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Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.14 20:50:00 - [1] I'll confess, this is a shameless "help me manipulate GTCs waaay up" thread. But I'm going to try something different -- lay out my current reasoning for why I think PLEX prices are headed to the moon and beyond and see if the natural effect happens. 1. The higher the price the fewer need to be sold. The exact opposite of natural supply and demand driving forces apply here. With the removal of casual sellers you are left with people needing to meet ISK targets. The less they sell, the higher the price. The higher the price, the less they need to sell. 2. Grinding is reaching a fever pitch. The volume of mission produced goods keeps rising and their prices falling. You can see this in the pricing of meta4 goods very clearly. Check the graph of Arbalest Cruise prices over the last year and correlate it with the rise of GTC prices. The higher the GTCs go, the more the grindey set cranks out the mission loot -- and ISK. 2.5 In a related vein, the "minerals I mine are free lol" guys seem to be working overtime as well. We're setting all-time simultaneous login records although CCP is still claiming 250,000 subscribers. 3. PLEXes are somewhat nerfproof. The value of one will never go to zero because unlike all other in-game items they have a use out of game. Therefore the risk of holding PLEXes in game is significantly smaller than any other in-game item. It's reasonable to expect at least pre-30 day pre-ghost training nerf minimums for 30 day pricing. 3.5 As fewer 60 day cards get bought CCP will once again be under pressure to increase sales. They have done this by increasing demand for game time. There are several opportunities remaining for increasing GTC demand, including nerfing ghost R&D, production and BPO related research. The benefits of fewer new GTC funded alts should be apparent to anyone with their alt army already recruited. Puting a squeeze on ISK farmers gives nice warm fuzzies. So, why haven't you set a buy order on a PLEX yet?
Ambo State Protectorate	Posted - 2009.01.14 21:51:00 - [2] Just a little inaccuracy there - arbalest cruises are down because of the missile changes some time ago. Check arbalest heavy missile launchers for example (which were virtually unaffected) and you'll see a very different graph. -------------------------------------- Trader? Investor? Just want to track your finances? Check out EMMA
Leveraged Equity	Posted - 2009.01.14 21:52:00 - [3] 1. as price rises so will the supply, driving the price down again. 2. Arbalest cruise launchers crashed because they nerfed cruise missiles not because people are grinding out more than ever. the rest,
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.01.14 22:13:00 - [4] Originally by: Clair Bear 1. The higher the price the fewer need to be sold. The exact opposite of natural supply and demand driving forces apply here. With the removal of casual sellers you are left with people needing to meet ISK targets. The less they sell, the higher the price. The higher the price, the less they need to sell. Not necessarily. I would argue that only a portion of the people that sell GTCs care all that much about ISK-$ exchange rates, and just want to have some ISK to indulge their sweet PvP tooth. They usually go for a "I'll spend on average 10$ a month on gear lost" attitude, selling a GTC every 2-3 months and spending all ISK they can. With more ISK available for the same amount of RL cash, the enjoyment rises, and some more people might find this becoming an acceptable practice, so in fact, the higher the GTC prices go, the more GTCs are sold, just as you'd expect from a normal supply/demand driven resource. But other than that, I can't disagree - the GTC price is slowly going up, with PLEX prices going up even more rapidly. My only question is : GTC sellers, WTF ARE YOU DOING NOT CONVERTING YOUR GTCs TO PLEXes ALREADY ?!? _ Create a character \|\| Fit a ship \|\| Get some ISK
Sphynx Stormlord Gallente Federal Defence Union	Posted - 2009.01.14 23:36:00 - [5] What seems deeply ironic, is that GTC's are better than Plex's, while being worth less. GTC's are better because they can re-activate accounts.