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Evee Amine
Alsatia Industries
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Posted - 2009.04.30 04:59:00 -
[1]
With a production line so complex, where do you think the price will level off? I'd like to hear from people involved in tech 3 production, although anyone's opinion is welcomed
My uneducated Guess: Looking at the actual hulls, it appears the price is leveling off at about 600 mil. Using Jita prices the price to build a hull is around 425 mil, not including reverse engineering costs. Tengu's are the exception to the hulls, and are going for around 450 for whatever reason. Possibly a lot of resellers? Sub system prices are rather bouncy, so who the hell knows where they're going to end up. I'm not willing to venture a guess.
At this point, I don't see hull prices going down any lower. Considering the amount of effort it takes to produce tech 3 people want a decent amount reward for doing so, hence the still high prices. But if prices stay this high, how long will demand last? Tech 3 is still new so lots of people are buying for the "shiny" factor, but as that wears off people will be less willing to pay the high costs of tech 3. This in turn means running wormholes will yield less return, and more people will stop running them. This will eventually turn the tech 3 market into a low volume special interest market of sorts, with very few people buying tech 3 or running wormholes.
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.04.30 05:12:00 -
[2]
The tiny market for t3 at current (or even 1/2 current) costs is exactly why I haven't bothered with it. The shiny factor will wear off long before freetards start providing raw materials at price levels suitable for mass consumption.
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Jonathan Calvert
Minmatar Empire Mining and Trade
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Posted - 2009.04.30 14:14:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Jonathan Calvert on 30/04/2009 14:16:05 I am guessing supply will increase, and price will drop, once people finish training the skills neccesary to build t3 hulls and components. I myself am halfway through about 90 days of skill training, at which point I will start making parts. I would guess many t2 inventors and builders were in the same boat when Apoc came out.
Basically, its no more complex than t2 building, but requires more skill and more scarce resources. Once peopel get tired of stock piling materials in hopes of stricking it rich, prices will come down. This is all just speculation however. CCP could change something in the next patch, things could never level off. Free markets are near impossible to predict.
Not sure why the freetards have to be insulted. Of course its not free, but given you cant reprocess them, and the buyers are few, the only real value is your time. Simply selling WH stuff to someone who resells it at a higher price, doesnt lower prices. Just creates surplus inventory. Someone at some point has to actually build and sell.
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Dzil
Caldari Tritanium Science and Research
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Posted - 2009.04.30 14:50:00 -
[4]
My guess is about a bil isk, or within 10% of the price of a maraudar (IE, major isk inflation could push that higher, which would be visible in the cost of T2 items)
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Merchant Queen
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Posted - 2009.04.30 15:56:00 -
[5]
actually, you could get a tengu with sbsystems for about a bil right now, 1.5 bil it'll be the right subsystems, not just the cheapest ones. If you can build it yourself, it'll be even cheaper even now. And the BIG difference from T2 is that you can in theory get all the stuff needed by yourself. You are not depending on a monopolised and limited supply of moonmats. You need salvage - go shoot some sleepers. You need polymers - go mine some gas. You need stuff for reverse eng - go do some radar and magnet sites. All the infrastructure needed for research and production can be handled by 1 wormhole POS.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.04.30 16:05:00 -
[6]
Umm you do realize that you sorta need a POS for the polymer reaction right?
That sorta throws a kink into the whole build it yourself like a T1 project. |
SencneS
Amarr Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.04.30 16:51:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Umm you do realize that you sorta need a POS for the polymer reaction right?
That sorta throws a kink into the whole build it yourself like a T1 project.
And to get the BPC, AND to build the components.. The production chain is VERY long, my guess is CCP listened to us all when we begged for... More in depth production chains, each requiring their own skills and multiple components :)
Amarr for Life |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.04.30 17:05:00 -
[8]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Umm you do realize that you sorta need a POS for the polymer reaction right?
That sorta throws a kink into the whole build it yourself like a T1 project.
And to get the BPC, AND to build the components.. The production chain is VERY long, my guess is CCP listened to us all when we begged for... More in depth production chains, each requiring their own skills and multiple components :)
I think this sums it up nicely that T3 production chain is no laughing matter |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.04.30 17:07:00 -
[9]
Ohhh yeah and one of those POS sites has to be anchored in low or null security. |
SencneS
Amarr Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.04.30 19:01:00 -
[10]
Edited by: SencneS on 30/04/2009 19:03:41
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Umm you do realize that you sorta need a POS for the polymer reaction right?
