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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2011.05.11 20:17:00 -
[1]
Wondering what peoples thoughts are on the upcoming changes to agents. As far as I know there are 2 major changes with a variety of consequences/subconsequences:
1) Agent Quality removed: all agents will be -20Q lvl 1-5
2) agent divisions simplified to 3 whch will be purely kill, courier, or mining.
Consequences - I'm going to look at the consequences as isolated since many counteract each other
1) LP rewards down. Been hearing differences from 7-20% losses in LP rewards. Temporarily this will reduce the profitability of missions but the market will equilibrate which means that LP purchased items (frig/cruiser bpcs for instance) will increase in price
2) RP rewards down. Less datacores will be generated. Datacore prices will increase. Invention costs will go up. Depending on how large the market is inventors may be pushed out of certain markets that the BPOs can supply on their own. Other non-saturated/invention dominated markets will see prices increase. Could also be the case that more people start farming datacores as LvL 1 (no mission running needed) will have equal rewards.
3) more agents become useful: Eliminating the quality and divisisiins opens up a whole slew of new agents as being useful. This could result in a diaspora of mission runners. This could kill or reduce the importance of several mission trading hubs. However it will also add hubs in regions where mission runner activity increases. Regional buy orders may become more competitive.
4) Different justifications for hubs. New hubs may appear due to changes in quality/division. A system that was previously booting (all -19 and in bad divisions) may now be very good. This may make certain factions more prominent in the mission running community, which could dramitically shift prices in certain markets.
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Also the is speculation that another sp cashout will happen due to some social skills not existing. This could cause another wave of skillbook purchases, reducin the ISK supply, which could cause general temporary price depreciation, particularly in PLEX.
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anyways, these are my wild guesses. What say you?
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Kudlow N'cramer
World Eaters Excavation
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Posted - 2011.05.11 20:31:00 -
[2]
Mission hubs will definitely take a hit with more mission runners taking up shop close to the main market hubs and doing their buying/selling there.
Therefore, higher numbers in the main market hubs meaning Amarr, Rens, and Dodixie will become more like Jita in regards to trading/speculating.
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Von Kroll
Caldari Kroll's Legion
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Posted - 2011.05.11 20:42:00 -
[3]
The hardcore mission runners will just move to those systems that have L4 agents and the lowest sec-status (.5 systems). Unless they change the effect of sec status on LP rewards (which they should do if they intend on going through with this). Have a zero modifier for high-sec, a medium modifier for low-sec, and a high modifier for null-sec.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.05.11 20:54:00 -
[4]
What will they refunded skill points be allocated to, likely to Faction and T3 ships again. I don't see them spending on PI, mission runners are not in desperate need of income.
Initially LP points will be cashed as they change agents, so a short term increase in supply of cheaper LP stuff, faction ammo, charters and implants.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.11 21:10:00 -
[5]
It's a bit premature to assume whatever we see now or in the near future on SiSi will be exactly what we'll actually have later on on TQ. Even if it would be accurate, the main mission income sources for missions up to L4 in highsec were not really agent-quality and system security level related anyway, although all of them did have an influence. The combination of everything you already mentioned should not change the face of mission-running all that much, just more spread out, and yeah, the implication of that on the market could be somewhat intriguing.
The only really interesting issue you bring forth forth would be R&D agents and datacore price changes, but your conclusions regarding invention are kind of wrong. For starters, demand of T2 items is not really all that elastic at all, for a quite wide range of price changes the demand remains virtually unchanged. It's only when the price of a specific T2 item gets too close to whatever other alternatives exist that demand finally sees a change, volume-wise. In markets where invention is not profitable, prices already trend towards barely making BPO manufacture profitable, and higher datacore prices would have no effect whatsoever. In markets where invention is profitable, the price is determined by "invention PvP" and is basically a factor of minimum invented item cost plus whatever markup inventors are willing to accept - if price of invention goes up, price of items will go up by almost as much to compensate, eventually. Sure, SHORT TERM, you might see a price spike (in fact, it's almost guaranteed to happen), but it won't last long. The more datacores end up costing, the more people will be encouraged to "level up" new alts for datacore harvesting (as opposed to not bothering at all), and the theoretically possible reduction in needed standings for R&D agent access (combined with the fact you can select more efficiently clustered agents for less actual collection work) could just as well result in a long-term price DROP for datacores instead.
So, you know, the very least two sides to every story _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.05.11 21:12:00 -
[6]
LP rewards isk/lp value has been dropping rapidly over the last 2 months.
