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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 00:39:00 -
[1]
Edited by: 49473 on 05/09/2010 00:40:37
The purpose of this thread is to introduce to the market discussion forum a recent piece of technical analysis by the Jita Trade and Research Institute.
The technical analysis is on Ferrogel, an item randomly chosen from a popular commodity listing.
Ferrogel: A Technical Analysis
Your comments, criticisms, improvements would be greatly appreciated.
The Jita Trade and Research Institute is a school and humanitarian aid organization. Like most schools the JTRI has a very formal curriculum that focuses primarily on the practical side of education. The Jita Trade and Research institute is also now offering a range of analysis techniques for a variety of eve commodities.
In the interests of openess, it is made public that JTRI is invested in Ferrogel to the current value of 1.4billion.
The document can be provided in Braille and larger print form if requested.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.05 01:10:00 -
[2]
I have several observations and little time to write them.
1) Where is the actual Ferrogel analysis? What I could see is a very well written recap about indicators. I mean, I see the underlying is the Ferrogel market but what then? Buy or sell, in a nutshell?
2) While it's very well written, it's vastly too much and confusing both for a RL trader and an EvE one.
3) That bunch of stuff requires quality data taken at shorter intervals that EvE lets us fetch. How do you get that data?
4) Indicators are a tool to aid in a decision, they don't "tell" anything by themselves. Guess what, Mr. Bollinger tends not to even mention his famous Bollinger Bands during his conventions, he's a convinced fundamentalist. The BB come much later, to help him give a finishing touch to trades.
5) With EvE's tools available to everyone, I'd expect what you did not really talk a lot about: use of simple and effective things like lines (trend lines, pivot points) and median quadrants. All they require is MS Paint and yield same or better results than using a load if squiggly lines & indicators.
6) You seem to talk about pivot points like at page 6: "A pivot point is a price level of significance in technical analysis of a market that is used by traders as a predictive indicator of market movement."
No, pivot points are not a predictive indicator, they only show past price action aka PPA in the RL trading jargon.
Evaluation of actual PA (or current price action) is what confirms a *break* or *bounce* off those lines. Example: a special bar known as "pin bar" deeply breaks through a pivot point. What would you apparently make out of it? That price is to break? NO. Pin means "pinocchio" that is liar, and they are mostly caused by large institutions killing small traders sitting orders in order to build up momentum to reverse the trend. The pin bar (or any of about a dozen of known PA patterns) is the "predictive indicator" of the equation, not the pivot line it breaks. The latter is but reference where the current PA plays and gives hints about what follows next.
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Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Lucyna
Minmatar
Interstellar Killer Bee Enterprises
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Posted - 2010.09.05 01:14:00 -
[3]
Before anyone comments on why this doesn't have a recommendation for this certain commodity, read the last page where they tell that this is a demo, to stimulate demand for these goods.
This is the best put-together analysis of anything I've ever seen related to a game. Personally, I think that this is something else and must have taken a long time, unless you are hiding some speciallized software that I don't know about. This analysis is both chock full of great information and somewhat accessable, and I fully support any analysis in the future.
Unlike Hexxx, I think that this will be slow to catch on. I hope it's the opposite, that this takes MD in a different direction. It'd be interesting to see a recommendation attached to this or future reports, or at least how well the technical indicators would do on historical data of the commodity. I'm sure that JTaR has done at least a little bit of research on how well different technical indicators apply to various items, and which one is best for x type of item. That might be too much info to give out to us.
I really see a future in this type of service. See the latest evemorningreport podcast for mine and Hexxx's comments, but Hexxx said that people might start offering buy and sell alerts via eve-mail and maybe even cell phones. What are the plans for selling the service in the future?
_________
Eve - for when I'm not playing minecraft ;) |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.05 01:23:00 -
[4]
Ah, nota bene that I am not shunning your evidently hard work, just giving tips.
Some things I forgot is about how you'd mix and match the squigglies.
Do you suggest MACD + RSI and at what periods?
Do you suggest Stoch + ADX? Or Slow Stoch + ADX?
What is your exact strategy for trading over the Keltner channel? Break out or PA?
What about the Donchian Channel? Turtle Traders made millions in RL with it and we happen to have it directly in the in game graphs.
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Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 01:31:00 -
[5]
1) I will quote the closing statement
 Originally by: Closing statement
#It is also structured thus to allow for the easier commercialisation of such technical analysis in the future, wherein this document will serve as a reference for ôharderö technical analysis with increased predictive comment. (Something absent from this document)à
àThis document lacks much of the directive commentary that will be included in commercial and future analyses.
