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Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.19 21:36:00 -
[1] - Quote
I enjoyed the QEN and I'd love to see more writing from Doctor E, either here or a return to QEN publishing.
I don't think he's often been factually wrong. Case in point the technetium issue cited above is largely a manufactured shortage caused by tech moon operators running a cartel rather than an actual shortage of the stuff in the game. So I wouldn't blame the economist for something clever players have caused to become highly over-priced. |
Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.20 11:15:00 -
[2] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Callduron wrote:I enjoyed the QEN and I'd love to see more writing from Doctor E, either here or a return to QEN publishing.
I don't think he's often been factually wrong. Case in point the technetium issue cited above is largely a manufactured shortage caused by tech moon operators running a cartel rather than an actual shortage of the stuff in the game. So I wouldn't blame the economist for something clever players have caused to become highly over-priced. look how dumb you are
Oh sorry. Were you hoping it would still stay a secret while you sell off as much tech as possible before they implement tech rarely dropping during regular mining? |
Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.20 16:30:00 -
[3] - Quote
Ha ha, I've certainly touched a nerve. |
Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.20 23:15:00 -
[4] - Quote
My word you're panicking, aren't you?
Look, tech stocks can't be empty as you keep insisting. Otherwise the price would be constantly inflating, not spiking and going back down. But you know that :) |
Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.21 01:01:00 -
[5] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.
You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense.
When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel. |
Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.21 18:15:00 -
[6] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Callduron wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.
You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense. When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel. Markets never run "counter logic" and "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent". This is the fun thing about people willing to find the super-deep reason in everything: they get lost in the details while they crawl in the dark and get in all sorts of rumors and speculations. All I see in Corestwo's graph is like what I posted yesterday in my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread about trends: look from the Feb 2001 to end of 2003 example. That's all you need to know, not how good or bad Goons are, how scarce or not Technetium is and tralala nobody can know.
OK, I read your other thread about the candle bar graphs and it looks very interesting. I still think you're missing the point about Tech, especially if you're inferring from regular up and down fluctuations that there cannot be a cartel.
I'm not saying all Tech stock is owned by one shadowy puppetmaster who logs on and updates his sell orders once a week. Tech has basically been analogous to real world gold for the last two years. Since Akita T's the Sky's the limit post people have stored value in Tech. So of course there are spikes because any price point will see long and short term speculators move stock.
But most Tech that is actually harvested is subject to a price agreement made by nullsec alliances. That's why, with a Tech nerf imminent, the price has gone up. Because clever players are maximising their profits while they still can. As Mittens said in the state of the Goonion 3 weeks ago when asked about the incoming tech nerf "our finance guys have been planning for this since we got our first tech moon".
I also think, V V, that when you read posts from people like Coretwo you make the mistake of taking his obvious expertise as an indication that what he is saying is correct. He IS expert. He also has a vested interest. That's why he's misleading the board. It reminds me of how, in 2008 when we started to realise there might be a problem with our savings and pensions, journalists invited experts from Goldman Sachs on to their programmes to advise the public how to invest their money. If you want to be a real auditing expert you need to look at the people as well as the numbers.
Anyway I need to learn a bit more about candles before we can really have a decent discussion on why you think the graphs show there is no cartel in operation, VV. Thanks for your insights. |
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