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PLEX - 285m and going down

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Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.09.06 23:01:00 - [31] Originally by: Magnetic Wolf so what do you think this means? Things going back to "NORMAL". _ Info about our corp \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
Arresi Amarr	Posted - 2009.09.07 04:49:00 - [32] So it's now cheaper to buy game time by buying isk from an isk seller then buying PLEX lol... That is if you risk getting your isk reversed by GM and/or credit card theft. Actually the good, legit isk sellers have a guarantee where they will refund you if a GM reverse your transaction. And it seems GMs crackdown periodically (a set pattern) so you know when it's the safest to buy isk.
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2009.09.07 07:22:00 - [33] Originally by: Arresi So it's now cheaper to buy game time by buying isk from an isk seller then buying PLEX lol... That is if you risk getting your isk reversed by GM and/or credit card theft. Actually the good, legit isk sellers have a guarantee where they will refund you if a GM reverse your transaction. And it seems GMs crackdown periodically (a set pattern) so you know when it's the safest to buy isk. They will get ya eventually if you buy isk. Might not be during the few weeks you can reverse the transaction thru your credit card company anyway but they WILL get ya. And it will not be fun experience sitting in the minus for all the isk you might have bought over the years. And there is no good, legit isk sellers. All they care for is getting your credit card details.
Kuolematon Space Perverts and Forum Warriors United	Posted - 2009.09.07 08:01:00 - [34] I just bought 30 PLEXes for 285m each "The Amarr are the tanking and ganking floating rods of ~~gold~~crap"
DarthCaboose	Posted - 2009.09.07 08:14:00 - [35] I'm pretty sure that, based on basic economics, that the price is dropping because there's way more people willing to sell PLEX than buy them. With everybody jumping on the real-money to ISK gravy train, it shouldn't be a surprise that more competition for those few PLEX buyers = lower prices. The phenomenon of PLEX rising at the start is very similar to every other new item introduction in EVE (new rig sizes from Apoc 1.5, anyone?) Unless CCP really manages to do well in attracting more people to play EVE, be it now or during Fanfest, the PLEX price will go down even further. Aside from attracting fresh meat, the other way to see PLEX prices go up again is if CCP; in some way, shape or form, puts a new change in that allows newer players to make more ISK easier. I remember reading Eve's First Quarter Report for 2009 showing that the vast majority of players (80%+) do not have the ISK on hand to buy a PLEX. Sure this figure is kinda iffy, but if CCP enabled even a fraction of those players to make more ISK through gameplay changes, then demand for PLEX (and hence, PLEX prices) would go up! Additionally, if ISK becomes easier to make, then players buying PLEXs would charge more money for them (an upward shift to that supply curve)!
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2009.09.07 09:36:00 - [36] Originally by: DarthCaboose Aside from attracting fresh meat, the other way to see PLEX prices go up again is if CCP; in some way, shape or form, puts a new change in that allows newer players to make more ISK easier. I remember reading Eve's First Quarter Report for 2009 showing that the vast majority of players (80%+) do not have the ISK on hand to buy a PLEX. Sure this figure is kinda iffy, but if CCP enabled even a fraction of those players to make more ISK through gameplay changes, then demand for PLEX (and hence, PLEX prices) would go up! Additionally, if ISK becomes easier to make, then players buying PLEXs would charge more money for them (an upward shift to that supply curve)! I would say that the amount of liquid isk at hand might not be good indication of ability to buy PLEX. Granted it's sort of best we have. I for example would be quite capable of buying PLEX should I so desire (and I sometimes do) however I'm almost always below 'threshhold' value in liquid isk terms. Also I suspect that many people who would be isk wise capable of buying PLEX will not do so as it's more effective for them to get real money and pay subscription thru that than spend X hours in game grinding isk for the same purpose. By the same logic most people with jobs from developed countries would be better off selling PLEX to fund their fun than grinding isk X hours for that, altho there is also kind of emotional barrier in there. Can't comment on people on average, but for me it tastes like 'cheating' so I am not willing to sell PLEX for isk even tho I would be capable of doing that. Paying for extra accounts with credit card was already small emotional barrier for me to cross and left slight nagging feeling in my head. On the other hand making PLEX price to go up by increasing isk amount in game is certainly possibility, however I would argue that this would be just 'PLEX inflation' same way as gold goes 'up' in dollars if fed's are running their printing press as fast as they can. Then again it might not be as catastrophic in EVE as it might end up in RL, as in EVE many isk sinks are NPC supplied and have very rigid price corridors. Would just mean that everyone and his dog would have titan skillbooks in their head 'bcos it's just so damn cheap' should we ever get into runaway increase of liquid isk available. In the end it's more emotionally fulfilling to buy that carrier skillbook or BPO with the isk you have made yourself ingame than with the swing of credit card for me. It's not 'just a game'. It's more like a hobby.