That sorta throws a kink into the whole build it yourself like a T1 project.
And to get the BPC, AND to build the components.. The production chain is VERY long, my guess is CCP listened to us all when we begged for... More in depth production chains, each requiring their own skills and multiple components :)
I think this sums it up nicely that T3 production chain is no laughing matter
I've been working on a Visio Sheet with a much better path and encompasses everything and what you can do with what etc.
It's half done. But here is another one.
Amarr for Life |
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.04.30 19:09:00 -
[11]
Originally by: SencneS
I've been working on a Visio Sheet with a much better path and encompasses everything and what you can do with what etc.
It's half done. But here is another one.
I like that one much better |
Attrezzo Pox
Amarr Navy of Xoc Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.04.30 21:42:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Evee Amine With a production line so complex, where do you think the price will level off? I'd like to hear from people involved in tech 3 production, although anyone's opinion is welcomed
My uneducated Guess: Looking at the actual hulls, it appears the price is leveling off at about 600 mil. Using Jita prices the price to build a hull is around 425 mil, not including reverse engineering costs. Tengu's are the exception to the hulls, and are going for around 450 for whatever reason. Possibly a lot of resellers? Sub system prices are rather bouncy, so who the hell knows where they're going to end up. I'm not willing to venture a guess.
At this point, I don't see hull prices going down any lower. Considering the amount of effort it takes to produce tech 3 people want a decent amount reward for doing so, hence the still high prices. But if prices stay this high, how long will demand last? Tech 3 is still new so lots of people are buying for the "shiny" factor, but as that wears off people will be less willing to pay the high costs of tech 3. This in turn means running wormholes will yield less return, and more people will stop running them. This will eventually turn the tech 3 market into a low volume special interest market of sorts, with very few people buying tech 3 or running wormholes.
Couldn't disagree more. Prices for TIII cruisers will be pushed down to (artificially or otherwise) to about 200mil without modules (my guess) eventually. Whether CCP will make sleepers "invade" empire, or wormholes will drop more or the production aspects are tweaked this is what will happen. Because you don't bring a shiny new ship and development system into a game to set it aside in the database to rot as useless stats and unfinished work. They'll be slightly more expensive than tII at some point. Mark my words. The strat cruiser is intended to be the everything ship. You start with a hull and you make it into what you want. These were intended to be sold like hotcakes and CCP will get them to a price to encourage that come hell or high water.
It's literally a time to place your bets because if things don't change CCP will change them. The safe thing is not to touch it as a trader unless you have a for sure route to exploit.
Most things will will start high now and be pushed down later so obviously sell those quick. There will be a few things now though that aren't used much and aren't dropped often and when T3 cruisers become what they're intended to become these things will sell like crazy.
If you're going to horde things I'd horde the "trit" of these ships. That's probably the only market that will see appreciable gain and acceptable risk.
*-------------------------* PoX IS Eve!!! BOOM!!! |
Josehpine
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Posted - 2009.05.01 17:58:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Evee Amine Using Jita prices the price to build a hull is around 425 mil, not including reverse engineering costs.
dude, do the math again, but this time taking into account that most manufacturers also make their own components, and then you know why they sell at 450 in jita
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.01 18:01:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Attrezzo Pox
If you're going to horde things I'd horde the "trit" of these ships. That's probably the only market that will see appreciable gain and acceptable risk.
I agree with your assertion that drop rates will be tweaked and changed as more T3 hulls are introduced, since we know this is not the first and only dev phase of T3.
I will say this however, of all the things that go into T3, production cycle, drop rates, etc.. the one thing that is in the hands of most and has the highest risk associated to it is actually polymers.
Ergo, gas clouds are going to be the choke point for anything T3 |
Evee Amine
Alsatia Industries
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Posted - 2009.05.03 01:24:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Josehpine
Originally by: Evee Amine Using Jita prices the price to build a hull is around 425 mil, not including reverse engineering costs.
dude, do the math again, but this time taking into account that most manufacturers also make their own components, and then you know why they sell at 450 in jita
if you can sell the mats for more then the ship selling the ship doesn't make sense now does it? Materials you produce yourself are not free. There's like 1093482039481049532084132491092830192384 and a half threads that discuss this.
