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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Dark-Rising
   |
Posted - 2009.08.24 10:35:00 -
[1]
After reading countless threads, i.e.
Linkage
about people complaining how someone ruined their happy market niche, I decided to throw this little guide together.
It's about some (not all) reasons why they do that, and why they should or should not do that.
Know Ockam and "Cui prodest?"
When something unexplainable like some unknown guy suddenly ruining your week / day / month long happy period of market niche dominance happens, you should always ask yourself WHY and WHO is going to benefit off it ("Cui prodest?" in latin, sentence made 2000 years ago exactly for these situations). Not just e-rage and make yourself laughed at on the forums.
There may be an host of reasons why someone nastily intrudes your little comfy niche.
The most obvious, in order of probability:
a) To push you out of said niche, painfully if possible. Despite what you think, they are not stupid.
b) Because he thinks / knows you are an idiot.
c) Because he is an idiot.
-
Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and
http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Dark-Rising
|
Posted - 2009.08.24 10:36:00 -
[2]
a) Is more easily said than explained. Here are some reasons why someone would bust your profits:
- He recently arrived / returned in your region and wants to gently kick you in the nuts off your "own" market and profits.
Of course he got more billions than pubic hair (!) so he'll begin with a Dark Jedi alike stranglement on the competition.
- He is an industrialist / just became industrialist and wants to dump your item FAST. In some cases traders have the advantage here, because they can buy below reprocess prices
and still have a margin. But sometimes and in some supply periods the industrialists have the upper hand and will sensibly undercut you in order to "move" / sell more items and quicker.
- He is a trader in dire need to dump his stock. In this case you should check why he does that. It might be because the guy is broke, yes. But it might also be because the guy knows something important, i.e. a soon patch nerf on said item or an heavy multi-trade hub crash of that item and now it became quite "hot" to keep in stock.
- He analyzed the market and found out that if he kicks you out he'll make a nice profit. He will leverage on his fanta-trillions to slaugther you and everyone like you (didn't they tell you that trading is some of the most hideous and rule-less PvP in EvE? No? Welcome to the carnage!). To slaughter you all he needs is to sell the usual over 9000 items at almost buy order price for some time.
Once you left, he'll relist his stuff and profit alone. When you'll come back, he'll just repeat the above.
- He is working for a newly established 0.0 alliance as broker and their nearest high sec trade hub is yours. You will probably get crushed the same way and also wardecced just in case (it's why many traders are in NPC corps) or even repeatedly suicided ganked till you leave.
- He got access to super-low minerals / items and you simply can't compete with him. Example, 10mn Afterburners II can cost 3M on sell orders (price changes over the year of course) and like 2.7M on buy orders. A guy suddenly "appears" selling a ziribillion 10mn AB IIs for 2.8M.
People quit the market, ragequit, send rage mails that the guy proudly posts everywhere to show off how pathetic they are, create emo threads about how stupid and nasty are those guys.
Never mind the guy is buying a Jump Freigther load of those Afterburners for 2M a piece in 0.0 (this is what happened to me to see) on *sell orders* and just dumps them on the high sec markets for insta-profit.
- He stacked (like I do albeit in a small scale) some hundreds
of that item during August when it costed 1M and now he resells it at 2.8M while everyone else are "flipping" the same item from 2.6M to 3M.
- He reprocessed an huge amount of minerals bought at "sub-zero" price and now can produce and sell items at impressive low prices.
- He wants you just dead and have fun thinking someone is raging about him over the interwebz.
b) He thinks you are a "vanilla trader" or the average idiot and so he attacks you with the usual methods used against such people and hopes for an attack of nerd-rage.
Notice that he is usually right, as forum e-rage threads clearly show.
The sad but true part is that the huge majority of players in every game (and also in real life) are just hopelessy bad, predictable, cheap, Darwin spared them exclusively because modern civilization negates the due course of nature. This makes so that a weak attack is usually enough to kill them off a market.
-
Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and
http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
flakeys
Distillery
Lazy is our middle name
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Posted - 2009.08.24 10:37:00 -
[3]
Edited by: flakeys on 24/08/2009 10:38:37
You forgot the number one advice:
STAY CALM 
edit: oww more to come , might not forget it then
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.08.24 10:38:00 -
[4]
c) Sometimes this happens. The guy is a vanilla trader himself, a copycat and totally careless to research the market he's going to "invade".
While this case is rare enough, there are telltales of seeing an idiot in action:
- He arrives and at day zero he slams hundreds of items out without checking the prices and volume history.
