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Let's talk about plex, baby

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Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 1 post(s)
DeliaPrescot Balintol 1	Posted - 2011.10.15 11:02:00 - [31] - Quote I'm torn on this, i still weep tears thinking about how poor i was when the PLEX price was about 250m two years ago. I invested all my cash i had into PLEX back then and the return is obscene but still i wish i had some more extra billions. Today is different cash is no problem, so if the PLEX ever is falling i know what i will do and you don't need to guess that i'm not alone. CCP can slow down the upward spiral on PLEX prices with such offers like the 200$ one but can't stop it without heavy interfering and as result crashing the PLEX market. The more often CCP offers bulk buying PLEX the less the market will react until this instrument won't work anymore. Anyway i'm just sitting here hoping and waiting for a crash caused by CCP as this is the only way PLEX prices will be at 300m or lower ever again. Still predicting PLEX prices about 500m around Christmas.
Endeavour Starfleet Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 9	Posted - 2011.10.15 11:14:00 - [32] - Quote Lithalnas wrote: apparently CCP is putting out another plex deal to try and deflate the isk value of PLEX by oversupply classy CCP, classy QPE 2 anyone? If you try to game the PLEX market. Expect CCP to respond period. PLEX has grown active accounts by leaps and bounds and stomped out a fair bit of RMT. When are folks going to learn. The sweet spot for PLEX is 350-375 or so.
Lexmana Imperial Stout 36	Posted - 2011.10.15 13:57:00 - [33] - Quote Incursion introduced an ISK faucet and Incarna a PLEX sink. Together they should push the price upwards.
Claire Voyant 6	Posted - 2011.10.15 15:09:00 - [34] - Quote Endeavour Starfleet wrote: If you try to game the PLEX market. Expect CCP to respond period. PLEX has grown active accounts by leaps and bounds and stomped out a fair bit of RMT. When are folks going to learn. The sweet spot for PLEX is 350-375 or so. So how high do PLEX prices have to go to convince you that you are wrong and that CCP doesn't give a damn about how high they are? Hint: the people who actually pay money to CCP are quite happy to see PLEX prices in the stratosphere. You may b!tch and moan all you want, but you are merely a consumer of PLEX. As long as someone else is willing to pay the market rate, CCP doesn't care who buys them. Is the board of Nike concerned that people pay $120 for their worthless shoes? As long as people keep buying them, they are happy. It's when they stop buying them, that they get concerned. Likewise CCP only worries when PLEX prices fall too low. Sweet spot my ass! It's what the market will bear.
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist 5	Posted - 2011.10.15 16:32:00 - [35] - Quote Claire Voyant wrote: So how high do PLEX prices have to go to convince you that you are wrong and that CCP doesn't give a damn about how high they are? I'd say it'd have to near 1 billion or so. Given that they suddenly came up with a PLEX deal when PLEX threatened to hit 450 (and this is the second time they've done so, I might add), they really don't want PLEX too expensive. My view now is that given current game dynamics PLEX is going to rise to higher levels, but this is despite CCP wishes. If they adjust isk faucets/sinks so that isk creation is reduced or consumption increased, then they can stabilize PLEX around current levels. The current sort of strategy (offering deals on PLEX to increase PLEX supply) just doesn't work in the long term (all they're doing is reducing the average price of PLEX and that's limited by the constraint to make PLEX more expensive than the monthly fee for keeping an account open).
Endeavour Starfleet Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 10	Posted - 2011.10.15 19:03:00 - [36] - Quote Claire you might note that CCP reintroduced the deal and brought PLEX prices down again. CCP apparently does give a damn. Or atleast glad for the excuse to to get a bunch of money in the door. Either way PLEX wont keep building the way the speculators want. That is what speculation is about. You are betting that increased supply wont OMGpwn you in the markets like say RL opening up of oil reserves. PLEX isn't a good idea to game.
