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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.01 11:08:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 01/06/2010 11:14:10 (Sorry Akita for stealing your phrase)
As we all know, when the first Tyrannis patch come out POS structures where reprocessable, and yielded T4 Planetary Materials. Many, many Cyno jammers and rapid assembly arrays where purchased and reprocessed, leading to a huge flood of relatively cheap T4 planetary materials. These could then be combined with the new POS structure blueprints to create POS structures at bargain basement prices. Outposts for 5-10 billion for example.
CCP (eventually) responded by disabling the NPC sell orders for POS components, effectively turning off the T4 Planetary Material faucet.
Since then we have seen massive demand for capital construction parts, to the point that it has become profitable to reprocess freighters to get them.
Quote: During downtime on Saturday, May 29, all NPC sell orders for starbase structures, sovereignty structures and station components were temporarily disabled. These orders will be restored temporarily on Wednesday, June 2 until Planetary Interaction is fully operational.
All that CCP have said is that the NPC orders will be switched on again tomorrow.
But will anything else happen?
- Will CCP try to unpick the T4 mats bonanza? - Is it possible to unpick? - Will the POS structures still be reprocessable tommorow? - Will they leave them reprocessable and just adjust the best ones like cyno jammers?
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Kalrand
Kalrand's POS Removal Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.01 11:16:00 -
[2]
There are two equally likely solutions, and one I think is less likely:
1) increase the final output of PI 10x for pos parts, increase the needed quantity for POS parts 10x.
2) POS parts can no longer be reprocessed (this would probably be bad long term)
3) CCP adjusts the NPC sell price of cynojammers, rapid assembly arrays, and to a different effect moon miners into something more inline with their post-PI cost. (This is far too logical for CCP to do)
I'm gambling on 1, and I hedged my bets with a bit of #3.
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.01 11:23:00 -
[3]
Oo maybe we could do some more gambling!
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Kalrand
Kalrand's POS Removal Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.01 11:39:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy Oo maybe we could do some more gambling!
Perhaps I should have said "risk reduction".
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Korenti Rels
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Posted - 2010.06.01 13:35:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy All that CCP have said is that the NPC orders will be switched on again tomorrow.
But will anything else happen?
- Will CCP try to unpick the T4 mats bonanza? - Is it possible to unpick? - Will the POS structures still be reprocessable tommorow? - Will they leave them reprocessable and just adjust the best ones like cyno jammers?
We cannot know exactly what will happen. But I think there are good chances that Sisi is an indicator.
Based on what was on Sisi yesterday (they patched it today but I have not yed downloaded the patch to check if something has changed) here's what will happen:
-) the structures will be again seeded for NPC selling. -) the structures (and nanopaste too) will be flagged as non-reprocessable. -) all existing P4 materials (those obtained by reprocessing structures last week) will be changed into unusable "broken" parts. For example a "Nano-Factory" will become a "Broken Nano-Factory", that cannot be used in blueprints. It is, however, reprocessable for some minerals (I did not check all of them for mineral yeld and did not compute their isk value at current mineral prices, it'll probably be negligible. In any case the important part is that they'll be OUT of the PI manufacturing loop). -) the P4 schematics output, P4 volume and P4 usage in blueprints is unchanged. -) I have no idea what the NPC prices for structures will be. Probably unchanged. -) it is unknown if the structures will be reprocessable again on the 8th. Probably not. This may become a small problem long-term. But they may decide to make them reprocessable again, say, one year from now or something like that.
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Lost Hamster
Hamster Holding Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.01 13:52:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Korenti Rels
-) it is unknown if the structures will be reprocessable again on the 8th. Probably not. This may become a small problem long-term. But they may decide to make them reprocessable again, say, one year from now or something like that.
They could remove this flag when the NPC seed have been stopped. Or they wait a month after the seed stop, and then remove the flag.