I'd guess that the anom change was a major factor in this (atlhough the market showed some weankness before the final announcment). At first it was probably savy longer term players realizing they better liquidate lp balances before more people started running missions. Now the reality of the Anom back to Lvl 4 shift is probably actually bringing more LP goods to market due to additional creation.
The problem is that its not been long enough to get understand the new flow level. I think most players let their lps store up for a few months before liquidating them. If prices are weak from the increased early liquidations, they could really fall as once the equalibrium pace of liquidations shows.
The decreased lp earnings due to lower over all agent quality will certainly be an offsetting factor. I would go along with a 20% decrease number (not sure but it will be more than that for peole running lv 18 to 20's in and continuing to do so in systems with the same sec status) The question is has there been a greater than 20% increase over the last few months of people running level 4 missions.
I suspect there has been and that the decrease in rewards is a necessary reaciton to avoid a complete collapse.
The anom nerf was also a stealth lvl 4 mission nerf to lp values.
As far as location, there will be more choices of where to locate and still earn the maximum rate available (even though the rate will be lower) . Systems with .5 sec status with poor quality agents before (poor in level, poor in agent type and mission assignment) will receive increased interest.
A place like Zorabed in Kador with a level 20 Ministry of War agent already had some of that benefit taken away by its .8 security status, but moving from a +20 to a -20 that system and agent is going to be far less relatively enticing.
Penirgman, Youl and Nakri, in Domain, (previous high mission hubs) should see decrease. Taru and Baviasi , in Tash Murkon . Over loaded systems in teh forge at present like liekuri, Otela, Poinen and Inaya with .6 sec status and just 3 jumps from jita should become yet more busy unless combat agents are removed from them.
Over all, they seem quite serious of reducing the isk faucets by eliminating access to the best anoms and reducing agent quality (which will also effect bount and completion isk rewardss)
In another thread i'v suggested that players, being human , have a guteral expectation that their income and wages should go up in nominal terms, even if it doesn't mean and increase in purchasing power. A 3% wage increase and 3% inflation is more acceptable at review time than a 0% pay raise and 0% inflation...people are just that way whether economists (the behaviorial economists are getting the point that the profit motive is only one factor in markets) believe it or not.
As things tend to be mutiplyed in the game world.. (i.e 3% monthly interest rather than anual interest) I'd feel that a reduction in isk per hour earning capablity for the average beer and pretzels mission runner isn't going to give warm feelings to playing the game.
An evening playing tanks or battlestar gallatica is that much more attractive with the meh feeling from pulling in 10% less isk and hour or something.
I think there are bean counters in charge, not salespeople, and they're going to pay an unanticpated price in lost player interest, even though for an accountant type everything looks straight forward.
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Ghoest
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Posted - 2011.05.11 21:14:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Von Kroll a medium modifier for low-sec, and a high modifier for null-sec.
Why?
If you are going to make changes based on the games reality then low sec should pay the same as nul-sec.
Wherever you went - Here you are.
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2011.05.11 21:34:00 -
[8]
@Akita
Yeah it's speculation on speculation, but why not?
Also, as to the invention stuff I think we were saying the same thing, unless I misunderstood you. Short term: Datacore supply will go down, price go up. In general invention will still dominate, invented T2 goods will increase in price,
Long term as datacore prices stay up more people may start RP farming.
Pretty sure that's what I said, although I might not have been clear.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.11 21:42:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Akita T on 11/05/2011 21:44:08
I merely took issue with the part where you said : "Depending on how large the market is inventors may be pushed out of certain markets that the BPOs can supply on their own." Changing datacore prices don't have any influence in those markets to begin with, since inventors never had a place there anyway. T2 BPOs simply "carve out" a share of the market and inventors only have wiggle room in what's left, regardless of invention-related costs. Any changes in invention costs will sooner rather than later be passed on to consumers directly.
Also, "more people start farming datacores as LvL 1 (no mission running needed) will have equal rewards" doesn't make a lot of sense -- agent LEVEL already matters a lot more than agent quality for datacore harvesting. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2011.05.11 21:51:00 -
[10]
People are lazy.. You think a long term die hard mission running will pack up and move on when they don't need to?
Mission hubs will most likely see a small decline but the demand will still be there. What will happen though is more mini-mission hubs will fire up. There are plenty of large groups of people in large corps which have their "base" of operation pretty far away from any "mission hub" because it's quieter, there is more ORE available or moons available etc. I've lived all over EVE apart from filthy Minmatar space, and I can tell you there has been plenty of level 4 agents with crappy quality that no one runs or was dishing out JUST mining missions etc.