Claire Voyant 6	Posted - 2011.10.16 02:48:00 - [37] - Quote Tasko Pal wrote: Given that they suddenly came up with a PLEX deal when PLEX threatened to hit 450 (and this is the second time they've done so, I might add), they really don't want PLEX too expensive. That is not the only explanation. Obviously when they run a volume discount deal, they expect to get a bunch of people buying large chunks of PLEX and putting them on the market. This can't help but depress PLEX prices. The problem is assuming that this is the motivation for the promotion. In actuality, the promotion is run by the marketing department in order to increase revenue from PLEX sales. The important point is to realize that they wait until PLEX prices are high so they can run the promotion without crashing PLEX prices too much in the process. You could argue that this amounts to the same thing. If the marketing department has been given instructions not to run PLEX promotions unless the price of PLEX is over a certain level, then the Marketing people will probably pretty much just take the liberty to do so whenever that point is hit and it would amount to the same thing as a PLEX price target. But that is not the only way this could work. The criteria could involve a rising price target. It might only kick in if the price goes a certain amount higher than it did before the previous promotion. Or it could be determined by the actual volume of PLEX purchased from CCP and promotions might only be run during slack periods when sales are low in order to smooth out the revenue stream. I think the way to settle this is to see what happens in the next month or so. If the past is any guide, PLEX prices should peak in mid-November at around 440-450 million isk. I also think CCP will avoid PLEX promotions immediately before the usual pre-expansion rush because it will just cost them sales. I think if there are no promotions during the entire month of November AND PLEX tops out at at least 440 during the month then it is safe to say that the Marketing Department has not just been given a price target.
Diomedes Calypso Aetolian Armada 19	Posted - 2011.10.16 10:24:00 - [38] - Quote Claire Voyant wrote: Endeavour Starfleet wrote: If you try to game the PLEX market. Expect CCP to respond period. PLEX has grown active accounts by leaps and bounds and stomped out a fair bit of RMT. When are folks going to learn. The sweet spot for PLEX is 350-375 or so. So how high do PLEX prices have to go to convince you that you are wrong and that CCP doesn't give a damn about how high they are? Hint: the people who actually pay money to CCP are quite happy to see PLEX prices in the stratosphere. You may b!tch and moan all you want, but you are merely a consumer of PLEX. As long as someone else is willing to pay the market rate, CCP doesn't care who buys them. Is the board of Nike concerned that people pay $120 for their worthless shoes? As long as people keep buying them, they are happy. It's when they stop buying them, that they get concerned. Likewise CCP only worries when PLEX prices fall too low. Sweet spot my ass! It's what the market will bear. You got the Nike thing backwards CCP wants to sell the maximum plex possible.. fair deal capitalism.... they get less money per isk purchased if prices for plex in isk go UP.. There are a lot of cross currents and other motivations in terms of retaining players etc that are also valuble. but a 120$ of shoes is 200 million per plex, a 90 dollar pair of shoes is 300 million and a 60$ pair of shoes is 400 million... the higher the isk it takes to buy a plex.. the less real life money CCP gets from people using $ to buy a loki. like I said there are other factors.. but as long as you brought up the tennis shoes.. might as well get that part sorted out
Claire Voyant 8	Posted - 2011.10.16 10:58:00 - [39] - Quote Diomedes Calypso wrote: You got the Nike thing backwards CCP wants to sell the maximum plex possible.. fair deal capitalism.... they get less money per isk purchased if prices for plex in isk go UP.. There are a lot of cross currents and other motivations in terms of retaining players etc that are also valuble. but a 120$ of shoes is 200 million per plex, a 90 dollar pair of shoes is 300 million and a 60$ pair of shoes is 400 million... the higher the isk it takes to buy a plex.. the less real life money CCP gets from people using $ to buy a loki. like I said there are other factors.. but as long as you brought up the tennis shoes.. might as well get that part sorted out That would be true if demand was inelastic (not price sensitive), if there was no competition, and if people were forced to play Eve and buy isk. You imply that CCP should maximize the amount of RL dollars people need to pay to buy a single loki, when in fact what CCP wants to do is maximize the amount of RL dollars people pay them (CCP) in order to buy lokis (however many they want) and all the other crap they need.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 1	Posted - 2011.10.16 11:31:00 - [40] - Quote Let's sum it up CCP wants dolla from PLEX sale, either doing a promotions or leaving PLEX to raise to 1B. RL $ is really what it counts, unless somebody have forgotten what the business is. People have no problem buying 500M or 800M isk PLEX to play. Seeing volumes of PLEX sale in Jita constantly raising over a year, seems to me that price is nowhere to go except up. Unless CCP make good expansion and bring alot of new players; that is 6-9 months of dedicated and good work on EVE. Maybe next year, for now, PLEX up.

IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 1	Posted - 2011.10.16 11:52:00 - [41] - Quote Oh yes, fixing game issues, where curent focus is, means nothing to new, RL $ paying players. Means for older player base, they buy PLEX from market. +1 for PLEX up.
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist 5	Posted - 2011.10.16 17:45:00 - [42] - Quote IceFyre S18 wrote: People have no problem buying 500M or 800M isk PLEX to play. Why would you think that? People with multiple accounts are likely to cut back. For example, if someone has 10 alts mining ice at, say, 10 mil per hour, then they'd have to mine for 40 more hours before they could make up the new higher cost of maintaining that many alts. And people who don't earn large amounts of isk either through grind or investment probably won't be interested in working a bunch more hours merely to maintain their current wealth.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 1	Posted - 2011.10.16 17:55:00 - [43] - Quote They work couple of days to pay for plex. Working a week or 2 weeks for plex is long distance from this price.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 1	Posted - 2011.10.16 18:00:00 - [44] - Quote IceFyre S18 wrote: They work couple of days to pay for plex. Working a week or 2 weeks for plex is long distance from this price. Let me be clear. When ice mining can not pay for plex, TL;DR, the Ice will rise, and there we go again.
Diomedes Calypso Aetolian Armada 19	Posted - 2011.10.16 18:37:00 - [45] - Quote Tasko Pal wrote: IceFyre S18 wrote: People have no problem buying 500M or 800M isk PLEX to play. Why would you think that? People with multiple accounts are likely to cut back. For example, if someone has 10 alts mining ice at, say, 10 mil per hour, then they'd have to mine for 40 more hours before they could make up the new higher cost of maintaining that many alts. And people who don't earn large amounts of isk either through grind or investment probably won't be interested in working a bunch more hours merely to maintain their current wealth. This is where it is really tricky and where things could break. As long as what you say remains the factor with the INCREMENTAL buyer isk>plex , the prices of plex will stabilize in a rough range where in game hours spent playing farming ~= hours a marginal seller of $>plex>isk makes a decision based in large part to keep up with a common level of spending in the range of those earning it in game. That balance is also reasonable for people who neither play to play or pay extra to pay as with a moderate amount of pay , they'll be able to equip ships (yet not play for free) Q: WHERE can things Break down.? A: Things can break down when elasticity largely disappears on Either side of the purchase / sale equation a1) on the buy isk>plex side - where the Incremental buyer is no longer a player that earns isk through a more direct hours played farming to purchase decision but where the incremental buyer has huges stores of isk (like over 20 billion.. although there are many much higher) or has huge semi passive income in terms of production, datacore(just a tiny boost here), and moon mining which would mean that they might need those accounts as closing them could cost billions a month in semi passive effort.. (and/or they know that even with some inactivity between datacores and an occasional char sale on the account a very high hurdle could be largely met anyway even if they miss a month or two of production due to temporary loss of interest in the game) --- tldr on A1 --- if the incremental buyer isn't thinking play time to isk purchases prices could settle well higher than comfortable for people who do things like mining or missioning or plexing to pay for game time b1) on the sell side ($>plex>isk) - supply coming to market is dependent upon player interest in the game first and foremost... without and interest in the game, almost no value scenario will get more buyers off their butts. -- not an exact analogy (analogies rarely are, yet still useful while not exact where they can cast light with a partial relation)... but there is something similar to a federal reserve "pushing on the string" impact where even zero interest rates don't boost capital