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.14 23:46:00 - [6] Akita, the casual gamers you have in your model are gone as of the $15 30 day timecard. I don't know anyone capable of planning and sticking to a budget that needs to sell GTCs to play eve. As far as arbies: o'rly? Look again. The downward price over six months is a trend, not a sharp drop as is seen in a typical post nerf item. Trit bars didn't slowly deflate over six months, they got a 30% haircut at the mere whisper of a coming nerf. Other items show the same graph, albeit not as clearly because their price vs mineral price doesn't have as great of a delta. Look at tachyon anode particle streams -- an item that was BUFFED through amarr changes. Same thing. Throw out the outlyers and manipulation results and you'll see a a six month trend down with slowly increasing volume. Everyone can do their own analysis and draw their own conclusions. I predicted 500M 30 day prices when I took my break last October. I was off a bit on either magnitude or timeframe but not direction. Unless there are some radical, unprecedented changes causing an influx of sellers prices are only going up. As GTC prices go up farmers grind ever harder. They have to, this is their living. This is an inflationary spiral which isn't showing any sign of stopping. The true winter expansion is coming in March. Ambulation is coming. Sexy new graphics, marketing campaigns etc are coming. You know old farts with lots of ISK and bored of the game are going to come back, and they'll probably not be spending money. The current 0.0 war is going to get boring for one side or the other. Which means more lapsed accounts and fewer sellers financing their cap ships with GTC. All that's needed is one good panic and people will start stocking up on GTCs to last them through the lean months. 400M for 30 days will seem like nothing after that.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.15 00:00:00 - [7] Just pulled up arbalest heavies in Jita. Their down trend starts as of the ghost training nerf as opposed to 30 day nerf. The area under the volume curve isn't quite as clear but but does appear to be increasing. Contrast that with the PLEX graph over 30 days. The volume there is ever increasing, confirming the upward price trend. It's a steady 8% increase a month with no sign of new sellers on the scene. Trade them or not, but at least look at PLEXes in Jita. As far as why people don't simply turn 60 days into PLEXes and sell to sell orders in Jita -- not everyone has an alt with good trade skills so a 1.6% tax would put them right at what they're going for on the forums.
Carebear Trader Caldari Science and Trade Institute	Posted - 2009.01.15 01:07:00 - [8] So, are most mission runners/farmers using torps instead of cruise missiles on their raven/navy ravens/golems now?????
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2009.01.15 01:10:00 - [9] Edited by: Tasko Pal on 15/01/2009 01:11:05 Here's how I see it. 1. At a glance on the Forge market, I see volume of PLEXes rising substantially as the price rises. Assuming that PLEX creation is crudely proportional to PLEX trading volume, this probably indicates that PLEX's have considerable elasticity in supply. 2. There are a lot of rich people in Eve who can afford billion isk PLEX. I myself break even somewhere above 500 mil isk per PLEX on two poorly utilized accounts. If I had triple the assets that I do, I could afford billion isk PLEXes and still maintain positive asset growth. 3. Isk sources haven't changed substantially. Primary source remains grinding via missioning and ratting, and it still kicks out the same amounts per hour. Similarly, all profitable grind activities seem more or less the same in profit. But higher PLEX costs mean more grind, if you wish to do it that way. For example, if you can grind 20 mil per account per player hour, then it takes 18 hours of grind at a price of 360 mil per PLEX, 50 hours of grind at a billion isk per PLEX. That seems to provide a medium term cap on how high the PLEX can go. 4. In terms of low effort profitable activity, the PLEX isn't ahead of 3 alt datacore farming plus full slots manufacture. That means that someone can put arbitrary levels of buying pressure (with considerable lag) on PLEXes using these two activities on all three alts of an account. 5. Don't know long term effects. It is possible that the PLEX market will saturate either in supply or demand. A sharp drop in supply could create a big price increase especially if the number of high income characters continues to grow. OTOH, if demand weakens, then the market will top out. I see a lot of potential for PLEX price increases, but there's got to be a lot of long term effects unaccounted for.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.15 05:24:00 - [10] Sure, there are plenty of factors we have no way of accounting for. But consider this -- as the price of GTC goes up the profit margin on industrial alts in your R&D+manufacturing model shrink. To get the same level of income MORE accounts are needed. Yet more pressure to the upside. Another piece to the puzzle. Look at the number of Research Project Management skillbooks traded in the major trade regions. By my estimate 60 new datacore alts are created each and every day. If CCP ever nerfs "ghost datacore farming" we'll be looking at eyepopping demand as people try to get return on that ~2B/3 alt investment. My point is. As a speculative play PLEXes are likely to continue bubbling up. There are plenty of in-game reasons for them to continue appreciating in price and I have yet to see anyone come up with a plausible reason for the inflation spiral to reverse. 500M for a PLEX by March 10th!
