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Traska Gannel
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Posted - 2009.07.21 19:43:00 -
[1]
Hi All,
I've noticed that the trade volume in Jita of a wide variety of medium and large modules dropped by a factor of 2 or more around June 22nd. I've seen a lot of speculation about banning of macro mission runners but no official statements. Does anyone have any links to an official statement of what happened?
There are several possible alternate explanations which is why I am curious ...
a) an adjustment to the loot table probabilities for mission dropped items.
b) a large faction moving to a different trade hub.
...
Is this pattern repeated at other trade hubs?
Anyway - some examples of affected modules include (there are many more):
425mm and 350mm Railgun I
Heavy and Medium Nosferatu I
Large and Medium Energy Transfer Array I
Heavy and Medium Capacitor Booster I
Mega Pulse Laser I
...
In any case, this could be a contributing factor to the rise in mineral prices that some folks have been mentioning.
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2009.07.21 19:44:00 -
[2]
Since it happened very abrublty I say the banning theory is prolly true, as all mission loot seems affected.
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Lost Hamster
Hamster Holding Corp
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Posted - 2009.07.21 19:51:00 -
[3]
I think the banning is a real possibility. I saw similar trends in the salvage material, implants market. Prices are going up. :)
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Nadarius Chrome
Celestial Horizon Corp.
Slightly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.07.21 22:05:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Nadarius Chrome on 21/07/2009 22:06:12
I haven't seen any blue bars or dev blogs about it but the forums are talking about it as a fact. Would be nice to get some confirmation, for us paying customers at least. I would have thought CCP would be banging their drum about it tbh. |
Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2009.07.21 22:16:00 -
[5]
 Originally by: Nadarius Chrome
Edited by: Nadarius Chrome on 21/07/2009 22:06:12
I haven't seen any blue bars or dev blogs about it but the forums are talking about it as a fact. Would be nice to get some confirmation, for us paying customers at least. I would have thought CCP would be banging their drum about it tbh.
It seems to be CCP policy to not talk about macro's at all. Who knows, maybe they didn't ban thousands of them but they quit cause of the new China laws. Allthough I find that highly improbable.
But most mission loot falling about 50% in volume in a matter of about 1 day leaves little explanation than that indeed a lot of macro's have vanished.
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glas mir
Reaction Scientific
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Posted - 2009.07.21 23:08:00 -
[6]
I would think investigate large scale LP items would help in your analysis.
as I've been trading in them, feel free to use my public contract history. I would probably focus on CNRs as they spiked around the same time.
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Pasha Cracken
Caldari
Fusion Enterprises Ltd
Mostly Harmless
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Posted - 2009.07.22 06:40:00 -
[7]
I dont know if it was CCP or not, maybe it was.
HOWEVER:
I did read a week or two ago that China has banned all forms of RMT for virtual goods.
I dont have / remember the link but I do believe it was on CNN.com
Very interesting read.
-----
Are you a [SERVICE] Provider?
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Balardo
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Posted - 2009.07.22 07:39:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Pasha Cracken
Very interesting read.
Here you go:
Gold farming is legal in china
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Synth Elleta
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Posted - 2009.07.22 07:46:00 -
[9]
Something has definitely happened over the past 2 to 3 weeks.
I'm a small time trader, starting out. When I first started though I was able to sell items quite quickly in certain systems.
Now for around 2 or 3 weeks, items have been hanging around for ages and the prices are slowing dropping due to less demand.
I can only assume that these macro runners, running 23/7 must have lost ships once in a while due to some screw up in their code, maybe even a few a day. So they would have needed replacement ships and parts to get back out there and macro.
As these runners were generally cash/isk rich, they didn't care about the price they were paying for the modules, or didn't want to have to travel to far to get them.
So maybe this is why I'm seeing a slowdown in my patch.....
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RaTTuS
BIG
Libertas Fidelitas
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Posted - 2009.07.22 07:49:00 -
[10]
there will probably be no offical word,
however - since the forums have seems to have been attacked by forum post | with posts to external sites infected with key loggers and general mass bombing of the forums then I would suggest that they have hit some macro operations hard...
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RaTTuS @ InEve, Capital Prints for sale |
Kal'breth Naitalin
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Posted - 2009.07.22 13:41:00 -
[11]
Yes China farmers were cut off. Most MMORPG are trying there best to stop the farming and macroing because it inflates the market and makes it hard for new players to actually start and play this game, in effect companies lose money.
Now big factor here, I have worked in this industry for years, prices will shoot up, even sky rocket in some places on the really hard to find items. Then the market will crash as the isk that was banked is depleted.
