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Vera Algaert
Republic University Minmatar Republic
438
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Posted - 2012.11.21 15:56:00 -
[31] - Quote
Ioci wrote:Demolishar wrote:I would love to know the total quantity of stockpiled PLEX in EVE. That's the main unknown here and has such a huge effect on what the future will hold. I've often wondered if CCP had the wisdom to take PLEX money and put it in an 'ingame payroll account'. Treating each Plex like a written cheque and not pulling the money until the PLEX was cashed? at least not in their public accounting. I'm a NPC corp alt, any argument I make is invalid. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
925
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Posted - 2012.11.21 16:30:00 -
[32] - Quote
Vaal Erit wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Vaal Erit wrote:Well this is awkward. CCP blamed FW for the rapid rise of PLEX and it has been 2 weeks and counting since the FW nerf and PLEX has been going up in price. Oops.
What will CCP blame it on next, Incursions again? Or maybe missions and afk mack ice mining are the culprit? Does CCP have the balls to go ahead with a 10% pay cut in all bounties? 700m per plex by years end? CCP did not nerf FW because it caused inflation but because it was a monkey mode to get humongous amounts of ISK. Mining does not compare I didn't say inflation and talking about inflation in EVE is pretty hilarious. All I'm talking about is PLEX price and yes I totally agree with you that gaining lp in FW was too crazy easy before and needed a nerf. Here is what CCP said "We believe getting these changes out early will go a long way towards shaking up and reviving the FW warzones while also reducing pressure on the economy (most notably the price of PLEX). We will keep observing the impact from all of these changes and will keep tweaking as needed to get the best results possible." Now if PLEX prices don't drop from this (which they haven't) then not only does CCP look like they have no idea what they are doing (business per usual) but they also nerfed certain militias without warning for no reason. I think it is an awkward situation, either CCP is incompetent in economic matters or they are purposely helping certain militias
Or, FW was just the most obvious thing driving their rise in prices or the thing driving the rise in prices the most quickly, and perhaps there are other things that also drive the rise in prices, just not quite as fast?
Nah, clearly a conspiracy to favor one side of a minigame played by a tiny portion of the population. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Harbingour
EVE Corporation 690846961
11
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Posted - 2012.11.21 19:08:00 -
[33] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Harbingour wrote: It'd be tuff to blame Incursions. I'm willing to bet INCURSIONS per month ISK faucet fell 70-85% TO BETWEEN 1.1 & 2.2 TRILLION ISK PER MONTH.
I sure hope that you mean the faucet only from incursions and not the total faucet here. Because if you mean the total faucet, then uh...lets just say you're wrong. Very, very wrong.
FIXED. I do agree/think that the addition of drone bounties increased the TOTAL ISK faucets (possibly significantly) and bounties are far larger a percentage of the faucets now. I am very cursious if post Escalation Incursion nerf if WH blue loots increased from ~10 trillion to more then 12 trillion with the abandonment of Incrusions farmers migrating mostly to FW or WH? I miss CCP Diagoras Meta-gaming for NULL SECCers: Whine on the forums until CCP gets sick of you and hands you everything you ask for just to shut you up. Typical NULL SEC arguement to NERF HI SEC-á-á http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csPPqdbcVwM
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Fractal Muse
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
27
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Posted - 2012.11.21 19:30:00 -
[34] - Quote
Vaal Erit wrote: Now if PLEX prices don't drop from this (which they haven't) then not only does CCP look like they have no idea what they are doing (business per usual) but they also nerfed certain militias without warning for no reason.
I think it is an awkward situation, either CCP is incompetent in economic matters or they are purposely helping certain militias
I don't understand.
PLEX prices don't drop from what price point?
They were averaging 650 million mid-October. Today, there are plenty available at 600 million or less.
If I check out PLEX prices right now I find them going from 590 million, between 591 million and 599 million (24 sell orders that I can see), and 600 million (15 sell orders).
Perhaps if you included your start point for when you began tracking PLEX prices? |
Ariel Dawn
F9X
896
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Posted - 2012.11.21 20:03:00 -
[35] - Quote
PLEX prices are going up due to inflation. 30 day GTCs used to cost 110m, PLEX initially cost ~250m and you'll see PLEX hit 1b at some point in the future.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
925
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Posted - 2012.11.21 20:50:00 -
[36] - Quote
Harbingour wrote:corestwo wrote:Harbingour wrote: It'd be tuff to blame Incursions. I'm willing to bet INCURSIONS per month ISK faucet fell 70-85% TO BETWEEN 1.1 & 2.2 TRILLION ISK PER MONTH.