ForgeTrader	Posted - 2009.01.15 06:12:00 - [11] I think that 500mil per plex is quite possible. I kind of disagree on your idea of what are the driving forces though. I think these the upwards price pressure is from people paying for their main account rather than for farming accounts. What I see is there are a whole set of new players that are becoming rich that started about one year ago. It takes about one year in the game before your skills start rounding out and you start getting good reliable income sources. The new PLEXes are the main cause of the price increase as it allows for window shopping. Whereas GTCs on forums required that a player to consciously decide to buy a GTC, the PLEXes encourage impulse buying. Just talk to the newer players, and you'll hear them talking about buying a plex for their main character so they don't need to pay for one month. That is the main reason PLEXes are increasing in price and GTCs are being dragged up behind. For people playing ISK it's much easier to get plexes. On the flip side the people playing the real dollars for GTCs/Plexes need to buy 60 days of game time at a time. The bigger chunk of real life cash makes it harder for them to buy. I get the feeling that you've got your accounts subbed for a year, and want to see other people's ISK making alts driven out. Then according to that theory the prices will have a nice dip after all the ISK making alts are driven out. However, my impression of the situation is that GTCs won't fall until this game becomes unpopular. I firmly believe it is now people's main characters that are soaking up the plexes at high prices, and they're sometimes willing to pay more than what they can make in a month because on the months they can't get a plex they just subscribe their account as per normal. The consumers forcing the price up aren't going to be driven out by calculated values for datacore research ISK turnovers or manufacturing slot ISK turnover.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2009.01.15 06:47:00 - [12] Originally by: ForgeTrader I get the feeling that you've got your accounts subbed for a year, and want to see other people's ISK making unsubscribed alts driven out. Originally by: Clair Bear If CCP ever nerfs "ghost datacore farming" we'll be looking at eyepopping demand as people try to get return on that ~2B/3 alt investment. I'm not going to even attempt to speak for Clair but I know that my motivation is that I don't think it is fair game mechanics for people to ghost 30 - 40 toons for datacores. I've never hibernated my accounts and yet Eve is one of the few games on the internet where there is a significant portion of the game (isk generation) that does not require "pay 2 play". I pay 2 play. New players pay 2 play. Everyone should. My old mercenary(PVP) corp is recruiting again. Would you believe I'm giving them my signature block for free?
Wadaya Caldari Trailerpark Industries	Posted - 2009.01.15 07:18:00 - [13] I think you guys are leaving out that 25% of the current plex prices, and therefor GTC prices, are a direct result ofresellers. Right now plexes are easy profit, buy them region wide, especially in the Citadel or any other region where there are mass level 4 mission runners, jack up the price by 50+ mil, and wait for fhruihfri and ughdhwiw to buy them up lickity split. I do agree with nerfing the the ghost rp training. It should have been taken out at the same time ghost sp was done.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.15 07:25:00 - [14] Originally by: ForgeTrader What I see is there are a whole set of new players that are becoming rich that started about one year ago. It takes about one year in the game before your skills start rounding out and you start getting good reliable income sources. Depends on what those players do for a living. There are some 4 year old players living on shoestring budgets. I could pull in 20M+ an hour on a trial. Quote: The new PLEXes are the main cause of the price increase as it allows for window shopping. Whereas GTCs on forums required that a player to consciously decide to buy a GTC, the PLEXes encourage impulse buying. The same window shopping argument could be made for selling. And what PLEXes do is allow traders to use ISK to tie up game time which would otherwise be immediately applied to an account. We can affect supply. Which, given a constant or rising demand combined with greater earning potential of aging characters leads to only one possible conclusion re: PLEX price. Quote: I get the feeling that you've got your accounts subbed for a year, and want to see other people's ISK making alts driven out. Then according to that theory the prices will have a nice dip after all the ISK making alts are driven out. Since accounts are not destroyed a dip in ISK prices will instantly cause a tsunami of returning alts. Altism in eve is out of hand. Even my own altism. I want it to become impractical for everyone to have 3-4 alt accounts funded by GTCs. And yeah, the armies of alts earning "free" ISK unsubbed grates a bit on my sensibilities and sense of fairness. Not to mention I think there should be a bigger gulf between older and newer players. And, above all, I see a clear profit opportunity here. Not as clear and profitable as the ferrogel spike but clear and profitable nonetheless. Quote: The consumers forcing the price up aren't going to be driven out by calculated values for datacore research ISK turnovers or manufacturing slot ISK turnover. Not quite. If it is profitable to run an alt then I will run an alt. And if it's profitable to run one, then it's profitable to run 10000. Demand from "normal" players doesn't enter into this. The only factor to consider is supply. I don't believe it's as elastic as others do. Demand is elastic. Supply not so much.