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Korenti Rels
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Posted - 2010.06.01 15:36:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Korenti Rels on 01/06/2010 15:41:10
Originally by: Lost Hamster
Originally by: Korenti Rels
-) it is unknown if the structures will be reprocessable again on the 8th. Probably not. This may become a small problem long-term. But they may decide to make them reprocessable again, say, one year from now or something like that.
They could remove this flag when the NPC seed have been stopped. Or they wait a month after the seed stop, and then remove the flag.
If the structures become seeded again tomorrow and have the same prices they always had and if what you say is true, then we are back to the original problem. Nothing stops me from buying a couple thousands cynojammers tomorrow, wait till they remove the flag and then reprocess them for extremely cheap P4s. Also a lot of people did buy cynojammers, rapid assemblies, small batteries etc. BEFORE the patch came out (or just after) and not ALL of them have been reprocessed for P4 yet. What CCP needs to do is to keep them unreprocessable long enough that the consequent economical gain is mostly compensated by the immobilization of the capital.
A speculator will be willing to invest and wait depending on: -) the perceived future valuation of P4 (the higher the more he'll wait. if it'll go as high as to keep large control tower price the same as it was, it will represent a 1250% gain, meaning you can wait for a long time). -) how long he thinks CCP will wait to make them reprocessable again, the longer they wait the better you would do investing in alternative activities.
I think CCP shall either keep them unreprocessable for about one year (my rough estimation based on "gut feeling"), or run a database check to verify how many structures (and of which type) are in hangars, and then remove the flag when the resulting ROI/time is acceptable.
Edit: of course, since the "bound to become more expensive" structures WILL become more expensive, if tomorrow the NPC price will be unchanged it WILL still be a good investment to buy them. But restricting the competition to those modules (no reprocessing) is not the same as bringing it to ALL the PI chain. And consequently the investment will be much less worth (as in it may make sense to invest a little bit, but not to dump hundreds of billions in cynojamers).
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.06.01 15:56:00 -
[8]
I'm under the impression people think that every noob that is starting PI will instantly dump his PI goods on the market as soon as they come out.Hell no nothing like that is going to happen.
I for one am not sending even 1 unit of PI on the market for a loooong time, and i know many other people will keep theirs as well.
In short PI goods will be hard to get a hold of and since its logistics nightmare there will likely be insane demand for them not long ago after npc orders get nuked out. knowledge is power |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.01 16:26:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Akita T on 01/06/2010 16:28:43
Originally by: Akita T If you look on SiSi, you will notice that you can no longer reprocess POS structures, so at least the big gaping hole through which cheap P4 materials can come through has been plugged, even if build ratios have remained unchanged on SiSi at this time (they might still change for Tyrannis 1.0.2 which most likely will come June 8 or June 9). PI start is still scheduled for June 8 (with or without Tyrannis 1.0.2), so the NPC orders will remain active at least that long, if not longer.
Now, you have at least two possible big scenarios, each with some sub-scenarios.
First scenario is that CCP decides to change absolutely nothing about build ratios for towers nor P4 production. In that case, whoever already participated in this will basically be pretty rich, PI will suffer a little for SOME specific P4 combinations (those that were created in excess via this oversight), but will hilariously be MUCH MORE VALUABLE for other types of P4s (those that cost the most now too). Sadly, this is probably the best course of action at this time, leave it at the changes you see on SiSi. The only drawback is that is rewards those that sunk a lot of ISK into it, which would mean Chronotis either was bluffing or was unaware of the economic consequences at the time he made his "dire warning" post.
The second scenario is that CCP decides to multiply P4 material need by a factor of X (most agree X=10 would be about fair), multiply P4 reaction yield to X/hour (from 1/hour) and reduce P4 volume to 1/X (so for X=10, you get 10 m^3 for a P4 instead of 100). This would basically mean that whatever stockpiles of P4 goods people still have will be as good as worth 1/X of what they're worth now. If CCP would decide on an even higher value of X (like, say, 20), that would indeed "punish" SOME of the people that got involved in it - others have already gone out of it with a lot of profit, there's nothing you can do to "punish" those. Most likely though, X will NOT be higher than 10, so it's not really that much of a punishment, just a major reduction in profit. While it would indeed make PI overall more profitable, it will also make PI more boring (far less difference between lowest and highest value P4 product).
