.
If your reaction includes Cadmium in any way... a recalculation might be in order 
Undoubtedly, this issue is already covered over in MD, so I was just going to give the S&I crowd the heads-up : beware the Cadmium moons and our new Cadmium overlords...
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Einstein's Ghost
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Posted - 2008.11.09 17:07:00 -
[2]
Interesting times ahead 
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.09 18:07:00 -
[3]
Also, flying in stuff from other parts of the galaxy to Jita might be a good idea - the Jita markets already reacted days ago to some extent, and will react violently post-patch.
Buying off all minor hubs and hauling everything to Jita might be a good idea.
Last but not least, the in-game-market 30-day GTC tokens being "unmovable", that will only make Jita more attractive to all kinds of people, and the hardware upgrades allowing a much larger local population...
...well, I guess you can figure out where this is headed.
Interesting times indeed 
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Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2008.11.09 19:12:00 -
[4]
Sorry but why did you feel the need to create another thread about Cadmium price?
BPOs
Interested in Orca BPO? |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.09 20:02:00 -
[5]
Visibility and clarity ?
The only one other thread around here relating to alchemy only makes vague long-term predictions about the presumable equilibrium price in the distant future, and the viability of alchemy reactions.
This one here simply points out the fact you should never underestimate the stupidity of extractors and/or reactants, and the fact that most cadmium-related products already shifted prices heavily.
OBVIOUSLY a big part of the shift in price is market manipulation, however that doesn't change the fact today's manipulation will have repercussions further down the reacting chain with a roughly one-week delay (as usual) for each intermediate reaction step... so even if cadmium prices would go back to "regular" levels, you will still see a bump in the other components later on.
In other words, this thread is a direct and clear warning to all Cadmium reactants to re-check their costs properly least they get shafted without even realizing it.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.10 03:49:00 -
[6]
The unknown in all this Alchemy mess, is the fact that sov changes (even though they are warranted and apparently wanted as well) have not rolled in.
So we have literally a possible hundred or so moons out there with Sov towers and possible reactors going up within days of patch (or already in the process, if you fly around enough you'll see it in action)
I made the prediction here and elsewhere.
Cad up for a month or two.
Dyspro down for a month or two.
Ice prices up for 3 months (slightly longer than its standard cycle times).
And the entire Gal chain, more specifically Crystal Carb, up at least 30-40%
In short, if you're in the market for a Hulk, buy it now rather than later. 88m is going to look like a steal in about 2 months. |
Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2008.11.10 04:53:00 -
[7]
 Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
The unknown in all this Alchemy mess, is the fact that sov changes (even though they are warranted and apparently wanted as well) have not rolled in.
So we have literally a possible hundred or so moons out there with Sov towers and possible reactors going up within days of patch (or already in the process, if you fly around enough you'll see it in action)
I made the prediction here and elsewhere.
Cad up for a month or two.
Dyspro down for a month or two.
Ice prices up for 3 months (slightly longer than its standard cycle times).
And the entire Gal chain, more specifically Crystal Carb, up at least 30-40%
In short, if you're in the market for a Hulk, buy it now rather than later. 88m is going to look like a steal in about 2 months.
What exactly are these sov changes Kaz? They've slipped under my radar so far.
Improve Market Competition! |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.10 09:56:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Cad up for a month or two.
Dyspro down for a month or two.
Ice prices up for 3 months (slightly longer than its standard cycle times).
And the entire Gal chain, more specifically Crystal Carb, up at least 30-40%
Within reasonable margins of error and likely market manipulation forces pulling either way depending on day, yeah, that would be my general prediction too.
Originally by: Kylar Renpurs
What exactly are these sov changes Kaz? They've slipped under my radar so far.
They'll probably only come in march 2009 or later, and it's basically a decoupling of the Sov. system from the POS system... they don't know yet exactly the details of the replacement(s), but that much is a given : you won't have to just keep a horde of POS up to get/have/keep Sov.
