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Melted Nanoribbons are flying up!

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Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.12.27 17:38:00 - [1] With recent news on WH Ribbon drops being nerfed there was bound to be a spike in price. But most regions are now sold out and they're going for 8m+ p/u in Jita. How high is it going to go? Are the drop nerfs that bad? One to watch.
Ruareve	Posted - 2010.12.27 18:51:00 - [2] Do you have a link to the change in the drop rate?
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist	Posted - 2010.12.27 18:51:00 - [3] Edited by: Tasko Pal on 27/12/2010 18:55:20 So what do you need to make them? Polyaramids, nanites, and rocket fuel? Added: As far as I know, there's no story here. Some people are saying that nanoribbons are dropping less while some people who actually loot them say there's no difference. There's a recent thread either on Missions or Industry that covers this.
Ruareve	Posted - 2010.12.27 18:54:00 - [4] I think they are salvaged... one of the blue items. Maybe you can build those as well, I know more about how women think then I do about manufacturing in Eve.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.12.27 19:14:00 - [5] From my own experience they are dropping less. You can't sit in f***ing Jita all day and comment the drops haven't changed! Yeah they need to be salvaged, the blue tags drop in the cargo. No you can't build them and they have sod all to do with PI mats. They've been going up since the Noctis patch and will continue to. God help those who lose T3 on a regular basis. They're gonna notice the difference.
Corcyrus Endymion Caldari Excessum Corporation Excessum Gaming	Posted - 2010.12.27 19:24:00 - [6] Just checked the market history: The last couple of days saw a significant rise in the amount of nano ribbons being bought, starting off with 14k and not dipping below 10k afterwards. That's just Akita or Bad Bobby market manipulating.
adriaans Amarr Ankaa.	Posted - 2010.12.27 19:43:00 - [7] I think it has more to do with the sudden surge in demand for t3 ships, most likely to do with all those players after leanings refund that can now fly them.. (and I've never seen more t3 losses by noobs on kb's before either). --signature-- F.CS boost: Here Vid: Link
Lecherito	Posted - 2010.12.27 20:10:00 - [8] Originally by: Corcyrus Endymion Just checked the market history: The last couple of days saw a significant rise in the amount of nano ribbons being bought, starting off with 14k and not dipping below 10k afterwards. That's just Akita or Bad Bobby market manipulating. The graph in no way supports your speculations. Furthermore, Bobby isn't nearly smart enough for something as advanced as market speculation, while Akita already used his moment of greatness and as such could not pull off such a maneuver. Moongoo prices are going up. Salvage bits/t3 ingredients are spiking up as well. This is the beginning of an economic disaster like none we have ever seen before. Brace yourselves, lads...preferably with a massive stash of nanoribbons waiting to be dumped. -L
Corcyrus Endymion Caldari Excessum Corporation Excessum Gaming	Posted - 2010.12.27 20:17:00 - [9] Originally by: Lecherito Originally by: Corcyrus Endymion Just checked the market history: The last couple of days saw a significant rise in the amount of nano ribbons being bought, starting off with 14k and not dipping below 10k afterwards. That's just Akita or Bad Bobby market manipulating. The graph in no way supports your speculations. Furthermore, Bobby isn't nearly smart enough for something as advanced as market speculation, while Akita already used his moment of greatness and as such could not pull off such a maneuver. Moongoo prices are going up. Salvage bits/t3 ingredients are spiking up as well. This is the beginning of an economic disaster like none we have ever seen before. Brace yourselves, lads...preferably with a massive stash of nanoribbons waiting to be dumped. -L A 20% increase in sold nano ribbons is rather significant in my book :)
Lecherito	Posted - 2010.12.27 20:21:00 - [10] Originally by: Corcyrus Endymion Originally by: Lecherito Originally by: Corcyrus Endymion Just checked the market history: The last couple of days saw a significant rise in the amount of nano ribbons being bought, starting off with 14k and not dipping below 10k afterwards. That's just Akita or Bad Bobby market manipulating. The graph in no way supports your speculations. Furthermore, Bobby isn't nearly smart enough for something as advanced as market speculation, while Akita already used his moment of greatness and as such could not pull off such a maneuver. Moongoo prices are going up. Salvage bits/t3 ingredients are spiking up as well. This is the beginning of an economic disaster like none we have ever seen before. Brace yourselves, lads...preferably with a massive stash of nanoribbons waiting to be dumped. -L A 20% increase in sold nano ribbons is rather significant in my book :) While certainly significant, such an increase in no way indicates that an individual or set of individuals is behind it. -L ps Look at tritanium, zomg trit speculation??