Kerfira	Posted - 2009.09.07 12:00:00 - [37] Originally by: DarthCaboose Aside from attracting fresh meat, the other way to see PLEX prices go up again is if CCP; in some way, shape or form, puts a new change in that allows newer players to make more ISK easier. This may bring up the ISK price of PLEX, but their VALUE will stay as it is... Value in EVE is not determined by ISK price, but by the effort put into acquiring something. This is what determines the relative price of everything in the EVE universe.... If you make it easier to get ISK, you'll just increase average prices by about the same percentage... You'll not have created more demand for any in-game resources, and you'll not have increased the rate of other in-game resources either. The only thing that'll happen is that the in-game resources will have their ISK conversion price raised... Example: Very VERY simplified EVE universe 1 Tritanium and 1 ISK in game: Tritanium price is 1 ISK 1 Tritanium and 2 ISK in game: Tritanium price is 2 ISK CCP intervention is (extremely) unlikely as they seem to understand this. Eventually PLEX will settle again at their 'natural' level (whatever that may be). It'll probably take a number of months though given the apparent glut of PLEX on the market and in players hangars.... If the majority of PLEX were in fact bought by farmers, then PLEX will probably have QUITE a price adjustment downwards. I wouldn't discount seeing PLEX as low as 150m within the next year, provided the farmers doesn't return.... Originally by: CCP Wrangler EVE isn't designed to just look like a cold, dark and harsh world, it's designed to be a cold, dark and harsh world.
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2009.09.07 12:52:00 - [38] Edited by: Carniflex on 07/09/2009 12:52:14 Originally by: Kerfira Originally by: DarthCaboose Aside from attracting fresh meat, the other way to see PLEX prices go up again is if CCP; in some way, shape or form, puts a new change in that allows newer players to make more ISK easier. This may bring up the ISK price of PLEX, but their VALUE will stay as it is... Value in EVE is not determined by ISK price, but by the effort put into acquiring something. This is what determines the relative price of everything in the EVE universe.... It's true that the value as in amount of effort that it takes to make this items will not change, however it's still worth pointing out that most isk sinks in EVE are NPC driven and thus does not 'feel' inflation that in turn would mean that you would get certain NPC good/service for lesser amount of effort (Skillsbooks, T1 BPO's, NPC trade goods, Insurance, etc). So if PLEX price in isk is going up people will get more of those 'inflation free' services for the same 35 dollars they spend. Ofc assuming that isk supply would be increased (causing PLEX price in isk go up) it would also take smaller amount of grinding hours to get whatever you want to get so ratio between grind/PLEX would indeed be roughly the same.
Xtreem Gallente Knockaround Guys Inc.	Posted - 2009.09.07 13:15:00 - [39] as said already, alot of the demand for plex died when the RMT accounts got banned. good news for plex is, they are coming back (been noticing more new npc corp ravens starting to appear) but that of course if bad for eve overall. demand will rise again with the come back of the macros, then drop again once they are banned again. and this will be a regular cycle, as I don't see the macro ravens giving up for at least a few ban cycles.
