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Cheopis
Ardishapur Ammunition and More
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Posted - 2008.11.13 10:14:00 -
[1]
As pretty much everyone with a nose for trade knows, the mission runner crowd supplies a large chunk of minerals that are used for T1 construction.
The recent nerfing of missiles will have some effect on the market. I figure at least a few people here have Raven mission runner alts, or fly them with their main toons.
How drastic is the difference, in reality? how much more time is a typical mission taking you?
I'm trying to get a feel for how much the minerals market might move due to the Raven being nerfed.
I only got one agent mission in yesterday, and it was one that I rarely get, so I didn't have a yardstick to compare my 2x cruise Apoc fit against. I could definitely tell a difference in the performance of medium drones.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.13 10:59:00 -
[2]
All serious mission-runners will feel little difference, while only the newcomers will feel a big difference.
Bottom line, negligible effect.
You WILL see a spike in mineral prices, but that would be because of the Orca (soaking up a lot of raw materials) and the price hike in all Gallente T2 ships (which sadly also includes the Hulk).
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Snasty
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:09:00 -
[3]
My mission running experience is largly unchanged. Switched a bit of tank for a painter and all seems rather equal to be honest.
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Jmanis Catharg
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:36:00 -
[4]
 Originally by: Snasty
My mission running experience is largly unchanged. Switched a bit of tank for a painter and all seems rather equal to be honest.
This, except I've always packed a painter. So I actually had to do,, well, not much at all to my fit. In fact, I didn't even change mods since pre-patch.
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Originally by: CCP Mitnal
I went to the forums for special powers and all I got was a dancing padlock and a banhammer.
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Alex555
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:53:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Akita T
You WILL see a spike in mineral prices, but that would be because of the Orca (soaking up a lot of raw materials) and the price hike in all Gallente T2 ships (which sadly also includes the Hulk).
why is that?
i see the decrease in hulk's price
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Joss Sparq
Caldari
ANZAC ALLIANCE
Southern Cross Alliance
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:56:00 -
[6]
I was curious about the affect of the missile changes too. Is it just me, or are there more CNRs on Contracts than usual? I forgot to watch the movements prior to the patch.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:58:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Alex555
Originally by: Akita T
You WILL see a spike in mineral prices, but that would be because of the Orca (soaking up a lot of raw materials) and the price hike in all Gallente T2 ships (which sadly also includes the Hulk).
why is that?
Cadmium
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Midas Man
Caldari
Dzark Asylum
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Posted - 2008.11.13 11:59:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Alex555
Originally by: Akita T
You WILL see a spike in mineral prices, but that would be because of the Orca (soaking up a lot of raw materials) and the price hike in all Gallente T2 ships (which sadly also includes the Hulk).
why is that?
i see the decrease in hulk's price
Because people listen to Akita's predictions as they are usually correct, hence lots of people will now buy minerals in the hope of them increasing in value. This will alter demand causing an increase in value and if im not mistaken Akita will dump all her prepatch cheap stock of minerals to the speculators for a nice profit. but shhhhhh dont let anyone know
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Alex555
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Posted - 2008.11.13 12:22:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Alex555 on 13/11/2008 12:24:59
look at the buy and sell price difference for cadmium. it seems like we see a short term speculative increase.
plus in cas of hulks it is more important to look at the price of advanced materials which are used for porduction components. and i do not see any increase there also. there is a lsight increase in price for some but it is not significant for any rise in hulks' prices.
thus i think that it is not so dramatic. and prices will calm in the near future.
as for hulks, i would be very happy if the price increases by 10-15% but it is barely possible.
but i would listen to Akita's arguments. he sounds very reasonable!
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.13 12:23:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Akita T on 13/11/2008 12:26:14
Originally by: Midas Man
Because people listen never listen to Akita's predictions as even if they are usually correct, hence lots of people will now buy minerals not yet buy Cadmium-related thingies in the hope of them increasing decreasing in value soon.
This The shifts in game mechanics will alter demand causing an increase in value and if im not mistaken Akita will dump all her prepatch cheap stock of minerals Cadmium-related thingies to the speculators desperate late buyers for a nice profit. but shhhhhh dont let anyone know
Fixed your post 
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
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Alex555
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Posted - 2008.11.13 12:34:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Alex555 on 13/11/2008 12:35:37
Originally by: Akita T
Cadmium indeed is right now far above equilibrium. However some Cadmium-using products are still far below equilibrium.