Each of those two scenarios have two similar sub-scenarios, namely regardng the price those NPC structures will return to the market, combined with the possibility of an uneven tweak of build needs for those specific structures. If they return unchanged, build-wise (or are altered the same way the rest are altered), while the "cost balance" would be more fair considering the usefulness of those structures, this leaves ample room for a much simpler exploitation - stockpiling large amounts of those POS structures cheap, only to be sold later at higher prices since, hey, you can no longer get them cheap anyway.
So it can still be salvaged, to some degree... or it could get even more screwed up. It all depends on what else CCP has in store.
Linkage
...and then...
Originally by: Jack Dant On Sisi right now every P4 item has a "broken" variant that refines into 10k tritanium. Draw your own conclusions.
Ouch
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.01 17:22:00 -
[10]
Can confirm they dropped the hammer on Sisi before shutting it down.
Broken P4 parts ftw. Didn't get a chance to check the BPO requirements before closing.
If fix stays same (or could get worse), reprocessing REAA and CSJ to make structures will not be viable. Those who jumped on first couple of days will make good money, those holding random P4 bits may lose plenty.
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Merouk Baas
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.06.01 17:29:00 -
[11]
Just wanted to point out that, in the case of a "universally disliked" fix, all you need is ONE person to like it and it's no longer "universally".
And I have a feeling that, whichever "bad" fix they pick, there will be quite a few people cheering them on and liking the changes, and the tears they bring.
So, yeah ;-).
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Korenti Rels
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Posted - 2010.06.01 18:06:00 -
[12]
Originally by: cosmoray Can confirm they dropped the hammer on Sisi before shutting it down.
Broken P4 parts ftw. Didn't get a chance to check the BPO requirements before closing.
If fix stays same (or could get worse), reprocessing REAA and CSJ to make structures will not be viable. Those who jumped on first couple of days will make good money, those holding random P4 bits may lose plenty.
BPO requirements were unchanged yesterday. Did not check today. They patched Sisi at 7:00 but I had not DLed the patch yet, and I'm glad I did not as they patched again 30 minutes ago. Sisi is now up and running again, but of course I also do not have the latest patch. About to go home now, than, if Sisi is still running, I'll patch and see if something seems different.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2010.06.01 18:44:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Tiberizzle on 01/06/2010 18:44:36 Any thoughts on whether or not manufacturing jobs in progress will be affected by the Broken PI4 components ?
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Kalrand
Kalrand's POS Removal Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.01 18:49:00 -
[14]
I'm liking my choice to dump a billion in p4's onto buy orders more and more.
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mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.06.01 18:57:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Edited by: Tiberizzle on 01/06/2010 18:44:36 Any thoughts on whether or not manufacturing jobs in progress will be affected by the Broken PI4 components ?
That sure seems like a really intrusive change for something they never officially considered an exploit.... But I'm eagerly awaiting news on this front, although we'll know in under 24 hours regardless.
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Varo Jan
Caravanserai Consulting
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Posted - 2010.06.01 19:01:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Edited by: Tiberizzle on 01/06/2010 18:44:36 Any thoughts on whether or not manufacturing jobs in progress will be affected by the Broken PI4 components ?
Once a job starts the materials are gone. I can't see how the as yet mythical "Broken P4s" come into the equation here.
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Steve Thomas
Minmatar
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Posted - 2010.06.01 19:21:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Steve Thomas on 01/06/2010 19:25:28
Originally by: Varo Jan
Originally by: Tiberizzle Edited by: Tiberizzle on 01/06/2010 18:44:36 Any thoughts on whether or not manufacturing jobs in progress will be affected by the Broken PI4 components ?
