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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
Liang Nuren
Heretic Army
Atrocitas
3034
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Posted - 2013.02.13 23:33:00 -
[121] - Quote
Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?
-Liang
Normally on 5:00 -> 9-10:00 Eve (Aus TZ?)
Blog: http://liangnuren.wordpress.com
PVP Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/LiangNuren/videos
Twitter: http://twitter.com/LiangNuren
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Jake Warbird
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
2233
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 02:58:00 -
[122] - Quote
Liang Nuren wrote:Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?
-Liang
I suspect you will be surprised where he pulls his facts from. Or not...
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Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1223
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Posted - 2013.02.14 07:38:00 -
[123] - Quote
Liang Nuren wrote:Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?
-Liang
EVE reaches 400,000 subscribers: http://www.pcworld.com/article/252940/inside_eve_online_s_fanfest_2012.html
EVE reaches 450,000 subscribers: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-12-eve-online-reaches-450-000-subscribers
The weekly average PCU data for Tranquility and Serenity where manually picked from all time weekly average graphs on: http://eve-offline.net/
The analysis is quite self-explanatory. I added TQ PCU to SR PCU to get a total PCU for the 450,000 subcribers, then weighted each server's share on the global PCU and applied it on the subscriptions to estimate how many subscribers has each server.
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Ra'Shyne Viper
Dissident Aggressors
Mordus Angels
60
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Posted - 2013.02.14 08:08:00 -
[124] - Quote
I would like to see data for unique IP's not total subscriptions.
If you've played Eve longer than a year youll know how pointless data for total subscriptions is.
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Lexmana
896
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Posted - 2013.02.14 09:02:00 -
[125] - Quote
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
You know it is highly un-likely that the behaviour of players have changed dramatically over the last year to specifically affect PCU only. It is even more unlikely that such potential change in behaviour could explain away the fact that the area under the curve (eve-offline PCU charts) since last expansion even looks to beat the all time high from two years ago though we have yet to beat the peak record of Gëê63k players. But that record will likely be beaten soon if CCP continue on the current path. And why shouldn't they?
The evidence suggest EVE is currently growing no matter how you twist it.
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Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1227
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Posted - 2013.02.14 14:13:00 -
[126] - Quote
Ra'Shyne Viper wrote:I would like to see data for unique IP's not total subscriptions.
If you've played Eve longer than a year youll know how pointless data for total subscriptions is.
And I would liek to be a fly on the wall when CCP discusses their corporate income.
But, feet on the ground, I just read a claim on how TQ had 350k subscriptions vs 100k of SR and made some number crunching to check wether it was likely or don't. The publicly available numbers apparently support the claim.
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Dersen Lowery
Laurentson INC
StructureDamage
424
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Posted - 2013.02.14 16:53:00 -
[127] - Quote
The only hard information we have, directly from senior CCP employees, is that not even CCP knows how many unique players they have. So they're doing things like rolling out an explicit "roll an alt" offer while keeping the buddy offer intact in the hopes that people will use the buddy offer to bring someone new in, and the alt offer to bring alts in, and thereby get them a better idea of what's happening. I'm interested to see what they find, and how coy they are about what they find.
They don't have to be ~dying~ to want to up their subscriber numbers. The winter summit minutes make it abundantly clear that they have a long list of things they have to do, playing catch-up on all their unfinished and undocumented work, and a long list of things they want to do. Given that, of course they'd want more subscribers to give them more resources to commit to overhauling and expanding the game on some sort of reasonable timeline. Who wouldn't? In the near term, they might not care if the growth comes from alts, but long term they'd want more players--which means that they have to have some sense of how many players they actually have.
It's been great to see the numbers online, post-Retribution. When I first joined, the numbers were mid 20s to low 30s. In terms of engaging the player base they have, they're doing a terrific job. An excited player base is just about the best recruitment tool they could ask for.
Malcanis for CSM 8 |
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1232
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 18:17:00 -
[128] - Quote
Dersen Lowery wrote:The only hard information we have, directly from senior CCP employees, is that not even CCP knows how many unique players they have. So they're doing things like rolling out an explicit "roll an alt" offer while keeping the buddy offer intact in the hopes that people will use the buddy offer to bring someone new in, and the alt offer to bring alts in, and thereby get them a better idea of what's happening. I'm interested to see what they find, and how coy they are about what they find.
They don't have to be ~dying~ to want to up their subscriber numbers. The winter summit minutes make it abundantly clear that they have a long list of things they have to do, playing catch-up on all their unfinished and undocumented work, and a long list of things they want to do. Given that, of course they'd want more subscribers to give them more resources to commit to overhauling and expanding the game on some sort of reasonable timeline. Who wouldn't? In the near term, they might not care if the growth comes from alts, but long term they'd want more players--which means that they have to have some sense of how many players they actually have.
It's been great to see the numbers online, post-Retribution. When I first joined, the numbers were mid 20s to low 30s. In terms of engaging the player base they have, they're doing a terrific job. An excited player base is just about the best recruitment tool they could ask for.
I agree that some of the player base is very enthusiastic with the iteration as PCU is growing steadily (albeit DUST could be skewing that), but from my point of view, that's like what Crucible did for Incarna: draw in oldtimers to keep subscriptions, but without any serious hope to recruit new players. EVE has been the same for 10 years, how many people is left who hasn't heard of EVE, hasn't tried, and will try just because it is the same old crap with a different shiny?
