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720
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Posted - 2009.01.22 23:10:00 -
[1]
While Xabier et al scam's are all in the news I thought I might shift the topic and tone a bit and ask the MD forums thoughts on the effects of the release of the retail box in March.
Assuming an influx of new players what I foresee a general drop in prices as more players = more mission runners = more drops = cheaper loot = cheaper minerals (more new miners will also increase the amount of minerals being mined, decreasing minerals cost) = cheaper manufacturing = drop in prices overall.
I also expect to see more demand for Frigates and Cruisers but I wonder, how many new players will there be? How large will the effect be? And what are you plans to cash in on these new players arrival?
Any predictions?
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ksc1226
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Posted - 2009.01.22 23:15:00 -
[2]
I don't see a reason for there to be a massive influx of players immediately. Although it is reason for a larger, steady, rate of new players.
That said, the effects of new players will probably take a few weeks-months to become apparent. As at the beginning, the players will be iskless and not have the capabilities to mine in large quantities.
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.01.23 00:06:00 -
[3]
There is a short and long term effect.
Short term (1-6 months): these guys will want frigates, cruisers, battlecruisers and in a month or two battleships. T1 and named loot at the low quality mission hubs. The market for +2 and +3 implants may pick up.
Long term (6+ months): they will become just like the rest of the current population.
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Loney
CyberDyne R-D
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Posted - 2009.01.23 00:43:00 -
[4]
I would think the impact would depend on how well they market the Boxed Set? Going from 250k players to 2.5m player to fast will F everyting up in the first 1-6 months.
I mean If they market it anything like WOW and have a different commercial every hour with 24 different celebrities on EVERY channel of TV then who the heck knows.
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Johnny Rockefeller
Builders League United
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Posted - 2009.01.23 02:18:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Loney I would think the impact would depend on how well they market the Boxed Set? Going from 250k players to 2.5m player to fast will F everyting up in the first 1-6 months.
That seems like a tad bit of an overestimate, no?
Quote:
I mean If they market it anything like WOW and have a different commercial every hour with 24 different celebrities on EVERY channel of TV then who the heck knows.
I don't think CCP can afford that scale of a marketing campaign. Blizzard probably has considerably more money to blow on ads, not that I actually know what I'm talking about.
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ksc1226
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Posted - 2009.01.23 02:29:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Johnny Rockefeller
I don't think CCP can afford that scale of a marketing campaign. Blizzard probably has considerably more money to blow on ads, not that I actually know what I'm talking about.
Have u seen all of there web adds lately! They have already started their campaign a few months ago. |
MailDeadDrop
Globaltech Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.23 03:37:00 -
[7]
Don't hate me for suggesting this, but I wonder if there's money to be had in starting some base characters *now* with the intention of selling them come March.
MDD Jump Clones: 8M and NO corp switching |
Astarte Nosferatu
Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation
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Posted - 2009.01.23 05:19:00 -
[8]
Originally by: MailDeadDrop Don't hate me for suggesting this, but I wonder if there's money to be had in starting some base characters *now* with the intention of selling them come March.
MDD
Already have several accounts in training for exactly that purpose . |
Carniflex
Caldari StarHunt Systematic-Chaos
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Posted - 2009.01.23 12:08:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Loney I would think the impact would depend on how well they market the Boxed Set? Going from 250k players to 2.5m player to fast will F everyting up in the first 1-6 months.
I mean If they market it anything like WOW and have a different commercial every hour with 24 different celebrities on EVERY channel of TV then who the heck knows.
If they would go from 250k to 2.5 m overnight I think the 'lagtotalhelldeath' would last only perhaps few weeks, with the income from that amount of initial subscriptions they could quite likely seriously expand EVE cluster in very rapid way to the point of having one core per solarsystem. It might not save Jita from melting, but it might actually make playing in majority of solarsystems possible even under that kind of loads. We aould be talking here about 150 ... 200 k PCU's so many of those initial joiners might not quit after first month bcos of lag.