Once a job starts the materials are gone. I can't see how the as yet mythical "Broken P4s" come into the equation here.
Existing PI parts in inventorys become "Broken". aparently they are making the developers who did not do there job go through with a 10 pound hammer and made him/her yell Absor Smash on each item as s/he "converts" them.
New PI bits made after the 8th will not be broken.
Edit note, this is hardly the first time developers droped the hammer on players for there own mistake nor is it likely to be the last time developers do so.
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* a (Long) Guide to Pi
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2010.06.01 19:24:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Steve Thomas
Originally by: Varo Jan
Originally by: Tiberizzle Edited by: Tiberizzle on 01/06/2010 18:44:36 Any thoughts on whether or not manufacturing jobs in progress will be affected by the Broken PI4 components ?
Once a job starts the materials are gone. I can't see how the as yet mythical "Broken P4s" come into the equation here.
Existing PI parts in inventorys become "Broken". aparently they are making the developers who did not do there job go through with a 10 pound hammer and made him/her yell Absor Smash on each item as s/he "converts" them.
New PI bits made after the 8th will not be broken.
lol um, did you actually read the thread or comments you were responding to?
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Steve Thomas
Minmatar
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Posted - 2010.06.01 19:29:00 -
[19]
I us CCPs QA department to vet my posts, why do you ask?
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* a (Long) Guide to Pi
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Korenti Rels
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Posted - 2010.06.01 19:40:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Edited by: Tiberizzle on 01/06/2010 18:44:36 Any thoughts on whether or not manufacturing jobs in progress will be affected by the Broken PI4 components ?
I have no idea. The only way to know that would have been to have a manufacturing job in progress on Sisi on the 29th when they put the change in. And I hadn't any. There MAY be someone that had one, but unless they speak up we'll only know tomorrow.
I guess either it completes normally or it is voided, the installation costs are reimbursed, the blueprint returned unchanged (if it was a copy), and the non P4 materials also all returned. The P4s will be returned, but broken.
The same is true for pending sell orders. But I really doubt there is anyone that had pending P4 sell orders on Sisi. However there IS one thing that is interesting: all planetary stuff is currently seeded on Sisi (at the 100 isk mark, as is normal over there) EXCEPT for P4s. I did not check if this is because P4s are new items while the others were already in game or if they actually did something special.
I can however confirm that not even the most recent Sisi patch (17:30 UTC today) introduced any change in P4 yield, volume or BP requirements.
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Wylin
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Posted - 2010.06.01 19:54:00 -
[21]
I made 1 Bil isk off a 1/2 bil isk investment I could care less what they do with the stuff I got out when I read broken parts and was like yeh time to cash out I guess.
I will have buy orders for broken parts going up tomorrow at 50 isk a unit if anyone is interested
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.01 20:12:00 -
[22]
My feeling is that when they do a mini patch (maybe tomorrow, they keep dropping Sisi) some changes will be made, and looking at history (and Sisi), here's what I predict.
1. Current manufacturing jobs to be unaffected 2. ALL POS structures currently in people's hangars or on market will only reprocess to broken parts 3. All P4 mats will become broken version, which melt into 10,000 Tritanium btw. 4. When main patch is delivered removal of POS structures from market so the prices will adjust accordingly and reprocessing will be switched back on.
If you have any P4 mats you should either make something or sell up before a mini-nerf.
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Korenti Rels
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Posted - 2010.06.01 23:13:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Wylin I made 1 Bil isk off a 1/2 bil isk investment I could care less what they do with the stuff I got out when I read broken parts and was like yeh time to cash out I guess.
I will have buy orders for broken parts going up tomorrow at 50 isk a unit if anyone is interested
I do not think so. They cannot be traded on the market. But you can put up some WTB contract, if you want.