I sure hope that you mean the faucet only from incursions and not the total faucet here. Because if you mean the total faucet, then uh...lets just say you're wrong. Very, very wrong. FIXED. I do agree/think that the addition of drone bounties increased the TOTAL ISK faucets (possibly significantly) and bounties are far larger a percentage of the faucets now. I am very cursious if post Escalation Incursion nerf if WH blue loots increased from ~10 trillion to more then 12 trillion with the abandonment of Incrusions farmers migrating mostly to FW or WH? I miss CCP Diagoras
WH blue loots weren't ~10T. The total of everything NPCs bought was ~10T. WH loot was in the 6-7T range. Incursions were about 8-9. And the total for bounties was in the 32T range. There's no firm way to break that up by region or security status, but given that the top ranked Empire regions had ~10x the NPC kills as the top ranked nullsec regions, it's probably safe to say that the drone regions were not that large of an increase in the bounties faucet. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Harbingour
EVE Corporation 690846961
15
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Posted - 2012.11.22 08:10:00 -
[37] - Quote
corestwo wrote: WH blue loots weren't ~10T. The total of everything NPCs bought was ~10T. WH loot was in the 6-7T range.
not according to this: http://twostep4csm.blogspot.com/2012/03/its-econmony-stupid.html
corestwo wrote: it's probably safe to say that the drone regions were not that large of an increase in the bounties faucet.
It was not just the Drone regions that saw the drone bounty increase though HI SEC had quite afew drone missions I recall from my earliest days. I don't think it is safeto say anything & we are in a economy ino blackout right nowIMHO Meta-gaming for NULL SECCers: Whine on the forums until CCP gets sick of you and hands you everything you ask for just to shut you up. Typical NULL SEC arguement to NERF HI SEC-á-á http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csPPqdbcVwM
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
2002
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Posted - 2012.11.22 13:55:00 -
[38] - Quote
corestwo wrote: WH blue loots weren't ~10T. The total of everything NPCs bought was ~10T. WH loot was in the 6-7T range. Incursions were about 8-9. And the total for bounties was in the 32T range. There's no firm way to break that up by region or security status, but given that the top ranked Empire regions had ~10x the NPC kills as the top ranked nullsec regions, it's probably safe to say that the drone regions were not that large of an increase in the bounties faucet.
All it takes is a 10% ISK faucets increase to cause a mis-balance. Also, drone regions (as said above) is not the only "drone content". When I missioned I recall those quite stupid drone missions were 20%-30% of the whole kind of missions offered (varies by agent). Given the huge amount of hi sec missions are farmed, it quickly creates another large ISK faucet.
Imo they should revert the drone changes and just increase the BPOs minerals requirements. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Malecite
Aliastra Gallente Federation
0
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Posted - 2012.11.22 14:43:00 -
[39] - Quote
too many character resellers |
Demolishar
United Aggression
455
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Posted - 2012.11.22 17:21:00 -
[40] - Quote
Malecite wrote:too many character resellers
Don't think it's a big deal to be honest. There are too many (I am one of them), but I believe the character bazaar is in recession . Buyers won't pay enough because they are tight on isk due to price of PLEX to fund their accounts, sellers won't accept low offers due to extreme transfer fee. So very few characters are actually moving. |
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Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor Cosmic Consortium
2102
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Posted - 2012.11.22 20:41:00 -
[41] - Quote
Vaal Erit wrote:Here is what CCP said "We believe getting these changes out early will go a long way towards shaking up and reviving the FW warzones while also reducing pressure on the economy (most notably the price of PLEX). We will keep observing the impact from all of these changes and will keep tweaking as needed to get the best results possible."
Now if PLEX prices don't drop from this (which they haven't) then not only does CCP look like they have no idea what they are doing (business per usual) but they also nerfed certain militias without warning for no reason.
The pressure on PLEX prices certainly reduced. During the stupidity that was Bunkers In Frigates, PLEX were rising in price far faster than they were before or after that mechanic was popularly exploited. Right now, PLEX are back to their "normal" rate of inflation.