Since you now have the option, and quality is not an issue, people who live in stations with level 4 agents will not have to travel to run missions, they can just get it at their "main base". There might even be some new people moving in ones that lived in a nearby system that also had to travel beforehand, now they only have to travel one or two jumps. They will simply move because it's so close anyway.
The effect should be a lot more mini-mission hubs.. These mini-mission hubs will attract Gypsies to sell these mission runners their trinkets. Because the market is not blind, the increase in items listed at particular stations will attract Tycoons to come in and WHIPEOUT the Gypsies with their cheap massive inventory of products!!
Ohhh the speculation could go on
Amarr for Life |
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2011.05.11 22:17:00 -
[11]
@Akita
ah ok, yeah I wasn't sure if those were right. For the invention comment vs BPO comment your argument abou elasticity makes sense. If the market was elastic inventors could get pushed out as demand dropped w/ higher prices, but as you aptly pointed out: the markets aren't elastic.
For the research agent I didn't word it well, but i guess what I meant was that the agent quality change actually increased the possible rewards for a zero standing character relative to someone that had ground out a bit of standing.
But yeah.....that STILL doesn't make much sense....
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.05.11 23:48:00 -
[12]
Originally by: SencneS People are lazy.. You think a long term die hard mission running will pack up and move on when they don't need to?
Mission hubs will most likely see a small decline but the demand will still be there. What will happen though is more mini-mission hubs will fire up. There are plenty of large groups of people in large corps which have their "base" of operation pretty far away from any "mission hub" because it's quieter, there is more ORE available or moons available etc. I've lived all over EVE apart from filthy Minmatar space, and I can tell you there has been plenty of level 4 agents with crappy quality that no one runs or was dishing out JUST mining missions etc.
Since you now have the option, and quality is not an issue, people who live in stations with level 4 agents will not have to travel to run missions, they can just get it at their "main base". There might even be some new people moving in ones that lived in a nearby system that also had to travel beforehand, now they only have to travel one or two jumps. They will simply move because it's so close anyway.
The effect should be a lot more mini-mission hubs.. These mini-mission hubs will attract Gypsies to sell these mission runners their trinkets. Because the market is not blind, the increase in items listed at particular stations will attract Tycoons to come in and WHIPEOUT the Gypsies with their cheap massive inventory of products!!
Ohhh the speculation could go on
I pretty much agree with all of that.
Change will be gradual, location is based on social ... semi-role play priorities as much as isk optimization... and even in terms of optimization , there are reasons like war dec avoidance, pos accesiblity, proximity to conected 0.0 corps etc that players will spread out (also avoiding ninja slavage frequency etc).
There will be a gradual shift towards systems with lower security status though, as over months and years ahead, corporations and players choose new home bases based on natural motivations to move that would have happened with or without the change.
That being said, there are some systems where larger perecentages of players are occupied in a large part by "power mmissioners" who were keenly focused on maximizing the quality and sec status equation, and will likely want to min max in the future. Those places will see a quick initial impact and there-after a much slower drain.
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Von Kroll
Caldari Kroll's Legion
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Posted - 2011.05.12 01:57:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Ghoest
Originally by: Von Kroll a medium modifier for low-sec, and a high modifier for null-sec.
Why?
If you are going to make changes based on the games reality then low sec should pay the same as nul-sec.
Well, the only null-sec NPC agents are in NPC null, which is basically the same as low-sec, just with bubbles, so I figure that's a tad bit more dangerous. Either way, low and null sec should still receive a decent bit more of a modifier than high.
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Jackie Fisher
Syrkos Technologies Joint Venture Conglomerate
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Posted - 2011.05.12 08:00:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Tehg Rhind
1) Agent Quality removed: all agents will be -20Q lvl 1-5
See for dev saying they will all pay out like a +20.
Joint Venture Conglomerate |
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
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Posted - 2011.05.12 08:53:00 -
[15]
Originally by: SencneS
The effect should be a lot more mini-mission hubs.. These mini-mission hubs will attract Gypsies to sell these mission runners their trinkets. Because the market is not blind, the increase in items listed at particular stations will attract Tycoons to come in and WHIPEOUT the Gypsies with their cheap massive inventory of products!!
Ohhh the speculation could go on
It's logical to say that if more mini-mission hubs will spawn, someone will supply these hubs. But don't forget, even mission runner buy the bulk of their stuff at regional hubs. Sure, some small timers will supply these hubs with ammo/missiles but i don't see in any way how this would impact regional hubs.
The impact on datacores is more interesting, currently, pilots are picking the best agents possible. If the changes go forward they will use the closest agents.
