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Somer blink, rigged?

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Slade Trillgon Endless Possibilities Inc.	Posted - 2011.07.26 16:53:00 - [31] Originally by: Akita T He doesn't have the 100 megablinks achievement yet (like this guy) In EVE that could mean that is his alt Slade
Imperator Bloodhowl	Posted - 2011.07.26 16:57:00 - [32] honestly, I have seen enough of blink to see strange stuff but it's most likely all statistical anomalies, after all there is nothing to gain from rigging it and everyone wins eventually, you can do the maths about how often people should win but in the end it is all just probability and some days it just feels like probability hates you whilst others you can win all day long, "arkan eto" is the person with the best set of wins on any one da that I have seen, 1/4 seems to be the best way of playing megablinks whilst 3/8 seems to be the way forward with normals.
KaarBaak Minmatar No Option Intrepid Crossing	Posted - 2011.07.26 16:59:00 - [33] Originally by: Junior Frog I've always assumed lotteries are scams. They all depend on one of two things: trust (see the instructions for BIG lotteries) or an OOG website. Since trust in EVE is foolish and the OOG website can be programmed any number of ways, I don't know why anyone would participate in a lottery. For those of you insisting that someone provide proof of scam/rigging, I challenge you to prove that it ISN'T rigged. Since its a lottery, the burden of proof is really on the provider. This is why using OOG, RL, public info to base drawing numbers is best. For example, using the Powerball numbers or the DOW index or whatever. Apparently, for the participants there is enough proof and/or trust that it isn't rigged. If you don't participate, why do you care? You kind of have to go out of your way to take part in it or any lotto. If you don't trust it, don't play. What do you care if someone is (or isn't) running a scam? Are you Marshall Dillon? This whole discussion is silly and does not fall under the purview of EVE/CCP.
Izziee	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:05:00 - [34] What is blink and how can I go about getting some action?!
Steve4c	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:11:00 - [35] I agree with the OP. Here is a frequency check of mega blinks for the past few days: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16 2,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,14,15,16 2,4,5,7,8.9,11,12,14, 2,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,14 2,4,7,8,12 2 Girl wiki mainly camps 8,9.(also is the person creating the blink before you can get a look in) Tosh also has unatural streak, camping streaking numbers. I have lost over aprox 5-6 bil compiling this information - isk i have won during this time went back on playing blink. If you fill most of the board, the unstreaking numbers are much less frequent. Make up your own minds on what's going on but i feel its going beyond the laws of probability. The same faces are calling the shots... I would like also to see how much isk on tickets i have spent on mini bonk/BONK. On my profile it may show i have won 32 bil in blink prizes, the true picture is that all this isk has gone back into Sommer.
JC Anderson Caldari Noir. Noir. Mercenary Group	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:14:00 - [36] I've had plenty of friends take part, and win with the blinks. I've also had one friend whom won like 5 in a row on some of the larger ticket items like vindicators and carriers. That same friend, thinking he was going to keep winning, ended up tearing through the rest of his isk once he had a massive losing streak. ;) All in all, it really could just be random dumb luck... I'm not saying it's impossible that it is rigged, but simply trying to explain that somebody winning that many blinks does not automatically make this the case.
Junior Frog	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:18:00 - [37] Originally by: KaarBaak Apparently, for the participants there is enough proof and/or trust that it isn't rigged. If you don't participate, why do you care? You kind of have to go out of your way to take part in it or any lotto. If you don't trust it, don't play. What do you care if someone is (or isn't) running a scam? Are you Marshall Dillon? This whole discussion is silly and does not fall under the purview of EVE/CCP. The discussion is rigging lotteries, so I'm discussing rigging lotteries. The participants aren't necessarily looking for signs of rigging and may have made the classic EVE mistake of trusting someone or assuming that such things aren't possible. Should I not discuss bubble mechanics because I don't fly in 0.0 and because noobs heading out to 0.0 don't know about bubbles? Somer is a corp in EVE, so yes its definitely related content. Which is more likely--a group of players in EVE totally dedicated to selflessly giving away ISK to the people -or- a group who plays EVE like it was meant to be played and taking everyone for as much ISK as they can for as long as they can? I care who's running a scam so that I can figure out the scam and avoid it and all of its permutations. I like sharing that information. If you don't think this is a valid topic for EVE and you're not with Somer, why do you care what I say or do?
