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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.20 01:18:00 -
[1]
As we learned in the financial collapse in 2007, one of the worst aspects of a market is that people who make predictions that turn out to be hilariously wrong rarely face accountability for those failed predictions: they get swept into the dustbin of history and are quickly forgotten.
Goonswarm, one of the financial powerhouses of EVE, has a sophisticated response to this: our culture of trolling each other ensures that when you are wrong, and hilariously so, you will have your nose rubbed in it until you learn never to make such a dumb mistake again. As part of a court-mandated community service requirement, I'm here to bring this information to you.
Today's lesson is SencneS, one of the dumbest people on this forum. In the leadup to Tyrannis, a few very smart individuals (mostly in Goonswarm) did the math and realized what a ****up CCP had made. Now, people can be forgiven for missing that - after all, every single person at CCP did, despite people buying 20m guidance systems in one go all of a sudden, and they get paid for this. However, in the aftermath of Tyrannis, otherwise known as the "oops, didn't think that one through: market edition" it became obvious to everyone but the dumbest of souls that CCP had made a massive ****up regarding seeded NPC products.
I present to you the dumbest of those ****ups, someone people actually trusted with their money:
 Originally by: SencneS
You're dreaming if you think they'll[weasel note: this refers to guidance systems] hit 20K a unit.
For further hilarity, see: http://www.eve-search.com/thread/1347782/page/2#46
Guidance systems are, of course, currently at ~20k. That's below their current build cost: they will undoutably continue to go up. For the record, 1b invested before launch (at 418 per unit) would have gotten you ~2.39m guidance systems, currently worth ~47b.
Had SencneS's stupidity properly been pointed out repeatedly, his nose rubbed in his abject failure so strongly until the stench would never go away, many MDers would have recieved their ebank deposits back, and, like goons, been able to pick out which kind of titan they'd like to buy. I hope this has been edifying for you, and thank you.
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Atima
Minmatar
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2011.03.20 01:27:00 -
[2]
Reserving 1000 Shares, Pending audit.
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Tutskii
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Posted - 2011.03.20 01:33:00 -
[3]
I would like the red Titan please.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari
T2 Technologies Unlimited
SRS.
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Posted - 2011.03.20 01:50:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Brock Nelson on 20/03/2011 01:54:10
Ah yes, because everyone who's well versed in guessing what CCP will do to the game, especially the effect on market 2 full years before it actually happens...
Except for SencneS obviously 
May I suggest to the court that this thread not be counted toward your community service, obviously I'm not served by you...
Edit: Well, I read the post quoted and I obviously mis-read the date as being from 2007...
Mock me now please 
Investor Relation | IPO Doc |
Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar
Infinitus Sapientia
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Posted - 2011.03.20 09:38:00 -
[5]
Clearly I chose the wrong time to take a break from EVE .
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Companion Qube
Minmatar
Electron Conservation Inc
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Posted - 2011.03.20 11:01:00 -
[6]
Weaselior, I think I love you. Can I have your babies?
drunkpoasting best poasting |
Fulbert
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.03.20 11:12:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Fulbert on 20/03/2011 11:11:54
Cool story bro.
MD is 99% manipulation, misinformation, and trolling. So why should we have cared of Sencnes opinion?
____________________________________
Fulbert
Industrialist - Casual Trader
EVE Online, the best browser MMO of them all |
Hatsan Fedora
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Posted - 2011.03.20 11:49:00 -
[8]
I endorse this message.
Uncle Hats the Second
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Julius Rigel
Sub-warp Racing Venture
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Posted - 2011.03.20 11:53:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Tutskii
I would like the red Titan please.
I want the one that comes with a cuddly teddy.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2011.03.20 12:08:00 -
[10]
I knew it, eventually Scences predictions would be proven wrong. And it only took 3.5 years!
Feel the burn!
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.20 12:23:00 -
[11]
No mention of pubbies in that entire post? I'm disappointed, this is not down to the usual standard of goon **** posting.
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Zeta Zhul
Caldari
Preemptive Paranoia
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Posted - 2011.03.20 17:14:00 -
[12]
I can haz titan in Hello Kitty motif?
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Ray McCormack
Nordar Innovations.
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Posted - 2011.03.20 17:40:00 -
[13]
It's like the special kid laughing at the cool guy when he bumbles in front of the hot chick. So cute.
I agree that shooting people with a headache in the head is a good idea, because it will stop their headaches. |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.20 19:08:00 -
[14]
The post-ebank-implosion md regulars have long suggested that sencnes in particular among the old "md elite" is a ****ing idiot. We also suggested that EBank either liquidate or at least follow an aggressive recovery plan, including patch speculation, as opposed to trying to make a 200% return on 600b through BPO copying and the like.
We've been holding people to account since the beginning, it just hasn't made a difference because they were only listening to themselves or each other.
I think the only person who doesn't now think sencnes is an idiot is sencnes, with perhaps a smattering of other old "md elite" circle-jerk idiots.
TL;DR welcome to two years ago
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.20 19:55:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Ray McCormack
It's like the special kid laughing at the cool guy when he bumbles in front of the hot chick. So cute.
I would do one of these for you but you had the courtesy to post it yourself better than I ever could, so thank you
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pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.20 21:57:00 -
[16]
Here's a fun exercise in price points: remember this old thread where SencneS was encouraging people to buy precious metals when goons were encouraging people to buy guidance systems and consumer electronics?