Now the bigger picture no one has considered is the POS management. Most of the fuels bought for POS maintenance was farmed by these chinese players. It has been mention in multiple threads already. Once people relize that they can not maintain thier POS spam with fuel, what is actually going to happen? Most fuels are generated either by NPC or by farming, catching that transport NPC here or there. Those days of transport ships getting caught are going by the wayside as for the market.
In my opinion, people will actually have to start working again. Gameplay will change over the next six months if they can keep the farmers and isk sellers away. Power grabs will shrink in my opinion, and you will see less haphazard ops going on. You will see more corps and alliances getting into industry, PVP corps and alliances will fail without an heavy industrial background to mine and build.
I have seen this before, multiple times. Like I said, if they can keep the isk sellers and macro farmers away...this game is going to go thru some major changes over the next six months. Hell look, goons are already talking about conserving fuel and requiring mandatory train for thier cap pilots that only saves them 5 million isk for 60 days of training. Effects are already being seen.
Thats my $0.02
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Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
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Posted - 2009.07.22 14:17:00 -
[12]
there is no inflation in eve
- our beloved doc
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putting the gist back into logistics |
Mystical Dawn
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Posted - 2009.07.22 19:39:00 -
[13]
Look at the mineral prices 
Tritanium crashing, others exploding... Rens has mega with 4500-4600 price just 28k units, rest are over 5500...
Mex in jita is 42.64/39.19 
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.07.22 19:47:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Mystical Dawn
Look at the mineral prices
Tritanium crashing, others exploding... Rens has mega with 4500-4600 price just 28k units, rest are over 5500...
Mex in jita is 42.64/39.19
It was at 46 yesterday, speculation has driven it up likewise with mega. For sell orders expect mega to hover in and around 4900 once the zydrine pressure hits and mex to hover back in and around 39 soon here as miners switch to plag.
With people mining plag there will be an excess of pyerite on the market, I'd expect price for trit and pye to hold at current levels. |
Ta'jek
Estel Arador Corp Services
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Posted - 2009.07.22 20:06:00 -
[15]
Happened to be in Kakakela the day after the supposed ban hammer came down and noticed an absence of a large number of ravens and navy ravens piloted by toons with names like ttvsfdfsjf, ttowhefowhgfohwr, ffiwfhiwhui4 etc... same with mackinaws in systems with ice belts
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Mystical Dawn
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Posted - 2009.07.22 20:15:00 -
[16]
I also noticed massive drop in demand at Character Bazaar - nothing is getting sold.
PLEX prices has dropped, wich wasn't a surprise since banhammer to macros who were large part of their demand...
But...it seems like demand has dropped across the board. In everything basically.
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Loreen Starfire
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Posted - 2009.07.22 23:48:00 -
[17]
No demand, means prices will drop.
The fueling of POS is what is gonna sneak up and bite everyone.
Getting units from NPC 24 (example enriched uranium) at a time, LOL at that.
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Steve Thomas
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Posted - 2009.07.23 03:35:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Steve Thomas on 23/07/2009 03:36:11
Edited by: Steve Thomas on 23/07/2009 03:35:27
Originally by: Mystical Dawn
I also noticed massive drop in demand at Character Bazaar - nothing is getting sold.
PLEX prices has dropped, wich wasn't a surprise since banhammer to macros who were large part of their demand...
But...it seems like demand has dropped across the board. In everything basically.
well with CCPs new plex for passes program It looks like they decided they needed to do some emergency damage control in order to take p****s off the market, that or they were looking at Fan fare being seriously undersold.
Ok wwhy exaactly is P L E X E S a banned word?
http://fanfest.eveonline.com/plex-for-passes.html
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.*
Stop freaking worrying about why things the developerd did 5 years and more ago no longer make sence. |
Merovee
Amarr
Gorthaur Legion
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Posted - 2009.07.23 14:20:00 -
[19]
OR
We could look out side our windows.
with the good weather its hard to sit inside with a computer.
Damn wife and her honey do lists  |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.07.23 17:16:00 -
[20]
Forget June 22, you guys are behind the curve.
The real question is what happened on July 22? |
Jakob Gempel
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Posted - 2009.07.23 17:19:00 -
[21]
Theories abound on how this all went down...especially conspiracy theories.
Some say that the instant CCP found out that China had made gold/isk selling an illegal act, they decided to cut their profits from the farmers and run by terminating the farmer accounts. That way China would have no reason to possibly sue CCP for aiding their population in breaking the law. Of course, this is based on the conspiracy theory that CCP always had a list of farmer accounts but never did anything with them because CCP was getting paid for them.
