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Forecasting Accountability Station: SencneS Edition

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Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.20 01:18:00 - [1] As we learned in the financial collapse in 2007, one of the worst aspects of a market is that people who make predictions that turn out to be hilariously wrong rarely face accountability for those failed predictions: they get swept into the dustbin of history and are quickly forgotten. Goonswarm, one of the financial powerhouses of EVE, has a sophisticated response to this: our culture of trolling each other ensures that when you are wrong, and hilariously so, you will have your nose rubbed in it until you learn never to make such a dumb mistake again. As part of a court-mandated community service requirement, I'm here to bring this information to you. Today's lesson is SencneS, one of the dumbest people on this forum. In the leadup to Tyrannis, a few very smart individuals (mostly in Goonswarm) did the math and realized what a **up CCP had made. Now, people can be forgiven for missing that - after all, every single person at CCP did, despite people buying 20m guidance systems in one go all of a sudden, and they get paid for this. However, in the aftermath of Tyrannis, otherwise known as the "oops, didn't think that one through: market edition" it became obvious to everyone but the dumbest of souls that CCP had made a massive up regarding seeded NPC products. I present to you the dumbest of those ups, someone people actually trusted with their money: Originally by:** SencneS You're dreaming if you think they'll[weasel note: this refers to guidance systems] hit 20K a unit. For further hilarity, see: http://www.eve-search.com/thread/1347782/page/2#46 Guidance systems are, of course, currently at ~20k. That's below their current build cost: they will undoutably continue to go up. For the record, 1b invested before launch (at 418 per unit) would have gotten you ~2.39m guidance systems, currently worth ~47b. Had SencneS's stupidity properly been pointed out repeatedly, his nose rubbed in his abject failure so strongly until the stench would never go away, many MDers would have recieved their ebank deposits back, and, like goons, been able to pick out which kind of titan they'd like to buy. I hope this has been edifying for you, and thank you.
Atima Minmatar House of Marbles	Posted - 2011.03.20 01:27:00 - [2] Reserving 1000 Shares, Pending audit.
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.03.20 01:33:00 - [3] I would like the red Titan please.
Brock Nelson Caldari T2 Technologies Unlimited SRS.	Posted - 2011.03.20 01:50:00 - [4] Edited by: Brock Nelson on 20/03/2011 01:54:10 Ah yes, because everyone who's well versed in guessing what CCP will do to the game, especially the effect on market 2 full years before it actually happens... Except for SencneS obviously May I suggest to the court that this thread not be counted toward your community service, obviously I'm not served by you... Edit: Well, I read the post quoted and I obviously mis-read the date as being from 2007... Mock me now please Investor Relation \| IPO Doc
Hieronimus Rex Minmatar Infinitus Sapientia	Posted - 2011.03.20 09:38:00 - [5] Clearly I chose the wrong time to take a break from EVE .
Companion Qube Minmatar Electron Conservation Inc	Posted - 2011.03.20 11:01:00 - [6] Weaselior, I think I love you. Can I have your babies? drunkpoasting best poasting
Fulbert Gallente	Posted - 2011.03.20 11:12:00 - [7] Edited by: Fulbert on 20/03/2011 11:11:54 Cool story bro. MD is 99% manipulation, misinformation, and trolling. So why should we have cared of Sencnes opinion? ____________________________________ Fulbert Industrialist - Casual Trader EVE Online, the best browser MMO of them all
Hatsan Fedora	Posted - 2011.03.20 11:49:00 - [8] I endorse this message. Uncle Hats the Second
Julius Rigel Sub-warp Racing Venture	Posted - 2011.03.20 11:53:00 - [9] Originally by: Tutskii I would like the red Titan please. I want the one that comes with a cuddly teddy.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2011.03.20 12:08:00 - [10] I knew it, eventually Scences predictions would be proven wrong. And it only took 3.5 years! Feel the burn! Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.

Caldariftw123	Posted - 2011.03.20 12:23:00 - [11] No mention of pubbies in that entire post? I'm disappointed, this is not down to the usual standard of goon **** posting.
Zeta Zhul Caldari Preemptive Paranoia	Posted - 2011.03.20 17:14:00 - [12] I can haz titan in Hello Kitty motif?
Ray McCormack Nordar Innovations.	Posted - 2011.03.20 17:40:00 - [13] It's like the special kid laughing at the cool guy when he bumbles in front of the hot chick. So cute. I agree that shooting people with a headache in the head is a good idea, because it will stop their headaches.