- He is a Jita monkey(tm) that is one who believes that if Jita prices are X, then everywhere in the universe the price must be X, even if the local market price was 2 x X.
- He finds a price and he WILL 0.01 isk it, even if that price made him in a loss (lemming effect).
- He believes the "wholesale dumping => moar profit" as he reads on the forums, without bothering with the detail that local markets *volume* often have a low ceiling (yeah, EvE is not a copy-pasted Jita), so you can push 1000000 items at whatever price but you won't necessarily see a corresponding sales increase.
Example of most of the above (it's easy to find many of them):
A new guy comes to the relatively small Oursulaert market. This item runs at an almost fixed daily rate, 4800 ISK pu and some hundreds items a day tops.
Does he check about the volume? Does he probe the terrain with say 1000 items to see if volume grows? No.
Does he bother asking why Jita price does not apply here? No.
In fact this is the price he (and probably another) setup:
Linkage
Volume before and after the price change:
Linkage
Notice how not only the volume did not increase, it went down! And all knew this in advance except him.
Result: he parked about 30M of stuff that is not moving at all despite losing a potential for 8M income (that is 26% of the whole stock). Notice I took a quite meaningless item here, but you can find the same identical effects on T2 cruisers.
In some days he'll leave (happened for other items already) seeing he won't sell and then someone resident will buy the stuff and relist and thank him for the kind couriering over there.
Someone evil lied him about super-low-price => automatic volume => automatic ISK!
-
Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and
http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Dark-Rising
|
Posted - 2009.08.24 10:38:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/08/2009 10:42:25
What to do?
a) In this case you have to see if he's stronger than you (likely, PvP is about attacking with overhelming force for a quick and dirty win). This can be gauged by checking how many items he put on the market. If they are relatively few, you can try relist his stuff but that's probably a bait. He'll just dump triple of that in the next minute.
Having alts in multiple markets helps in this case, it's often possible to take out items here and go dump them far away, at profitable margin. Far away, because just going 5 jumps away does not work, the new price will "taint" the nearby systems quite fast, assuming the guy is not tainting it purposedly himself already.
If that proves to be impossible / you don't have stock to compete, you might check a bulk producer, get a fairly big stock and put it on the same market. By overloading the market, the demand will plummet and he (and you) will lose profit till one goes away.
A cheaper alternative, expecially if you have lots of time on your hands is "sliding pis_sage": you create 3+ very small sell orders and 0.01 ISK him relentlessy for days. The second he updates, you already relist one of your orders below his, effectively asphyxiating the hell out of him.
This works very well with those who love to drop price by 300k a re-bid because they hate 0.01 ISKing. Not only you do exactly what they hate, you also cheaply leverage 5-6 items killing his hundreds items.
b) If he thinks you are an idiot, you can pretend to be one. If he's not a 23/7 no lifer you can add him to the address book. When you get notified he went offline you can take out his stuff or 0.01 ISK it till he relogs. He'll see he did not sell anything and will probably undercut even more ending with buyable stuff to resell elsewhere.
c) If he is an idiot and recklessy put all that stuff out there, you can try and wait him out. In smaller markets you'll notice how markets sport strong levels of trend support. This means, the locals don't want to get involved in price crashing and will often just sit out while the guy sells the stuff. Now, if the volume rises, you are boned. If not (like in the pictures above), he'll probably get bored at having underpriced stock parked doing nothing and will possibly leave in 1 week or 2. Normal sales operations can restart.
Instead, if volume rises a lot, it means he was not *that* idiot, and maybe you should start looking in the mirror.
-
Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and
http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
flakeys
Distillery
Lazy is our middle name
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Posted - 2009.08.24 10:46:00 -
[6]
Sorry for coming halfway your thread ,
this said and on a serious note most people who go banannas here also forget the best bet is on 2 horses.Try to diverse as much as you can in both buy and sell orders.
In the case someone comes and freaks up an item of yours you will not 'feel' the isk sink a lot and have to go to the forums to make a post about this.You can just give it a few days/weeks before taking action.
Think ahead of what can freak up your market and take measures instead of going freaky when it happens.
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Bret Caliaro
Fortuna inc.
Leather Rose Syndicate
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Posted - 2009.08.24 11:52:00 -
[7]
This thread makes me happy
_________________________________________________
I'm a so very lazy, so I play smart not hard. |
small chimp
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Posted - 2009.08.24 13:08:00 -
[8]
Edited by: small chimp on 24/08/2009 13:11:15
yes but that would only benefit the customer
with cartels we would get more profits!