ForgeTrader	Posted - 2009.01.15 08:38:00 - [15] Originally by: Clair Bear Depends on what those players do for a living. There are some 4 year old players living on shoestring budgets. I could pull in 20M+ an hour on a trial. Smart people can do better than 30mil+ on a trial, but we're talking about swings that are being affected by a larger population group. The average players struggles to make 20mil a hour even after 10 months since they started playing. From my observation it's around 1 year that the average player has his/her income really take off. That's when I notice them starting to splurge money. Quote: The same window shopping argument could be made for selling. I don't see how any of the changes have made selling any easier. Quote: Since accounts are not destroyed a dip in ISK prices will instantly cause a tsunami of returning alts. Players that subscribe their accounts for months or years in advance would just sub up for another year or two when there's a price dip. That alone is enough to soak up a price dip. I doubt there's anyone around now that pays for an account only with GTCs that doesn't buy at least 6 months in advance. Quote: Altism in eve is out of hand. Even my own altism. I want it to become impractical for everyone to have 3-4 alt accounts funded by GTCs. And yeah, the armies of alts earning "free" ISK unsubbed grates a bit on my sensibilities and sense of fairness. Not to mention I think there should be a bigger gulf between older and newer players. Agree that there's too much pressure on alts in eve, but that's the way CCP has been pushing to get more subscribers. I ended up with about 6 alt accounts, and honestly it makes the game less fun having lots of alts. From someone who isn't solely focused on making ISK. Not all the alt accounts out there are for ISK generation. For me getting so many alts seemed necessary to catch up with all the skill training older players had. Getting the alts weren't about isk making, but rather so I could try out different parts of the game or to needed the extra characters to be more effective at PvP. You don't need heaps of accounts to make ISK. I think I made about 45bil on my first two characters (characters now 10 months old and 8 months old). With the oldest character with most of his skill points in flying a falcon rather than carebear skills. The 4 characters that came after only ever soaked up ISK. I disagree on the bigger gulf between older and newer players. There's already a huge gulf in Eve between old players and new players. I think one of the problems that may eventually kill the game is the gulf getting too big and the retention of new players dropping off when they realise they'll never get to a decent point in eve for years. My main was in Eve University before I quit Eve. I watched and talked to many people quitting because of that large gulf. Also the University has had some of the lowest numbers for a long time. There are probably other factors, but I think the fact that there's not that many new players staying past their trial period recently plays a big part. I think most of the growth on CCP's books last year has been due to players signing up more alt accounts, rather than an actual growth in real players. All my friends in real life that tried Eve state that the older/newer player gap was the reason why they never stayed longer than a month. Quote: ...I see a clear profit opportunity here. Not as clear and profitable as the ferrogel spike ...... .... Demand from "normal" players doesn't enter into this. The only factor to consider is supply.... I guess this being the market forum I shouldn't be surprised about the heavy market manipulation push. Yeah agreed on the supply is not very elastic, while demand is very elastic. I still think normal players are now soaking up more supply.
Chaos Dreams	Posted - 2009.01.15 12:05:00 - [16] I have to disagree that there should be a large gulf between new and old players as well. Speaking as a new player that gulf is staggering, and facing it is very discouraging. I've seen several people, both people I know from real life and people I've met in-game, who quit once their trial was up or after their first month because they felt they could never catch up and be competitive. Trying to artificially increase the gap between the "haves" and "have nots" would only make that situation worse. I haven't much experience in Eve, and this game's individual idiosyncrasies, but my impression is that over-inflating the price of PLEX's is ultimately self-defeating. While I'm sure it will make you some nice profit in the short-term, I think in the longterm it will prove less than beneficial. There seems to be a population out there that relies on PLEX's and GTC's to play. If the prices are driven beyond their reach, or to a point where they can no longer reach them and still have fun, then Eve is going to lose those players. As other people see their friends, corpmates, and/or favorite enemies leave the game they too will slowly depart. With fewer and fewer other players for social interaction and competition the game will become less fun and more and more people will leave, the effect just snowballing until we have a dead game with only a small, bitter core of obsessed players who won't let go and no more new blood. Not only that, but every player driven away is one less potential customer. Not only for your PLEX sales, but also for any other businesses you may have in game.
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2009.01.15 13:01:00 - [17] I really don't see a "large gulf" between old and new players. Get in with a group of experienced players and specialize in something useful. That works. I didn't try very hard to specialize, yet I still managed to pick up some decent missioning, hauling, and manufacture skills.