Where will PLEX prices stop? I would suggest that one price limit for PLEX is the amount of ISK that an AFK ice harvester can collect with relatively little effort in a month. At present an AFK ice harvester can generate about 70M ISK a day with little effort. Multiply that by 30 days and you have 2100M ISK. Thus one limit of PLEX prices is 2100M ISK.
Day 0 advice for new players: Day 0 Advice for New Players |
Sizeof Void
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
296
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Posted - 2012.11.22 23:25:00 -
[42] - Quote
I think we'll see PLEX prices drop and stay under 600M over the next couple of months.
CCP has been timing their PLEX pack discounts to holidays, and we are entering a holiday season. The Thanksgiving (yeah, US holiday) PLEX sale is already up. I expect we'll see another sale around Christmas and yet another one around the New Year.
There has also been a lot of blogging about the cost of PLEX, and from the comments, it seems that a significant number of players have been unsubbing or consolidating their PLEX-funded alt accounts, due to the cost of PLEX.
Over the long haul, this isn't good for CCP, since this lowers demand, so I'm sure they are going to keep offering PLEX sales to keep the price near a point where (a) players will buy them to sub alt accounts, and (b) speculators will buy and hold them in hopes of the prices going higher.
Remember that every PLEX sold is RL money in the bank for CCP, so it is obviously to their advantage to manage the in-game price such that demand/supply ratios are optimal to generate the maximum number of RL PLEX transactions per month.
On a side note, I'm sort of surprised that CCP hasn't introduced more activities which consume in-game PLEX. For example, they could run regular PLEX auctions or lotteries, using limited-edition ships as prizes. Very few limited-edition ships, such as AT tournament prizes, are ever actually used in PVP, so this sort of thing would not be seen as P2W. |
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
237
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Posted - 2012.11.23 00:14:00 -
[43] - Quote
This is starting to remind me of Invention chance, stealth nerf's |
enterprisePSI
132
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Posted - 2012.11.23 05:44:00 -
[44] - Quote
Oh man, i forgot to sell @610, jobs suck, money sucks, RL sucks, etc emorage. The tears of the many, outweight the tears of the few. Or the one. enterprise-psi-¬
I made tweet, Y U NO FOLLOW!!! |
Riddick Liddell
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
27
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Posted - 2012.11.23 15:17:00 -
[45] - Quote
Down 12 mill over night. We will see what they look like on Monday.
(New 2 Plex promo) |
Fractal Muse
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
35
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Posted - 2012.11.23 18:09:00 -
[46] - Quote
Riddick Liddell wrote:Down 12 mill over night. We will see what they look like on Monday.
(New 2 Plex promo) To put it into perspective, on the 23rd of Nov 2012, PLEX is currently available starting at 571 million.
In JITA there are multiple PLEXes available below 585 million (5 so far) and many more just over 585 million.
I am really hoping that the people who have PLEX as an 'investment' will start selling them off as well. If that starts happening I think we'll see PLEX prices drop down below 500.
Edited to add that at least one 'investor' seems to be trying to liquidate their PLEX inventory since there is a single sell order of 29 PLEXes at 585,919,999.00 ISK available at Jita. I suspect if I looked at the market buy and sell prices that there are some people trying to buy the incoming PLEX on the market to relist them for a profit - lots of sell orders of 5 to 19 PLEX at a time. There looks like there are enough new PLEX coming onto the market to foil this. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
2011
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Posted - 2012.11.24 11:06:00 -
[47] - Quote
Still not convinced why I should ever invest in PLEX. An openly and grandly manipulated market, including by CCP, who decide to put their thresolds and that can make the whole market in 1 hour. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Grombutz
Treasures Collectors Solar Citizens
13
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Posted - 2012.11.24 16:31:00 -
[48] - Quote
Plex prices do not spike because of inflation. It's just what happens if a clever trader meets a stupid plexer. |
Riddick Liddell
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
27
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Posted - 2012.11.24 17:39:00 -
[49] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Still not convinced why I should ever invest in PLEX. An openly and grandly manipulated market, including by CCP, who decide to put their thresolds and that can make the whole market in 1 hour.