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Brazero
Amarr
Noble House
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Posted - 2008.11.10 10:47:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Brock Nelson
Sorry but why did you feel the need to create another thread about Cadmium price?
Trying to beat Shikari's post record 
Nah, not likely 
Originally by: Rodj Blake
CCP are planning to give Amarrians some "oomph"
Unfortunately, "oomph" is the sound one makes when kicked repeatedly in the ribs.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.10 13:15:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Kylar Renpurs
What exactly are these sov changes Kaz? They've slipped under my radar so far.
They'll probably only come in march 2009 or later, and it's basically a decoupling of the Sov. system from the POS system... they don't know yet exactly the details of the replacement(s), but that much is a given : you won't have to just keep a horde of POS up to get/have/keep Sov.
What Akita said. It was in a recent Dev Blog, about alchemy I think, where it was mentioned in passing that the sov system is in the pipeline for a revamp. Back at the last CSM meeting with CCP it was also discussed about decoupling it as well.
Based on the implementation of FW, I think it would be safe to assume that model is the direction they will move towards instead of tower spamming as it stands now.
Which would be nice, since it eliminates the need for hot dropping titans, blobs, etc.. and forces an alliance to actually patrol their space. But thats a discussion for another forum for another day. |
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Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2008.11.10 23:01:00 -
[11]
Quote:
Based on the implementation of FW, I think it would be safe to assume that model is the direction they will move towards instead of tower spamming as it stands now.
Which would be nice, since it eliminates the need for hot dropping titans, blobs, etc.. and forces an alliance to actually patrol their space. But thats a discussion for another forum for another day.
I hope so, because that'd do great leaps for improving small gang warfare in 0.0 to be useful in claiming sov, yet still leave "blobs" necessary for killing off alliance infrastructure.
Would be interesting to see if this made it more or less dangerous to roam 0.0
Improve Market Competition! |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.12 21:29:00 -
[12]
Current Jita situation :
* Cadmium up x3.some (with a high of over x4), probably might drop a bit more before stabilizing at least at x2 maybe even x2.5 of old prices
* Crystallite Alloy up x2 relatively stable now with a slight bump in the past week, might get down to only 70%-80% final price increase
* Prometium (not Promethium) still kinda' stable (and, well, it should remain relatively stable sieng it's the Cadmium/Promethium combo)
* Caesarium Cadmide up aprox 30%-40% most likely to rise soon to Crystallite Alloy levels
* Crystalline Carbonide up aprox 15%-25% and same comment as above
* Phenolic Composites up 20% with a nearly 35% high spike, probably to increase again in the future to levels similar or slightly higher than the spike before
* Fermionic Condensates had a big unjustified spike but seem to be almost back on track now (Promethium is still the main cost ingredient not poor Cadmium)
No comment
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
RC Denton
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Posted - 2008.11.12 21:49:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
The unknown in all this Alchemy mess, is the fact that sov changes (even though they are warranted and apparently wanted as well) have not rolled in.
So we have literally a possible hundred or so moons out there with Sov towers and possible reactors going up within days of patch (or already in the process, if you fly around enough you'll see it in action)
I made the prediction here and elsewhere.
Cad up for a month or two.
Dyspro down for a month or two.
Ice prices up for 3 months (slightly longer than its standard cycle times).
And the entire Gal chain, more specifically Crystal Carb, up at least 30-40%
In short, if you're in the market for a Hulk, buy it now rather than later. 88m is going to look like a steal in about 2 months.
I think a flaw with this assumption is that the supply will not go up as well. I generally played in the low end of the moon min market with plat and chrome, but I imagine that cadmium and other moons which were considered marginal at best and so have not been mined to this point will open up and the supply will increase. We'll see another equillibrium point occur at some time in the near to med future but I doubt it will be a huge increase to current prices. Right now we're just seeing a speculative bubble, so sell cadmium if you have it ;).
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.12 22:35:00 -
[14]
It's quite simple, actually - they basically linked the price of cadmium with the price of dysprosium, at slightly less than 1:20 ratio (you have to consider fuel costs and time constraints too, so more realistically 1:30 or even lower, heck, make that 1:40 and it's VERY convenient and profitable to react with Cadmium instead of Dysprosium).