Corcyrus Endymion Caldari Excessum Corporation Excessum Gaming	Posted - 2010.12.27 20:35:00 - [11] Originally by: Lecherito Originally by: Corcyrus Endymion Originally by: Lecherito Originally by: Corcyrus Endymion Just checked the market history: The last couple of days saw a significant rise in the amount of nano ribbons being bought, starting off with 14k and not dipping below 10k afterwards. That's just Akita or Bad Bobby market manipulating. The graph in no way supports your speculations. Furthermore, Bobby isn't nearly smart enough for something as advanced as market speculation, while Akita already used his moment of greatness and as such could not pull off such a maneuver. Moongoo prices are going up. Salvage bits/t3 ingredients are spiking up as well. This is the beginning of an economic disaster like none we have ever seen before. Brace yourselves, lads...preferably with a massive stash of nanoribbons waiting to be dumped. -L A 20% increase in sold nano ribbons is rather significant in my book :) While certainly significant, such an increase in no way indicates that an individual or set of individuals is behind it. -L ps Look at tritanium, zomg trit speculation?? It's doesn't warrant thinking it's all due to "natural causes" either.
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.27 20:36:00 - [12] Originally by: Herman Klaus With recent news on WH Ribbon drops being nerfed there was bound to be a spike in price. But most regions are now sold out and they're going for 8m+ p/u in Jita. How high is it going to go? Are the drop nerfs that bad? One to watch. Most everybody got a few million SPs free to distribute. Many people assigned these points to be able to fly ships they could not before. This included people training to fly T3 ships. Demand for T3 ships spiked significantly overnight. Producers then presumably bought mats to bump up their production to meet increased demand. Then people started spamming "zomgz, nanoribbon droprate nerf!" threads on forums when they saw prices go up, so it's a good bet there's somewhat of a speculator bubble involved here too. tl;dr- if you stock up now, you'll probably get burned. * [ SIG] * Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle! [ /sig ]
AtheistOfFail Caldari	Posted - 2010.12.27 20:42:00 - [13] There is no nerf. I am getting at least 1 per every 2 medium wrecks and at least 4 for a battleship. It's definitely not bad ISK for a cheaply fit hurricane with T2 gear. If anyone's saying the drops are getting nerfed, they are LYING to your face. Do not buy the propaganda, do not follow market trends and don't attempt to buy up unless you're willing to lose that ISK PS: Previous Ad paid for by AoF Lotteries Wormhole Division. Bringing you wormhole materials, extreme lols and cheap effective ship fittings. PSS: The increase is because of the increased demand on t3s.
Lecherito	Posted - 2010.12.27 20:51:00 - [14] Edited by: Lecherito on 27/12/2010 20:53:35 Originally by: AtheistOfFail There is no nerf. I am getting at least 1 per every 2 medium wrecks and at least 4 for a battleship. It's definitely not bad ISK for a cheaply fit hurricane with T2 gear. If anyone's saying the drops are getting nerfed, they are LYING to your face. Do not buy the propaganda, do not follow market trends and don't attempt to buy up unless you're willing to lose that ISK PS: Previous Ad paid for by AoF Lotteries Wormhole Division. Bringing you wormhole materials, extreme lols and cheap effective ship fittings. PSS: The increase is because of the increased demand on t3s. I believe your statistics to be...inaccurate. -L Also, the Jita buy orders are holding onto their "comfort ground" as reluctantly as possible. Could still make a big pull at 7. I predict prices of 8.5-10k within days. -L
AtheistOfFail Caldari	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:00:00 - [15] Originally by: Lecherito I believe your statistics to be...inaccurate. -L Also, the Jita buy orders are holding onto their "comfort ground" as reluctantly as possible. Could still make a big pull at 7. I predict prices of 8.5-10k within days. -L Nah. Not a dime above 9k. I'm sure the demand will subside after the rumours about decreased drops fall. It's still a numbers game. You can easily pop 30 sleepers and get nothing, and you can pop 8 frigates and get 8 nanoribbons (been there, done that, got the t-shirt).
