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*POP* goes the GTC bubble

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Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.01.27 03:34:00 - [1] Well, it was nice while it lasted. I quoth from the patch notes: "In this release, the redeeming system will allow for game time credit to be purchased via the Secure EVE Online website in the form of 30 Day Pilot License Extensions (PLEX). More information about the use of PLEX can be found here." Here come the casual sellers again. The big thing to take away here is CCP is not happy with the current GTC prices and will keep trying things until the prices drop. Bummer. Hope y'all enjoyed the ride as much as I have.
Jason Edwards Internet Tough Guy	Posted - 2009.01.27 04:42:00 - [2] Edited by: Jason Edwards on 27/01/2009 04:42:48 how does this pop the supposed bubble? IF there is a bubble on plex and gtcs. There is a force which is purchasing the plex/gtcs at a price in order to sell at a higher value. Presumably to another person who wants to sell at a higher price. Meanwhile anyone inside that bubble... buying and reselling for profit... does make a profit based on those who require such products...however eventually someone reaches the break point where the people who actually consume the products no longer do so. The traders see this. Stop trading. Someone ends up having bought the product at the higher price. Often a trader. Bubbles pop themselves eventually based off supply vs demand completely. IF the plex-gtcs are in a bubble... it'll pop itself. Not this vague new mechanic.
LaVista Vista	Posted - 2009.01.27 05:03:00 - [3] There has a very high barrier to entry to the PLEX market due to the fact places like shattered crystal likes to call you. Now that you will be able to buy from CCP, that barrier to entry will be gone. Price will come falling down soon enough.
Jason Edwards Internet Tough Guy	Posted - 2009.01.27 05:08:00 - [4] Originally by: LaVista Vista There has a very high barrier to entry to the PLEX market due to the fact places like shattered crystal likes to call you. Now that you will be able to buy from CCP, that barrier to entry will be gone. Price will come falling down soon enough. They only called me once :) Didnt even realize they would... funny thing is she called me and asked me about sports arenas or something... lawl... i dont follow sports nor know anything about them. I do realize what you are saying. I dont think there is such a big factor in that.
LaVista Vista	Posted - 2009.01.27 05:09:00 - [5] Originally by: Jason Edwards Originally by: LaVista Vista There has a very high barrier to entry to the PLEX market due to the fact places like shattered crystal likes to call you. Now that you will be able to buy from CCP, that barrier to entry will be gone. Price will come falling down soon enough. They only called me once :) Didnt even realize they would... funny thing is she called me and asked me about sports arenas or something... lawl... i dont follow sports nor know anything about them. I do realize what you are saying. I dont think there is such a big factor in that. When they call you and ask you for a photocopy of your passport and utility bill, that's a HUGE barrier to entry. A barrier which I didn't want to cross
Lieutenant Obvious Caldari Thundercats RAZOR Alliance	Posted - 2009.01.27 05:23:00 - [6] Edited by: Lieutenant Obvious on 27/01/2009 05:23:45 If it works the way I'm assuming it means the smallest quantity of GTC time that can be purchased with real money for resale ingame is again 30 days, instead of the current 60. This means more casuals can buy a 30d and resell it for a quick cash boost without having to outlay 30+ bucks to do so. Cheaper goods means more people buying them. More supply lowers price. I'm again assuming this is what Clair is refering to.
Ricdics Tleilex Developments Dara Cothrom	Posted - 2009.01.27 05:39:00 - [7] Good time for us to sell eh
Jason Edwards Internet Tough Guy	Posted - 2009.01.27 06:30:00 - [8] Originally by: Ricdics Good time for us to sell eh no it's a great time to hold on to them. ------------------------ To make a megathron from scratch, you must first invent the eve universe. ------------------------ Life sucks and then you get podded.
LaVista Vista	Posted - 2009.01.27 06:50:00 - [9] Originally by: Jason Edwards Originally by: Ricdics Good time for us to sell eh no it's a great time to hold on to them. Why? It would only make sense to keep them if prices were to go up rapidly. I don't exactly assume this will be the case whatsoever.