2) As I have mentioned both in this post and the in the document itself, it stands as the first of hopefully, each one improving on the last. Constructive criticism please.
3) I am aware of the intervals required, but such tools and methods have been adapted in this case. You might wish for ideal information, however it Is not available. As is mentioned in the document, while my sources are acknowledged, the precise method of data collection and modification will remain unknown.
4) I am quite aware of what indicators do, I am also aware of the role that Fundamental Analysis can play. However this document is on technical analysis, and I have plans produce a frame for Fundamental Analysis reports later.
5) My technical analysis is highly automated and as such I do not use MS paint much, however I will bear your suggestion in mind. Also I like loads of squiggly lines and indicators
6) Here I shall quote a popular online source on pivot points
Originally by: Source
ôPivot points are yet another useful tool that can be added to any trader's toolbox. It enables anyone to quickly calculate levels that are likely to cause price movement. The success of a pivot-point system, however, lies squarely on the shoulders of the trader, and on his or her ability to effectively use the pivot-point systems in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis.ö
This is precisely my position on them, and I will make adjustments this section in future. Thank you for your response, I do appreciate it.
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 01:34:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Ah, nota bene that I am not shunning your evidently hard work, just giving tips.
Some things I forgot is about how you'd mix and match the squigglies.
Do you suggest MACD + RSI and at what periods?
Do you suggest Stoch + ADX? Or Slow Stoch + ADX?
What is your exact strategy for trading over the Keltner channel? Break out or PA?
What about the Donchian Channel? Turtle Traders made millions in RL with it and we happen to have it directly in the in game graphs.
I will be using this thread to put together a list of improvements and things I need to include in future documents.
Also I did actually do Donchian, but it wasnt included. There are other tools or methods I did but didn't include for various reasons.
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 01:39:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Lucyna
Before anyone comments on why this doesn't have a recommendation for this certain commodity, read the last page where they tell that this is a demo, to stimulate demand for these goods.
This is the best put-together analysis of anything I've ever seen related to a game. Personally, I think that this is something else and must have taken a long time, unless you are hiding some speciallized software that I don't know about. This analysis is both chock full of great information and somewhat accessable, and I fully support any analysis in the future.
Unlike Hexxx, I think that this will be slow to catch on. I hope it's the opposite, that this takes MD in a different direction. It'd be interesting to see a recommendation attached to this or future reports, or at least how well the technical indicators would do on historical data of the commodity. I'm sure that JTaR has done at least a little bit of research on how well different technical indicators apply to various items, and which one is best for x type of item. That might be too much info to give out to us.
I really see a future in this type of service. See the latest evemorningreport podcast for mine and Hexxx's comments, but Hexxx said that people might start offering buy and sell alerts via eve-mail and maybe even cell phones. What are the plans for selling the service in the future?
With the framework in place, which didnÆt take too long to do, it now requires significantly less time to produce a report, with more time needed for certain times of analysis.
I donÆt ever see offering texts alerts, however offering commodity analysis is something that I am looking to do if there is interest. I suspect we should see how good this one was first!
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Mini Tee
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Posted - 2010.09.05 02:50:00 -
[8]
I think you didn't apply the fib retracements correctly. You're supposed to measure the last swing and add the retracements there.
Lets say the swing from 11k and 9k, then .382 of that swing which would be 9764.
Other than that it's a nice report, but I don't see any use in it, (no offense) because I don't see the point in fancy indicators.
Here is my take on Ferrogel, pointing out a possible bottom and to where it might retrace, though it would be a countertrend trade, and I would not take it.
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 03:08:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Mini Tee
I think you didn't apply the fib retracements correctly. You're supposed to measure the last swing and add the retracements there.
Lets say the swing from 11k and 9k, then .382 of that swing which would be 9764.
Other than that it's a nice report, but I don't see any use in it, (no offense) because I don't see the point in fancy indicators.
Here is my take on Ferrogel, pointing out a possible bottom and to where it might retrace, though it would be a countertrend trade, and I would not take it.
I understand how traditional fib retracements are done, however for my purposes and because of previous testing I've found what you see actually more useful for eve commodities; as strange as it is.
In the next future reports, they will be done ôrightö as well as ôwrongö
I donÆt take offence, I find technical analysis enjoyable, and I think it provides a way for me to keep my trading interesting. I could adopt more traditional and less fancy trading methods, but I donÆt particularly want to because I find this works better for me and enjoy it.