One certain effect is: More datacores will be harvested by the people who already do as (if) all agents will be Q20.
The agents being closer will result that pilots pick up their cores more frequently (as it's less of a hassle). The 'periodic' dumping effect of pilots dumping zillions of cores on the market will occus less, which lead to more stable prices.
In short, somehat lower, but more stable prices.
The question is ofcourse, will a lot of new people get into harvesting cores? IMO, i think still the SP to invest is the barrier, not the proximity of the agents.
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DrayPrescot
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Posted - 2011.05.12 10:59:00 -
[16]
The most interesting bits for me are - Player will move to new systems, if the changes provide a significant grow in ISK/LP depending on the security of a system. E.g. if a 0.5 System will create 10% more than a 1.0 System, if that is going to happen some established trade hubs will die. Maybe if the grow is significant enough some more player will move even to lowsec with negative system security (yes there are system in lowsec which have actually a negative system security and mission agents)
- Right now LP shops for cooperations are offering different items with different value, if it is changed to 3 divisions only you can bet that the items from the kill division will be less valuable than those from courier or mining. Of course it depends on which items CCP place on the kill division LP shop and how good CCP is at killing courier/mining bots.
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Iurnan Mileghere
Re-Awakened Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2011.05.12 17:45:00 -
[17]
Soundwave has noted that all agents (unsure about R&D) should be equivalent to current Quality 20, so they might just be resetting the learned values for LP and payouts.
The datacore question, though, concerns me. I expect datacore prices to increase significantly (25% or more) after the update. It might affect T2 ship prices, but modules should see a larger effect really.
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clixor
Celluloid Gurus
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Posted - 2011.05.12 23:41:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Iurnan Mileghere
The datacore question, though, concerns me. I expect datacore prices to increase significantly (25% or more) after the update. It might affect T2 ship prices, but modules should see a larger effect really.
Can you give some arguments for your line of thought? See my previous post about why i think the exact opposite is going to happen.
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Iurnan Mileghere
Re-Awakened Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2011.05.13 00:57:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Iurnan Mileghere on 13/05/2011 00:57:13 If, as you state, all of the agents actually produce as if they have quality 20 under the current system, then I agree with your conclusion: datacore production will increase and prices will decrease.
However, the testing I've seen implies that the R&D agents produce datacores as if they're quality -20. While realizing that we're still in early days, if that doesn't change then production will decrease, etc etc.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari T2 Technologies Unlimited SRS.
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Posted - 2011.05.13 01:22:00 -
[20]
Is this change an attempt by CCP to reduce the isk faucet?
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Candy Oshea
Amarr Techfree Investment Group
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Posted - 2011.05.13 01:27:00 -
[21]
The only issue i can see atm with mission grinders is Plex's being too easily attainable.
Once you have around 4m SP you can easily tank a level 4 mission or 2 a day & plex your account. In my early days, By running missions & salvaging with an alt, i could plex my account, & reprocess loot & manufacture items from it, sell & buy new stuff/upgrade.
IF rewards are nerfed by way of LP or bounties, ppl can still run missions, but they may not earn enough isk to plex their account's. so they either will have to Pay RL $$ (which is what i suspect CCP wants)or find a new source of in game income to afford a plex. namely Mining.
This folks is a stealth mining buff. ___ iCandy Bonds
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Iurnan Mileghere
Re-Awakened Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2011.05.13 02:00:00 -
[22]
Stealth mining buff? That's a bit of a stretch, I think, particularly since this opens up more level 4 agents for people to use (rather than concentrating in Emolgranlan or wherever).
I certainly don't believe they intend this to help mining. If they wanted to do that, they'd do so more directly. CCP and indirect buffs don't seem to go together.
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Florestan Bronstein
Test Alliance Please Ignore
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Posted - 2011.05.13 08:48:00 -
[23]
Originally by: DrayPrescot The most interesting bits for me are - Player will move to new systems, if the changes provide a significant grow in ISK/LP depending on the security of a system. E.g. if a 0.5 System will create 10% more than a 1.0 System, if that is going to happen some established trade hubs will die. Maybe if the grow is significant enough some more player will move even to lowsec with negative system security (yes there are system in lowsec which have actually a negative system security and mission agents)
(a) system security already makes a pretty big difference in agent payments (however, bounties are not affected) - a difference of 0.1 in system security does give you 10% better rewards.