spending anymore because the rate of money is no longer the cusp motivation of expansion investment decision b2) risk that when getting higher amounts of isk per $ that the number of buyers does not expand because of better value but actually contracts. Because game goals drive the decision to use more $, and game goals are based upon game dynamics, if the incremental seller has his game goals met selling fewer plex they may actually reduce the plex coming to market -RL analogy(again not perfect but illustrator) - Buy one get one free Shoe sale - the better value for the 2 pairs of shoes could actually cannibalize over-all shoe sales. Someone coming in to buy one pair of shoes for need(even if need is old shoes look crappy) might spend a tad more to get a second set if the promotion sets prices slightly higher for the first pairGÇömost people expect shoes to be discounted and the lack of a discount on one pair is an effective price increase). However those coming in with the idea of buying two pairs very likely spend a tad less than they anticipated given the bargain -Very very few people coming in to buy 1 pair, would walk out with 4 pairs buying more because of the bargain.. clutter becomes a bigger consideration than value -Those that do take 4 shoes probably cannibalize from future demand.. theyGÇÖll almost certainly wait longer till their next shoe purchase Bad scenario = shrinking number of players (or changes in things that can motivate occasional huge $>plex>isk sales like a nerf to super carriers) could mean less Plex being sold regardless of value situation TLDR If # of plex coming to market falls (due to decreased player base), and that # volume is below the # of very isk rich players ( who might even buy game time at 1 billion isk per month for lack of beter use of the isk and the abilty to still earn many times that) THEN the isk>plex relation can lose all connection to the earnings of a more typical player makes in isk per hour. Knock on effects of what I consider an entirely possible outcome (say it happens in 1 one out of 4 futuresGÇª I think there is a 75% chance that it will not happen yet a 25% chance is something that needs to be prepared for --- nü«Loss of interest in the game from those depending on relatively affordable isk>plex ratio to continue playing nü«Vicious circle of the above quitting causing paying players to quit because friends leave and less people to draw people to the gave via word of mouth nü«Inbalance created by remaining $>plex>isk sellers getting so much isk for their $ that with small amounts of $ they completely eclipse the earning power of those players who were never buyers or sellers.. decreasing the game satisfaction of those players who were never buyers or sellers GÇª less sense of balance will lead to incrementally less players and vicious cycle continuing.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 1	Posted - 2011.10.16 18:56:00 - [46] - Quote From my experience, the EVE will (is) set a new course, will find a way to new equilibrium. 500M Plex, minerals will rise, mission will not be much good income, Incursions will rock as it do. 1B Plex, just the same, couple will cut on some "do it for free" activities, but imo, nothing will change. We adapt, troll more, and go on. Exept CCP gets some extra cash, I hope, and put into EVE development.
Ariel Dawn F9X 0	Posted - 2011.10.16 21:34:00 - [47] - Quote People are figuring out how easy it is to make enough ISK within a short time period to cover a PLEX all the time. Only direction PLEX prices are going (long-term trending) is up. People who buy PLEXes to sell them for ISK make CCP happier, the more ISK a PLEX generates the better it is on their end. If you have too much ISK floating around or you plan to quit EVE for a while, dump it into PLEXes. I bought a massive stack of them back when they were 270m, and back then players were adamant that the prices would never go higher, calling those who argued against idiots. A year from now you'll see players wishing they bought them up at 400-420m each. Pretty slow way to make ISK if you're used to trading, but if you're not playing it's awesome coming back to ~60%+ growth that takes no work whatsoever and is more or less 100% safe.