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:01:00 - [16] Originally by: AtheistOfFail PSS: The increase is because of the increased demand on t3s. psst It's PPS, not PSS ;) Post-post script, not post script-script. Originally by: Lecherito I believe your statistics to be...inaccurate. -L Care to enlighten us with some sort of reason backing up your position, rather than sky-is-falling speculation-mongering? * [ SIG] * Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle! [ /sig ]
AtheistOfFail Caldari	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:03:00 - [17] Edited by: AtheistOfFail on 27/12/2010 21:04:12 Originally by: Berikath Originally by: AtheistOfFail PSS: The increase is because of the increased demand on t3s. psst It's PPS, not PSS ;) Post-post script, not post script-script. Originally by: Lecherito I believe your statistics to be...inaccurate. -L Care to enlighten us with some sort of reason backing up your position, rather than sky-is-falling speculation-mongering? I have a feeling he's on the "MARKET MANIPULATION, AMIDOINGITRITE?" train. There's nothing to support lower drops. If someone makes a decent report or CCP says that it's changed, i'll buy it. So far, all i've heard is "a friend of a friend of a friend in a C4 did XXXX site and only got 5 nanoribbons". Hardly market-leap-of-faith evidence there. PS: Really, i've been doing it wrong for some long
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:07:00 - [18] Originally by: AtheistOfFail PS: Really, i've been doing it wrong for some long I noticed. Just whenever I see abbreviations like that, my brain puts in the words... and things like that make it go "wait, what? WHERE AM I?!?!":-P * [ SIG] * Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle! [ /sig ]
Wyke Mossari Gallente Staner Industries	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:10:00 - [19] Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 27/12/2010 21:12:25 This topic was covered a few days ago and that wasn't the first thread either, and the signs have been there for a month. Demand has increased for high end ships of all types as a result of learning skill re-allocation. It has nothing to do with drop rates but is entirely about a step change increase in demand.
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:10:00 - [20] Originally by: AtheistOfFail There is no nerf. I am getting at least 1 per every 2 medium wrecks and at least 4 for a battleship. It's definitely not bad ISK for a cheaply fit hurricane with T2 gear. If anyone's saying the drops are getting nerfed, they are LYING to your face. Do not buy the propaganda, do not follow market trends and don't attempt to buy up unless you're willing to lose that ISK Who are YOU to contradict the reality that is... Jita!
AtheistOfFail Caldari	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:13:00 - [21] Originally by: Tasko Pal Originally by: AtheistOfFail There is no nerf. I am getting at least 1 per every 2 medium wrecks and at least 4 for a battleship. It's definitely not bad ISK for a cheaply fit hurricane with T2 gear. If anyone's saying the drops are getting nerfed, they are LYING to your face. Do not buy the propaganda, do not follow market trends and don't attempt to buy up unless you're willing to lose that ISK Who are YOU to contradict the reality that is... Jita! I never said it wasn't going up in price but i contradicted the idea of "OH NOES, DROP RATES GOT NERFED, BUY NAO!" mentality. The increase can be traced directly to that 5m SP refund. It's enough to get you from no caldari skills to a decent fitted tengu/drake. Cruiser 5 can be easily done plus T2 Heavies for about 2.5m SP or so.
Lecherito	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:45:00 - [22] As as already been said, the learning skill refund opened opened up an entirely new customer base to the wonders of t2/t3. everything in relation those classes of ships are going up in price, down to the very foundational blocks (fernite carbide???). If this were a manipulation we would slowly see a top heavy supply start to build up and eventually collapse the bubble. Look at the sell orders. That supply simply isn't there, in any region. And end to this shift, if there is one, will be quite a ways away. -L
AtheistOfFail Caldari	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:56:00 - [23] In other news, if you're looking for something to do this weekend, fit one of these little puppies up :) Originally by: "Ship Fits" {Arbi-Sleeper PWN} - about 15m [high] probe launcher 2 salvagers 1 tractor beam [medium] 2 medium capacitor battery II 10mn Afterburner codebreaker I [lows] damage control II 800mm reinforced plates 2x Inefficient Armor reps [rigs] 3x CCU [drones] 10x Valkyrie II 10x Warrior II {Hurricane-Sleeper PWN} - about 45m [high] 6x 650mm autocannons 1 probe launcher 1 salvager [mids] 10mn afterburner 2x Stasis webifier I (for frigates - web and pop) codebreaker I [lows] 800mm plate medium inefficient armor rep gyrostabilizer II 2x tracking enhancer II [rigs] 3x CCU [drones] 6x Warrior II
Alice Celadon	Posted - 2010.12.27 21:57:00 - [24] I might be inclined to agree that the bump in t2 prices will remain for a while, given that moongoo quantities are being fully exploited. You're dead wrong about T3 though.
