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Cheopis
One Stop Mining Shop
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Posted - 2008.11.30 05:35:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Cheopis on 30/11/2008 05:36:09
Edited by: Cheopis on 30/11/2008 05:35:38
What would be the impact of a cabal of recyler/traders actually offering 70-75% of mineral values on every refinable item in game, in all highsec regions?
I recently put out a Citadel-region-wide three day open buy on every S/M/L ammo type and all player makable missiles torp or smaller. I also ran several 1 day open buys for roughly 300 other assorted T1 loot drops during the duration of this open buy period.
All in all I picked up about 700 mill worth of minerals at 70% of conservative mineral values, and another 400 mill worth of the same stuff at prices ranging from 10% to 98% of mineral value, while I was setting up my buy orders.
I'm still collecting stuff from 300 or so stations in The Citadel ATM 
Has anyone out there tried to run a large scale "fair price" recycling market where players selling mission loot get roughly what the mineral values would be for poor recycling skilled toons?
Is anyone interested in trying some sort of coordinated experiment to see what happens if we do such a thing in several high volume regions at once?
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Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2008.11.30 05:41:00 -
[2]
There's going to be no change. Why? People who dumps S/M/L ammo are usually those doing mission running and are picking up loots. They're not going to care about how much mineral they can squeeze of the recycle compared to how much isk they can get out of resales. All they care about is getting the isk in the fastest way and it can be found by doing right click and click on sell.
To get the best recycle, you need to get good refining skills along with standings and industrial skill is what mission runners don't have.
10% for Returning Customers |
Waseem
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Posted - 2008.11.30 05:42:00 -
[3]
Once you have collected all your loot, refined it, and sold it. Let us know how long it took you.
That is one of the main reasons I have not looked at doing such large sweeping recycling. The sheer amount of time needed to collect the loot for the return is not that great.
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari
XERCORE
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Posted - 2008.11.30 05:43:00 -
[4]
 Originally by: Cheopis
I'm still collecting stuff from 300 or so stations in The Citadel ATM
That's the reason it will never work. Well, unless they drastically improve the courier system. Even then, I think you'd loose too much time (think of it as paying interest at about 3% monthly) and money shipping it around.
The time necessary to determine the proper collateral and then setup the contract is simply too high for a region wide order. If the collateral is too low someone will just steal the stuff, if it's too high people will think it's a trap or just not bother. Either way it's a royal pain to do it for 600 stations every month. The way around it is to buy the stuff at a low enough percentage that you can simply ignore any volume below a certain threshold. I personally think 75% is simply too high to deal with the logistical hassle.
That said, prove me wrong and you could make a small fortune doing it.
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cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2008.11.30 05:59:00 -
[5]
you also have to remember there are people who sit at the large mission hubs, check the mineral prices every day, plug it into their spreadsheets and calculate the buy price they need to refine the modules at.
Then every item sold beneath this price is bought off the market at even a few percent under market. Also large purchase orders are placed that will net a nice profit.
There are many players with perfect refine, corp and faction standing who will scoop up 500m-1B worth of modules every day at large mission hubs for reprocessing.
Your region wide buy order do pick up some material but most of the volume has been aggressively bought up.
I still love buying frigates under reprocessing value because newb industrialists don't do their calculations.
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Cheopis
One Stop Mining Shop
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Posted - 2008.11.30 06:02:00 -
[6]
Well, this was actually the second iteration. The first test was a 5-system radius around Motsu. I went from 350 mill to 900 mill isks in roughly a week with that test.
I'm still collecting from the full-region test, so no results to report from that yet.
Here is the structure arrangement I have been considering.
Buy at 70-75% of base refines across an entire region, continuously. Set contracts occasionally to pull in large volumes of bought items from hubs. The contracts can be assigned by using a % of EVE-based refine values. Yes this is inaccurate, but it should be accurate enough for large volumes of mixed modules and ammo.
Every now and then when outlying areas or lowsec areas get significant amounts of stuff, set contracts to move those items to mission hubs. Once the items are at mission hubs, they will be part of the next collection from said hub.