Kerfira	Posted - 2009.09.07 14:05:00 - [40] Originally by: Carniflex It's true that the value as in amount of effort that it takes to make this items will not change, however it's still worth pointing out that most isk sinks in EVE are NPC driven and thus does not 'feel' inflation that in turn would mean that you would get certain NPC good/service for lesser amount of effort (Skillsbooks, T1 BPO's, NPC trade goods, Insurance, etc). So if PLEX price in isk is going up people will get more of those 'inflation free' services for the same 35 dollars they spend. True to some extent, but where does most players ISK go? They go to other players for minerals or other raw materials (usually in some built form) or otherwise limited items. The major ISK sinks are later in the chain, primarily I'd guess in POS and their modules/fuel, plus maybe high-end BPO's. The minerals/materials and limited items will not have had any increase in amounts, and the ISK sinks has not gotten bigger, so logically the resource limited items just get more expensive. Too much money, things get more expensive. As mineral prices are currently hitting the 'basket floor' set by insurance, I think that EVE actually has too few ISK and too many minerals. This might need some balancing, but the solution is probably to reduce minerals created, not buff ISK earnings. Originally by: CCP Wrangler EVE isn't designed to just look like a cold, dark and harsh world, it's designed to be a cold, dark and harsh world.
Taram Caldar GK inc.	Posted - 2009.09.07 22:40:00 - [41] they'll continue to drop in price till the supply/demand discrepancy equalizes. They've been overpriced for quite a long time now. Want a sig made? Contact me in game. Click my sig to see samples
Agent Known Apotheosis of Virtue	Posted - 2009.09.08 01:25:00 - [42] Would the price manipulation a few months back have something to do with it? I mean, Fanfest kept the prices around that point for a while, but then they started falling. I know they were ~300 mil each early this year...but still.
Arresi Amarr	Posted - 2009.09.08 02:07:00 - [43] Edited by: Arresi on 08/09/2009 02:07:37 Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Arresi So it's now cheaper to buy game time by buying isk from an isk seller then buying PLEX lol... That is if you risk getting your isk reversed by GM and/or credit card theft. Actually the good, legit isk sellers have a guarantee where they will refund you if a GM reverse your transaction. And it seems GMs crackdown periodically (a set pattern) so you know when it's the safest to buy isk. They will get ya eventually if you buy isk. Might not be during the few weeks you can reverse the transaction thru your credit card company anyway but they WILL get ya. And it will not be fun experience sitting in the minus for all the isk you might have bought over the years. And there is no good, legit isk sellers. All they care for is getting your credit card details. Right just like how the RIAA is gonna eventually get you for that song you downloaded in 2001... In real life it doesn't work that way. What CCP is going to do is crackdown on random isk buyers/sellers to try to scare off the general player population; it's no different than RIAA. Hence that's why CCP does a crackdown every few weeks or so (don't quote me on that haha), so if you know when the last crackdown was, you have a lower chance of getting your transaction reversed. And trust me there are good, legit isk sellers. Sure there are some companies whose staff can barely speak English and they have only been operating for about a month, but others include years of experience and have a great customer support (or so I hear); the latter tend to be a litt more expensive of course lol.
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2009.09.08 03:57:00 - [44] Originally by: Arresi Right just like how the RIAA is gonna eventually get you for that song you downloaded in 2001... In real life it doesn't work that way. What CCP is going to do is crackdown on random isk buyers/sellers to try to scare off the general player population; it's no different than RIAA. Hence that's why CCP does a crackdown every few weeks or so (don't quote me on that haha), so if you know when the last crackdown was, you have a lower chance of getting your transaction reversed. And trust me there are good, legit isk sellers. Sure there are some companies whose staff can barely speak English and they have only been operating for about a month, but others include years of experience and have a great customer support (or so I hear); the latter tend to be a litt more expensive of course lol. There is quite relevant difference between RL and EVE. In RL you can't log all transactions, in EVE you can. Now if you do it only once you might get away with it, if it's habit you will get caught eventually and when they take a good look at you they will find eventually previous cases also. Ofc until this has do be done purely by hand the effectivity of it will not be stellar, altho I imagine CCP would already have clever scripts running highlighting 'interesting' transactions for GM's to investigate. Should they get really clever script going one day they can actually get ya for that bought isk on 2004. If you decide to hope this will not happen then this can't be helped, altho I do have gut feeling we might see one day another of those posts in genereal section where someone is complaining how his 'friend' who is rather good at markets got dropped in negative 'out of blue'. So far in every case it has turned out ofc that those 'friends' have been isk buyers.