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.27 22:24:00 - [25] Originally by: Lecherito As as already been said, the learning skill refund opened opened up an entirely new customer base to the wonders of t2/t3. everything in relation those classes of ships are going up in price, down to the very foundational blocks (fernite carbide???). If this were a manipulation we would slowly see a top heavy supply start to build up and eventually collapse the bubble. Look at the sell orders. That supply simply isn't there, in any region. And end to this shift, if there is one, will be quite a ways away. -L 1. For T2, I'd expect this is actually the "big" market adjustment from PI increasing POS fuel costs. It was put off a few months by fuel stockpiles, a few more months by extracted/reacted goods stockpiles, and the market is just now getting squeezed by demand outstripping supply. I predict once prices adjust up to a point where it becomes profitable to un-mothball the POSes which used to extract the stuff, prices will level off. 2. For T3 stuff, you're ignoring a few key facts. A. While daily (sustained) demand certainly went up w/ skillpoint allocation, it went up much LESS than current market situations would suggest. There are certainly going to be a lot of people who trained up to fly a T3 strategic cruiser, buy one, fly it for a little while, decide they don't like it and move on to another ship. B. Supply is going to expand significantly in order to satisfy current demand in a reasonable timeframe. Since, as mentioned, demand will drop back down once people try out their new toys, you'll see a more drastic market crash than typical business-as-usual crashes (IMHO). C. It takes time to spin up production. Materials have to be reacted, BPCs have to be reverse-engineered, then the items themselves have to be manufactured. I would expect that supply is only just now starting to see the effects of expanded production lines. Yes, prices will certainly stay higher-than-average for some time, my guess would be on the order of a few weeks... at which point they'll start dropping pretty fast (once FOTM-manufacturers realize they're still sitting on the same hulls they built a week ago, and they have a bunch more coming out of the oven). Sure, you'll see oversupply before the crash, but I expect it will be for a much shorter time than you are expecting. * [ SIG] * Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle! [ /sig ]
Vilgan Mazran Explosive Decompression.	Posted - 2010.12.28 01:27:00 - [26] There was no decrease in drop rate. Drop rate is the same as before. Current spike is due to 2 things as has been somewhat noted: 1) Higher demand due to sp refund. 2) Speculation on lower supply in coming months due to two differences looming in the future. First difference is difficulty level with sleepers actually neuting now. Some people won't mind, but people who run around active tanking C3s and C4s will not be happy. Other major difference is that we are a few weeks away from Incursions, which will provide a new option for group PvE for the first time since Apocrypha. C4-C6 space will no longer be the only option for people who ALSO want to pve as a group instead of the pvp as a group pve solo mentality that dominates most of the game. Kind of amusing at people just noticing this now. It's been pretty obvious for months. I wouldn't recommend buying in at 8+ mil tho as the market has already adjusted a lot and might stop there for a while or permanently. Anyone who depends on t3 production as a passive source of income and didn't plan for this is a moron though. I know I had about 300 T3 hulls chilling for the impending increase (most of which have sold now) and doubt I'm the only one.
Alice Celadon	Posted - 2010.12.28 01:46:00 - [27] Originally by: Vilgan Mazran There was no decrease in drop rate. Drop rate is the same as before. Current spike is due to 2 things as has been somewhat noted: 1) Higher demand due to sp refund. 2) Speculation on lower supply in coming months due to two differences looming in the future. First difference is difficulty level with sleepers actually neuting now. Some people won't mind, but people who run around active tanking C3s and C4s will not be happy. Other major difference is that we are a few weeks away from Incursions, which will provide a new option for group PvE for the first time since Apocrypha. C4-C6 space will no longer be the only option for people who ALSO want to pve as a group instead of the pvp as a group pve solo mentality that dominates most of the game. Kind of amusing at people just noticing this now. It's been pretty obvious for months. I wouldn't recommend buying in at 8+ mil tho as the market has already adjusted a lot and might stop there for a while or permanently. Anyone who depends on t3 production as a passive source of income and didn't plan for this is a moron though. I know I had about 300 T3 hulls chilling for the impending increase (most of which have sold now) and doubt I'm the only one. See? Occasionally you can even find correct information in MD. I'd point out that even passive tengu setups are very affected by the upcoming neut changes. C4s-C6s are commonly run with groups of RR tengus. It has been reported on Sisi that the sleepers neut RR tengus to the point that they can't keep their hardeners going even with the addition of local cap boosting.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.12.28 01:51:00 - [28] Bought over 300 units at sub 6m and sold at 8m. Seems my plan worked just right.
Alice Celadon	Posted - 2010.12.28 04:37:00 - [29] Lol. 600mil? I'm not impressed, and at that volume you had pretty much nothing to do with the price change.
Lecherito	Posted - 2010.12.28 07:13:00 - [30] Try moving 4+ thousand of these in a span of 48 hours, and then you'll start to understand the gravity of the situation. -L

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{Arbi-Sleeper PWN} - about 15m

{Hurricane-Sleeper PWN} - about 45m