Ricdics Tleilex Developments Dara Cothrom	Posted - 2009.01.27 07:20:00 - [10] easier to purchase means there will be a higher supply. It will still likely be able to be manipulated but will be a lot harder. It was pure luck that I wrapped up our PLEX manipulation over the past week.
Katnip Amarr Imperial Shipment	Posted - 2009.01.27 07:43:00 - [11] Well I for one am glad my Account is not going dark this month! \0/ 30d TC for the win
Ambo State Protectorate	Posted - 2009.01.27 08:43:00 - [12] And I just bought a 60 day gtc for 690 mil. -------------------------------------- Trader? Investor? Just want to track your finances? Check out EMMA
Astarte Nosferatu Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation	Posted - 2009.01.27 09:27:00 - [13] Heh, I'm glad I sold my last 4 at 370mil just yesterday.
Amrumm Rhetorical Devices	Posted - 2009.01.27 10:02:00 - [14] Originally by: Clair Bear Well, it was nice while it lasted. I quoth from the patch notes: "In this release, the redeeming system will allow for game time credit to be purchased via the Secure EVE Online website in the form of 30 Day Pilot License Extensions (PLEX). More information about the use of PLEX can be found here." Here come the casual sellers again. The big thing to take away here is CCP is not happy with the current GTC prices and will keep trying things until the prices drop. Bummer. Hope y'all enjoyed the ride as much as I have. Pure speculation: 1> CCP would like GTC prices to be high so players in need of ISK are more likely to sell some GTC rather then getting their ISK from illegal sources, 2> CCP would like GTC prices to be low so casual players are more easily enticed into 'just one more month'. I'm guessing that the PLEX was introduced to assist the casual players with option 2. My interpretation of the patch note is that it will now be possible to use a PLEX to reactivate an inactive account, not so much that they will start selling 30 day GTC. (Of course, I could be way of base.) Good news for the datacore farmers. Funny how ghost training was disabled, but datacore farming while inactive was not. The first had the effect of people using their (alt) accounts a bit less, the latter has the effect of people creating additional accounts.
YouGotRipped Ewigkeit	Posted - 2009.01.27 10:18:00 - [15] Edited by: YouGotRipped on 27/01/2009 10:21:55 Originally by: Amrumm Pure speculation: 1> CCP would like GTC prices to be high so players in need of ISK are more likely to sell some GTC rather then getting their ISK from illegal sources, 2> CCP would like GTC prices to be low so casual players are more easily enticed into 'just one more month'. I'm guessing that the PLEX was introduced to assist the casual players with option 2. My interpretation of the patch note is that it will now be possible to use a PLEX to reactivate an inactive account, not so much that they will start selling 30 day GTC. (Of course, I could be way of base.) Good news for the datacore farmers. Funny how ghost training was disabled, but datacore farming while inactive was not. The first had the effect of people using their (alt) accounts a bit less, the latter has the effect of people creating additional accounts. It is in the best interest of CCP that supply meets demand more easily. An arbitrary fixed price only caused balancing problems which directly affected the number of people playing the game (too much buyers or too much sellers has the same bad effect), profitability, passive advertising, etc.
Kazuo Ishiguro House of Marbles Zzz	Posted - 2009.01.27 10:18:00 - [16] Originally by: Ambo And I just bought a 60 day gtc for 690 mil. Heh, I got mine at 650 with a single post, no bumping. I wonder whether this is going to kill off the market for the 60-day GTCs - if 2x PLEX sells for more, people can just convert, instantly.
