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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.20 19:26:00 -
[1]
Awhile I had a rather heated discussion with a person named Ash Donai, the discussion on their end could be summed up as:
 Quote:
Conditional probabilities are totally meaningless in EVE, why is this so hard to understand? Proven RL concepts do not apply, I didn't think I had to state the obvious.
ąand it is because of this statement that IĘd like to take you on a walk.
Not any ordinary walk however, a random walk.
The task is simple, you will be presented with 6 charts; A, B, C, D, E, F.
You have to tell me whether you think the price data on each chart is ōrealö or is a random walk.
To make things easier for you the first 180 days of data on each chart is ōrealö however the following 180 is either real or random walk; you are judging the last 180 days.
Please state your answers as per this example:
A: Fake
B: Fake
C: Fake
D: Fake
E: Fake
F: Real
Alternatively you can just state:
F: Real
Here is the link to the PDF containing the charts you will judge.
Charts
I understand that my methodology is somewhat flawed however this is what we do for fun in JTRI corp chat. I also understand the differences between types of random walks and how IĘve expressed my own.
I welcome any comments, criticisms or discussion.
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Lucyna
Minmatar
Interstellar Killer Bee Enterprises
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Posted - 2010.09.20 19:34:00 -
[2]
A, F real
rest fake.
Now preparing to look like an ass. |
Biruni Khan
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Posted - 2010.09.20 19:43:00 -
[3]
E is real. The rest are fake. |
Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.20 19:43:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Scott McClellan on 20/09/2010 19:43:59
There's not a whole lot of variance between them, I'm not going to attempt to look them up on the market and find out what matches either, that would defeat the purpose and take a lot of time :P
A: Fake (seems like it's intended to look real with the variation)
B: Fake (too flat)
C: Real (Regular market fluctuation)
D: Fake (completely flat, no trend really)
E: Real
F: Fake |
Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente
RAD BROMANCE
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Posted - 2010.09.20 19:43:00 -
[5]
I don't even know what a "random walk" is.
But I'm calling all fake. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.20 19:48:00 -
[6]
E seems the most realistic, but except E they are generally an awful example of flat market, the kind that won't "tell" anything relevant. Therefore they could be a real awful flat market or fake awful flat market.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Magnu Stormhawk
Stormhawk Enterprises
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Posted - 2010.09.20 19:55:00 -
[7]
Originally by: 49473
this is what we do for fun in JTRI corp chat.
You need help.
In the meantime, C is my guess!
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:08:00 -
[8]
C: Real
E: Real
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Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
SRS.
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:13:00 -
[9]
Whoa wait, I wasn't told there would be a multiple choice test here
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Abdiel Kavash
Caldari
Paladin Order
Fidelas Constans
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:16:00 -
[10]
A: Random walk.
B: Real. (obvoius downward trend)
C: Random walk.
D: Real. (too flat)
E: Not sure, but I'd say real. (steady upwards trend, but not as obvious as B)
F: Real. (obvious trend around the 10k mark)
___________
EVE is dying! Now for real! |
Lord Beckford
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:17:00 -
[11]
e is real
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:26:00 -
[12]
For the clueless, only one can be real. (Unless there happens to be two items with identical price graphs over 6 months.)
E is obviously the most real looking, so therefore it can't be the real one. (Why? Because the test is rigged and the OP is trying to make a point.)
If I had to guess, I would say A is real, but the correct answer is that all are "fake" because even the "real" one is a random walk.
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Amarr Citizen 155
Nordar Innovations.
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:36:00 -
[13]
G: There is no spoon.
-----------------/finger
I only post on MD when I'm too drunk too give a ****. |
TornSoul
BIG
Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:57:00 -
[14]
It's of course a trick question : They are all real 
BIG Lottery |
oil
Double-L
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Posted - 2010.09.20 20:59:00 -
[15]
b real
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Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
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Posted - 2010.09.20 21:28:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Mme Pinkerton on 20/09/2010 21:32:03
If the real one isn't random the market has failed.
edit: there's so much wrong with my statement above... but I think the idea behind it makes sense.