Probably.
though i didnt calculate the true value of some advanced materials.
moreover there is always a little time gap between a price change of a resource and its affect on the final good's value.
still i doubt major increase in hulks' prices. mostly for the reason of increased supply. which is also very important to consider.
but as i said, i don't see so significant price increase for cadmium and i don't understand why it should affect hulks' prices so heavely.
a hulk doesnt consist of only cadmium-related materials.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.13 12:47:00 -
[12]
See edit above.
Also, you DO know that now 20-40 cadmium can replace 1 dysprosium for pretty much all intents and purposes ?
20 if you're a "ice I mine is free therefore worthless" type of guy, 40 if you're a "I react for profit only" no-nonsense bussinessman.
Also, dysprosium panic sells are very likely to stop, and dysprosium is very likely to climb back to its 100k per unit glory days... which means stupid people would actually pay up to 5k per unit of cadmium. Assuming dyspro only climbs to 80k, and assuming only smart people buy cadmium, that's still 2k per cadmium unit as a fair price - as opposed to the former 1k-ish pricetag.
Most likely Cadmium will stabilize at between 2k and 2.5k per unit (so a 100%-150% increase), and all Cadmium-related items will see that increase trickle down (less and less percentually with each additional reaction level due to fuel costs and due to the other ingredients not shifting price much, if at all).
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Ghoest
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Posted - 2008.11.13 14:13:00 -
[13]
Any high skills mission runner will run mission almost as fast still in a CNR. You jut have to bring along both light and medium drones.
Some people will shift over to Gallente boats.
I think there will be no effect on available minerals.
I dont think the market on CNRs and faction missile gear will get a bit cheaper.
If you think corp is different than a guild or clan you have some insecurity issues.
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Anane
Abaim Technologies
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Posted - 2008.11.13 15:15:00 -
[14]
heck if anything people will use just a few more missles/mission so people will then end up buying more missles so there will be a slightly bigger market
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Ghengis Tia
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Posted - 2008.11.13 16:42:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Ghoest
Any high skills mission runner will run mission almost as fast still in a CNR. You jut have to bring along both light and medium drones.
Some people will shift over to Gallente boats.
I think there will be no effect on available minerals.
I dont think the market on CNRs and faction missile gear will get a bit cheaper.
Agreed. Some Raven pilots might finally be pushed to get a CNR as DPS and tank are better. I personally found virtually no difference in flying Level IV's post-patch than before, other than med drones vs frigs.
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Midas Man
Caldari
Dzark Asylum
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Posted - 2008.11.13 16:46:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Midas Man
Because people listen never listen to Akita's predictions as even if they are usually correct, hence lots of people will now buy minerals not yet buy Cadmium-related thingies in the hope of them increasing decreasing in value soon.
This The shifts in game mechanics will alter demand causing an increase in value and if im not mistaken Akita will dump all her prepatch cheap stock of minerals Cadmium-related thingies to the speculators desperate late buyers for a nice profit. but shhhhhh dont let anyone know
Fixed your post
Nice Like what you did there
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Roemy Schneider
BINFORD
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Posted - 2008.11.13 18:57:00 -
[17]
"missle nerf"...? i was expecting better from my little MD forum... :o
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putting the gist back into logistics |
ShiroKishi
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Posted - 2008.11.14 00:03:00 -
[18]
I for one had good missile skills and I made no changes to my CNR.
I actually run missions significantly faster. I have 7 caldari navy cruise launchers and post-patch, the ships that use to take 12-13 volleys are now going down in 9-10.
The frigates obviously im no longer hitting but I let my light drones do that as I have always packed 5 medium drones and 5 light drones with my CNR. Light drones are great against spider drones.
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Algorithm 5
Caldari
Hakata Group
Blade.
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Posted - 2008.11.14 06:02:00 -
[19]
I would consider 100k to be HIGHLY ambitious.
The Cadmium-->Dyspro reaction is hugely price-sensitive.
With Cadmium priced at 2500 (which is the price at which it's worth dropping a pos on every single Cadmium moon in the entire galaxy) the dyspro reaction is loss-making with Dyspro prices at 60k, but quite profitable at 80k.