NupetietVer Neuro Cartographic Services	Posted - 2009.01.15 17:10:00 - [18] GTC's will top over a Billion because CCP will charge above 40 bucks for a 60 day subscription. My cousins called me crazy for paying 35 bucks for one because they payed 30 bucks for a WoW account. Industry standards, pfff
nether void Caldari Shrapnel Industries	Posted - 2009.01.15 18:23:00 - [19] As a semi-related topic, I really think CCP should make all new characters start with learning skills done. I think that alone would help retain new players. Or maybe just the first character on a new account at least. From most of the people I've heard of that started and then quit, they quit because they feel like they aren't doing anything for the first month or two while they train learning skills. "Training to train faster is boring." Makes sense. --------------------
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2009.01.15 18:59:00 - [20] Originally by: NupetietVer GTC's will top over a Billion because CCP will charge above 40 bucks for a 60 day subscription. My cousins called me crazy for paying 35 bucks for one because they payed 30 bucks for a WoW account. Industry standards, pfff If you don't like the cost, don't pay the price. There's no "industry standards" when it comes to subscription pricing. Originally by: nether void As a semi-related topic, I really think CCP should make all new characters start with learning skills done. I think that alone would help retain new players. Or maybe just the first character on a new account at least. From most of the people I've heard of that started and then quit, they quit because they feel like they aren't doing anything for the first month or two while they train learning skills. "Training to train faster is boring." Makes sense. Yes, I agree with this sentiment. One feature though is that having the learning skills as is makes the training of alts more complex. You can't throw up a R&D or cyno alt as quickly as you could with all training skills maxed out. I'd probably recycle two or three of my current alts (I have six). This reduces the influx of isk farming alts since there's a greater lead time before the alt in training becomes experienced enough to break even on GTC purchases.
Stickletodd Amarr Stickletodd Corp	Posted - 2009.01.15 19:22:00 - [21] I am sure someone at CCP is looking at pricing. I would expect it to go down, actually. Look at it this way. 30 days is now set at $19.99US. If they raise that, they will lose patrons simply because of the downturn in the world economy. How will this affect GTSs? When GTCs approach real cost, then it is much simpler, and easier, to pay the monitory cost. You pay, you play. Instead of you pay, you work, you save ISK, then you play. If you want to increase participation, you lower the price and sell more. Eventually you will over saturate, however, that may take some time and the income from new accounts could go for much needed R&D and expansion.
Ricdic Caldari	Posted - 2009.01.16 02:31:00 - [22] It's a good wave to ride. Pick up some PLEX and just sit on them. Their price looks to be being moved eve-wide up to the 400m mark after which I have no doubt it will keep rising. Get those buy orders out, and maybe even push the price up a bit. It's interesting to see the prices some (including myself) will pay to play Eve
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.16 15:21:00 - [23] Originally by: Stickletodd When GTCs approach real cost, then it is much simpler, and easier, to pay the monitory cost. Precisely correct. CCP don't want the secure GTC exchange. It exists only to combat RMT trade. They would much prefer everyone paid for their accounts by credit card. That would make policing stolen and EULA-violating accounts 1337% easier. CCP knew prices would be going to the level where newbies couldn't hope to convert a trial to a paid account by farming their butts off when they hiked the price of game time 35% last summer and put a minimum of 60 days on the package size. They knew prices would go sky high after eliminating ghost training. And I suspect they knew allowing traders to control the already tight GTC supply by introducing PLEXes would not make game time any cheaper. IMO the current GTC price trend is working as intended. The impact on newer players is vastly overstated. And older players have too much invested in the game to simply abandon it because suddenly they have to grind an extra 10 hours a week. That extra grinding time shows more simultaneous users in game and is a positive image for Eve -- it makes the game look like it's growing again. If you buy my reasoning and are not getting on board this tulip bulb buying frenzy for some sort of moral reason -- well, I feel sorry for your wallet. To the moon, Alice! Using my secret 23/7 AFK farming formula I come up with 1.2 billion a month before it becomes utterly impractical to run armies of alts. Only as we approach this number will we have demand slow enough to match supply.