Others say that China went China and just used their usual commie style Internet blocks and dumped all access to MMORPG's from China networks. POOF no more farmers.
Don't conspiracy theories make life more interesting? |
Stafen
Killer Koalas
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Posted - 2009.07.23 20:11:00 -
[22]
I did a bit of google research and I found some interesting information:
Farmer Banning
Seems like this article says that the baning came about because of the easy to follow trail left by the EBANK ISK for cash sell off. Says it may take 6 months for the farmers to recover.
Also it is good to see it is cheaper the buy ISK with PLEX these days, if a 30day plex goes for 300mil or more (not sure I can post a link to a isk store though :-( )
ISK price spike happens same time as the EVE market spike if you look at www.mmobux.com
Interesting how everything is linked together; PLEX, character transfer, mission loot, RMT.
Bottom line in my view, don't buy ISK as it really screws up a game's balance. |
Traska Gannel
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Posted - 2009.07.23 20:38:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Traska Gannel on 23/07/2009 20:43:29
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Forget June 22, you guys are behind the curve.
The real question is what happened on July 22?
How about ... the one month game suspensions issued on June 22nd came to an end? (just speculating :) ) |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.07.23 20:44:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Traska Gannel
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Forget June 22, you guys are behind the curve.
The real question is what happened on July 22?
How about ... the one month game suspension for using macros came to an end?
Smart Boy! I just wish CCP was a little smarter. |
Gypsio III
Dirty Filthy Perverts
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Posted - 2009.07.24 15:38:00 -
[25]
Have a look at the amusing collapse in demand for Wrath Cruise in Jita at that time.
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Milo Melano
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Posted - 2009.07.24 23:45:00 -
[26]
Banning Gold farmers should have decreased the cost of Plexs, not increased the cost. It looks like it did. (and the linked article above refences an increase in the $ cost of Isk which means people would give less isk for a plex)
Less Demand for plexs - gold farmers must buy plexs and getting rid of some means less buyers.
More Supply - Less alternatives to aquire Isk from illegal exchanges...more of them put out of business, which would mean more GTCs bought to aquire ISK rather than alternative illegal markets. (looking at the sales data though, it does not look like the number of GTCs sold daily changed much though)
Less ISK being pumped into the market daily due to less farming... means that if the same number of people were buying GTC's there would be less money spread across them over time.
The spike in PLex peaked in the week before the bannings and began its slide back to more historical levels after that as there was less
If gold farmers make a comeback the price of plexs should rise again, unless the overall demand for buying isk with cash goes down.
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Noskill McCheese
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.07.26 02:26:00 -
[27]
Well it only takes about a month to skill up a L4 farming raven pilot, quite a bit longer to skill a decent ice miner....
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Razza Flazza
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Posted - 2009.07.26 03:35:00 -
[28]
Isnt it entirely possible that what everyone considered a "chinese isk farmer" was, in fact, an alliance or five that needed cash for wars? Was there not an end to a major war just recently?
To that same point it seems entirely possible that a good chunk of reason why prices for certain items (like trit)have dropped substantially is because they are not being inflated by those who have the capital to do so. In several regions the buy orders have dropped to sub mineral value... even with the drop in mineral prices.While it seems possible that the manipulators were indeed "isk farmers", there is no logically necessary reason to assume so.
It would seem that IF CCP went to town with the banhammer, they would definately be beating thier chests, since it would win them kudos points from thier fan...err...customer base.
Thats my .02 ISK
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glas mir
Reaction Scientific
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Posted - 2009.07.26 05:38:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Razza Flazza
Isnt it entirely possible that what everyone considered a "chinese isk farmer" was, in fact, an alliance or five that needed cash for wars? Was there not an end to a major war just recently?
I don't understand what you are saying? You think a bunch of major alliances are selling off large stocks of implants and LP items and suddenly not buying large quantities of wrath cruise missiles?
CCP doesn't have to beat there chests about it. Often in the fight against online game cheating you want to give as little information as possible, in order not to give away how you track down such things. Often you do mass bans all at once to purge the system. It looks like your hack works because you don't get banned, but really they are just logging it and logging anyone else that uses it and then banning them in one fell swoop.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.07.26 05:44:00 -
[30]
Quote:
Isnt it entirely possible that what everyone considered a "chinese isk farmer" was, in fact, an alliance or five that needed cash for wars? Was there not an end to a major war just recently?
Of course big, serious alliances *clearly* farm high sec.
*Clearly* buy lots of missiles (hint: missile boats tend to not even be allowed to be used in PvP).
*Clearly* farm the many 0.0 missions and *clearly* put all of the LP in LOLPvP Navy Ravens and implants.
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Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and
http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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