The logistics are a nightmare at the level that I am working at, but as scale increases, logistics should actually simplify, as the smaller amounts scattered here and there become less and less of a concern for profitability.
I'll keep you all updated as the experiment unfolds 
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Cheopis
One Stop Mining Shop
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Posted - 2008.11.30 06:07:00 -
[7]
Originally by: cosmoray
you also have to remember there are people who sit at the large mission hubs, check the mineral prices every day, plug it into their spreadsheets and calculate the buy price they need to refine the modules at.
Then every item sold beneath this price is bought off the market at even a few percent under market. Also large purchase orders are placed that will net a nice profit.
There are many players with perfect refine, corp and faction standing who will scoop up 500m-1B worth of modules every day at large mission hubs for reprocessing.
Your region wide buy order do pick up some material but most of the volume has been aggressively bought up.
Who, me? I wouldn't do such a thing 
*hides his EVE-Meep*
I do this as well, the two methods tend to work well together from what I've seen so far.
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Waseem
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Posted - 2008.11.30 06:09:00 -
[8]
The question is with the "let things sit" approach, how deep are your pockets and how long can you wait for the return before it is negated by something else you could have done with the isk?
I am pretty sure modules sitting idle is almost as bad as ISK sitting idle in this situation.
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Cheopis
One Stop Mining Shop
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Posted - 2008.11.30 06:20:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Waseem
The question is with the "let things sit" approach, how deep are your pockets and how long can you wait for the return before it is negated by something else you could have done with the isk?
I am pretty sure modules sitting idle is almost as bad as ISK sitting idle in this situation.
Correct. That's where I believe scale will come in. 5000k isk in mineral value is not a lot, but it is enough that I don't want it to sit around doing nothing if I can help it right now. As the scale of operation increases, that 5000k isks will be less and less important and can be deferred with less impact on overall profitability.
Ideally, after a certain point, I will be running 300+ open orders continuously, and simply checking prices and setting courier jobs to move stuff incrementally into a processing hub, where I either build with the minerals, or sell them.
The bigger this gets, the less precisely it has to operate to make a good return. At least thats what I'm hoping anyhow :)
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Treelox
Amarr
Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.11.30 07:56:00 -
[10]
I have done similar things in the past, although never on a region wide basis. To many dead spots get thrown in then.
I find it much better to use a bunch of system specific targeted orders to caputre all the busier places. It takes more time to set up, but with a bit of paitence and some time with your ombey map you can figure out how to capture the most of the wheat with a minimal amount of chaff.
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Trading Bunnz
Equatorial Industires
Dark Taboo
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Posted - 2008.11.30 12:22:00 -
[11]
My first big chunk of ISK was made running a region-wide reprocessing operation and it was good training for logistics and how to link it all together. I also convinced me that I never want to drive freighters around.  Scale was running at well over 5b/week. But at the time there was absolutely no need to pay 75%. Volume change between a "fair" 80% (which I ran in a trial) and running at 51% average (just to avoid the warning boxes) was insignificant.
There are still a few people who make a huge chunk of isk from this kind of operation but personally, I'm a bit like the others, the logistics are just not worth the gain, time is better (and more profitably) spent elsewhere. Or rather, passive income streams have matured to the point where I can just spend my time shooting stuffs, rather than acumulating moar isks.
FRPB Shares in Default |
Algorithm 5
Caldari
Hakata Group
Blade.
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Posted - 2008.11.30 20:39:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Waseem
The question is with the "let things sit" approach, how deep are your pockets and how long can you wait for the return before it is negated by something else you could have done with the isk?
I am pretty sure modules sitting idle is almost as bad as ISK sitting idle in this situation.
I just completed a one year operation to do this in a strategic set of low sec system. Planted huge buy orders at 50% of refine value, refreshed every 2-3 months. Collected it all up with several jump freighter runs.
Total profit: 10b isk
Granted it's not amazing per-day money, but it WAS very low maintenance...