That out of way I think increasing subsrciption base tenfold overnight as a result of one expansion is somewhat unlikely. More likely would seem perhaps initial doubling of population and then some 2 to 3 months of fluctuations in population until the number stabilizes. Hopefully somewhere higher than from where it started at 10th march. |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.01.23 13:25:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Astarte Nosferatu
Originally by: MailDeadDrop Don't hate me for suggesting this, but I wonder if there's money to be had in starting some base characters *now* with the intention of selling them come March.
MDD
Already have several accounts in training for exactly that purpose .
Likewise, getting each one to a specific specialization as well. PvP oriented, mission runner, and a full factory slot schlub. |
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Reignar Gnalf
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Posted - 2009.01.23 13:32:00 -
[11]
My guess is that the demand for frigates and cruisers will indeed increase as there will be a big influx of new players who need ships. The same will probably also go for the corresponding t1 and named mods. New players will also have less knowledge of the worth of different items so there will probably be an opportunity for unscrupulous traders to make nice returns by selling stuff to the newer players.
I'm not so sure if I believe there will be any huge effect on the mineral prices due to increased supply by more miners. The high sec belts are already quite heavily mined and the new characters joining the game will not be able to produce enough minerals with their low skills to really affect things, at least not for the first months before they get good skills and get into better mining ships.
As for the population I would expect a decent increase after the release and advertisements. The question is how many of the new subscribers will be left after the included trial month period ends. From the last few MMO releases I've seen a lot of players leave quite early. Eve is of course a bit special in that it has been around for so long that many of the bugs and "children diseases" that plague new releases have already been taken care of. The number of quitters will of course be influenced by how well the servers can handle the additional stress. What I'm definitely not looking forward to is the WoW fanboy crowd invasion and the endless comparisons between the games in the chat. But at least EVE is complicated enough that most such people are (hopefully) filtered out relatively quickly and then the people who genuinely want to learn will remain. In any case there should be interesting times ahead :) |
cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2009.01.23 13:48:00 -
[12]
Huge influx of new players, a few thoughts:
1. I make more money selling ships 2. SCAMS go way up 3. happy time for low sec gate camps 4. Smart traders will make more cash on inflated sales prices 5. I make more money reprocessing things 6. If current high sec riod volumes stay the same there will not be anything to mine in high sec for most of the week
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ingenting
20th Legion Southern Cross Alliance
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Posted - 2009.01.23 14:11:00 -
[13]
Originally by: cosmoray 6. If current high sec riod volumes stay the same there will not be anything to mine in high sec for most of the week
hopefully more people will seek out lowsec or 0.0 due to that :) _________________ - "Welcome to EVE, remember to insu *BAAOOM*... Told you, newb." |
Aricaan
Gallente Playboy Enterprises Dark Taboo
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Posted - 2009.01.23 14:14:00 -
[14]
Who do you think they are actually trying to sell this too though?
I'd imagine that most people that have heard of EvE will just download it, and not get the box copy. My guess is someone with a limited budget(assuming that its going to sell for 20$ a copy still) thats just browsing for something new to try. So in a way just having a box copy is a marketing strategy of its own. Also might help to get some reviews (ala Airplay) on sites like IGN, who havnt reviewed EvE since its release over 5 years ago.
I do know the devs are planning on some nice bonuses for people that buy the box copy, and these might apply to people that already have an account, so in a weird way a lot people that buy the boxed copy might actually already have accounts.
Long answer short, I think itll have a small impact. But I have been wrong before. :P
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Aricaan
Gallente Playboy Enterprises Dark Taboo
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Posted - 2009.01.23 14:16:00 -
[15]
Originally by: cosmoray
6. If current high sec riod volumes stay the same there will not be anything to mine in high sec for most of the week
You need to get out more.
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Deathifier
Minmatar Carebears Must Die Ltd.