Arresi Amarr	Posted - 2009.09.09 01:41:00 - [45] Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Arresi Right just like how the RIAA is gonna eventually get you for that song you downloaded in 2001... In real life it doesn't work that way. What CCP is going to do is crackdown on random isk buyers/sellers to try to scare off the general player population; it's no different than RIAA. Hence that's why CCP does a crackdown every few weeks or so (don't quote me on that haha), so if you know when the last crackdown was, you have a lower chance of getting your transaction reversed. And trust me there are good, legit isk sellers. Sure there are some companies whose staff can barely speak English and they have only been operating for about a month, but others include years of experience and have a great customer support (or so I hear); the latter tend to be a litt more expensive of course lol. There is quite relevant difference between RL and EVE. In RL you can't log all transactions, in EVE you can. Now if you do it only once you might get away with it, if it's habit you will get caught eventually and when they take a good look at you they will find eventually previous cases also. Ofc until this has do be done purely by hand the effectivity of it will not be stellar, altho I imagine CCP would already have clever scripts running highlighting 'interesting' transactions for GM's to investigate. Should they get really clever script going one day they can actually get ya for that bought isk on 2004. If you decide to hope this will not happen then this can't be helped, altho I do have gut feeling we might see one day another of those posts in genereal section where someone is complaining how his 'friend' who is rather good at markets got dropped in negative 'out of blue'. So far in every case it has turned out ofc that those 'friends' have been isk buyers. In a somewhat related topic, this discussion reminds me of the issue with prostitution. Selling is legal, sex is legal, but selling sex isn't legal! Anyway, dating for sex is also legal, but as soon as you actually hand over cold cash then it becomes illegal. So how does this have anything to do with EVE, you might wonder. Well if a person is really generous and decides to give you 10 billion isk, is that legal? How about if she gives you 10 billion isk for your Playstation 3? What if she gives you 10 billion isk for sex??
TYCONDEROGA Amarr The Inf1dels IDLE EMPIRE	Posted - 2009.09.09 02:20:00 - [46] buy buybuy buy!!! JIM CRAMER MAD MONEY OMFG!!!
Neme Nishta	Posted - 2009.09.09 04:22:00 - [47] Originally by: Arresi What if she gives you 10 billion isk for sex?? Then "she" is probably a "he".
proudalt	Posted - 2009.09.09 07:23:00 - [48] The Problem with PLEX is, it has no ingame value. It needs no ingametime to be "mined" or ressources you have to buy ingame. Its just a trade good, that cant be traded... You cant reprocess it to get a mineral value or insure it and blow it up.... Its purely based on demand. And most ppl dont want to grind 300m isk and than buy a plex for it. they want a shiny battleship or 2 hacs. If i could not afford to play the game i would never use my hard earned isk for plex. better stop a month of playing until i have enough RL money to start playing again with my hardly earned 300mil.... Good thing is, if the plex goes below 250mio, im gonna buy 1 or 2 myself, cause thats a good price...
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2009.09.09 07:32:00 - [49] Originally by: Arresi Well if a person is really generous and decides to give you 10 billion isk, is that legal? How about if she gives you 10 billion isk for your Playstation 3? What if she gives you 10 billion isk for sex?? If that generous person happens to be identified as RMT character then CCP will not trouble their head with legal dilemmas. They will drop you 10 bil in negative regardless of fairytales about friendly donations and if you have done it on several times or have already outstanding warning they will add on top of that short forced vacation from EVE to have time to think about it. Extending that vacation to be permanent if they get you sitting your paw in cookie yar and not caring about repeated warnings. It's also worth remembering CCP does not ban characters. They ban people. So even if you do nothing illegal for 5 years, but CCP manages to identify you as someone with permanent ban on him from the past they will remove all your identified characters without blinking twice.
Krathos Morpheus Gallente Legion Infernal	Posted - 2009.09.09 11:27:00 - [50] Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Arresi Well if a person is really generous and decides to give you 10 billion isk, is that legal? How about if she gives you 10 billion isk for your Playstation 3? What if she gives you 10 billion isk for sex?? If that generous person happens to be identified as RMT character then CCP will not trouble their head with legal dilemmas. They will drop you 10 bil in negative regardless of fairytales about friendly donations and if you have done it on several times or have already outstanding warning they will add on top of that short forced vacation from EVE to have time to think about it. Extending that vacation to be permanent if they get you sitting your paw in cookie yar and not caring about repeated warnings. It's also worth remembering CCP does not ban characters. They ban people. So even if you do nothing illegal for 5 years, but CCP manages to identify you as someone with permanent ban on him from the past they will remove all your identified characters without blinking twice. Exactly, they don't need to find you, they find your supplier and then you pay the consecuences. On CCP not banning characters but people, are you sure of that? Remember about Ricdic alts. The illegal RMT isks has to always be cheaper than the legal PLEX for isk to be able to compete because it has the risk of being removed, I see nothing extraordinary there and if anybody thinks that it is the same buying isks that can be removed by a GM and buying isks that can't, the only thing I can say to them is that I hope facts and removal will help you understand the difference, since your intelect seems to fail seeing it. EVE Knowledge
Useful Alt	Posted - 2009.09.09 12:17:00 - [51] Mommy, I want X to be Y price so I can do XY with my new Y since I got X to sell. sandbox anyone?