Elise DarkStar	Posted - 2011.03.20 19:08:00 - [14] The post-ebank-implosion md regulars have long suggested that sencnes in particular among the old "md elite" is a ****ing idiot. We also suggested that EBank either liquidate or at least follow an aggressive recovery plan, including patch speculation, as opposed to trying to make a 200% return on 600b through BPO copying and the like. We've been holding people to account since the beginning, it just hasn't made a difference because they were only listening to themselves or each other. I think the only person who doesn't now think sencnes is an idiot is sencnes, with perhaps a smattering of other old "md elite" circle-jerk idiots. TL;DR welcome to two years ago
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.20 19:55:00 - [15] Originally by: Ray McCormack It's like the special kid laughing at the cool guy when he bumbles in front of the hot chick. So cute. I would do one of these for you but you had the courtesy to post it yourself better than I ever could, so thank you
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.20 21:57:00 - [16] Here's a fun exercise in price points: remember this old thread where SencneS was encouraging people to buy precious metals when goons were encouraging people to buy guidance systems and consumer electronics? http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1348747&page=2#41 commodity: avg daily transaction value 2010.07.12 // today: Precious Metals: 620.00 // 600.60 Guidance Systems: 10000.02 // 17092.73 Consumer Electronics: 1751.12 // 8051.24 CE has about 2 days' of volume before it cracks 9k. GS is now a clear winner to hit 35, 40, hell maybe even 60k long term. If you took SencneS' advice to buy P1s you actually lost isk.
Liberty Eternal	Posted - 2011.03.20 22:01:00 - [17] That may be true, but at least she has saved her reputation now by being a director of BSAC. We can all safely say that the long line of total failure ends here
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.21 04:10:00 - [18] Originally by: Elise DarkStar The post-ebank-implosion md regulars have long suggested that sencnes in particular among the old "md elite" is a ****ing idiot. We also suggested that EBank either liquidate or at least follow an aggressive recovery plan, including patch speculation, as opposed to trying to make a 200% return on 600b through BPO copying and the like. We've been holding people to account since the beginning, it just hasn't made a difference because they were only listening to themselves or each other. I think the only person who doesn't now think sencnes is an idiot is sencnes, with perhaps a smattering of other old "md elite" circle-jerk idiots. TL;DR welcome to two years ago I guess I'm an old MD elite circle jerk idiot.
flakeys The Great cornholio's	Posted - 2011.03.21 07:07:00 - [19] Originally by: Liberty Eternal That may be true, but at least she has saved her reputation now by being a director of BSAC. We can all safely say that the long line of total failure ends here Ouch dude ...
Magnu Stormhawk Stormhawk Enterprises	Posted - 2011.03.21 08:52:00 - [20] Wow, Goons are so cool.

Elise DarkStar	Posted - 2011.03.21 12:38:00 - [21] Originally by: Hexxx I guess I'm an old MD elite circle jerk idiot. Yes, you're exactly who I had in mind.
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.21 13:34:00 - [22] Originally by: Elise DarkStar Originally by: Hexxx I guess I'm an old MD elite circle jerk idiot. Yes, you're exactly who I had in mind. I appreciate your willingness to share.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.21 14:41:00 - [23] It's heart warming to know that I effected this guy so much that he remembered a conversation that happened YEARS ago, only to come back and attempt to rub my nose in it.. If being remembered in a treasure in which people seek, I guess being remembered by Goons in EVE is the like finding the "Ark of the Covenant".. Amarr for Life
YouGotRipped Ewigkeit	Posted - 2011.03.21 14:56:00 - [24] Originally by: SencneS It's heart warming to know that I effected this guy so much that he remembered a conversation that happened YEARS ago, only to come back and attempt to rub my nose in it.. If being remembered in a treasure in which people seek, I guess being remembered by Goons in EVE is the like finding the "Ark of the Covenant".. If it makes you feel better, SencneS, for me you'll always be a hot blonde... and those are timeless. hahah Black Sun Empire
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:05:00 - [25] Originally by: SencneS It's heart warming to know that I effected this guy so much that he remembered a conversation that happened YEARS ago, only to come back and attempt to rub my nose in it.. If being remembered in a treasure in which people seek, I guess being remembered by Goons in EVE is the like finding the "Ark of the Covenant".. "affected" and July 2010 is less than a year ago, not YEARS, though I think we already demonstrated pretty handily you're horrible at math
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:06:00 - [26] and the treasure I seek is heaping piles of isk, and having 4.8m guidance systems tends to get that
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:37:00 - [27] You do realize PI has changed since that was posted right. Which pretty much voids every single prediction anyone made before the change. So clap clap clap for resurrecting a prediction which when posted at the time was STILL correct all the way up until CCP changed the mechanic. Good game though, it was worth the laugh. Amarr for Life
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:42:00 - [28] Originally by: SencneS You do realize PI has changed since that was posted right. Which pretty much voids every single prediction anyone made before the change. So clap clap clap for resurrecting a prediction which when posted at the time was STILL correct all the way up until CCP changed the mechanic. Good game though, it was worth the laugh. quoting this so you can't edit it
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:47:00 - [29] SencneS, as part of your campaign to not have been the least accurate forecaster since Neville "Peace In Our Time" Chaimberlin, perhaps you'd like to elaborate on how the PI changes are what has caused guidance systems to rise, bearing in mind literally nobody was making them. Everything the goons were telling you has come to pass, and the only reason guidance systems were lagging behind other p3's was not the depletion mechanic (irrelevant, as they've been hugely below build cost) but because the gigantic stockpiles held by our more impatient members were depressing the market. As those die, guidance systems returns to parity with other p3's.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2011.03.21 16:55:00 - [30] Originally by: Weaselior quoting this so you can't edit it That's what eve search is for iff'n you were wondering. But that's beside the point. You've made gains, I applaud you. You took a gamble and it paid off. However the part you are missing is that it was a gamble, a slightly edumatcated guess. NPC sell and buy orders were disappearing and hordes of people gambled on the outcome. Part of the story missing in this thread is the context of Scenecs statement. It was not just one single solid prediction, it had a context in the discussion. The context made it a short term statement. The other side of this story is: How many different NPC goods did you go out and buy? How many have returned such sums to you? How long did you have to wait for significant returns to arrive? Mind you, I really don't care about any of the answers. I still applaud your windfall (which is what it was after all) and I still respect Scenecs ability to think through a situation. (Even when I disagree with him.) Being wrong is not the crime, trying to appear infallible is a crime of dishonesty. So... care to admit that you've been wrong? Here and there sometimes? In the end, right then but wrong this year. Whoopdedoo. Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.

Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:07:00 - [31] Originally by: Shar Tegral The other side of this story is: How many different NPC goods did you go out and buy? How many have returned such sums to you? How long did you have to wait for significant returns to arrive? Mind you, I really don't care about any of the answers. I still applaud your windfall (which is what it was after all) and I still respect Scenecs ability to think through a situation. (Even when I disagree with him.) Being wrong is not the crime, trying to appear infallible is a crime of dishonesty. So... care to admit that you've been wrong? Here and there sometimes? In the end, right then but wrong this year. Scenecs has clearly not learned his lesson: his post illustrates a glaring deficency in his knowledge of the subject even nine months later. As for guidance systems, there was literally no way that wouldn't pay off: it was a p3 seeded at 418isk. The "risk", that we made clear to everyone, wasn't a market risk, it was CCP wising up in time. As for NPC products, goons (and I) went big on guidance systems (known to be long-term as we knew how much we'd bought) and silicate glass/construction blocks/consumer electronics (I only had SC and CE) all of which paid off hugely. However, like I said, you can't really fault everyone for not being smarter than CCP. However, once it went live and people were posting in detail about it, you can't hide behind 'well everyone is wrong sometimes': given all the information staring him in the face, SeneceS still was hilariously wrong. As for guidance systems, we bought them at 418 isk. Patch day, spiking them to 5k, was a 20x return alone. We're just being greedy and holding out for the 60k it'll eventually hit, since it's a much better way to keep giant sums of money working for you than, say, letting Seneces and the rest of the e-bank crew invest it in T2 bpos.
Caldariftw123	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:15:00 - [32] Originally by: Weaselior We're just being greedy and holding out for the 60k it'll eventually hit Curious, why do you think 60K is viable? Where do you get the figure 60K from? I mean, a year later they are barely at 20k and been hovering at the same rough price for over a month now.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:28:00 - [33] Originally by: Caldariftw123 Originally by: Weaselior We're just being greedy and holding out for the 60k it'll eventually hit Curious, why do you think 60K is viable? Where do you get the figure 60K from? I mean, a year later they are barely at 20k and been hovering at the same rough price for over a month now. It'll eventually reach parity with the other p3s that were never seeded. The issue is when. For most PI products (and other player-created products) the price is a function of the effort required to make them and the input price. For some other products skills and startup capital are involved (though they only slow the normalization of prices to the effort+inputs price). Guidance systems, however, is not. It's massively stockpiled - mostly by goons, but there's at least one significant holder outside our alliance we discovered through market logs - and the price is severely depressed from where it 'should' be: I would be shocked if anyone in the entire game is making GS from scratch. If they are, they're losing money hand over fist. That means the price is largely dictated by three things: the size of the remaining stockpiles, the price the stockpilers want for their stockpile, the number (more stockpilers: more price wars, less stockpilers: less price wars). Since guidance systems have made their owners massively rich, they can sell off small portions to satisfy temporary debts. What you see in the market is series of price jumps, where the GS people are willing to sell at a perticular price point is exhausted, causing the price to spike. This is usually above the next price point, so you see it getting warred up and down around that next price point until finally that group is exhausted. At some point before price parity with other p3's, it'll probably behoove me to liquidate and put my money in something with a better monthly return, but the sort of effortless riskless returns holding guidance systems gives you is pretty rare in eve, I could probably only match it though titan BPO copying in an upgraded 0.0 outpost.