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Trebor Whettam
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Posted - 2010.09.20 22:50:00 -
[17]
E looks the most real. C is next best, but it's hard to believe that there wouldn't be more significant sudden jumps.
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Michela
Bosun Shipyards
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Posted - 2010.09.21 00:54:00 -
[18]
C,E: Real |
Charles37
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Posted - 2010.09.21 03:00:00 -
[19]
Before I read the rest of the thread and have other people influence my opinion...
D looks fake.
For the others, I could imagine a scenario in which the graphs could be real, and I could also see them being generated by a random walk, so I would essentially be flipping a coin.
{A,B,C,E,F} I abstain
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Taigatoo
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Posted - 2010.09.21 03:42:00 -
[20]
B is fake.
-T.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.21 04:17:00 -
[21]
The correct one is B.
100% sure. The rest of you are losers.
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.21 04:31:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Scott McClellan on 21/09/2010 04:31:22
Obviously only one of them is real, but I'm standing by C and E, most likely E. The other are either too flat (even the one with the long downward trend), or A, which looks "constructed." The trends in that one are very weak, and it just doesn't look right, at least to me.
When do we get the answers?
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.21 04:33:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Scott McClellan
Edited by: Scott McClellan on 21/09/2010 04:31:22
Obviously only one of them is real, but I'm standing by C and E, most likely E. The other are either too flat (even the one with the long downward trend), or A, which looks "constructed." The trends in that one are very weak, and it just doesn't look right, at least to me.
When do we get the answers?
You'll get the answer by 2010.09.21 19:26:00.
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Frankfasta
Minmatar
Knights Of the Black Sun
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Posted - 2010.09.21 09:37:00 -
[24]
Does "conditional probability" mean anything different in economic technical terms compared mathematical terms?
I really dont understand how the graphs would relate to anything in the form of P(A|B) or, more generally, how probabilistic theory would become meaningless just because youre "in EVE".
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.21 09:58:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Frankfasta
Does "conditional probability" mean anything different in economic technical terms compared mathematical terms?
I really dont understand how the graphs would relate to anything in the form of P(A|B) or, more generally, how probabilistic theory would become meaningless just because youre "in EVE".
The quote is not actually mine but rather it's from someone who I was talking with in a previous thread.
They held the view that probabilistic theory was meaningless in eve, whereas I held the view that it was meaningful.
However, the discussion motivated me to create this thread which has had interesting results.
Here is the previous thread.
http://eve-search.com/thread/1381843/page/1
I must reiterate I don't think conditional probabilities are meaningless.
In fact, even in the random walk charts presented; you are quite correct that P(A|B) is not represented, where A is price at some t and B is price t+ 1
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.21 12:49:00 -
[26]
I liked the idea of this thread. I created something related here and would love to see your opinions!
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Sceta
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Posted - 2010.09.21 15:28:00 -
[27]
I'd pick D
Item is hyped and everyone wants it that can fit it.
Demand drops as people have it.
Demand increase when people who can't fit it now can fit it. (two mayor spikes in the graph)
Market is becomes stable as some people lose the item and some people can fit the item later.
But it all depands on what item it is I suspect PI
This is how I view it.
_____________________
<The UFF movement>
Want to know more? |
Zeta Zhul
Caldari
Preemptive Paranoia
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Posted - 2010.09.21 18:23:00 -
[28]
Hmmmm.
1. Spoon!
2. The test is utterly irrelevant and without any substantial purpose whatsoever.
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49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
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Posted - 2010.09.21 18:27:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Zeta Zhul
Hmmmm.
1. Spoon!
2. The test is utterly irrelevant and without any substantial purpose whatsoever.
Because of methodology you're probably correct about it not yield any substantive results however it was created as a bit of fun.
The random walk debate is one I find interesting.
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Abdiel Kavash
Caldari
Paladin Order
Fidelas Constans
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Posted - 2010.09.21 19:38:00 -
[30]
Originally by: 49473
Originally by: Scott McClellan
When do we get the answers?
You'll get the answer by 2010.09.21 19:26:00.
Hm?
___________
EVE is dying! Now for real! |
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