Moreover, compared to a small POS sucking straight Cadmium, dropping the medium reactor on a Cadmium moon in 0.0 acts as a form of moon mineral compression. The silos fill up FAR slower, making silo bonuses irrelevant and letting operators switch to the POS with the cheapest isotopes (I'd probably use Caldari for the extra CPU). It also greatly reduces the volume of goods to ship out of 0.0, improving the lives of capital transport pilots everywhere.
Since Cadmium is also racially variable at about a 4:1 ratio, you can find a lot of them in a small area in Serpentis Space. So operators will likely be jumping or 5 or 10 of them at a time, as they have relatively low real world time overheads to maintain. One run around them once every 2-3 weeks is all you need.
At current isotope prices, my models suggest a Dyspro price of somewhere in the region of 70k-80k, with Cadmium holding at around 2000-3000 as you suggest.
This is unless, of course, we hit galactic capacity limits for Cadmium and they become scarce. Unfortunately, the inflow-outflow models I have don't currently do equilibrium calculations properly, so they can't deal with Cadmium supply flowing in relative terms down both reaction paths.
However, I do note that the galactic distribution of Cadmium is only 8 times higher than that of Dysprosium. So if we assume that all Dyspro moons are fully occupied, even by consuming all Cadmium moons, we can't to more than add 50% extra Dyspro equivalents. And that's before taking into account that Cadmium has other uses.
Given any significant increase (say, 50% by inputs) in the purchase and destruction of T2 ships, we should see the exhaustion of all galactic Cadmium moons, and matching increases in price of both Cadmium and Dyspro.
This won't make Cadmium insanely profitable, prices would rise to only 4k'ish... but it would be interesting.
Originally by: Akita T
See edit above.
Also, you DO know that now 20-40 cadmium can replace 1 dysprosium for pretty much all intents and purposes ?
20 if you're a "ice I mine is free therefore worthless" type of guy, 40 if you're a "I react for profit only" no-nonsense bussinessman.
Also, dysprosium panic sells are very likely to stop, and dysprosium is very likely to climb back to its 100k per unit glory days... which means stupid people would actually pay up to 5k per unit of cadmium. Assuming dyspro only climbs to 80k, and assuming only smart people buy cadmium, that's still 2k per cadmium unit as a fair price - as opposed to the former 1k-ish pricetag.
Most likely Cadmium will stabilize at between 2k and 2.5k per unit (so a 100%-150% increase), and all Cadmium-related items will see that increase trickle down (less and less percentually with each additional reaction level due to fuel costs and due to the other ingredients not shifting price much, if at all).
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Alex555
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Posted - 2008.11.14 08:08:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Akita T
So, yeah, Hulks WILL eventually get more expensive, for sure.
again i dont see any reason for that.
yeah, there is an increase in price of crystalline carbonide. but the weight of this advanced material in overal construction of a hulk is not so significant.
it may increase by alot but the total price change of a hulk will be miserable.
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Diziet Montoya
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Posted - 2008.11.14 09:58:00 -
[21]
Price of faction missiles might drop, coz the t2 ones do more damage now :p
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.11.14 11:16:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Akita T on 14/11/2008 11:23:14
Originally by: Alex555
yeah, there is an increase in price of crystalline carbonide. but the weight of this advanced material in overal construction of a hulk is not so significant.
Myeah, you're kind of right, there's only around 20k-30k (depending on component ME build and decryptor used in invention) Crystalline Carbonide in a Hulk, so even with the highest historic CC price it would mean at most roughly 3% increase in Hulk build costs (less than 2 mil ISK).
P.S. From CC alone, that is. Because an increase in dyspro from 65k-ish now to a projected 80k-90k-ish soon again WOULD mean an additional 15%-25% increase in Hulk prices on top of the measly CC increase.
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Shadowsword
COLSUP
Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2008.11.14 13:35:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Akita T
All serious mission-runners will feel little difference, while only the newcomers will feel a big difference.
Bottom line, negligible effect.
You WILL see a spike in mineral prices, but that would be because of the Orca (soaking up a lot of raw materials) and the price hike in all Gallente T2 ships (which sadly also includes the Hulk).
And the need to replace all those cap ships lost in the last few weeks...
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.14 13:45:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. From CC alone, that is. Because an increase in dyspro from 65k-ish now to a projected 80k-90k-ish soon again WOULD mean an additional 15%-25% increase in Hulk prices on top of the measly CC increase.
Exactly.
Linking Cad to Dyspro is going to have some very disproportionate affects in every build using the Gallente T2 chain.
I pity those who were going for a Gal Jump Freight |
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