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Algorton
Active Fusion
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Posted - 2010.08.14 09:47:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Algorton on 14/08/2010 09:51:49
Hello, you lovely science nerds.
I have a question regarding t2 invention chances.
So far i have calculated with the values given by this website: http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/invention_chance.php
However, recently i have not been able to come even close to the success rate that this site calculates. On ships i should be near 30 % success, but i am even below 10 %. t2 ammo is similar.
While I am fully aware that it is totally possible to have a lot of misses even at 99 % chance (thats just how chance-based stuff works after all) i am getting really ****ed.
Here is the question:
Are the chances that that website gives (30 % on t2 cruisers with good but not excellent science skills) unrealistic or am i just having bad luck?
Thanks in advance.
Al
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.14 09:56:00 -
[2]
You did take into account the decryptor chance modifier (if you used one), right ?
There are some that decrease invention chances.
If so... then yeah, just bad luck. It happens.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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JosephLuck
Hikage Corporation
Black Star Alliance
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Posted - 2010.08.14 10:04:00 -
[3]
Edited by: JosephLuck on 14/08/2010 10:04:51
Mmm, to have a bad invetion turn happens, bad luck is the reason, the solution is to invent different things at the same time, like putting your bet in different position on a roulette, if you loose somewhere you could win somewhere else....so if you don't get enough pbc on a ship you could get more than you thought on a module or ammo.....i also suggest to train the invention related skills to lvl4 or 5....
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Sepi
Gamma Draconis Industries
Eternus Imperium Alliance
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Posted - 2010.08.14 10:42:00 -
[4]
the run of badluck is something that we all have, unfortuantly you have ride through it.
Whenever i have discussed with friends about going into the t2 market (them) i always tell them to have enough isk to cover themselvs for a bad run.
I have just come out of a very bad run myself. on 110 inventions (cruisers/BC/BS) i got 6 successes.. it worked out 6 BPC's for roghly 800mill of datacores.
But thankfully it looks like i might be out of woods...
But yes chance is such that one day you'll get 10 from 10 and next you'll get 0 from 10
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Algorton
Active Fusion
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Posted - 2010.08.14 10:59:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Algorton on 14/08/2010 10:59:30
Thanks guys,
yes i calculated decryptor modifiers.
I'll probably get back to it once i've calmed down a bit.
Edited cause of evil typos
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Mr LaForge
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Posted - 2010.08.15 03:39:00 -
[6]
Your success rate depends alot on your skills as well. Lvl 5s are very very preferable when inventing ships. Also that 30% does not mean that for every 10 jobs you put in that 3 are guaranteed to do good. Its all random chance. You may only invent 1 and the next batch you may get 5.
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KaarBaak
Minmatar
Hell's Librarians
Imperium Directive
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Posted - 2010.08.15 05:26:00 -
[7]
Edited by: KaarBaak on 15/08/2010 05:30:37
Edited by: KaarBaak on 15/08/2010 05:27:40
FWIW, here is a [VERY rough] spreadsheet I use to calculate probability.
I highlighted the significant portion.
Most of the other junk was just me messing around with the formula to decide the return on training certain skills.
Uses the "Base x (1 + E) x (1 + F x I) x D" formula from the wiki.
KB
Edit: also, as mentioned above, this formula yields the probability that you will have a success on each try. Each attempt is independant of any other attempt. May the "RNG" bring good luck to you.
=vinur allra manna
MetaGaming |
alittlebirdy
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Posted - 2010.08.15 07:47:00 -
[8]
Good luck and bad luck as said, that site I find overall to be correct, I've had the same luck as the other posters, nailed 10, then 2/20 lol... Been lucky so far and never took a "lose" on a "run". I've made no money before but... gota just ride over it... lots of isk is good for invention =) lol.
Skillz skillz skillz though get them up... I concider myself a noob with 8mill sp in sci...
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Illfindyou
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Posted - 2010.08.15 20:16:00 -
[9]
Make sure you have the correct meta-level selected as well. For ages I used the wrong meta level unknowingly (before i realized just what it meant) and got the wrong chance.
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