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Slik
Minmatar
Brutal Deliverance
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Posted - 2010.09.05 03:38:00 -
[10]
if only I could have understood even 1% of that document. :(
Yep. |
prostuclasei
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Posted - 2010.09.05 04:18:00 -
[11]
Edited by: prostuclasei on 05/09/2010 04:18:19
So these methods or tools are supposed to help us forecast the direction of prices/stocks/commodities okay, sounds good. You provide.... not sure, 20 or 30 methods/tools here? Which one is the best to use and which one is the easiest to use? How can I use your custom indicators? Do I need to download some software to use them?
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 04:19:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Slik
if only I could have understood even 1% of that document. :(
Contacted you ingame.
Also anyone else who is finding it hard to read please say so and point out what, so I can improve it.
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Jamie Banks
Gallente
Wasted and Still Mining
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Posted - 2010.09.05 04:31:00 -
[13]
I found the report very professional and quite easy to understand.
I have only a very small previous knowledge of TA and your definitions and summaries were very well written and easily understandable.
I think that this report delievered exactly what you set out to do, and that was to apply TA to an eve commodity, very similar to VV, and make some interesting conclusions.
The report has exactly enough substance to wet the budding traders apetite without giving a 'Buy Now!' or 'Sell' signal, which everyone who is to lazy to do their own research wants.
People who want TA on easy mode aka, 'Buy Dyspromium', 'Sell Technetium' for example. Will have to pay for it. And you have shown that you have the fundamental and technical knowledge to provide that, at a price of course.
Disclaimer: Dont buy dys and sell tech, just an example.
_______________________________
Join in-game Channel 'Aussies'
AU/NZ Corp Register |
49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
|
Posted - 2010.09.05 09:35:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Jamie Banks
I found the report very professional and quite easy to understand.
I have only a very small previous knowledge of TA and your definitions and summaries were very well written and easily understandable.
I think that this report delievered exactly what you set out to do, and that was to apply TA to an eve commodity, very similar to VV, and make some interesting conclusions.
The report has exactly enough substance to wet the budding traders apetite without giving a 'Buy Now!' or 'Sell' signal, which everyone who is to lazy to do their own research wants.
People who want TA on easy mode aka, 'Buy Dyspromium', 'Sell Technetium' for example. Will have to pay for it. And you have shown that you have the fundamental and technical knowledge to provide that, at a price of course.
Disclaimer: Dont buy dys and sell tech, just an example.
Thank you for your comments.
To all, I would also like comments about potential pricing for this as a service.
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Todd Schwartz
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Posted - 2010.09.05 11:11:00 -
[15]
Very well-written and informative report. I would certainly pay for a stock periodical written by you. The format I would like would be something similar to this report, with a recommendations section so that I could browse through the reports and learn something about technical analysis but at the same time reap the benefits of condensed information.
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 11:22:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Todd Schwartz
Very well-written and informative report. I would certainly pay for a stock periodical written by you. The format I would like would be something similar to this report, with a recommendations section so that I could browse through the reports and learn something about technical analysis but at the same time reap the benefits of condensed information.
I am in the process of creating the framework for a "Analysis Summary page" which will condense to one page the various results of the methods and tools; in future documents.
This document would then stand as a reference in relation to any future documents wherein those documents would not contain descriptions of the tools or methods used but their explicit relationship to the relevant commodity.
I am curious as to how much you or anyone would pay for such a service.
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Hexxx
Minmatar
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Posted - 2010.09.05 12:53:00 -
[17]
This is the future.
I appreciate your work and encourage you to keep it up. This is fantastic stuff. 
As far as charging...it's very difficult to say. I would encourage you to set up a poll.
Projects Blog |
49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 12:59:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Hexxx
This is the future.
I appreciate your work and encourage you to keep it up. This is fantastic stuff.
As far as charging...it's very difficult to say. I would encourage you to set up a poll.
I do intend to make future releases for non commercial reasons, more than likely I will ask players to vote on what commodity they want analysed. I also intend to release other more custom analysis developed by JTRI,
I will create a poll as to pricing.
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Jion Tichy
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Posted - 2010.09.05 13:34:00 -
[19]
I might pay for such a thing, but I would need to see a track record in order to pay a substantial amount. I would suggest 100 million per month as a good pricepoint, but for me to pay that I would have to see a track record of predictions.
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 13:39:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Jion Tichy
I might pay for such a thing, but I would need to see a track record in order to pay a substantial amount. I would suggest 100 million per month as a good pricepoint, but for me to pay that I would have to see a track record of predictions.
Indeed, I fully agree.
In fact I mentioned this earlier in the thread
Quote:
I donÆt ever see offering texts alerts, however offering commodity analysis is something that I am looking to do if there is interest. I suspect we should see how good this one was first!