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Josehpine
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Posted - 2009.05.03 08:54:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Evee Amine
Originally by: Josehpine
Originally by: Evee Amine Using Jita prices the price to build a hull is around 425 mil, not including reverse engineering costs.
dude, do the math again, but this time taking into account that most manufacturers also make their own components, and then you know why they sell at 450 in jita
if you can sell the mats for more then the ship selling the ship doesn't make sense now does it? Materials you produce yourself are not free. There's like 1093482039481049532084132491092830192384 and a half threads that discuss this.
i know i know, but obviously that doesnt stop people from doing it.
guess its time to send some t3 ships to the reprocessing plant
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Arushia
Nova Labs New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.06 04:51:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Ergo, gas clouds are going to be the choke point for anything T3
The ever-increasing prices of Neurovisual Input Matrix and Melted Nanoribbons say otherwise.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.06 12:18:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Arushia
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Ergo, gas clouds are going to be the choke point for anything T3
The ever-increasing prices of Neurovisual Input Matrix and Melted Nanoribbons say otherwise.
its still a drop rate item, something that can be farmed with more effort put into it.
Only so many gas clouds will spawn in any given location at any given time. |
SencneS
Amarr Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.05.06 12:50:00 -
[19]
Being a supplier of T3 materials I've deliberately pulled all our orders and halted selling T3 salvage.
Find the reason why and you'll win too :)
Amarr for Life |
SencneS
Amarr Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.05.06 13:06:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Originally by: Arushia
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Ergo, gas clouds are going to be the choke point for anything T3
The ever-increasing prices of Neurovisual Input Matrix and Melted Nanoribbons say otherwise.
its still a drop rate item, something that can be farmed with more effort put into it.
Only so many gas clouds will spawn in any given location at any given time.
Duel POSTING :)
While your assessment is true the Gas Clouds spawn rate is much higher then say Mag/Radar sites. We've come across a total of 4 systems now in the last 2 weeks in which there were between 11 and 17 Gas sites. Each system we enter has at least 2 Gas sites. Where as the Grav site is on the decline, not surprising though, with 180 asteroids in a single belt representing tens of million of meters in size, and valued at multiple billions. Where as the general gas site is worth maybe 100mil at current market price.
In relationship to the above post, the value of the sites are in reverse order compaired to normal exploration in known space.
Grav has the most value, but worse logistics. Encounters are by far the second most valuable with very easy logistics. LADAR sites are next, no doubt about it, and reasonable hauler logistics. RADAR Sites would probably due to the Datacores value. Mag sites which are the hardest to scan down (Smallest sig) and contain the wrecks in which it'll be impossible to have T3 without some sort of BPC are the lowest value.
The Mag sites also are some of the more difficult to run because of sleeper spawns. Mag sites in Basic W-Space are mostly worthless, however in Dangerous or Deadly you need some serious firepower and tanking ability to withstand the assault from the sleepers.
What is ironic is the salvage and loot from those sleepers is by far worth more then the items you'll collect from the cans, go figure
Amarr for Life |
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.06 13:09:00 -
[21]
Interesting Sensec, goes to show what getting your information third party can change. I don't run em at all, just process the materials at this point.
I'll now go eat my shoe |
SencneS
Amarr Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.05.06 13:23:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Interesting SencneS, goes to show what getting your information third party can change. I don't run em at all, just process the materials at this point.
I'll now go eat my shoe
With an organized fleet though you can farm a single Mag site in about 10 minutes, they are never very large even in Deadly space, so your source may be considering their size.
Some sites spawn maybe 1500 units of gas, which when converted turns into 100 units of polymers. It's down sampled rather then up sampled like T2 and Complex reactions.
100 units of Moon goo from two moons, makes 200 units of simple reaction, which when mixed with another 200 units of another simple reaction makes 10,000 units of complex reaction.
Gas and Polymers are down sampled, but I know you already know that. :)
For the rest of people and for the sake of information,
Some Polymers eat a lot of gas and produce a small quantity of polymers. For example, I believe one uses 400 units of gas and produces 60 units of Polymers. This means Gas should always be of high value because of it's consumption rate.
We just need to get people to want T3 ships :)
Amarr for Life |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.06 13:27:00 -
[23]
Originally by: SencneS
With an organized fleet though you can farm a single Mag site in about 10 minutes, they are never very large even in Deadly space, so your source may be considering their size.
Some sites spawn maybe 1500 units of gas, which when converted turns into 100 units of polymers. It's down sampled rather then up sampled like T2 and Complex reactions.
Thats more or less what I was basing it off of, that there is a loss no matter what you produce and there is a heavy time element involved in getting the gas.
Glad to see my initial reactions weren't totally unfounded.
The minute we got details about the production line and I read that the labs for gas had to be anchored in low/null I assumed from the get go that they would be the choke point. |
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