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Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.20 01:18:00 - [1] As we learned in the financial collapse in 2007, one of the worst aspects of a market is that people who make predictions that turn out to be hilariously wrong rarely face accountability for those failed predictions: they get swept into the dustbin of history and are quickly forgotten. Goonswarm, one of the financial powerhouses of EVE, has a sophisticated response to this: our culture of trolling each other ensures that when you are wrong, and hilariously so, you will have your nose rubbed in it until you learn never to make such a dumb mistake again. As part of a court-mandated community service requirement, I'm here to bring this information to you. Today's lesson is SencneS, one of the dumbest people on this forum. In the leadup to Tyrannis, a few very smart individuals (mostly in Goonswarm) did the math and realized what a **up CCP had made. Now, people can be forgiven for missing that - after all, every single person at CCP did, despite people buying 20m guidance systems in one go all of a sudden, and they get paid for this. However, in the aftermath of Tyrannis, otherwise known as the "oops, didn't think that one through: market edition" it became obvious to everyone but the dumbest of souls that CCP had made a massive up regarding seeded NPC products. I present to you the dumbest of those ups, someone people actually trusted with their money: Originally by:** SencneS You're dreaming if you think they'll[weasel note: this refers to guidance systems] hit 20K a unit. For further hilarity, see: http://www.eve-search.com/thread/1347782/page/2#46 Guidance systems are, of course, currently at ~20k. That's below their current build cost: they will undoutably continue to go up. For the record, 1b invested before launch (at 418 per unit) would have gotten you ~2.39m guidance systems, currently worth ~47b. Had SencneS's stupidity properly been pointed out repeatedly, his nose rubbed in his abject failure so strongly until the stench would never go away, many MDers would have recieved their ebank deposits back, and, like goons, been able to pick out which kind of titan they'd like to buy. I hope this has been edifying for you, and thank you.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.20 19:55:00 - [2] Originally by: Ray McCormack It's like the special kid laughing at the cool guy when he bumbles in front of the hot chick. So cute. I would do one of these for you but you had the courtesy to post it yourself better than I ever could, so thank you
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:05:00 - [3] Originally by: SencneS It's heart warming to know that I effected this guy so much that he remembered a conversation that happened YEARS ago, only to come back and attempt to rub my nose in it.. If being remembered in a treasure in which people seek, I guess being remembered by Goons in EVE is the like finding the "Ark of the Covenant".. "affected" and July 2010 is less than a year ago, not YEARS, though I think we already demonstrated pretty handily you're horrible at math
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:06:00 - [4] and the treasure I seek is heaping piles of isk, and having 4.8m guidance systems tends to get that
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:42:00 - [5] Originally by: SencneS You do realize PI has changed since that was posted right. Which pretty much voids every single prediction anyone made before the change. So clap clap clap for resurrecting a prediction which when posted at the time was STILL correct all the way up until CCP changed the mechanic. Good game though, it was worth the laugh. quoting this so you can't edit it
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:47:00 - [6] SencneS, as part of your campaign to not have been the least accurate forecaster since Neville "Peace In Our Time" Chaimberlin, perhaps you'd like to elaborate on how the PI changes are what has caused guidance systems to rise, bearing in mind literally nobody was making them. Everything the goons were telling you has come to pass, and the only reason guidance systems were lagging behind other p3's was not the depletion mechanic (irrelevant, as they've been hugely below build cost) but because the gigantic stockpiles held by our more impatient members were depressing the market. As those die, guidance systems returns to parity with other p3's.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:07:00 - [7] Originally by: Shar Tegral The other side of this story is: How many different NPC goods did you go out and buy? How many have returned such sums to you? How long did you have to wait for significant returns to arrive? Mind you, I really don't care about any of the answers. I still applaud your windfall (which is what it was after all) and I still respect Scenecs ability to think through a situation. (Even when I disagree with him.) Being wrong is not the crime, trying to appear infallible is a crime of dishonesty. So... care to admit that you've been wrong? Here and there sometimes? In the end, right then but wrong this year. Scenecs has clearly not learned his lesson: his post illustrates a glaring deficency in his knowledge of the subject even nine months later. As for guidance systems, there was literally no way that wouldn't pay off: it was a p3 seeded at 418isk. The "risk", that we made clear to everyone, wasn't a market risk, it was CCP wising up in time. As for NPC products, goons (and I) went big on guidance systems (known to be long-term as we knew how much we'd bought) and silicate glass/construction blocks/consumer electronics (I only had SC and CE) all of which paid off hugely. However, like I said, you can't really fault everyone for not being smarter than CCP. However, once it went live and people were posting in detail about it, you can't hide behind 'well everyone is wrong sometimes': given all the information staring him in the face, SeneceS still was hilariously wrong. As for guidance systems, we bought them at 418 isk. Patch day, spiking them to 5k, was a 20x return alone. We're just being greedy and holding out for the 60k it'll eventually hit, since it's a much better way to keep giant sums of money working for you than, say, letting Seneces and the rest of the e-bank crew invest it in T2 bpos.