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ameerkam47
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Posted - 2010.09.05 17:32:00 -
[21]
Read through it, great read, is a great source for begginers, but there is one fundemantal flaw, this wont work in eve online. Couple reasons TA works in a real stock market
A) Market manipulators is a minimum, theres a reason why TA does not work on otc and pink sheets because most of them are just manipulated or pump and dumps, In eve online, you have the big guys in jita doing market manipulation all the time, pumping up buy orders, buying out all units of an item then relisting it has a higher price, TA cannot predict something like that
B) Lots and lots of volume, the influence TA has becomes much stronger with lots of volume, In eve online most of the items that have high margins for me have a volume of 5 units in a month
Open to criticisms and counter arguments :)
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 18:27:00 -
[22]
Edited by: 49473 on 05/09/2010 18:27:56
Originally by: ameerkam47
Read through it, great read, is a great source for begginers, but there is one fundemantal flaw, this wont work in eve online. Couple reasons TA works in a real stock market
A) Market manipulators is a minimum, theres a reason why TA does not work on otc and pink sheets because most of them are just manipulated or pump and dumps, In eve online, you have the big guys in jita doing market manipulation all the time, pumping up buy orders, buying out all units of an item then relisting it has a higher price, TA cannot predict something like that
B) Lots and lots of volume, the influence TA has becomes much stronger with lots of volume, In eve online most of the items that have high margins for me have a volume of 5 units in a month
Open to criticisms and counter arguments :)
Just so you are aware, I know of 2 active market manipulations currently ongoing and have used my technical analysis to judge previous now closed manipulations. While my technical analysis is less effective in these cases, it still results in an analysis from which a profit making position can be adopted.
I fully acknowledge that my volume related indicators sometimes look more like static than anything meaningful, however they are used in conjunction with others.
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ameerkam47
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Posted - 2010.09.05 19:43:00 -
[23]
Edited by: ameerkam47 on 05/09/2010 19:46:40
Originally by: 49473
Edited by: 49473 on 05/09/2010 18:27:56
Just so you are aware, I know of 2 active market manipulations currently ongoing and have used my technical analysis to judge previous now closed manipulations. While my technical analysis is less effective in these cases, it still results in an analysis from which a profit making position can be adopted.
Interesting idea using previous manipulations to judge future ones, still very risky as there is no sound fundamental basis, just previous manipulations.
one thing though that everybody should look at is risk managment, sure it might work once maybe even twice, but the third time if you predict the manipulation all wrong and then you could have a large suppoly of something totally worhtless
An old adage is "dont confuse brains with a bull market",
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.05 19:50:00 -
[24]
Originally by: ameerkam47
Originally by: 49473
Edited by: 49473 on 05/09/2010 18:27:56
Just so you are aware, I know of 2 active market manipulations currently ongoing and have used my technical analysis to judge previous now closed manipulations. While my technical analysis is less effective in these cases, it still results in an analysis from which a profit making position can be adopted.
Interesting idea using previous manipulations to judge future ones, one thing though that everybody should look at is risk managment, sure it might work once maybe even twice, but the third time it could go all wrong and then youll have nothing
An old adage is "dont confuse brains with a bull market",
Spotting a manipulation attempt; unless it is perfect i.e Indistinguish from "natural" market movement, is a matter of having adequate set of tools and understanding the commodity.
When I engage in investment on items for which there is a significant risk of manipulation, in order to be safe, I do a custom bit of quantitative analysis and run Monte Carlo simulation to assess the "worst case scenario".
This sounds like a lot of work, but the tools are all created now and it's just a matter of typing the items name into a text box.
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Jamie Banks
Gallente
Wasted and Still Mining
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Posted - 2010.09.05 23:12:00 -
[25]
With regard to pricing (I'll fill out the poll, but I wanted to make some suggestions first):
1. Probably the most simple way of pricing a report is multiplying your expected time working on the report by a base rate. For example a carrier in 0.0 plexing anoms can be expected to break 100M ISK/Hr. Or a an average mission runner can make approx 50M ISK/Hr. You could simply multiply that figure by the amount of man-hours that went/are expected to be put into a report and divide it by the number of subscribers you have. Obviously if someone wants a tailor made individual report they have to pay through the nose.
2. Another idea which I quite like is to link the price to the volatility/profitability of a commodity to the price of the report.
Quote: [ Min Sell (30 DMA) * Quanitity Moved (30 DMA) ]/ Expected Clients
DMA - 30 Day Moving Average
Quantity Moved - Based on the total movement per day of the commodity.