Speculative Sally	Posted - 2009.01.27 11:47:00 - [17] Looks like I'll get my sub 600M 60 day GTCs after all
Arestane	Posted - 2009.01.27 13:05:00 - [18] I am the slow one, as usual. What did actually change now with today's patch? Does CCP now sell the 30 day plex for real money from the account management page or what?
cosmoray Cosmoray Construction	Posted - 2009.01.27 13:09:00 - [19] It is fairly clear that CCP wants the price lower with this change. Which means money gets you less ISK, which means you run out of cash quicker, which means you buy more plexes. CCP doesn't make money off super industrialists and a lot of people on this forum, but we are the minority. So, if CCP wants the plex price lowers, and..... traders see an opportunity to manipulate the price of the plexes upwards you will be going against CCP wishes. When that happens there is always one outcome, getting whacked with the nerf bat. So if the prices don't come down expect some sort of nerf that you can only buy "x" number of plexes per month, or something to stop manipulation attempts. Now would probably be a time to cash out.
Kylar Renpurs Dusk Blade	Posted - 2009.01.27 13:10:00 - [20] Pretty much. Personally I'm also wondering why this'll 'pop the bubble'. Yeah, some ETC merchants asked you for identifying information after you made a (first?) purchase. High barrier, sure, so don't go through that particular merchant. Not too tricky.
Alex555	Posted - 2009.01.27 13:44:00 - [21] Edited by: Alex555 on 27/01/2009 13:45:49 anyways a rise of the price of a plex was really fast. i was expecting ccp to make something like that. as for an effect on the market, let's wait a bit. if it is a panic sell then it is good because anyways one gets cheap month anyways the ride was awesome, i have really enjoyed
Midas Man Caldari Dzark Asylum	Posted - 2009.01.27 13:49:00 - [22] I wouldn't panick yet, Price dip this weekend due to someone cashing out oon a bit of horded stock. Only 1 days worth if that so not buble breaking, coupled with the usual begining of the week dip and we are down to 362 sell and not all that many. most at 370 ish. Expect prices back to 380-390 by friday night sat morning.
Alex555	Posted - 2009.01.27 13:57:00 - [23] Edited by: Alex555 on 27/01/2009 14:00:57 agree with Midas either someone knew about forthcoming patch and had no better idea but to sell off a bit. or maybe someone was selling some stock for no reason. anyways there are not so many dramatic changes. and still we dont know what would be the price charged by CCP
Permadocked Panda	Posted - 2009.01.27 14:25:00 - [24] Hay guise, Clair wants you to cashout and crash the price so he/she/it can buy moar cheap PLEX C/D????
Mithos Victus Aurelius Federation Apotheosis of Virtue	Posted - 2009.01.27 14:55:00 - [25] Edited by: Mithos Victus on 27/01/2009 14:56:32 Kinda cute watching people disagree with the OP just because they view agreement as some sort of grand forfeiture. Like seeing an animal refuse food and starve because the one in the cage next to it has something better. Can anyone think of a reason why CCP would waste time with the ingame PLEX buying mechanic at this point? Other than to combat some perceived imbalance or inadequacy with the current system? Don't they have a history of implementing changes to the GTC system in general for balance purposes? Where are all the people who wholeheartedly believed that CCP got rid of 30 day GTCs to try and level off and reduce purchases because they were losing real revenue off of them? I see how easily people forget. Case in point: Yes, CCP implemented the new ingame PLEX mechanic for balance purposes. No, price fluctuations probably have nothing to do with it. Yes, changing or improving market activity itself might be CCP's intention. _______________________________________________ [...a lion lurking in the plain]
SencneS Amarr Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2009.01.27 15:20:00 - [26] CCP will always want lower PLEX prices as it benefits them the most. Low Plex price benefits to CCP. 1) Casual user buys more plexes which means more real $ in CCP's pockets. 2) Player that wants ISK legally buys more plexes to sell. 3) Player that wants ISK illegally still buys "time" from CCP so it negates the fact CCP want higher prices to push out RMT. High Plex price benefits to CCP. 1) Players buy plexes instead of RMT. However if this was to happen the RMT would just lower their price to be better then PLEX anyway. That's pretty much it, the only benefit and it's a benefit that can be surcomvented pretty easily. Don't kid yourself it's considerably more beneficial for CCP to have lower PLEX prices so it stands to reason they want this.