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:28:00 - [8] Originally by: Caldariftw123 Originally by: Weaselior We're just being greedy and holding out for the 60k it'll eventually hit Curious, why do you think 60K is viable? Where do you get the figure 60K from? I mean, a year later they are barely at 20k and been hovering at the same rough price for over a month now. It'll eventually reach parity with the other p3s that were never seeded. The issue is when. For most PI products (and other player-created products) the price is a function of the effort required to make them and the input price. For some other products skills and startup capital are involved (though they only slow the normalization of prices to the effort+inputs price). Guidance systems, however, is not. It's massively stockpiled - mostly by goons, but there's at least one significant holder outside our alliance we discovered through market logs - and the price is severely depressed from where it 'should' be: I would be shocked if anyone in the entire game is making GS from scratch. If they are, they're losing money hand over fist. That means the price is largely dictated by three things: the size of the remaining stockpiles, the price the stockpilers want for their stockpile, the number (more stockpilers: more price wars, less stockpilers: less price wars). Since guidance systems have made their owners massively rich, they can sell off small portions to satisfy temporary debts. What you see in the market is series of price jumps, where the GS people are willing to sell at a perticular price point is exhausted, causing the price to spike. This is usually above the next price point, so you see it getting warred up and down around that next price point until finally that group is exhausted. At some point before price parity with other p3's, it'll probably behoove me to liquidate and put my money in something with a better monthly return, but the sort of effortless riskless returns holding guidance systems gives you is pretty rare in eve, I could probably only match it though titan BPO copying in an upgraded 0.0 outpost.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:39:00 - [9] Originally by: Ave Volta The best revenge is living well. Coming back after years to say 'I told you so' just reflects poorly. If you want a financial analysis contest, post some formerly unknown price predictions here, now, that have nothing to do with PI. Then we can judge you as you have judged. No need to wait for patch changes, that just makes it easier. I only really do patch speculation and then live off the proceeds in the meantime, and there only stuff currently speculatable is the new types of deadspace mods, which would only push prices down. Since you can't short in eve, nothing handy to speculate on - plus, patch speculation is all about an informational edge so you won't see me posting it here for md-cred, which I have no use for. However, I was one of many goons crowing about PI shortly after it was unseeded, so I can easily be judged. And this isn't about revenge, this is a public service to MDers in the hopes that greater accountability will improve this forum.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:03:00 - [10] Edited by: Weaselior on 21/03/2011 18:04:30 guidance systems are a p3 you idiot you make p3s (and p4s, the driver of demand for p3s) with factory planets in perimiter which you touch once a week do you know anything at all
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:39:00 - [11] Originally by: SencneS You're clearly enraged by how your intention backfired on you and you're posting nonsense, I don't care where people build P3/4 I didn't even mention it, just mentioned that people can use PI easily now, so it's more attractive for produces on all levels. Because it's easier to use the more accurate the "right" price will become. What you spewed out above has nothing to do with what what I said. Where people build p3s and p4s matters because the process was utterly unaffected by the PI change, you don't build them on extractor planets, you build them on factory planets. These are types of setups, not locations. Since the demand for guidance systems (used by p4s and drone manufacturing) was unaffected, the supply was unaffected (nobody was producing them to begin with because it was a net loss, and still is), your claim the patch is what made me right is clearly wrong. The facts have demonstrated your ability to understand PI is hilariously terrible. You threw your reputation behind guidance systems never being profitable, which has been completely smashed by reality. You threw your reputation behind metals being profitable, and that prediction hasn't been true for a single day since you made it months ago. Worse, given the inescapable evidence of your failure, you choose to double down on it and claim PI changes and not your abject failure to understand the underlying economics are at fault. You've **** on the rug and now I'm going to rub your nose in it until you learn not to do that again.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:48:00 - [12] I also have no doubt Seneces is mashing the report button on each and every one of my posts crying for a GM to come and make the bad man stop.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:16:00 - [13] Originally by: Shar Tegral Now, if you're like me you've been buying up materials for Guidance Systems (cheap) and letting them be built for personal use as well as potential market demand... ... Things look bright. Why would you buy the parts (10 transmitters for a total of 69k, 10 water-cooled CPUs (35k) to make 3 guidance systems (60k) instead of buying 5 guidance systems? Likewise, why would you build the guidance systems once you had the transmitters and water-cooled CPU's, for a net loss of 40% of the value?