Also add in a minimum price, such as 500M ISK such that if someone asks for an analysis of a low volume and/or low price item, you at least get some return.
_______________________________
Join in-game Channel 'Aussies'
AU/NZ Corp Register |
Lucyna
Minmatar
Interstellar Killer Bee Enterprises
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Posted - 2010.09.05 23:39:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Jamie Banks
With regard to pricing (I'll fill out the poll, but I wanted to make some suggestions first):
1. Probably the most simple way of pricing a report is multiplying your expected time working on the report by a base rate. For example a carrier in 0.0 plexing anoms can be expected to break 100M ISK/Hr. Or a an average mission runner can make approx 50M ISK/Hr. You could simply multiply that figure by the amount of man-hours that went/are expected to be put into a report and divide it by the number of subscribers you have. Obviously if someone wants a tailor made individual report they have to pay through the nose.
2. Another idea which I quite like is to link the price to the volatility/profitability of a commodity to the price of the report.
Quote: [ Min Sell (30 DMA) * Quanitity Moved (30 DMA) ]/ Expected Clients
DMA - 30 Day Moving Average
Quantity Moved - Based on the total movement per day of the commodity.
Also add in a minimum price, such as 500M ISK such that if someone asks for an analysis of a low volume and/or low price item, you at least get some return.
I'd say stay away from that kind of pricing. You obviously want to maximize profit, and once the report is created, it's a sunk cost. A poll might do well to get a price.
Another option is differnt price levels based on volume of reports. You could charge 100M for one report, 60M per 20 reports, 50M per 100 reports, etc. Use all the power of price discrimination you can.
One idea is to auction off the right to see the report first and have privileged access to it 24 h before anyone else does. This is another form of price discrimination. After the auction is complete, you will have a better understanding of what to charge once you release it to all buyers.
_________
Eve - for when I'm not playing minecraft ;) |
Ash Donai
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Posted - 2010.09.06 03:43:00 -
[27]
Originally by: 49473
Your comments, criticisms, improvements would be greatly appreciated.
Akira, is that you? |
49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.06 07:03:00 -
[28]
Edited by: 49473 on 06/09/2010 07:04:42
Edited by: 49473 on 06/09/2010 07:03:20
Originally by: Jamie Banks
With regard to pricing (I'll fill out the poll, but I wanted to make some suggestions first):
1. Probably the most simple way of pricing a report is multiplying your expected time working on the report by a base rate. For example a carrier in 0.0 plexing anoms can be expected to break 100M ISK/Hr. Or a an average mission runner can make approx 50M ISK/Hr. You could simply multiply that figure by the amount of man-hours that went/are expected to be put into a report and divide it by the number of subscribers you have. Obviously if someone wants a tailor made individual report they have to pay through the nose.
2. Another idea which I quite like is to link the price to the volatility/profitability of a commodity to the price of the report.
Quote: [ Min Sell (30 DMA) * Quanitity Moved (30 DMA) ]/ Expected Clients
DMA - 30 Day Moving Average
Quantity Moved - Based on the total movement per day of the commodity.
Also add in a minimum price, such as 500M ISK such that if someone asks for an analysis of a low volume and/or low price item, you at least get some return.
Thank you for your suggestions.
Am I inclined towards the second because it relates the report price to its potential value, I will create a sheet to do such a calculation, however I will use an exponential moving average instead of simple.
Originally by: Lucyna
I'd say stay away from that kind of pricing. You obviously want to maximize profit, and once the report is created, it's a sunk cost. A poll might do well to get a price.
Another option is differnt price levels based on volume of reports. You could charge 100M for one report, 60M per 20 reports, 50M per 100 reports, etc. Use all the power of price discrimination you can.
One idea is to auction off the right to see the report first and have privileged access to it 24 h before anyone else does. This is another form of price discrimination. After the auction is complete, you will have a better understanding of what to charge once you release it to all buyers.
This is also a useful suggestion.
I will need to create a new framework for the ôPaid for reportsö so they are more suitable for making a buy/sell decision. The biggest addition I have planned will be a summary page that brings together all the methods and tools, and just what the JTRI thinks the price will do because of said indicator.
Originally by: Ash Donai
Originally by: 49473
Your comments, criticisms, improvements would be greatly appreciated.
Akira, is that you?
I'm afraid this is not an Akira of any kind.
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.06 18:22:00 -
[29]
I am still looking for further comments on the document.
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Janya Rykayn
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Posted - 2010.09.06 19:12:00 -
[30]
I would just like to say that I think you did an excellent job here. Most real world stock analysis reports aren't nearly this thorough.
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