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1348747&page=2#41
commodity: avg daily transaction value 2010.07.12 // today:
Precious Metals: 620.00 // 600.60
Guidance Systems: 10000.02 // 17092.73
Consumer Electronics: 1751.12 // 8051.24
CE has about 2 days' of volume before it cracks 9k. GS is now a clear winner to hit 35, 40, hell maybe even 60k long term. If you took SencneS' advice to buy P1s you actually lost isk.
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2011.03.20 22:01:00 -
[17]
That may be true, but at least she has saved her reputation now by being a director of BSAC.
We can all safely say that the long line of total failure ends here 
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Hexxx
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.21 04:10:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
The post-ebank-implosion md regulars have long suggested that sencnes in particular among the old "md elite" is a ****ing idiot. We also suggested that EBank either liquidate or at least follow an aggressive recovery plan, including patch speculation, as opposed to trying to make a 200% return on 600b through BPO copying and the like.
We've been holding people to account since the beginning, it just hasn't made a difference because they were only listening to themselves or each other.
I think the only person who doesn't now think sencnes is an idiot is sencnes, with perhaps a smattering of other old "md elite" circle-jerk idiots.
TL;DR welcome to two years ago
I guess I'm an old MD elite circle jerk idiot. 
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flakeys
The Great cornholio's
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Posted - 2011.03.21 07:07:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal
That may be true, but at least she has saved her reputation now by being a director of BSAC.
We can all safely say that the long line of total failure ends here
Ouch dude ... 
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Magnu Stormhawk
Stormhawk Enterprises
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Posted - 2011.03.21 08:52:00 -
[20]
Wow, Goons are so cool.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.21 12:38:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Hexxx
I guess I'm an old MD elite circle jerk idiot.
Yes, you're exactly who I had in mind.
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Hexxx
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.21 13:34:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Hexxx
I guess I'm an old MD elite circle jerk idiot.
Yes, you're exactly who I had in mind.
I appreciate your willingness to share. 
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2011.03.21 14:41:00 -
[23]
It's heart warming to know that I effected this guy so much that he remembered a conversation that happened YEARS ago, only to come back and attempt to rub my nose in it.. If being remembered in a treasure in which people seek, I guess being remembered by Goons in EVE is the like finding the "Ark of the Covenant"..
Amarr for Life |
YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2011.03.21 14:56:00 -
[24]
Originally by: SencneS
It's heart warming to know that I effected this guy so much that he remembered a conversation that happened YEARS ago, only to come back and attempt to rub my nose in it.. If being remembered in a treasure in which people seek, I guess being remembered by Goons in EVE is the like finding the "Ark of the Covenant"..
If it makes you feel better, SencneS, for me you'll always be a hot blonde... and those are timeless. hahah
Black Sun Empire |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.21 16:05:00 -
[25]
Originally by: SencneS
It's heart warming to know that I effected this guy so much that he remembered a conversation that happened YEARS ago, only to come back and attempt to rub my nose in it.. If being remembered in a treasure in which people seek, I guess being remembered by Goons in EVE is the like finding the "Ark of the Covenant"..
"affected"
and July 2010 is less than a year ago, not YEARS, though I think we already demonstrated pretty handily you're horrible at math
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.21 16:06:00 -
[26]
and the treasure I seek is heaping piles of isk, and having 4.8m guidance systems tends to get that
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2011.03.21 16:37:00 -
[27]
You do realize PI has changed since that was posted right. Which pretty much voids every single prediction anyone made before the change. So clap clap clap for resurrecting a prediction which when posted at the time was STILL correct all the way up until CCP changed the mechanic.
Good game though, it was worth the laugh.
Amarr for Life |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.21 16:42:00 -
[28]
Originally by: SencneS
You do realize PI has changed since that was posted right. Which pretty much voids every single prediction anyone made before the change. So clap clap clap for resurrecting a prediction which when posted at the time was STILL correct all the way up until CCP changed the mechanic.
Good game though, it was worth the laugh.
quoting this so you can't edit it
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.21 16:47:00 -
[29]
SencneS, as part of your campaign to not have been the least accurate forecaster since Neville "Peace In Our Time" Chaimberlin, perhaps you'd like to elaborate on how the PI changes are what has caused guidance systems to rise, bearing in mind literally nobody was making them.
Everything the goons were telling you has come to pass, and the only reason guidance systems were lagging behind other p3's was not the depletion mechanic (irrelevant, as they've been hugely below build cost) but because the gigantic stockpiles held by our more impatient members were depressing the market. As those die, guidance systems returns to parity with other p3's.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2011.03.21 16:55:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Weaselior
quoting this so you can't edit it
That's what eve search is for iff'n you were wondering. But that's beside the point. You've made gains, I applaud you. You took a gamble and it paid off. However the part you are missing is that it was a gamble, a slightly edumatcated guess. NPC sell and buy orders were disappearing and hordes of people gambled on the outcome. Part of the story missing in this thread is the context of Scenecs statement. It was not just one single solid prediction, it had a context in the discussion. The context made it a short term statement. The other side of this story is: How many different NPC goods did you go out and buy? How many have returned such sums to you? How long did you have to wait for significant returns to arrive? Mind you, I really don't care about any of the answers. I still applaud your windfall (which is what it was after all) and I still respect Scenecs ability to think through a situation. (Even when I disagree with him.) Being wrong is not the crime, trying to appear infallible is a crime of dishonesty. So... care to admit that you've been wrong? Here and there sometimes? In the end, right then but wrong this year. Whoopdedoo.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
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