Sikozu Prioris Serenity Engineering and Transport Company Wildly Inappropriate.	Posted - 2009.01.27 15:43:00 - [27] Originally by: LaVista Vista When they call you and ask you for a photocopy of your passport and utility bill, that's a HUGE barrier to entry. A barrier which I didn't want to cross All they asked me was some questions like, what is the name of the nearest hospital, nearest motorway etc etc. No copies of anything. All the people I know who have purchased from shatteredcrystal have only been asked the same. No offence but for them to ask for those must of flagged you up as an extremely risky transaction.
Mithos Victus Aurelius Federation Apotheosis of Virtue	Posted - 2009.01.27 16:19:00 - [28] Edited by: Mithos Victus on 27/01/2009 16:19:24 Originally by: SencneS Don't kid yourself it's considerably more beneficial for CCP to have lower PLEX prices so it stands to reason they want this. Hypothetical Player A purchases 10x GTCs through a reseller Player A sells 10x GTCs for 600mil each Player A retains 6,000,000,000.00 ISK CCP implements changes to the GTC mechanic GTCs bottom out to 300mil each Player B purchases 20x GTCs through a reseller Player B sells 20x GTCs for 300mil each to Player A Player B retains 6,000,000,000.00 ISK Player A gains 20x GTCs It does not take a math genius to see that in the hypothetical scenario above, CCP just got screwed out of twenty months worth of subscription fees. This twenty months worth of subscription fees negates the additional 10x GTCs that Player B purchased and thus the argument that reduced prices on time cards are beneficial at a fundamental level. CCP is trying to manage, balance, and redress the time card system in order to gain more control over it and make it more readily accessible to all players and traders alike. If anything, I suspect that CCP wants prices to remain fixed and constant or to continue to rise with the inflation of the ingame economy just like any fiscal system.
nether void Caldari Shrapnel Industries	Posted - 2009.01.27 16:53:00 - [29] Originally by: Mithos Victus Good stuff. While this is true I would say it's an outlier. In general, CCP will make more money off of this change than they lose, because it changes the exchange rate between real money and in game ISK back in the favor of real money. Again this is how scamming in game money will eventually become a real crime, because you can convert this in game money into real money. Maybe not in Eve's time, but sometime in the future of MMOs.
SencneS Amarr Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2009.01.27 17:03:00 - [30] Originally by: Mithos Victus Hypothetical Player A purchases 10x GTCs through a reseller Player A sells 10x GTCs for 600mil each Player A retains 6,000,000,000.00 ISK CCP implements changes to the GTC mechanic GTCs bottom out to 300mil each Player B purchases 20x GTCs through a reseller Player B sells 20x GTCs for 300mil each to Player A Player B retains 6,000,000,000.00 ISK Player A gains 20x GTCs It does not take a math genius to see that in the hypothetical scenario above, CCP just got screwed out of twenty months worth of subscription fees. This twenty months worth of subscription fees negates the additional 10x GTCs that Player B purchased and thus the argument that reduced prices on time cards are beneficial at a fundamental level. CCP is trying to manage, balance, and redress the time card system in order to gain more control over it and make it more readily accessible to all players and traders alike. If anything, I suspect that CCP wants prices to remain fixed and constant or to continue to rise with the inflation of the ingame economy just like any fiscal system. Just how did CCP manager to get screwed here... 30 GTCs purchased amoung 2 players. Player A gets 20 months worth of time at the cost of 6B. Player B gets 6B at the cost of 10 GTCs before the change. Player B still needs to buy time. So although you're somewhat correct, Player B has 6B in his pocket he also has ZERO minutes of play time. Player A makes out like a bandit I agree, but the loss is not on CCP. It's loss on Player B because he wanted 6B which is exactly what CCP wants to see happen. More PLEXs for less ISK. If PLEXs where 1B isk each, CCP would only get a half of a GTC out of me, because 1B lasts me quiet a while. However if I wanted 1B of ISK and they cost 250m each, I need 4 PLEX. This is WIN WIN for CCP regardless of how you look at it. Amarr for Life

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