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Cheopis
One Stop Mining Shop
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Posted - 2008.12.04 10:35:00 -
[13]
Update on progress.
After a three-day open order set on all S/M/L ammo and roughly 100 1-day open orders on slower moving items once per day for those same three days, I then spent three days collecting and refining, then sold on the next day.
First 5 days 350-900 mill isk on roughly 200 open orders
Next 7 days 900-1,500 mill isk on roughly 250 open orders per day
Roughly the same amount of money was made each time.
After consideration I believe I know now why that is. A substantial amount of my initial profit was earned from my direct buying of refinables that were priced below 70% of mineral value, both while I was setting up initial orders, and after open orders closed and escrow was back in my pocket.
In the initial series, I was finding some rather large quantities of unpopular modules at, quite frankly, rediculous pricing. In the second series, I did not find nearly so many. I pulled the cream of the crop on the first pass, so the % growth in the first pass was almost certainly an outlier. This matches my earlier recycling experiences in Domain, but I did not consider the combination of both methods would have so much of an effect on the numbers as it did, looking back in hindsight.
I have set longer term buys at this point, and will no longer be giving nearly so much information to the public, as I work out how to maximize profit and minimize time spent, without giving all my isks to the couriers and freighter pilots of EVE
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Cheopis
One Stop Mining Shop
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Posted - 2008.12.04 10:47:00 -
[14]
Once I figure out how to organize this beast and make money doing it without driving myself into the ground, I suppose I'll actually start trying to determine what effect it has on others, rather than being happy about what it's doing for my wallet
That is, after all, the reason why I created this thread in the first place, before I buried myself in it.
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Cheopis
One Stop Mining Shop
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Posted - 2008.12.04 10:50:00 -
[15]
My numbers are not quite adding up, going have to take a look again and verify my numbers when I get home.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.12.04 13:23:00 -
[16]
Originally by: cosmoray
you also have to remember there are people who sit at the large mission hubs, check the mineral prices every day, plug it into their spreadsheets and calculate the buy price they need to refine the modules at.
Then every item sold beneath this price is bought off the market at even a few percent under market. Also large purchase orders are placed that will net a nice profit.
How the hell else am I supposed to get all the minerals needed for a decent capital program?
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Raaz Satik
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Posted - 2008.12.04 14:15:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Waseem
I am pretty sure modules sitting idle is almost as bad as ISK sitting idle in this situation.
Actually it's arguably worse, since not only is your money dead for that time, but its also at risk.
Since price volatility scales proportionality with the square root of time, if you pick up items only once per month, your price risk is approximately 5.5 times as much as if you picked them up every day. |
Vincea Vega
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Posted - 2008.12.04 19:44:00 -
[18]
In the long run volatility does not matter as mineral prices are cyclic and your risk works both ways... up and down averaging it out.
Next to that refining also gives a nice mix of minerals and as the insurance programme dictates there is a basket price for minerals, giving you quite a nice portfolio.
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Mara Rinn
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.12.05 02:44:00 -
[19]
In my own little experiments, I found that the buy orders for the items I started buying very quickly rose to 95% of the mineral value of the components being bought.
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Vikarion
Caldari
White Rose Society
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Posted - 2008.12.08 08:58:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Mara Rinn
In my own little experiments, I found that the buy orders for the items I started buying very quickly rose to 95% of the mineral value of the components being bought.
I compensate for this via a technique I call price cycling:
Typically, a lot of the traders/mission-runners/whatnot out there give every impression of being sheep, clustering their orders around guns, armor, etc. But once they see you go after an "unpopular" module, they tend to jump on the band-wagon.
So I keep a list of items to rotate through, giving a week or two to each item (less or more as events warrant). Usually I can end up buying a huge volume of these goods at fantastically profitable margins, before everyone gets in and ruins it. Then I move on to my next set of items, since I'm not really into competing for the few scraps left after my looting of the market. 
Give it a couple months, and my theory is that it will die down again. Of course, I've recently had the luxury of discovering a truly wonderful commodity that doesn't seem to suffer from this, so we'll see how that goes.
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