The price of dysprosium won't shift much, considering the ENTIRE supply of cadmium in the universe would barely dent the bar of the dysprosium volume, and cadmium is needed elsewhere too, so most likely it will just be a slight supply of material increase with no significant price drop in the long term.
So, basically, as long as dysprosium stays in the 60-70k area (and it will probably GO BACK UP AGAIN to 80-100k after the fear-of-alchemy price level drop subsides), that's still 2k-2.5k for Cadmium (compared to 1k like before and 3-4k like nowadays).
Cadmium goes up, all reactions with Cadmium go up too eventually, like described/predicted above in my previous post.
Feel free to ignore the predictions, like most people do... only to go "oh, if I only knew" couple of months later (as I'm already more than used to hearing from people that ignore predictions, heh).
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Tamarana
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Posted - 2008.11.12 23:35:00 -
[15]
I wrote this in the Science and Industry: Economics of "Alchemy"
I copy and paste it here:
I did a few back of the envelope math about hte economics of a post "alchemy" patch. This is what I found:
The price of Cadmium, used to produce Ferrofluid, will not rise big time.
This is because the POS fuel will be a large part of the cost of the ferrofluid produced. Currently a medium POS use around 150 K isk/hour of fuel. This translate in a 15 K isk/unit of ferrofluid cost only for the fuel. Add 10 units of Cadmium and 1/2 unit of Vanadium (and the costs of logistics).
Given the current prices of Ferrofluid (45 K isk in Jita) this imply that Cadmium must be under 3000 isk/unit to be profitable. And around 1500 to give a decent profit. This would let to repay the POS (Medium Industrial POS around 350 M isk) in 3-4 months and after this give a decent profit (100 M isk / month).
The price of Cadmium on the market will not go ballistic, because this would negate the economic benefit of using it to produce Ferrofluid. But could make economically sense to extract it and sell it more, or extract it and react it immediatly to produce ferrofluid.
Given the limitations of the processes used, the moons with Cadmium used to produce ferrofluid will be in solar systems with a station (you need a station with a refinery to refine the raw Ferrofluid). The moons in solar systems without a station are better used to produce other materials that don't need to be refined before being reacted.
The net effects will be to have a bit more Ferrofluid and Dysporite available for production at lower prices (not much lower), so there will be a bit more request for other materials like Hyperflurite, Prometium, Hexite, Vanadium Hafnite, Solerium, Fluxed Condensate and Cesarium Cadmide. Probably the Fluxed Condensate will have the larger change in price as it depend from two very rare materials.
But, for "alchemy" to work out as intended, it need that the prices of fuels don't go grow. As a moon of Dysprosium is "substituted" with ten moons of Cadmium, this imply a large grow in the demand of ice and growing prices. Growing prices will, in change, reduce the profits from Cadmium moons much faster than the reduction of profit from the Dysprosium moon. The same amount of Ferrogel produced using Cadmium would be the 337,5% of the fuel used to produce Ferrogel using Dysprosium.
The consequences will be a growing demand of fuel at current or lower prices. So only the people able to mass mine the Ice Fields will be able to profit from Alchemy
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Tamarana
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Posted - 2008.11.12 23:45:00 -
[16]
I notice many people don't consider the logistic problems of refining the unrefined ferrofluid:
You need a station with a refinery. This limit the Cadmiun moons that can be used to produce ferrofluid to the moons in the same system of the station [with a refinery facility] and moon in adjacent systems. The other moons are better used to react the Cadmium as usual or to extract it and sell it to the market
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.13 00:09:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Tamarana
I notice many people don't consider the logistic problems of refining the unrefined ferrofluid:
You need a station with a refinery. This limit the Cadmiun moons that can be used to produce ferrofluid to the moons in the same system of the station [with a refinery facility] and moon in adjacent systems. The other moons are better used to react the Cadmium as usual or to extract it and sell it to the market
Never underestimate the stupid |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.13 00:13:00 -
[18]
Originally by: RC Denton
I think a flaw with this assumption is that the supply will not go up as well. I generally played in the low end of the moon min market with plat and chrome, but I imagine that cadmium and other moons which were considered marginal at best and so have not been mined to this point will open up and the supply will increase. We'll see another equillibrium point occur at some time in the near to med future but I doubt it will be a huge increase to current prices. Right now we're just seeing a speculative bubble, so sell cadmium if you have it ;).