Zagam	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:23:00 - [38] Originally by: JC Anderson I've had plenty of friends take part, and win with the blinks. I've also had one friend whom won like 5 in a row on some of the larger ticket items like vindicators and carriers. That same friend, thinking he was going to keep winning, ended up tearing through the rest of his isk once he had a massive losing streak. ;) All in all, it really could just be random dumb luck... I'm not saying it's impossible that it is rigged, but simply trying to explain that somebody winning that many blinks does not automatically make this the case. The more entries you have, the more of an outlier many of these winners become. Rolling a pair of dice (12 possible results), and picking the winning sum is a winning percentage of 8.3333%. Win once, you're lucky. Win twice, you're really lucky. Its possible to win 10 times in a row, theoretically. But it is also a far-flung outlier statistically.
Bethene Bathana	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:30:00 - [39] Don't confuse the odds of one specific participant winning X out of Y times with the odds of any one participant winning X out of Y times.
Whiny McEmokid	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:35:00 - [40] Originally by: Zagam Rolling a pair of dice (12 possible results), and picking the winning sum is a winning percentage of 8.3333%. L2craps

Alu Utukku	Posted - 2011.07.26 17:56:00 - [41] What the op has mentioned, specifically here, is 'playig a spread'. This is the proper way to play a low variable game like the blink lottery where the number of entries is very small. The same technique is used in a variety of betting games (such as stocks, racing, dream team pools) to limit the exposure of the player to the exposure of the pool/house. I've used a spread similar to the one described by the OP to maintain a profit when playing blink that varies in percentages over time, but remains positive. If there were any discrepancy at all within the algorithms I would suggest they favour the brand new player in order to entice the hook deeper into the mouth, or they favour the 'returning' player who has been away for some time to reaffirm the hook. Another consideration however, must be the potential to launder isk through such a service. As the ability to track such a thing approaches zero, the mechanism could be entirely manipulated to provide rmt payment services on the backside of the transaction to the player. Please note, this is not a statement about blink, only speculation on the potential of services.
Doctor Deals	Posted - 2011.07.26 18:27:00 - [42] Somerblink is hiring. The following criteria is required to join: Quote: What else do I need? For both positions, you need an empty alt slot-- we require a fresh alt to join our corporation. Neither alt needs any skills, though cool (non-offensive) names are best, thanks. Reference I wonder what those alts are used for?
Zagam	Posted - 2011.07.26 18:28:00 - [43] Originally by: Whiny McEmokid Originally by: Zagam Rolling a pair of dice (12 possible results), and picking the winning sum is a winning percentage of 8.3333%. L2craps I was breaking it down in a VERY simplistic manner. I could break it down in more precise terms, dealing with the percentages of each sum coming up, but that would be slightly off-topic. I'll edit my earlier post if it makes you feel better. ---------.oOo.---------- Chaos, Madness, and Destruction. My work here is done.
Eolithic WithaTwist Caldari Science and Trade Institute	Posted - 2011.07.26 18:29:00 - [44] Originally by: Zagam Edited by: Zagam on 26/07/2011 15:01:48 If you look at the history, there are people on there winning a disproportionate number of times... I'm thinking the OP is talking about "Tosh Slicer" you mean "girlkiwi" the RMT bot ------------------------------------------- We Are Internet Spaceship Pilots. We do not forgive, we do not forget.
Cipher Jones Minmatar	Posted - 2011.07.26 19:37:00 - [45] Originally by: Junior Frog I've always assumed lotteries are scams. They all depend on one of two things: trust (see the instructions for BIG lotteries) or an OOG website. Since trust in EVE is foolish and the OOG website can be programmed any number of ways, I don't know why anyone would participate in a lottery. For those of you insisting that someone provide proof of scam/rigging, I challenge you to prove that it ISN'T rigged. Since its a lottery, the burden of proof is really on the provider. This is why using OOG, RL, public info to base drawing numbers is best. For example, using the Powerball numbers or the DOW index or whatever. All lotteries ever are scams IRL and EvE. Gamblers who play against the house are just that, gamblers. . Adapt and overcome or become a monkey on an evolution poster.
Takashi X2	Posted - 2011.07.26 19:47:00 - [46] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 26/07/2011 15:23:43 http://cogdev.net/blink/?act=profile&id=1299930958 This guy ? Yeah, he's a bit above average, 20% wins vs expected 12.5% or less. People say he buys up to 4 tickest on mega blinks so it reasonable to say he prolly alwasy buys more then 1 which changes what ratio he should win at. If you always bought out every ticket you would win 100% of the time and it would be legit. IT only shows how many blinks he played not how many tickets hes purchased.
dexington Caldari Baconoration	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:11:00 - [47] I don't think there is any way to prove if somer blink is rigged or not, there is no one to checking if they are cheating. Personally i don't like the odds they give and i don't use their site, but i don't think they are cheating. That said i would not play large sums of isk at a site like that, gambling for fun with isk you can afford to lose is all good, but in the end you have no way of knowing if they are going to rip you off or not.