Kaivar Lancer General Exports	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:33:00 - [34] hahahah
Ave Volta Black Frog Logistics Red-Frog	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:34:00 - [35] The best revenge is living well. Coming back after years to say 'I told you so' just reflects poorly. If you want a financial analysis contest, post some formerly unknown price predictions here, now, that have nothing to do with PI. Then we can judge you as you have judged. No need to wait for patch changes, that just makes it easier. -------------------------------- RED FROG ALLIANCE: Here, There, and Everywhere.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:39:00 - [36] Originally by: Ave Volta The best revenge is living well. Coming back after years to say 'I told you so' just reflects poorly. If you want a financial analysis contest, post some formerly unknown price predictions here, now, that have nothing to do with PI. Then we can judge you as you have judged. No need to wait for patch changes, that just makes it easier. I only really do patch speculation and then live off the proceeds in the meantime, and there only stuff currently speculatable is the new types of deadspace mods, which would only push prices down. Since you can't short in eve, nothing handy to speculate on - plus, patch speculation is all about an informational edge so you won't see me posting it here for md-cred, which I have no use for. However, I was one of many goons crowing about PI shortly after it was unseeded, so I can easily be judged. And this isn't about revenge, this is a public service to MDers in the hopes that greater accountability will improve this forum.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.21 17:52:00 - [37] Edited by: SencneS on 21/03/2011 17:55:19 You're out of your league... I'll hammer this last nail in you coffin since you insist... "... perhaps you'd like to elaborate on how the PI changes are what have caused guidance systems to rise, bearing in mind literally nobody was making them."" Sure... Probably the biggest effect on anything in EVE, usability changes. Any change CCP make to usability would push price of that product to be more "inline" with what people would be willing to do the work for. I'll make this clear because youÆre a real bright spark... PI at the time was a highly niche market, only those who could stand to click away endlessly for hours on end across multiple accounts used PI to make money, did it. These people are clearly smarter then you, because like me, they wouldn't waste their time producing something which for all their efforts to be wasted because someone with a big inventory will come along and dump on the market the second they reached a price the NPC Stock piler will sell for. You yourself even pointed out that "no one at the time was producing it." This means it had no standing on how much time/effort/cost it took to make it. Predicting the price will not move much on something which has huge inventory already existing, in a system which is painful to use, takes time, and with little reward is reasonable assumption. Instead they produce items which NPC DIDN'T sell. Where GS's price change comes into place is simple, the easier it is to use something to more accurate the "acceptable" price is for those producing it becomes. Since PI changes where pretty much all usability changes it turned it from a click fest with the added destroy building to move your production, to movable buildings and less of a click fest, with extended time between forced interaction with PI, means more people are using it. Evidence of this is pretty obvious by sales of Command Centers, and countless threads about it on these forums. The more people using PI, the more items get produced, the more gets produced the more they spread out into other areas. Since it's considerably easier, people probably looked at the market, saw things like GS where WAY underpriced because production of them costs more, they start to consider buying the under priced items and may even add them to their own production efforts to reduce their production cost. Which is a fair enough assessment on their part, months since the last NPC orders were removed, which is a LONG time in EVE, a lot of consumption took place, people leaving the game etc. For them to start to build GS's and calculate their production cost more accurately bringing the price to more realistic effort vs reward prices means you got to resurrect a prediction based on old now invalid environment. The only thing you need to realize is how much of a bone head you want to make yourself appear to be. Edit:- Added one word. Amarr for Life
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:03:00 - [38] Edited by: Weaselior on 21/03/2011 18:04:30 guidance systems are a p3 you idiot you make p3s (and p4s, the driver of demand for p3s) with factory planets in perimiter which you touch once a week do you know anything at all
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:19:00 - [39] Originally by: Weaselior Edited by: Weaselior on 21/03/2011 18:04:30 guidance systems are a p3 you idiot you make p3s (and p4s, the driver of demand for p3s) with factory planets in perimiter which you touch once a week do you know anything at all You just keep digging that hole... Maybe you should request GM Lock of this thread, and let it go... You're clearly enraged by how your intention backfired on you and you're posting nonsense, I don't care where people build P3/4 I didn't even mention it, just mentioned that people can use PI easily now, so it's more attractive for produces on all levels. Because it's easier to use the more accurate the "right" price will become. What you spewed out above has nothing to do with what what I said. You should get another hobby, trolling me and ancient predictions on now invalid environments is clearly not your strong suit. Amarr for Life
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:33:00 - [40] Originally by: SencneS Originally by: Weaselior Edited by: Weaselior on 21/03/2011 18:04:30 guidance systems are a p3 you idiot you make p3s (and p4s, the driver of demand for p3s) with factory planets in perimiter which you touch once a week do you know anything at all You just keep digging that hole... Maybe you should request GM Lock of this thread, and let it go... You're clearly enraged by how your intention backfired on you and you're posting nonsense, I don't care where people build P3/4 I didn't even mention it, just mentioned that people can use PI easily now, so it's more attractive for produces on all levels. Because it's easier to use the more accurate the "right" price will become. What you spewed out above has nothing to do with what what I said. You should get another hobby, trolling me and ancient predictions on now invalid environments is clearly not your strong suit. Shouryuken! p.s. In before OP requests lock

Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:39:00 - [41] Originally by: SencneS You're clearly enraged by how your intention backfired on you and you're posting nonsense, I don't care where people build P3/4 I didn't even mention it, just mentioned that people can use PI easily now, so it's more attractive for produces on all levels. Because it's easier to use the more accurate the "right" price will become. What you spewed out above has nothing to do with what what I said. Where people build p3s and p4s matters because the process was utterly unaffected by the PI change, you don't build them on extractor planets, you build them on factory planets. These are types of setups, not locations. Since the demand for guidance systems (used by p4s and drone manufacturing) was unaffected, the supply was unaffected (nobody was producing them to begin with because it was a net loss, and still is), your claim the patch is what made me right is clearly wrong. The facts have demonstrated your ability to understand PI is hilariously terrible. You threw your reputation behind guidance systems never being profitable, which has been completely smashed by reality. You threw your reputation behind metals being profitable, and that prediction hasn't been true for a single day since you made it months ago. Worse, given the inescapable evidence of your failure, you choose to double down on it and claim PI changes and not your abject failure to understand the underlying economics are at fault. You've **** on the rug and now I'm going to rub your nose in it until you learn not to do that again.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:48:00 - [42] I also have no doubt Seneces is mashing the report button on each and every one of my posts crying for a GM to come and make the bad man stop.