As prices for mats skyrocket, inventors and builders will ebb out of the market faster than you can imagine. Because of this you'll see prices shoot up pretty quickly here.
Last time the carbonide side was up this high, Hulks were at a 98-100m spread. Now we have to deal with both pressure of Cad for alchemy (again never underestimate the stupid) and it being linked to Dyspro for price (which is also due for a price recovery as this Alchemy jazz wears off)
But like Akita said... don't bother listen to us. We never know anything and are always wrong. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.13 00:56:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Tamarana
I notice many people don't consider the logistic problems of refining the unrefined ferrofluid:
You need a station with a refinery. This limit the Cadmiun moons that can be used to produce ferrofluid to the moons in the same system of the station [with a refinery facility] and moon in adjacent systems. The other moons are better used to react the Cadmium as usual or to extract it and sell it to the market
So... what exactly makes you think you have to EXTRACT the Cadmium locally to react it to anything else ?
Since you'll be ferrying to and fro anyway to take advantage of the station high refine rate, what's the big deal in, uh, say, IMPORTING the Cadmium in the first place too ?
Heck, having it all on a worthless moon in a quiet worthless lowsec area is much better than extracting Cadmium in a world where Cadmium is suddendly a material worth mining almost as much as some lower r64.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:29:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tamarana
I notice many people don't consider the logistic problems of refining the unrefined ferrofluid:
You need a station with a refinery. This limit the Cadmiun moons that can be used to produce ferrofluid to the moons in the same system of the station [with a refinery facility] and moon in adjacent systems. The other moons are better used to react the Cadmium as usual or to extract it and sell it to the market
So... what exactly makes you think you have to EXTRACT the Cadmium locally to react it to anything else ?
Since you'll be ferrying to and fro anyway to take advantage of the station high refine rate, what's the big deal in, uh, say, IMPORTING the Cadmium in the first place too ?
Heck, having it all on a worthless moon in a quiet worthless lowsec area is much better than extracting Cadmium in a world where Cadmium is suddendly a material worth mining almost as much as some lower r64.
The only big deal with it is that it's less efficient than reacting it on the same moon you mine it, since you would need at least a small + med tower vs just a med. Obviously the same economics apply to moving it as buying it or selling it. But that was one reason why I used to react things in the same location they were mined a lot of the time, even though in a station system was more convenient. In 0.0 of course you may be able to piggyback a jump bridge that you need anyway to make your reacting more convenient. And of course there is always freighters and jump freighters.
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░▒▓ ORCAs Available Early and Cheap ▓▒░ |
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Shadowsword
COLSUP
Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:42:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Akita T
They'll probably only come in march 2009 or later, and it's basically a decoupling of the Sov. system from the POS system... they don't know yet exactly the details of the replacement(s), but that much is a given : you won't have to just keep a horde of POS up to get/have/keep Sov.
As someone who do quite a bit of logistics to keep POS running, I approve totally such a change...
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:50:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Lord Fitz
In 0.0 of course you may be able to piggyback a jump bridge that you need anyway to make your reacting more convenient. And of course there is always freighters and jump freighters.
Jumpbridge massive amounts of reactants into an outpost system with loads of moons and preferably also the proper ice type, set up a few reaction-only POSes on nigh-useless moons, tada
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Tamarana
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Posted - 2008.11.15 13:16:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Tamarana on 15/11/2008 13:25:32
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tamarana
I notice many people don't consider the logistic problems of refining the unrefined ferrofluid:
You need a station with a refinery. This limit the Cadmiun moons that can be used to produce ferrofluid to the moons in the same system of the station [with a refinery facility] and moon in adjacent systems. The other moons are better used to react the Cadmium as usual or to extract it and sell it to the market
So... what exactly makes you think you have to EXTRACT the Cadmium locally to react it to anything else ?