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:37:00 - [14] Originally by: Shar Tegral In the politest tone possible: Why would I answer? If I'm doing something stupid, don't get in my way. If I'm doing something smart, not putting you in my way. Because you posted enough that you clearly wanted to talk about it, so I figure you'd discuss the obvious question.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 20:09:00 - [15] Originally by: SencneS I think I've done pretty good here not posting walls of text I could have easily flooded with him. :) Besides, he doesn't need any assistance from me to make him look the fool, he's doing that well enough by himself. Poor Weaselior indeed.... I would dearly like to see these walls of text that you think will vindicate you more than me simply posting the price history of GS and metals over the past year.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 22:42:00 - [16] Originally by: SencneS Those walls of text wouldn't have been posts in an attempt to validate a claim I know to be void due to Mechanical changes made by CCP. There is no point in standing behind a claim in the current environment, which has changed since the claim was made.. Only you seem to think that is acceptable, most others know this to be an idiotic concept. You mean the mechanical change I already explained doesn't affect p3 demand and never would have, or the mechanical change that made another prediction never correct for a single day for months before it? You might as well claim incursions did it, though I am not shocked you're trying to claim "you know" that you were in the right rather than trying to claim a supply boost boosted prices which is something even you would probably not be able to type out without going 'wait a minute'.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.22 04:41:00 - [17] This is merely a community service, to illustrate an effective method for repressing bad economic forecasting. If I ever need money all that badly I can merely dip into the veritable rivers of technetium our region produces.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.22 13:58:00 - [18] Originally by: Hexxx Originally by: Weaselior If I ever need an ego boost all that badly I can merely dip into the veritable rivers of the anti-elitist threads our forum produces. Wut? the correct catchprase for that sort of post is "fixed that for you" or ftfy
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 02:02:00 - [19] Originally by: SencneS Which is the lesser of two evils? Forecasting the price of something will triple, or the counter argument that the it will not go anywhere. the one that's right
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 15:55:00 - [20] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo Edited by: Spergy McSpergo on 24/03/2011 07:02:23 If you think Weaselior's posting is bad here, you should see it over on Something Awful. I've never seen someone have such an inflated ego over a video game in my life, and I've seen a lot, especially over on SA. I have to post with a throwaway alt otherwise he would probably ban me for posting this. you're just bitter because trolling EO is like shooting fish in a barrel and i just can't help myself best of luck getting the corp back to above three members, remember the wages of :****goons: are being locked in a dead forum with only penif to talk to
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 15:58:00 - [21] you're syndemic right, i wouldn't ban you, your impotent rage is one of the best parts of playing eve :3:
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 21:13:00 - [22] i'm pretty sure they hit their mark pretty solidly if they made you so mad you rolled a alt just to try to troll me on eve-o then again I already knew that before you showed up here :3:
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 21:15:00 - [23] Edited by: Weaselior on 24/03/2011 21:15:31 and being outed for ****posting on eveo, how could you have ever found out my deep dark secret :ohdear: though it is pretty hilarious that someone from EO accuses me of taking the game to seriously it warms my heart
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 22:14:00 - [24] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo Yes I care so very deeply about some ******s internet posting. How did you know. you rolled an alt just to try to troll me without revealing who you are i'm pretty sure that's a deep level of care
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 22:14:00 - [25] also a 5 minute gap between your posts, a shameful doublepost
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.25 00:24:00 - [26] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo No, I came here to share with my fellow forumgoers about your odd forum behavior how its you behave on other forums as well and you should be pretty much taken with a grain of salt. If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. I did not address you until you decided to address me. It's apparent you have more IRL issues than we could ever imagine, its bursting through your posting like a goddamn xenomorph. When you take as much time as you did to post such a long and comprehensive thread about someones posts from 8 months ago, about crap no one cares about, and is relevant to no one in any way shape or form, except in your own mind and this somehow makes you a better person, there is something wrong with you. My guess is you are merely try to compensate for your failings by lording over people in a video game, but I am not a psychologist. if you want a link to how to do a good callout i can supply you with one here you go: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1484649 try imitating that one

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