Elise DarkStar	Posted - 2011.03.21 18:53:00 - [43] Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 21/03/2011 18:53:16 ROFL. Poor, Weaselior. Sencnes will continue to spew barely-legible nonsensical horse**** mixed with an ever increasing proportion of ad homs until you quit at your personal limit of disgust and boredom. By all means continue, but I'm warning you now that it will never end.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:03:00 - [44] Instead of continuing with this he said she said bull** I think I'll just comment on the intelligent parts of your post. (That is a loose interpretation btw.) Originally by:** Weaselior Where people build p3s and p4s matters because the process was utterly unaffected by the PI change, you don't build them on extractor planets, you build them on factory planets. I built GS's on extractor planets. I don't anymore since the PI Revision. I built GS's to supplement my manufacturing supplies. Now I would attribute the current price changes in GS's to: Dwindling NPC purchased inventory PI Revision Previously it was easy to have a mixed planet setup. Something with a little extractor and a little factory. This may seem inefficient to many but for some it was efficient enough for their purposes. For instance: I had one planet for Guidance Systems, another for Robotics. From extraction to completion. Doing this has become so awkwardly prohibitive as to be unfeasible. This being the case lazy ass factor enters the economic equation: Do I now go through the trouble of moving materials around from extractor planets to factory planets? For many people the answer is no. Tally up all the other people who found that they couldn't stand PI v 1.0 and won't touch v 2.0+. This means that alot of production is NOT being done or, with the revision, no longer being done. Factor dwindling supplies, love them drones!, and it does not take a rocket scientist to see that the price for Guidance Systems will adjust. Now, if you're like me you've been buying up materials for Guidance Systems (cheap) and letting them be built for personal use as well as potential market demand... ... Things look bright. Once the NPC purchased inventory is consumed, a future date unforeseeable - as evidenced by Scenecs long ago shelf life expired predication, then the market will be 100% PI dominated. That's the day with which I'm looking forward. (I didn't buy NPC inventory as I felt I would be cheating.) Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:16:00 - [45] Originally by: Shar Tegral Now, if you're like me you've been buying up materials for Guidance Systems (cheap) and letting them be built for personal use as well as potential market demand... ... Things look bright. Why would you buy the parts (10 transmitters for a total of 69k, 10 water-cooled CPUs (35k) to make 3 guidance systems (60k) instead of buying 5 guidance systems? Likewise, why would you build the guidance systems once you had the transmitters and water-cooled CPU's, for a net loss of 40% of the value?
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:33:00 - [46] In the politest tone possible: Why would I answer? If I'm doing something stupid, don't get in my way. If I'm doing something smart, not putting you in my way. Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:37:00 - [47] Originally by: Shar Tegral In the politest tone possible: Why would I answer? If I'm doing something stupid, don't get in my way. If I'm doing something smart, not putting you in my way. Because you posted enough that you clearly wanted to talk about it, so I figure you'd discuss the obvious question.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:52:00 - [48] Originally by: Weaselior Because you posted enough that you clearly wanted to talk about it, so I figure you'd discuss the obvious question. Not really... I just kind of hoped that I posted enough to bend this thread from epeen waving to something worth reading/posting. The choice, of course, is yours. (yours = you reading this) Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:54:00 - [49] Originally by: SencneS Predicting the price will not move much on something which has huge inventory already existing, in a system which is painful to use, takes time, and with little reward is reasonable assumption. This one sentence encapsulates SencneS' lack of ability to grasp eve markets. He neglects what PI's end products are used for -- sov structures, POS and POS mods, etc -- and instead focuses on "hey, GS suck to make and people already have them so it's reasonable to assume the price won't change." Yet it was exactly BECAUSE of those things that the price was inevitably going to rise. People weren't going to stop using POS, or stop needing sov structures. Yet the price started depressed because people already had GS, and making things is a pain (PI sucks), so demand eventually outstrips supply, and the depressed price is slowly corrected. I'll just go back to staring at my piles of several millions of units of GS and CE now, fortunate to have ignored the like of SencneS last year.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:57:00 - [50] Originally by: pmchem I'll just go back to staring at my piles of several millions of units of GS and CE now, fortunate to have ignored the like of SencneS last year. 2 ez Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.

SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.21 19:59:00 - [51] Originally by: Elise DarkStar ROFL. Poor, Weaselior. SencneS will continue to spew barely-legible nonsensical horse**** mixed with an ever increasing proportion of ad homs until you quit at your personal limit of disgust and boredom. By all means continue, but I'm warning you now that it will never end. I think I've done pretty good here not posting walls of text I could have easily flooded with him. :) Besides, he doesn't need any assistance from me to make him look the fool, he's doing that well enough by himself. Poor Weaselior indeed.... Amarr for Life
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 20:09:00 - [52] Originally by: SencneS I think I've done pretty good here not posting walls of text I could have easily flooded with him. :) Besides, he doesn't need any assistance from me to make him look the fool, he's doing that well enough by himself. Poor Weaselior indeed.... I would dearly like to see these walls of text that you think will vindicate you more than me simply posting the price history of GS and metals over the past year.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.21 20:47:00 - [53] Those walls of text wouldn't have been posts in an attempt to validate a claim I know to be void due to Mechanical changes made by CCP. There is no point in standing behind a claim in the current environment, which has changed since the claim was made.. Only you seem to think that is acceptable, most others know this to be an idiotic concept. Amarr for Life
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.21 22:42:00 - [54] Originally by: SencneS Those walls of text wouldn't have been posts in an attempt to validate a claim I know to be void due to Mechanical changes made by CCP. There is no point in standing behind a claim in the current environment, which has changed since the claim was made.. Only you seem to think that is acceptable, most others know this to be an idiotic concept. You mean the mechanical change I already explained doesn't affect p3 demand and never would have, or the mechanical change that made another prediction never correct for a single day for months before it? You might as well claim incursions did it, though I am not shocked you're trying to claim "you know" that you were in the right rather than trying to claim a supply boost boosted prices which is something even you would probably not be able to type out without going 'wait a minute'.
Misty McGinnity Mystify Trading Company	Posted - 2011.03.21 22:47:00 - [55] 20m stock, nice work OP! how long will it take to liquidate tho, last i checked theres fug all actual movement of GS in jita. & id say alot of it is margin traders. So you will be rich in say 5 years? & this thread is a semi butthurt attempt to get speculaters to buy your ****? lol.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.22 04:41:00 - [56] This is merely a community service, to illustrate an effective method for repressing bad economic forecasting. If I ever need money all that badly I can merely dip into the veritable rivers of technetium our region produces.
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.22 04:49:00 - [57] Originally by: Weaselior If I ever need an ego boost all that badly I can merely dip into the veritable rivers of the anti-elitist threads our forum produces. Wut?
UfoTRADER Relentless Technologies Quod Erat Demonstrandum	Posted - 2011.03.22 06:20:00 - [58] Originally by: Weaselior This is merely a community service, to illustrate an effective method for repressing bad economic forecasting. If I ever need money all that badly I can merely dip into the veritable rivers of technetium our region produces. Why so serious little bee? You mad?
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.22 13:58:00 - [59] Originally by: Hexxx Originally by: Weaselior If I ever need an ego boost all that badly I can merely dip into the veritable rivers of the anti-elitist threads our forum produces. Wut? the correct catchprase for that sort of post is "fixed that for you" or ftfy
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.22 14:22:00 - [60] Originally by: Weaselior Originally by: Hexxx Originally by: Weaselior If I ever need an ego boost all that badly I can merely dip into the veritable rivers of the anti-elitist threads our forum produces. Wut? the correct catchprase for that sort of post is "fixed that for you" or ftfy I like my catchphrase better.

SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.22 15:21:00 - [61] Edited by: SencneS on 22/03/2011 15:22:16 Originally by: Weaselior This is merely a community service, to illustrate an effective method for repressing bad economic forecasting. I actually take what you're trying to do seriously, it's a little miss placed though. I'll be honest but a little blunt here, so don't take this as a troll but more of an assist to you and your cause, despite you singling me out. Which is the lesser of two evils? Forecasting the price of something will triple, or the counter argument that the it will not go anywhere. If people follow the optimist they are directly impacted by the performance of the item the forecaster claims will be worth more. This could even prevent them from doing something else, something just as profitable. If they follow the pessimist they have lost nothing but also not gained anything, but they are still free to do something else if opportunity presents itself. I'm not arguing that GS's didn't have a payday, 13B profit per million units is nothing to scoff at, 2B a month or 35% monthly is decent. But it wasn't the only item to have this type of return within the same time frame. Superconductors and Synthetic Oil netted me 10B in 20 days about a month after I made the claim GS's are going nowhere. I understand your cause and I would support it, but you need to make sure it based around people claiming unrealistic and optimistic claims, rather then a conservative claim. You have worthy cause, just needed to be pointed in the right direction. Edit: Changed "had" to "have" Amarr for Life
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.22 16:38:00 - [62] Originally by: SencneS Which is the lesser of two evils? Forecasting the price of something will triple, or the counter argument that the it will not go anywhere. I tend to prefer claims based on numerical analysis which are proven correct month after month after month, which is what the whole GS/CE/etc goonswarm claims were, but that's just me.