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Posted - 2009.01.23 14:44:00 -
[16]
Originally by: cosmoray Huge influx of new players, a few thoughts:
1. I make more money selling ships 2. SCAMS go way up 3. happy time for low sec gate camps 4. Smart traders will make more cash on inflated sales prices 5. I make more money reprocessing things 6. If current high sec riod volumes stay the same there will not be anything to mine in high sec for most of the week
More competition in high sec for rocks to harvest ---> more miners forced to harvest lowsec belts, right into my clutches
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Hersheff
NTeK Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.23 14:46:00 -
[17]
Everyone assumes that there will be a massive influx of new players... which i believe will not be the case
I estimate at a maxim 1k~2k more concomitent players... if things go well ~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now, quiet! The're about to announce the lottery numbers... |
nether void
Caldari Shrapnel Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.23 15:00:00 -
[18]
I would have released my box with ambulation. I don't expect a huge amount of new subs. +20% on the high end. Not really because of the 'no ambulation' thing, but because this game is very niche. Not many people like full PvP games. Those that do are pretty much already playing. |
MarieFrance Tessier
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Posted - 2009.01.23 16:33:00 -
[19]
GTC prices will likely drop as well, if there were actually an influx of new players, just on account of them wanting to convert more $ to ISK to catch up.
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Impolite Andevil
The Shadow Knights Bionic Dawn
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Posted - 2009.01.23 16:36:00 -
[20]
Might I point out that Eve was already a retail box game once... About 4 years ago, IIRC. There was no massive player influx then, I wouldn't expect a huge one now.
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Loney
CyberDyne R-D
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Posted - 2009.01.23 18:45:00 -
[21]
Originally by: cosmoray Huge influx of new players, a few thoughts: 6. If current high sec riod volumes stay the same there will not be anything to mine in high sec for most of the week
Hmmm... that would be interesting... I would suspect ROID volumes/spawn rates woud stay the same... but what number of players would it take to mine out all the ore in Empire/Lowsec weekly FORCING people to move to 0.0 to mine Tritanium... lol.
Originally by: Aricaan My guess is someone with a limited budget(assuming that its going to sell for 20$ a copy. I do know the devs are planning on some nice bonuses for people that buy the box copy.
They stated the BOX SET will include a 60-day of game time (possibly a GTC) so it will probally cost about same as a 60-day GTC! If it costs less that will be interesting on how it will effect things. They also stated that the BOX SET will contain a collectors set of items that is NOT available anywhere else.
Originally by: Impolite Andevil Might I point out that Eve was already a retail box game once... About 4 years ago, IIRC. There was no massive player influx then, I wouldn't expect a huge one now.
From what I remember it was NOT in stores and you could only order it offline. Im talking about seeing EVE in every Wallmart, BestBuy, Electronic Boutique, and whatever other similiar type stores accross Europe. If this is the case I would expece at least a stead flow of new players weekly even if they only play for them frist 60 days! |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.01.23 19:16:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Loney
Originally by: cosmoray Huge influx of new players, a few thoughts: 6. If current high sec riod volumes stay the same there will not be anything to mine in high sec for most of the week
Hmmm... that would be interesting... I would suspect ROID volumes/spawn rates woud stay the same... but what number of players would it take to mine out all the ore in Empire/Lowsec weekly FORCING people to move to 0.0 to mine Tritanium... lol.
Originally by: Aricaan My guess is someone with a limited budget(assuming that its going to sell for 20$ a copy. I do know the devs are planning on some nice bonuses for people that buy the box copy.
They stated the BOX SET will include a 60-day of game time (possibly a GTC) so it will probally cost about same as a 60-day GTC! If it costs less that will be interesting on how it will effect things. They also stated that the BOX SET will contain a collectors set of items that is NOT available anywhere else.
Originally by: Impolite Andevil Might I point out that Eve was already a retail box game once... About 4 years ago, IIRC. There was no massive player influx then, I wouldn't expect a huge one now.