(b) negative truesec is limited to 0.0 and agents in 0.0 do usually work for pirate factions - the LP rewards are very high (and ISK/LP is pretty good) but you also tend to destroy your standings with empire factions when working for them. I did recently consider to repurpose my empire mission alt and make him run missions for Serpentis or the Angel Cartel. I decided to hold off on that decision because - while the potential rewards look really nice - this would limit me to mission running in Fountain & Curse and if I should ever lose access to these regions having to restore standings with empire factions would be extremely tedious. It is easy to repair your standings with those pirate factions that have epic arcs but there is no such option for empire factions.
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clixor
Celluloid Gurus
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Posted - 2011.05.13 12:54:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Iurnan Mileghere Edited by: Iurnan Mileghere on 13/05/2011 00:57:13 If, as you state, all of the agents actually produce as if they have quality 20 under the current system, then I agree with your conclusion: datacore production will increase and prices will decrease.
However, the testing I've seen implies that the R&D agents produce datacores as if they're quality -20. While realizing that we're still in early days, if that doesn't change then production will decrease, etc etc.
If the last would happen, you could argue that collecting becomes more easy (as location doesnt matter anymore) and people would actually start collecting their cores and put them on the market.
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Zube Zwartraider
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Posted - 2011.05.13 14:00:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Candy Oshea The only issue i can see atm with mission grinders is Plex's being too easily attainable.
Once you have around 4m SP you can easily tank a level 4 mission or 2 a day & plex your account. In my early days, By running missions & salvaging with an alt, i could plex my account, & reprocess loot & manufacture items from it, sell & buy new stuff/upgrade.
IF rewards are nerfed by way of LP or bounties, ppl can still run missions, but they may not earn enough isk to plex their account's. so they either will have to Pay RL $$ (which is what i suspect CCP wants)or find a new source of in game income to afford a plex. namely Mining.
This folks is a stealth mining buff.
Whether players run their accounts by PLEX or subscription doesn't matter to CCP, they get paid anyway. A PLEX doesn't just spawn in the game, it is redeemed by a code that someone purchases with real money (which CCP gets)
Playing with PLEX can be seen as an end game reward, you spent a certain amount of effort, you can play the game for free now. If more players are able to reach this point, more PLEXes will be bought in exchange for ISK. However, this pool OF PLEXes can run dry since it is provided by players purchasing them for money.
Lets say that the amount of PLEXes introduced into the game doesn't change (same amount of money keeps getting spent on them). If a greater amount of players reach the end game to afford a regular PLEX, their supply will go down. This means that their ISK price will go up. This again changes the amount of players that are able to procure the needed ISK per month by doing whatever they do ingame. So playing the game for free trough PLEXes remains a reward for a select percentage of dedicated/creative players.
So my point referring to your post here is: PLEXes will not become more easily attainable.
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Lady Aja
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.05.14 11:47:00 -
[26]
after heading to a secruity agent in -0.4 i found the base lp was 10838 or 16257 if you train up the new lp skill to lvl 5. starting to think that missions wont be that borked after all.
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Icanti
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Posted - 2011.05.14 13:23:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Brock Nelson Is this change an attempt by CCP to reduce the isk faucet?
Surely the anom nerf was enough?
We already have huge deflation in eve. Its getting very boring from a speculation point of view.
Long term advice to keep purchasing power currently is to just stay in isk. Yawn.....
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Brock Nelson
Caldari T2 Technologies Unlimited SRS.
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Posted - 2011.05.14 13:47:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Icanti
Originally by: Brock Nelson Is this change an attempt by CCP to reduce the isk faucet?
Surely the anom nerf was enough?
No.
CCP sees that there is more faucet than there is sinks. In fact, I'm pretty sure more sinks were nerfed over the years (see POS fuel, shuttle, etc). It only makes sense to do the same for faucets.
Investor Relation | BSAC SE Listing |
Guttripper
Caldari State War Academy
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Posted - 2011.05.14 16:15:00 -
[29]
This seems to be (another) quick fix idea by CCP to just default the agents to a certain quality and eventually rip out the various agent related skills. Wouldn't it be more "realistic" that as more players bother an agent, his or her quality rating gets worse and while those agents off the beaten path had time to polish up their presentation and offer greater rewards? This could be further fleshed out that agents at their wit's ends offer poorer missions while those with more time (and higher quality) are able to gather greater information for better missions.
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Ghoest
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Posted - 2011.05.14 16:57:00 -
[30]
No this is a really good change.
Im not saying its perfect but its much much better than have more agents worth using. This will result in players spreading out more and thats good.
If they would increase the rewards for low sec by a multiple of 4 then we would be doing great.
Wherever you went - Here you are.
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