SellOrder Forum	Posted - 2009.01.16 16:45:00 - [24] Edited by: SellOrder Forum on 16/01/2009 16:47:27 Edited by: SellOrder Forum on 16/01/2009 16:45:38 Buy them quick, buy them now. Everyone is on the GTC > to 1 billion band wagon and you know what they will, not because of supply and demand, but because some rich folk want them at 1 bil and are going to incredible lengths, buying them in game and spreading rumers and facts on these here forums about what a safe gamble they are. Disclaimer if you put buy orders up beware that any day now people will realise that the price wont hold at this level. You can see the increase in supply clearly on the Jita Graph, as price increases so will the influx of GTC sellers, at the moment speculation and manipulation is hiding the usually supply/demand rules. A crash is coming. If you dont take my word for it, watch Jita for a day. sell Price slowly edges downwards all day, and every so ofter somebody "corrects" this downward pressure and buy up all the GTC. This causes and artificial demand spike, raising the prices by 20-30mil at this point the manipulator is feeding the market with orders of 1 and 2 to hide his earlier dealings and to stop people crashing the market too soon. I have made a few Isk's usuing set and forget tactics, placing low buys and high sells. As the manipulations get played out and the market move through the day, I get loads at the low price and sell loads to one person at the high price. Lots of potential profits to be made but be careful entering the market at this inflated level carries more risk.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.16 17:07:00 - [25] Originally by: SellOrder Forum Everyone is on the GTC > to 1 billion band wagon and you know what they will, not because of supply and demand, but because some rich folk want them at 1 bil and are going to incredible lengths, buying them in game and spreading rumers and facts on these here forums about what a safe gamble they are. Safe and gamble are opposite concepts. That said, would you rather ride the coattails of said "rich" people (who have either through luck or brainpower acquired and retained assets) or be a contrarian knowing trading in eve is a slightly negative sum game? Quote: If you dont take my word for it, watch Jita for a day. sell Price slowly edges downwards all day, and every so ofter somebody "corrects" this downward pressure and buy up all the GTC. This causes and artificial demand spike, raising the prices by 20-30mil at this point the manipulator is feeding the market with orders of 1 and 2 to hide his earlier dealings and to stop people crashing the market too soon. Or you could realize the evening is when US timezone players come on. They have historically made up the bulk of the GTC selling public. GTC prices also drop on weekends, more so during US daytime. What you described is exactly how any trader not interested in 23x7 .01 isk games functions. You let the undercutters wear themselves out and simply buy the low-hanging fruit, re-pricing it. People continue buying from your higher sell order and it takes time for the undercutters to re-establish their position. If you cap their buy orders with one of your own you can make a tidy profit during the short time you are on. Quote: Lots of potential profits to be made but be careful entering the market at this inflated level carries more risk. Working as intended. However, I re-iterate. If you "lose your shirt" on this investment the worst that happens is you get some extra game time on your account to make up the shortfall. This doesn't hold for any other in-game long position. There is a risk to GTC trading. I could be wrong about CCP's intentions and they could very easily fix the lack of casual sellers problem by a small modification to the way PLEXes are generated. While that would be a bloodbath for anyone holding a long PLEX position I doubt it'll happen.
SellOrder Forum	Posted - 2009.01.16 19:41:00 - [26] Originally by: Clair Bear Safe and gamble are opposite concepts. That said, would you rather ride the coattails of said "rich" people (who have either through luck or brainpower acquired and retained assets) or be a contrarian knowing trading in eve is a slightly negative sum game?. Not much is 100% certain and banking on something less than 100% certain is a gamble. Backing a 1-4fav is alot safer in terms of getting a return than backing the 100-1, 3 legged pony. Dont really care much for what language experts want to make of it but in my eyes some gamles are safe. I call it a gamble as there is no certainty and although it may appear safe there is always a risk. Bookies have been know to stop all bets because the odds of something become too favourable. That being said I prefer to ride on other peoples manipulations and be safe from having over exposed myself. Originally by: Clair Bear Or you could realize the evening is when US timezone players come on. They have historically made up the bulk of the GTC selling public. GTC prices also drop on weekends, more so during US daytime. What you described is exactly how any trader not interested in 23x7 .01 isk games functions. You let the undercutters wear themselves out and simply buy the low-hanging fruit, re-pricing it. People continue buying from your higher sell order and it takes time for the undercutters to re-establish their position. If you cap their buy orders with one of your own you can make a tidy profit during the short time you are on. I am fully aware of those facts, My whole trading operation is built around work hence Jita patterns are a playground to me. But someone buying 