- Firstly, planet VI in FD-MLJ will be nuked from orbit (after all, it is the only way to be sure) and all existing infrastructure will be gone. -- CCP Nimbus |
DarkArtz
Celestial Mayhem Honourable Templum of Alcedonia
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Posted - 2010.06.01 23:14:00 -
[24]
Turning P4 items into broken items is an awesome fix. I can just imagine some poor player out there who was not involved in reprocessing POS mods buying these up just to find them unusable after the patch.
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Morriana Marketmaker
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Posted - 2010.06.01 23:23:00 -
[25]
Of course this info here could all have been made up by certain people in order to flood the market tonight with cheap P4's, which they then snap up. Nobody here has concrete proof that this is what will happen tomorrow :)
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Korenti Rels
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Posted - 2010.06.01 23:35:00 -
[26]
Originally by: cosmoray My feeling is that when they do a mini patch (maybe tomorrow, they keep dropping Sisi) some changes will be made, and looking at history (and Sisi), here's what I predict.
1. Current manufacturing jobs to be unaffected
Agreed. Because it would be a PITA to reverse them with a script: it would be a task sufficiently complex to require testing by hundreds of people if you want to avoid piles of petitions for wrong reimbursement that cannot be answered because the logs would either not show the reversing or they will show it but the GM tools need to be rewritten to display them.
Originally by: cosmoray 2. ALL POS structures currently in people's hangars or on market will only reprocess to broken parts
Disagreed. That would mean changing a lot of code. Stuff reprocess into what is in a DB table (invTypeMaterials), and what is in that table is also part of the BP requirements. There is a way to specify BP requirements that do not come back by reprocessing, but no way to specify reprocessing material that is not in the BP. Doing what you say would require writing A HUGE LOT of code, both in the client and in the server.
I think what they will do is simply search invTypeMaterials for the list of BPs that have planetary stuff in them and then move the requirements from invTypeMaterials to that other table (is that ramTypeRequirements or something, cannot remember right now). In other words: the structures will stop be reprocessable (will behave like the civilian modules you get with the noobship).
Not only that's much much easier, it also is what they did on SiSi.
Originally by: cosmoray 3. All P4 mats will become broken version, which melt into 10,000 Tritanium btw.
Yep. This will happen.
Originally by: cosmoray 4. When main patch is delivered removal of POS structures from market so the prices will adjust accordingly and reprocessing will be switched back on.
Nope. They shall remove the NPC seeds. But the reprocessing shall NOT be re-enabled. Not sure why you say that. Unless you are sitting on a pile of cynojammers and rapid assembly that you forgot to reprocess (or plan to stockpile tomorrow when the server comes up).
- Firstly, planet VI in FD-MLJ will be nuked from orbit (after all, it is the only way to be sure) and all existing infrastructure will be gone. -- CCP Nimbus |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.02 01:17:00 -
[27]
On Sisi now POS structures CAN'T be reprocessed.
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General Bezelbub
Caldari
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Posted - 2010.06.02 01:55:00 -
[28]
Rofl, if ccp does do the broken P4 change tomorrow. It just about the worst possible way they can handle it at this point, which would fit right in to this whole situation.
At this point I have more then made back my 27bil initial investment, so if CCP does manage to screw all the people that only bought off market as an investment or look something new, its icing on the cake.
You would think CCP would have made mention of this possiblility somewhere other in a 700post threadnaught, IE frontpage or such. Because alot of non-MD/non-forum people dont have a clue, they are still asking when are PCC going to be seeded.
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.06.02 03:11:00 -
[29]
This was always a gamble and there was always a risk. Some people will win, some will lose and the rest just like moaning.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Korenti Rels
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Posted - 2010.06.02 12:00:00 -
[30]
Originally by: cosmoray On Sisi now POS structures CAN'T be reprocessed.
That's exactly what I wrote.
- Firstly, planet VI in FD-MLJ will be nuked from orbit (after all, it is the only way to be sure) and all existing infrastructure will be gone. -- CCP Nimbus |
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