Companion Qube Positive Cashflow through Positive Thinking SRS. 47	Posted - 2011.10.24 01:12:00 - [48] - Quote You've probably already noticed that plex are about to take a nose-dive. If you _haven't_ now would be a good time to exit that market in an orderly fashion.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 1	Posted - 2011.10.24 01:44:00 - [49] - Quote I am waiting one of next promotions where for 199$ I'll get 13 PLEX, T-Shirt, Mug, EVE magnet, a pen, boots, battleship model, couple of other trinkets and bunch of ingame stuff including 2 monocles.
Companion Qube Positive Cashflow through Positive Thinking SRS. 47	Posted - 2011.10.24 01:55:00 - [50] - Quote IceFyre S18 wrote: I am waiting one of next promotions where for 199$ I'll get 13 PLEX, T-Shirt, Mug, EVE magnet, a pen, boots, battleship model, couple of other trinkets and bunch of ingame stuff including 2 monocles. That's the long and short of it. CCP showed their hand with the most recent promotion - they're willing to give away collectors items and ships to keep plex under 400m. The question now is how much collector crap they're willing to pile on to any sale to temporarily flood the market and push prices down.

IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 2	Posted - 2011.10.31 12:11:00 - [51] - Quote New promotion fast, PLEX is wild.
Shanlara IDDQD Industry 0	Posted - 2011.10.31 15:44:00 - [52] - Quote plex prices are getting out of hand, either ccp soon steps in or this will actually hurt them, while people might be more inclined to buy plex's to get isk cause of the sick buy orders atm, the numbers of active accounts for people who don't have irl money to pay for accounts will begin shutting down at these prices, over the past month plex's went up with nearly 100m a unit, I'm one of those while I have a decent among of isk, I don't have enough to begin paying half a bill for a plex, so in afew days my accounts will begin going inactive till plex prices goes stable again, so I wonder if ccp will let this happen or if they are gonna step in a some point.
Elise DarkStar DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium 118	Posted - 2011.10.31 15:48:00 - [53] - Quote WHY DIDNT YOU FAGGOTS TELL ME IT WAS GOING TO 450?! SOME FRIENDS YOU ARE! I check plex prices once a month when I pay for my accounts. I'm crying right now that the one market I can actually go all in on actually jumped >10%. **** you all.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 2	Posted - 2011.10.31 16:30:00 - [54] - Quote Well, we have, but it seems not all listen.
Elise DarkStar DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium 118	Posted - 2011.10.31 16:33:00 - [55] - Quote IceFyre S18 wrote: Well, we have, but it seems not all listen. A personal mail would have been nice.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 2	Posted - 2011.10.31 16:42:00 - [56] - Quote Elise DarkStar wrote: IceFyre S18 wrote: Well, we have, but it seems not all listen. A personal mail would have been nice. But honest, you would not beleive me.
Elise DarkStar DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium 118	Posted - 2011.10.31 16:49:00 - [57] - Quote IceFyre S18 wrote: But honest, you would not beleive me. ROFL No, I most likely would not have believed you... Anyway, gratz to everyone who is apparently smarter than me, and now proportionally richer too.
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 3	Posted - 2011.10.31 17:21:00 - [58] - Quote I think there is no winers in this situation of high plex price. PLEX traders don't want price jump, since there is not much profit there, and the price is going into unsafe areas. The PLEX trading is all about turnover, not stockpiling and resselling, coz of a huge capital involved. Stockpilling 1.000 PLEX, waiting, selling, in the end the profit from this big jump is less than if traded those every day. My point is, there is not much profit from this jump. And in long term, high Plex price is bad. So, either will correct somewhere and stay there or this is a only first step from a bigger change. Interesting times ahead.
rogueclone2 MANDALORIAN MOTORS Eve Engineering 0	Posted - 2011.10.31 21:52:00 - [59] - Quote $ 14.95 gets me one plex for 1 account. so now if i'm paying 500 mil for one plex am now paying for my account an 25% of another acount. am i right ?
IceFyre S18 Zulu Labs Zulu People 4	Posted - 2011.10.31 21:58:00 - [60] - Quote No, sorry. You pay again for 1 account, but now instead of working 4 days to earn for PLEX, you work about 5.



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