Agreed but it's the only thing that makes Plex a true market in EVE for most of us. (the human factor) They play a game with a few hundred people and we can ride in and out and make 2 or 3 billion in a month with out ever leaving Jita IV 4. Unless CCP go to the trouble of checking every asset for Plex and do history checks to see where those Plex came from and when, they are just playing a pissing contest with that top 100 people. |
Sizeof Void
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
296
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Posted - 2012.11.24 21:30:00 -
[50] - Quote
Fractal Muse wrote: I am really hoping that the people who have PLEX as an 'investment' will start selling them off as well. If that starts happening I think we'll see PLEX prices drop down below 500.
Possible, but somewhat doubtful.
From checking around various forums and blogs, it looks like 500 is the magic resub number for the majority of players who have recently unsubbed PLEX-funded alt accounts.
Thus, as the price approaches 500, these players will be watching the market more closely - trying to decide whether it is low enough to resub their alts. In most cases, they aren't going to see much of a difference between 500 and 505, or even 515 - so, they will start buying up PLEX and push the prices back up. While the price might drop below 500 occasionally, due to a stupid seller, it is more likely to stay above that point.
It might be safe to assume that most of the PLEX-subbed players will buy as many PLEX as possible around the 500 point, with the assumption that prices will go up again during the next year. This increases demand, which pushes prices up, but, supply is likely to be increased as well, since Christmas and New Year cash gifts and bonuses may be spent on buying PLEX to sell in-game. This will deplete, ofc, and prices should start to rise again after the holiday season. The long-term PLEX investor will ride out the holiday season, buying rather than selling.
However, if CCP can keep the prices around 500-525, via PLEX pack discounts, through January or so, they should get back a decent percentage of the recently unsubbed PLEX-funded alt accounts. It wouldn't hurt their quarterly financial reports, either.
But, this is all just random speculation, ofc... :) |
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Sizeof Void
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
296
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Posted - 2012.11.24 21:36:00 -
[51] - Quote
One other thing to note about PLEX investment & speculation:
Keep in mind that invested PLEX can be also used to create alt accounts, for the purpose of training up toons for sale, such as supercap pilots.
I personally do not buy/sell toons, so I can't say what the profit margin on PLEX-funded toons is (or is not), but it is something which might be worth considering. |
Demolishar
United Aggression
467
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Posted - 2012.11.24 22:18:00 -
[52] - Quote
Sizeof Void wrote: I personally do not buy/sell toons, so I can't say what the profit margin on PLEX-funded toons is (or is not), but it is something which might be worth considering.
With the removal of the PLEX reward for buddy invites the potential profit is very low and it is no longer a viable income source. |
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
795
|
Posted - 2012.11.24 22:19:00 -
[53] - Quote
You can't look at plex prices, to determine if there's inflation in Eve. Because they're unlike /every/ other good. You can't ramp up plex production within Eve. It all comes down to how much RL money people are willing to spend on it.
You really need to define a basket of goods, to determine if there's inflation. Good which are produced in game, which don't have a totally inelastic supply.
Look at popular T2 modules. many of them have fallen in price, over the last 6 months. FuzzWork Enterprises http://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/ Blueprint calculator, invention chance calculator, isk/m3 Ore chart-á and other 'useful' utilities.As well as mysql and CSV/XLS conversions of the Static Data Extract. |
Sizeof Void
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
296
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Posted - 2012.11.24 23:18:00 -
[54] - Quote
Mara Rinn wrote:Where will PLEX prices stop? I would suggest that one price limit for PLEX is the amount of ISK that an AFK ice harvester can collect with relatively little effort in a month. At present an AFK ice harvester can generate about 70M ISK a day with little effort. Multiply that by 30 days and you have 2100M ISK. Thus one limit of PLEX prices is 2100M ISK. Most AFK ice harvesters are going to be running on an alt account, to support at least one main account - ie. you are paying for two accounts. So, the actual limit on the PLEX price, based on ice, would be 1/2 of 2100M, or 1050M - roughly 1B ISK.
However, running an AFK ice harvester every day is also likely to get you tagged by CCP Sreegs' secret bot detector. |
Sizeof Void
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
296
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Posted - 2012.11.24 23:39:00 -
[55] - Quote
Steve Ronuken wrote: You really need to define a basket of goods, to determine if there's inflation. Good which are produced in game, which don't have a totally inelastic supply.
That is difficult to do, since mining produces a free, renewable, and unlimited supply of materials, which simply isn't realistic.