From what I remember it was NOT in stores and you could only order it offline. Im talking about seeing EVE in every Wallmart, BestBuy, Electronic Boutique, and whatever other similiar type stores accross Europe. If this is the case I would expece at least a stead flow of new players weekly even if they only play for them frist 60 days!
At a very minimum it was on demo discs while I was a store manager for EB some time back |
Chun Sa
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Posted - 2009.01.23 21:59:00 -
[23]
I purchased EVE-Online from a brick and mortar store many many years ago. Sometimes I read through the manual for a good laugh. How this game has changed!
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Athre
Minmatar The Higher Standard
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Posted - 2009.01.23 23:58:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Chun Sa I purchased EVE-Online from a brick and mortar store many many years ago. Sometimes I read through the manual for a good laugh. How this game has changed!
Agreed, I remember (yes I'm a end beta 2003 person) people in europe buying up 20 boxes and transacting them to their corp mates and friends in the USA.
Now you all will have me looking for my game box when I get home. I remember some glossy photos thing that came with it too. |
nether void
Caldari Shrapnel Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.24 02:59:00 -
[25]
=D I bought EVE when it was in a box. Man, that was a long time ago. lol I think I have an Exodus box. *goes to find it* |
Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.01.24 07:20:00 -
[26]
You guys realize there is an infinite amount of ore to be mined just from speaking to an agent or two, right?
Noobs will go into lowsec belts, but only once. At least the ones with an average number of chromosomes that is. After the initial swelling of killboards courtesy of poorly fit T1 frigates the lowsec impact will be zero.
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Astarte Nosferatu
Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation
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Posted - 2009.01.24 08:57:00 -
[27]
I still have two EvE boxes from 2003, perhaps they can be sold for big bucks to wealthy collectors .
Yes, I'm selling some of my shares |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2009.01.24 11:55:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Impolite Andevil Might I point out that Eve was already a retail box game once... About 4 years ago, IIRC. There was no massive player influx then, I wouldn't expect a huge one now.
5 years ago to be exact. Back then Eve was an unknown quantity that looked to be very niche. It was poorly marketed by Simon & Schuster. If CCP hadn't regained control of their product Eve would likely be listed in one of those "Great Ideas That Died" lists. Factors have changed. Eve appears to be here for years to come, it has a lot of material about it that is accessible via Google, and has even had a TV commercial spot here and there. There isn't a gamer out there that either plays MMO's himself or knows someone who plays MMO's. There isn't a person who plays MMO's that has not heard of Eve. I think the only reason there's not been a bigger defection of players at this point is the challenging nature of Eve. For most of us it is not too challenging however for the rest of them Eve looks like a place that they can't level 70 in 3 - 4 weeks time, run around typing obscenities (doing dance moves in your face) and remain unmolested, where pure grind only gets you so far. For the challenged, Eve can easily (and quickly) become work away from work. They don't want that. |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2009.01.24 13:29:00 -
[29]
Frigates have always been very profitable on margin but not so impressive on volume unless you know where to sell them. With all these new players coming in, frigates will start to turn over a lot more volume, which means more profit but also more competition for that profit. Prices will probably drop a good bit in the starter systems as everyone claws away at the new players for isk. I hadn't considered implants but they may also increase in volume turned over.
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Astarte Nosferatu
Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation
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Posted - 2009.01.24 16:50:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Nyphur Frigates have always been very profitable on margin but not so impressive on volume unless you know where to sell them. With all these new players coming in, frigates will start to turn over a lot more volume, which means more profit but also more competition for that profit. Prices will probably drop a good bit in the starter systems as everyone claws away at the new players for isk. I hadn't considered implants but they may also increase in volume turned over.
Cheaper frigates and furious competition between sellers means a lot of high profit field days for recyclers .
Yes, I'm selling some of my shares |
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