Trigos Trilobi Sebiestor tribe	Posted - 2009.09.09 12:23:00 - [52] Originally by: Arresi Right just like how the RIAA is gonna eventually get you for that song you downloaded in 2001... In real life it doesn't work that way. What CCP is going to do is crackdown on random isk buyers/sellers to try to scare off the general player population; it's no different than RIAA. Hence that's why CCP does a crackdown every few weeks or so (don't quote me on that haha), so if you know when the last crackdown was, you have a lower chance of getting your transaction reversed. Don't be naive, the public crackdown is just the end result, the real investigations go on for a looong time before that. I'd assume the people and scripts used for this will be working regular hours, not just few days when CCP needs a PR stunt, gathering and analyzing information. It makes more sense that way, no-one cares if you post "we banned 3 isk buyers and 1 seller today!" on the news page every day, they'll still be whining that there's 10000 more on the loose, but gathering information for 6 months and then banning 5000 at once is better PR. It's also more efficient, if you just ban individuals every time you find one out, you'll have serious trouble affecting the RMT business on organization level. Better to take your time observing and establishing links between accounts, people and the business and hit them hard once you think you have enough information to seriously hurt their business. Same goes for bots hacks etc which are often connected with the business, if you ban individual people and block/fix every bot and hack as soon as you find out, you'll just hasten the evolution. Typically there's a new, working version around in just days, maybe even hours, after previous version stops working. So, you find a bot, learn to identify it foolproof and automated, gather up enough users and then ban them at once. Again, better PR, and better deterrent; few anonymous people banned every day doesn't sound very scary, thousand people banned at once actually might make someone think twice. But yep, go on buying isk after the public beheadings if it makes you feel safer PS. Only "good, legit isk seller" is CCP. The whole business model outside CCP is based on fraud, on that basis it's very naive to count on any guarantees, sweet-talking customer service or advertising. If CCP happens to ban a good part of a business and -isk a lot of their customers, you really think they're going to respect their guarantee and cough up tens of thousands of euros instead of just vanishing and starting out with a new name the next day? The differences in national laws and the lack of meaningful international legislation around the matter also pretty much guarantees your chances of getting your cash back through legal means are slim to none.
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2009.09.09 18:59:00 - [53] Originally by: Krathos Morpheus On CCP not banning characters but people, are you sure of that? Remember about Ricdic alts. I am. Have seen it happen to one corp thief that used things that get you permabanned to do it. We managed to identify his new chars he created on new accounts after getting banned, he gloated a bit in convo and confirmed he is same guy. We petitioned and he got his new chars also permabanned. On Ricdic thing - dunno. Guess we do not know all the details.
Arresi Amarr	Posted - 2009.09.10 04:35:00 - [54] Edited by: Arresi on 10/09/2009 04:35:54 EDIT: sigh lost my wall of text counter-argument. Oh well.
Chantilly Layce Proper Villains	Posted - 2009.09.10 11:28:00 - [55] Originally by: Magnetic Wolf so what do you think this means? EVE Online crisis? Some manipulation? Where are the gurus who said they were gonna cost 700m a unit when the fanfest made them to get to 400m??? It means A) it's cheaper to game, and B) yet another example of don't believe everything you read from self-professed "gurus". PLEX in the 280M range is the only fact you need.
steveid Renovatio Industries Galactic-Rangers	Posted - 2009.09.10 17:10:00 - [56] theoretically a plex should be worth the amount of money you can make on a char by doing passive money making activities. Otherwise they'd be used up via account expansion. I think 285 is about right.

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