NPC drops of free meta items also skew the numbers - almost as badly as did the old fixed-price NPC manufactured items. The availability of high meta items has a direct effect on T2 module prices, and the availability of low meta items has a direct effect on T1 module prices (actually, the low meta glut has pretty much nerfed T1 module manufacturing into oblivion).
Add the fact that many items are produced by a limited number of manufacturers, most of whom are also engaged in price manipulation (yes, monopolies can and do exist, despite claims to the contrary).
I just don't think you can find a "basket of goods" in-game which would meet the requirements of a RL economic model for inflation. |
Sizeof Void
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
296
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Posted - 2012.11.24 23:44:00 -
[56] - Quote
Demolishar wrote:Sizeof Void wrote: I personally do not buy/sell toons, so I can't say what the profit margin on PLEX-funded toons is (or is not), but it is something which might be worth considering.
With the removal of the PLEX reward for buddy invites the potential profit is very low and it is no longer a viable income source. Good to know. I didn't realize that the PLEX reward for buddies was removed.
BTW - is there any incentive for inviting buddies to play? Except for watching them get pwned as noobs, ofc. :) |
Sans Sonic Leon
EVE University Ivy League
2
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Posted - 2012.11.25 01:19:00 -
[57] - Quote
I still remember when plex was 350M isk when I just started playing |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
930
|
Posted - 2012.11.25 03:21:00 -
[58] - Quote
Sizeof Void wrote: However, if CCP can keep the prices around 500-525, via PLEX pack discounts, through January or so, they should get back a decent percentage of the recently unsubbed PLEX-funded alt accounts. It wouldn't hurt their quarterly financial reports, either
This wouldn't actually work. Sales tend to have diminishing returns.
Sans Sonic Leon wrote:I still remember when plex was 350M isk when I just started playing Son, when I started playing, PLEX didn't exist, and a month of gametime was 90m. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Vincent Athena
V.I.C.E.
1175
|
Posted - 2012.11.26 14:47:00 -
[59] - Quote
Sizeof Void wrote:Demolishar wrote:Sizeof Void wrote: I personally do not buy/sell toons, so I can't say what the profit margin on PLEX-funded toons is (or is not), but it is something which might be worth considering.
With the removal of the PLEX reward for buddy invites the potential profit is very low and it is no longer a viable income source. Good to know. I didn't realize that the PLEX reward for buddies was removed. BTW - is there any incentive for inviting buddies to play? Except for watching them get pwned as noobs, ofc. :) If they sub with a PLEX, you get a free month of account time. If they sub with real money, you can get either a PLEX or a free month. Its only PLEX for PLEX that went away. http://vincentoneve.wordpress.com/ |
Vincent Athena
V.I.C.E.
1175
|
Posted - 2012.11.26 21:28:00 -
[60] - Quote
Mara Rinn wrote:corestwo wrote:Kills like that are hilarious, but irrelevant. They're too rare to have a meaningful impact on prices at all. I beg to differ. But then I speculatively trade and haul PLEX, so my perspective on the matter is different to someone who doesn't trade PLEX at all. The hundreds of PLEX bought for the alliance tournament impacted the market even if only psychologically: traders raised the prices in anticipation of huge demand. The prices of PLEX start falling the moment the special PLEX offers show up on the login screen ads. I am eternally thankful tht the people selling PLEX are keen to get a cash injection as quickly as possible. I am eternally grateful that the people scraping ISK together from month to month aren't willing to post a buy order. Because of the hand-to-mouth mentality of PLEX sellers and account PLEXers, speculators such as myself are guaranteed to make a profit by buying low, selling high. Thus the PLEXers are always buying from speculators' sell orders, the PLEX sellers are always selling to buy orders. The moment the PLEXers start getting wise and posting buy orders a day or two before their accounts are due, the moment PLEX sellers start posting sell orders and waiting ENTIRE HOURS for the PLEX to sell, the speculating game is over. But while there are people hauling dozens of PLEX in industrials (or taking their PLEX to market in ships flown by faction warfare characters, through FW systems) I know my ISK is safe in the PLEX Market. I'm flying my hauler full of PLEX around, humming Sweet Home Alabama, praying to Barnum and Murphy. I PLEX my accounts and I set buy orders. http://vincentoneve.wordpress.com/ |
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