Annabelle Shape	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:13:00 - [48] wouldnt say its rigged, but theres always systems in play if you can work them out. ive only played a few rounds (had a few bil laying around so dropped a bil into this and played while waiting on wh targets) and allways bet on 4's (because im superstitious) buying tickets 4 and 14 on just about everything. but i noticed that most lotteries were won by the last, or last but one, ticket sold. now obviously i only played a limited number of hands, but thats the view i walked away with from watching the games i played. im sure others have noticed other patterns and play toward those.
Monstress	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:30:00 - [49] Yeah it's rigged. It's rigged to get you addicted!
Narisa Bithon Caldari The Motley Crew Reborn	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:30:00 - [50] my advice boycott somer blink if u think its a scam. that way u dont lose isk.

Meatypopsicle	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:42:00 - [51] Originally by: Zagam Originally by: Whiny McEmokid Originally by: Zagam Rolling a pair of dice (12 possible results), and picking the winning sum is a winning percentage of 8.3333%. L2craps I was breaking it down in a VERY simplistic manner. I could break it down in more precise terms, dealing with the percentages of each sum coming up, but that would be slightly off-topic. I'll edit my earlier post if it makes you feel better. rolling 2 dice does not have 12 possible results...
dexington Caldari Baconoration	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:55:00 - [52] Originally by: Meatypopsicle rolling 2 dice does not have 12 possible results... would the not depend on the number of sides on each dice...
Barakkus	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:55:00 - [53] Originally by: Imperator Bloodhowl there is nothing to gain from rigging it If your alts win most of the time, you just recycle prizes and get free money, plenty of reason to rig it for profit. - [SERVICE] Corp Standings For POS anchoring
Junior Frog	Posted - 2011.07.26 20:58:00 - [54] Originally by: Meatypopsicle rolling 2 dice does not have 12 possible results... It has 11 possible totals (sum of the two dice). But you probably mean the combinations the two dice will show (36). In craps, there are actually more 'results' (i.e. how the game turns out for you) possible than there are dice combinations, since you can place multiple wagers on any given throw.
Grimpak Gallente The Whitehound Corporation Frontline Assembly Point	Posted - 2011.07.26 21:28:00 - [55] Edited by: Grimpak on 26/07/2011 21:28:04 tbh somer proves that even one of the best RNGs created still can't be 100% random --- Quote: The more I know about humans, the more I love animals. ain't that right.
gfldex	Posted - 2011.07.26 21:41:00 - [56] Originally by: Steve4c I have lost over aprox 5-6 bil compiling this information - isk i have won during this time went back on playing blink. I always wondered what you do with all that ISK. -- IF YOU PLAY WITH SONY YOU PLAY WITH ******!
Jon Ferguson JC Ferguson and Son Ltd Ferguson Alliance	Posted - 2011.07.26 21:49:00 - [57] Blink is so immensely profitable that they would be insane to try to screw their customers by lying, cheating and stealing. Nobody would be that stupid. Wait a minute. EVE. CCP. Golden goose. Microtransactions. Paid subscriptions plummeting. Never mind.
Tuggboat Minmatar	Posted - 2011.07.26 22:10:00 - [58] Seems compulsive gamblers actually get more of a thrill by playing games rumored to be fixed. The other side of the coin is that compulsive gamblers often complain a game is rigged when they lose. But in the end it is all rigged for the house to win in one way or the other. I doubt the game would be this obvious but instead they would use streaks like this to pull in more business. I'm surporised Tosh hasn't shown up with a billboard size check and an exotic dancer on each arm.
Taipion Caldari Operations Control United Pod Service	Posted - 2011.07.26 22:22:00 - [59] I¦ve looked at those, too and they did lose, too. After all, I only wonder how much freakin IKS Somer is doing by these, having a margin of roughly 25% per game...
Emperor Cheney Celebrity Sex Tape	Posted - 2011.07.26 22:23:00 - [60] If an external actor could figure out which random number generator they used, and how they used it, it would look identical to a scam, except for there would be no effort made to hide it from the public. Related: http://gscentral.net/larsen.htm I have no idea if this is what is happening. But, if so, it would be awesome.



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