Since you'll be ferrying to and fro anyway to take advantage of the station high refine rate, what's the big deal in, uh, say, IMPORTING the Cadmium in the first place too ?
Heck, having it all on a worthless moon in a quiet worthless lowsec area is much better than extracting Cadmium in a world where Cadmium is suddendly a material worth mining almost as much as some lower r64.
You are probably right on this.
If it is profitable to extract Cadmium and sell it in the market AND the price is low enought to justify using Cadmium to substitute Dysprosium.
If it is so, I suppose this will happen.
I think about a moon of Vanadium in a system with an Outpost used to feed 20 POS reacting Vanadium and Cadmium. This will need 2.160.000 units of Cadmium every 30 days for the reactions to happen. This is something like 7 and half JF cargo (plus the fuel needed). Something around 3-4 millions m3 of stuff to import every 30 days.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.15 14:07:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Akita T on 15/11/2008 14:08:14
Originally by: Tamarana
I think about a moon of Vanadium in a system with an Outpost used to feed 20 POS reacting Vanadium and Cadmium.
Or a (generally lousy moons) lowsec system with a good base reprocessing station
That makes the trips much shorter, almost to the point of "just jump on the NPC station directly with the JF from a nearby hub".
More expensive in the fuel costs (so less profit) but also a lot less effort.
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Tamarana
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Posted - 2008.11.15 22:57:00 -
[25]
I agree with the idea, but unfortunatly, the HUBs are in high sec. So doing a 8-10 trips for moving the Cadmium and the fuels would be impossible. It would be a one-way trip the first time, from high to low sec. The JF can not go the other way.
I, also, would suggest to jump near the POS and not near the station, because a [Large] POS is much more deadly than the guns of a station. And, usually, people don't warp to someone else POS for opportunistic kills. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.18 17:16:00 -
[26]
First big downwards swing done, brace for second one soon in a couple of weeks and the final high equilibrium in a month and a half tops
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Re Mi
Caldari
Funshine Unlimited
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Posted - 2008.11.20 00:41:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Akita T
First big downwards swing done, brace for second one soon in a couple of weeks and the final high equilibrium in a month and a half tops
Haven't seen a full listing of the man hours it takes to run a setup, but it is unjustifiable for a game that purports to be about "pvp". No one will have time to play the game if they do this, they will be forced to tend the POS all the time. This "improvement" is really about inflicting pain and suffering on people who have to run logistics. This will burn ppl out. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.20 04:14:00 -
[28]
Worst case scenario with a bit of foresight, it's "offline and online 3 silos per reaction chain".
If you keep one chain per POS and all in the same system (or multiple chains per POS but enough POSes/chains so you only work on one offline/online cycle per tower), you can do them all sequentially then it's only a matter of how fast as you can warp from one POS to the station, dock, refine and swap materials, warp back to next POS.
You'll probably like a silo-size bonus POS so you don't have to do it all that often, I guess.
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Mika Meroko
Minmatar
Crayon Posting Inc
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Posted - 2008.11.20 04:19:00 -
[29]
is been a week...
seen any changes to the market yet? XD
Originally by: CCP Atropos
I pod people because there's money to be made in selling tears.
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Cheru'bael
Amarr
Ordo Ministorum
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Posted - 2008.11.20 05:09:00 -
[30]
it's settled down a bit. i'm certainly not touching unrefined. i see unrefined as a way for people stranded out in 0.0 to produce the rarest stuff without making a risky haul through chokepoints to empire.
*shrug* a crystallite alloy medium tower will make half the profit (net) over a large running crystalline carbonide. just like it was before. I certainly don't see the use for unrefined in low sec.
anyone got hard numbers yet on the process needed and the profit, per hour, gross? |
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