Bu but sometimes there is just too much pressure to lower the high prices!
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Hexentanz
Amarr
The Eden Trading International Corporation
Hansa Teutonica
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Posted - 2009.08.24 13:32:00 -
[9]
 Originally by: Bret Caliaro
This thread makes me happy
/sign!!
Vaerah Vahrokha, nice work 
------
TETIC
The Eden Trading International Corporation
www.tetic.ch / German Trading Corporation |
Valnurana
Preta Light Industries
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Posted - 2009.08.24 14:15:00 -
[10]
Excellent thread.
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Ji Sama
Caldari
Tash-Murkon Prime Industries
Sex Drugs And Rock'N'Roll
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Posted - 2009.08.24 14:22:00 -
[11]
as alwyas you are sharp and keen :)
good work vera :p
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rValdez5987
Amarr
Imperial Guard.
Soldiers of Solitude
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Posted - 2009.08.24 18:27:00 -
[12]
Posting to confirm that I deliberately crash markets at any opportunity.
For me competition in industry is just market pvp. The huge profits I bring in are just a bonus  |
Sunny Pheebu
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Posted - 2009.08.25 02:56:00 -
[13]
Originally by: flakeys
You forgot the number one advice:
STAY CALM
edit: oww more to come , might not forget it then
I prefer:
DON'T PANIC
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Rotnac
Caldari
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.08.25 06:06:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
He is working for a newly established 0.0 alliance as broker and their nearest high sec trade hub is yours. You will probably get crushed the same way and also wardecced just in case (it's why many traders are in NPC corps) or even repeatedly suicided ganked till you leave.
Also, especially for people in the moon mineral market or related markets, never underestimate the effect of an 0.0 alliance that needs cash fast. Big alliances will occasionally dump huge stockpiles on the market at firesale prices for the sole reason of trying to sell a lot quick. Especially happens after large cap losses and the like. This will even be done without any concern for market timing or profitability - purely with the thought of "we need liquid isk NOW".
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
He got access to super-low minerals / items and you simply can't compete with him. Example, 10mn Afterburners II can cost 3M on sell orders (price changes over the year of course) and like 2.7M on buy orders. A guy suddenly "appears" selling a ziribillion 10mn AB IIs for 2.8M.
People quit the market, ragequit, send rage mails that the guy proudly posts everywhere to show off how pathetic they are, create emo threads about how stupid and nasty are those guys.
Never mind the guy is buying a Jump Freigther load of those Afterburners for 2M a piece in 0.0 (this is what happened to me to see) on *sell orders* and just dumps them on the high sec markets for insta-profit.
You might be surprised how disconnected some 0.0 markets are from Jita. While trit has apparently been trading in Jita for, what 3.8pu, in Jita, its been 3pu ot where I am. Some of us like to cash in on these disparities.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Dark-Rising
|
Posted - 2009.08.25 07:59:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Rotnac
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
He is working for a newly established 0.0 alliance as broker and their nearest high sec trade hub is yours. You will probably get crushed the same way and also wardecced just in case (it's why many traders are in NPC corps) or even repeatedly suicided ganked till you leave.
Also, especially for people in the moon mineral market or related markets, never underestimate the effect of an 0.0 alliance that needs cash fast. Big alliances will occasionally dump huge stockpiles on the market at firesale prices for the sole reason of trying to sell a lot quick. Especially happens after large cap losses and the like. This will even be done without any concern for market timing or profitability - purely with the thought of "we need liquid isk NOW".
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
He got access to super-low minerals / items and you simply can't compete with him. Example, 10mn Afterburners II can cost 3M on sell orders (price changes over the year of course) and like 2.7M on buy orders. A guy suddenly "appears" selling a ziribillion 10mn AB IIs for 2.8M.
People quit the market, ragequit, send rage mails that the guy proudly posts everywhere to show off how pathetic they are, create emo threads about how stupid and nasty are those guys.
Never mind the guy is buying a Jump Freigther load of those Afterburners for 2M a piece in 0.0 (this is what happened to me to see) on *sell orders* and just dumps them on the high sec markets for insta-profit.
You might be surprised how disconnected some 0.0 markets are from Jita. While trit has apparently been trading in Jita for, what 3.8pu, in Jita, its been 3pu ot where I am. Some of us like to cash in on these disparities.
I am not surprised, I get trit at 2.2 pu...
-
Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and
http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
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