Elise DarkStar	Posted - 2011.03.22 16:43:00 - [63] Originally by: SencneS Which is the lesser of two evils? Forecasting the price of something will triple, or the counter argument that the it will not go anywhere. Wtf is this? Postmodern finance? Your stupidity is absolutely astounding.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2011.03.22 17:08:00 - [64] Originally by: Elise DarkStar Wtf is this? Postmodern finance? Your stupidity is absolutely astounding. You're short sighted opinion is absolutely astounding. If every post you made wasn't a troll I'd actually take you more serious.. Amarr for Life
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 02:02:00 - [65] Originally by: SencneS Which is the lesser of two evils? Forecasting the price of something will triple, or the counter argument that the it will not go anywhere. the one that's right
Spergy McSpergo	Posted - 2011.03.24 06:21:00 - [66] Edited by: Spergy McSpergo on 24/03/2011 06:22:23 If you think Weasilor's posting is bad here, you should see it over on Something Awful. I've never seen someone have such an inflated ego over a video game in my life, and I've seen a lot, especially over on SA. I have to post with a throwaway alt otherwise he would probably ban me for posting this.
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.24 13:10:00 - [67] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo Edited by: Spergy McSpergo on 24/03/2011 07:02:23 If you think Weaselior's posting is bad here, you should see it over on Something Awful. I've never seen someone have such an inflated ego over a video game in my life, and I've seen a lot, especially over on SA. I have to post with a throwaway alt otherwise he would probably ban me for posting this. I'm shocked. Shocked I say.
Ray McCormack Nordar Innovations.	Posted - 2011.03.24 14:20:00 - [68] Originally by: SencneS You're Your. I agree that shooting people with a headache in the head is a good idea, because it will stop their headaches.
Roelof Kremer	Posted - 2011.03.24 14:39:00 - [69] Edited by: Roelof Kremer on 24/03/2011 14:41:54 Originally by: Ray McCormack Originally by: SencneS You're Your. XD. sorry SencneS
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 15:55:00 - [70] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo Edited by: Spergy McSpergo on 24/03/2011 07:02:23 If you think Weaselior's posting is bad here, you should see it over on Something Awful. I've never seen someone have such an inflated ego over a video game in my life, and I've seen a lot, especially over on SA. I have to post with a throwaway alt otherwise he would probably ban me for posting this. you're just bitter because trolling EO is like shooting fish in a barrel and i just can't help myself best of luck getting the corp back to above three members, remember the wages of :****goons: are being locked in a dead forum with only penif to talk to

Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 15:58:00 - [71] you're syndemic right, i wouldn't ban you, your impotent rage is one of the best parts of playing eve :3:
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.24 16:43:00 - [72] Originally by: Weaselior Originally by: Spergy McSpergo Edited by: Spergy McSpergo on 24/03/2011 07:02:23 If you think Weaselior's posting is bad here, you should see it over on Something Awful. I've never seen someone have such an inflated ego over a video game in my life, and I've seen a lot, especially over on SA. I have to post with a throwaway alt otherwise he would probably ban me for posting this. you're just bitter because trolling EO is like shooting fish in a barrel and i just can't help myself best of luck getting the corp back to above three members, remember the wages of :****goons: are being locked in a dead forum with only penif to talk to You're a winner.
Spergy McSpergo	Posted - 2011.03.24 19:55:00 - [73] Hmm, A) a moderator that spends most of his time posting unfunny "trolls" about stuff no one cares about in a forum that is noted for its harsh rules against trolling, or B) humorless ***got that takes spaceships way more seriously than anyone else and crys "troll" when he gets outted for his badposting. I'ma go with B here, Alex.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 21:13:00 - [74] i'm pretty sure they hit their mark pretty solidly if they made you so mad you rolled a alt just to try to troll me on eve-o then again I already knew that before you showed up here :3:
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 21:15:00 - [75] Edited by: Weaselior on 24/03/2011 21:15:31 and being outed for ****posting on eveo, how could you have ever found out my deep dark secret :ohdear: though it is pretty hilarious that someone from EO accuses me of taking the game to seriously it warms my heart
Spergy McSpergo	Posted - 2011.03.24 22:03:00 - [76] Yes I care so very deeply about some ******s internet posting. How did you know.
Spergy McSpergo	Posted - 2011.03.24 22:08:00 - [77] Edited by: Spergy McSpergo on 24/03/2011 22:08:29 Makes yet another post immediately after my last one, with even less content Declares some kind of "victory" for posting on the internet Is Weaselior
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 22:14:00 - [78] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo Yes I care so very deeply about some ******s internet posting. How did you know. you rolled an alt just to try to troll me without revealing who you are i'm pretty sure that's a deep level of care
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 22:14:00 - [79] also a 5 minute gap between your posts, a shameful doublepost
Spergy McSpergo	Posted - 2011.03.24 22:29:00 - [80] No, I came here to share with my fellow forumgoers about your odd forum behavior how its you behave on other forums as well and you should be pretty much taken with a grain of salt. If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. I did not address you until you decided to address me. It's apparent you have more IRL issues than we could ever imagine, its bursting through your posting like a goddamn xenomorph. When you take as much time as you did to post such a long and comprehensive thread about someones posts from 8 months ago, about crap no one cares about, and is relevant to no one in any way shape or form, except in your own mind and this somehow makes you a better person, there is something wrong with you. My guess is you are merely try to compensate for your failings by lording over people in a video game, but I am not a psychologist.

pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.24 23:29:00 - [81] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. Yeah you just made an alt account to talk about him pseudo-anonymously in a thread he started that had nothing to do with you. In old MMOs like UO we'd just call this "worship". Keep on spergin', Spergy.
Spergy McSpergo	Posted - 2011.03.24 23:48:00 - [82] Originally by: pmchem Originally by: Spergy McSpergo If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. Yeah you just made an alt account to talk about him pseudo-anonymously in a thread he started that had nothing to do with you. In old MMOs like UO we'd just call this "worship". Keep on spergin', Spergy. Cool post bro, thanks for sharing. I am glad you came here to white knight for Weaselior and hope you feel better having gotten that off your chest. o7.
Weaselior GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2011.03.25 00:24:00 - [83] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo No, I came here to share with my fellow forumgoers about your odd forum behavior how its you behave on other forums as well and you should be pretty much taken with a grain of salt. If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. I did not address you until you decided to address me. It's apparent you have more IRL issues than we could ever imagine, its bursting through your posting like a goddamn xenomorph. When you take as much time as you did to post such a long and comprehensive thread about someones posts from 8 months ago, about crap no one cares about, and is relevant to no one in any way shape or form, except in your own mind and this somehow makes you a better person, there is something wrong with you. My guess is you are merely try to compensate for your failings by lording over people in a video game, but I am not a psychologist. if you want a link to how to do a good callout i can supply you with one here you go: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1484649 try imitating that one
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2011.03.25 03:02:00 - [84] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo Originally by: pmchem Originally by: Spergy McSpergo If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. Yeah you just made an alt account to talk about him pseudo-anonymously in a thread he started that had nothing to do with you. In old MMOs like UO we'd just call this "worship". Keep on spergin', Spergy. Cool post bro, thanks for sharing. I am glad you came here to white knight for Weaselior and hope you feel better having gotten that off your chest. o7. Cool story bro!
Liberty Eternal	Posted - 2011.03.25 03:06:00 - [85] Worst thread I've read in a long while
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.03.25 03:47:00 - [86] Some people could use getting laid. Seriously. Unfortunately those that need it the most are those less likely to get it without an exchange of currency. Then again that might be for the good of mankind as a whole. I never quite got that saying about the internet and the special olympics until I read this thread.
Misty McGinnity Mystify Trading Company	Posted - 2011.03.25 04:20:00 - [87] Originally by: pmchem Originally by: Spergy McSpergo If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. Yeah you just made an alt account to talk about him pseudo-anonymously in a thread he started that had nothing to do with you. In old MMOs like UO we'd just call this "worship". Keep on spergin', Spergy. u seem mad? might wanna do your portrait before calling ppl 'alts' ****weed lol.
Jack Murder	Posted - 2011.03.25 05:26:00 - [88] PEOPLE OF EVE, I HAVE MADE BILLIONS OF SPACE DOLLARS AND THIS OTHER GUY DIDN'T. I'M TERRIFIC. HE IS PATHETIC. GOONIES #1 QTIYD.
Kaivar Lancer General Exports	Posted - 2011.03.25 05:30:00 - [89] Originally by: Spergy McSpergo No, I came here to share with my fellow forumgoers about your odd forum behavior how its you behave on other forums as well and you should be pretty much taken with a grain of salt. If you read my original post, I wasn't addressing you. I did not address you until you decided to address me. It's apparent you have more IRL issues than we could ever imagine, its bursting through your posting like a goddamn xenomorph. When you take as much time as you did to post such a long and comprehensive thread about someones posts from 8 months ago, about crap no one cares about, and is relevant to no one in any way shape or form, except in your own mind and this somehow makes you a better person, there is something wrong with you. My guess is you are merely try to compensate for your failings by lording over people in a video game, but I am not a psychologist. hahahaa
Hieronimus Rex Minmatar Infinitus Sapientia New Eden Research.	Posted - 2011.03.25 05:35:00 - [90] Originally by: Jack Murder PEOPLE OF EVE, I HAVE MADE BILLIONS OF SPACE DOLLARS AND THIS OTHER GUY DIDN'T. I'M TERRIFIC. HE IS PATHETIC. GOONIES #1 QTIYD. 50bil ISK ~ $2,000, which is evidently a lot for some people...

Jack Murder	Posted - 2011.03.25 05:37:00 - [91] now how would you know that?
Hieronimus Rex Minmatar Infinitus Sapientia New Eden Research.	Posted - 2011.03.25 05:51:00 - [92] Originally by: Jack Murder now how would you know that? I guess the value would be different if EULA compliant USD-ISK conversion were two way, but just figuring 1bil ~ 3plex ~ $45

CCP Zymurgist Gallente C C P	Posted - 2011.03.25 10:58:00 - [93] Thread locked for trolling. Zymurgist Community Representative CCP NA, EVE Online Contact Us



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