30-40 units off sell orders on a regular bases, I can put this down to american sellers? Only reason I can see for that is its the seller themselves manipulating the market, eitherway its manipulation and a risky venture to invest money in like some people want you to believe. Originally by: Clair Bear Working as intended. However, I re-iterate. If you "lose your shirt" on this investment the worst that happens is you get some extra game time on your account to make up the shortfall. This doesn't hold for any other in-game long position. There is a risk to GTC trading. I could be wrong about CCP's intentions and they could very easily fix the lack of casual sellers problem by a small modification to the way PLEXes are generated. While that would be a bloodbath for anyone holding a long PLEX position I doubt it'll happen. IMO CCP will do what gets them most $$$ and nothing we can do about it, if they nerf codes its the same as nerfing anything else, we will be the last people they worry about, Business will rule those decisions and the CSM will ensure CCP look good atleast as far as media reports are conserned. You can listen to my advice or you can ignore it, but my forecast are based trading these items since they were introduced. Many years of buying them on the forums. Knowledge of many other area's that will affect how this plays out. Take it as you will. But my above post is there so I can point back in a few month and say "I told you so" Good luck and please stock up on GTC this weekend in Jita, the more interest the better it will play out.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.16 20:19:00 - [27] Originally by: SellOrder Forum I am fully aware of those facts, My whole trading operation is built around work hence Jita patterns are a playground to me. But someone buying 30-40 units off sell orders on a regular bases, I can put this down to american sellers? Only reason I can see for that is its the seller themselves manipulating the market, eitherway its manipulation and a risky venture to invest money in like some people want you to believe. Any eve investment is risky. That's why it's called market PvP. In addition there is always the looming possibility of a nerf out of the blue rendering your entire inventory worthless. Diversification is key to survival. Quote: You can listen to my advice or you can ignore it, but my forecast are based trading these items since they were introduced. Many years of buying them on the forums. Knowledge of many other area's that will affect how this plays out. Take it as you will. But my above post is there so I can point back in a few month and say "I told you so" Oh come on, now this is just silly. Would you go long any eve commodity, leave it for "a few months" and expect no price movement? 3 months can be an eternity in this game, and even a broken clock can be right twice a day. I've put my stake in the ground. I'm predicting 500M PLEX by March 10th. In fact, I'm predicting 380M for a PLEX by next friday. Care to venture some numeric short term predictions yourself? This is post-christmas season. People's RL wallets are bracing to receive the first post-christmas spending credit card bill. There won't be any sudden firehose of supply this month. Quote: Good luck and please stock up on GTC this weekend in Jita, the more interest the better it will play out. Will do! I'm almost out of my long position but I'll be sure to re-accumulate it over the weekend.
SellOrder Forum	Posted - 2009.01.16 21:15:00 - [28] 395mil by this sunday evening jita sell down to 360-370 jita sell price by end of play Monday steady rise back to 380-390m throughout the week 405+ By sunday evening It will follow a similar pattern for a number of weeks possibly seeing 450 by March 10th. Everyone has been reading this numerous times by numerous people that the price is going to keep rising and this 1 bil figure has gone round and round. 100's of people will be rushing out to take these month-2 month positions and will stock pile now to sell then (causing/increasing the price rise due to massively inflated demand coupled with the ingame advertisement now that GTC's are available ingame causing extra demand Jita Graph) at some point and it depends on how far the market can be pushed up all that extra stock will be leaked back onto the market causing a stop to the price rise and eventually big drop back to 200-250 per plex. My prediction at the moment mid-late feb.
Astarte Nosferatu Minmatar Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation	Posted - 2009.01.16 21:23:00 - [29] I agree that prices are rising partially due to speculation, and I also agree that the bubble will burst. I disagree however on the timeframe and the impact of the crash. If nothing drastically changes in how the GTC system works from CCP's end, I think prices will level out around 500-600mil by November/December 2009. Inflation is going up, isk-infusion is ever increasing, GTC's will simply follow the trend. People will be willing to pay more GTC's simply cause people will be earning making more isk through missions, insurance pay-outs, etc...
Sawny Bean Xeno Tech Corp	Posted - 2009.01.16 21:56:00 - [30] Another upward pressure on the gtc price that I think is getting overlooked are the isk farmers. It is easier then ever for them to use plexes to keep their accounts active. But more importantly, the plex card allows isk farmers to use plexes for rmt trading again. There are sites being spammed in eve mail that are selling plex cards for rl cash at a price below the rl cash gtc price.

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