Doing the same thing attracts the same people, and after 10 years, EVE is not growing naturally. It is using aggressive marketing campaigns and launches in niche markets and yet it barely holds its ground, or could even be losing it as per this thread.
EVE needs novelty and needs to adress the non-cool players, the ones who don't make !!HEADLINES!! with 3,000 men battles but pay the show to everyone with their sheer number. As the number of those players is thinning, and has been thinning since CCP failed to deliver novelty into the game with Incarna and became focused in fixing thgins that should never had been released in a broken state. Having a crappy bounty system for years, then fix it, is a major loser, as the old bounty system was so ludicrous that it should not have been released ever. That POS management stops sucking is not going to make POS any more interesting to people who can't bother themselves with industry, let alone people who don't play the game and don't know what a POS is. And adressing nullsec is largely irrelevant to the 90% of people who won't touch nullsec with a ten foot pole.
So all in all this means that for the next two years of ""development"", CCP is not going to offer any answer to the million dollar question: Why should YOU play EVE if you didn't like it in the last ten years?
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Liang Nuren
Heretic Army
Atrocitas
3050
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 18:20:00 -
[129] - Quote
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
I asked for the dataset, not the sources.
-Liang
Normally on 5:00 -> 9-10:00 Eve (Aus TZ?)
Blog: http://liangnuren.wordpress.com
PVP Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/LiangNuren/videos
Twitter: http://twitter.com/LiangNuren
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RAP ACTION HERO
153
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Posted - 2013.02.14 18:42:00 -
[130] - Quote
ccp profits when people stay subbed to whine.
Watch classic boxing if you like good fights. |
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1232
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Posted - 2013.02.14 18:45:00 -
[131] - Quote
Liang Nuren wrote:Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote: I asked for the dataset, not the sources. -Liang
This is a opinion and debate thread based upon sources, not datasets. Take it as is.
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1232
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 18:49:00 -
[132] - Quote
RAP ACTION HERO wrote:ccp profits when people stay subbed to whine.
CCP does not profit when people quit instead of whine. And they profit less when people only subscribe when they're offered a discount.
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Liang Nuren
Heretic Army
Atrocitas
3052
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 18:49:00 -
[133] - Quote
So... you're basically just blowing smoke up people's ass and pontificating upon data that you eyeballed? Uh, oh. I guess I can't replicate your observations or apply the datasets that I've previously put together on this or... well, anything. Ok, continue on with the trolling then. Sorry for interrupting - I just thought I might be sharing the room with another math nerd.
-Liang
Normally on 5:00 -> 9-10:00 Eve (Aus TZ?)
Blog: http://liangnuren.wordpress.com
PVP Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/LiangNuren/videos
Twitter: http://twitter.com/LiangNuren
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RAP ACTION HERO
153
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 18:53:00 -
[134] - Quote
maths how does it work
vitoc erryday |
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1232
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Posted - 2013.02.14 19:20:00 -
[135] - Quote
Liang Nuren wrote:So... you're basically just blowing smoke up people's ass and pontificating upon data that you eyeballed? Uh, oh. I guess I can't replicate your observations or apply the datasets that I've previously put together on this or... well, anything. Ok, continue on with the trolling then. Sorry for interrupting - I just thought I might be sharing the room with another math nerd.
-Liang
You're invited to do it the way you think it should be done if you want to, but so far, it's been you who's been trolling the thread.
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Liang Nuren
Heretic Army
Atrocitas
3055
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 19:27:00 -
[136] - Quote
Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling.
-Liang
Normally on 5:00 -> 9-10:00 Eve (Aus TZ?)
Blog: http://liangnuren.wordpress.com
PVP Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/LiangNuren/videos
Twitter: http://twitter.com/LiangNuren
|
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
12889
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 19:39:00 -
[137] - Quote
Liang Nuren wrote:Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling. GǪespecially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.
Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |
Karl Hobb
Stellar Ore Refinery and Crematorium
1124
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 19:50:00 -
[138] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Liang Nuren wrote:Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling. GǪespecially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.
TWO POINTS MAKE A LINE AND ITS TRENDING DOWN
If you're not already part of a bloc, this is the best guy for CSM8. |
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1232
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Posted - 2013.02.14 19:54:00 -
[139] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Liang Nuren wrote:Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling. GǪespecially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.
Let me make a wild guess... I'm going to give you ample time to demonstrate your claim. Exactly, you can demontsrate will I'm unsubbed, which means you will have several months.
Whenever I sub Ishtanchuk again, I will come here to this thread looking for your evidence...
...but don't count on finding it anymore that i count on seeing a flying platypus.
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
436
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 19:56:00 -
[140] - Quote
I remember not too long ago when subscriptions were meaningless and all that mattered was PCU...
Some people really need eve to be dying. It's a part of their psychological makeup, like a religion or ideology. Without it they are lost in a world that no longer makes sense. |
Liang Nuren
Heretic Army
Atrocitas
3058
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 19:57:00 -
[141] - Quote
What kind of analysis do you want to see? I have access to historic data and I can go get fairly current data. I could do something similar to http://liangnuren.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/mmo-pcu/ fairly easily. I was just hoping you'd applied some analysis to the data already, or you actually even had data.
/shrug
-Liang
Normally on 5:00 -> 9-10:00 Eve (Aus TZ?)
Blog: http://liangnuren.wordpress.com
PVP Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/LiangNuren/videos
Twitter: http://twitter.com/LiangNuren
|
baltec1
Bat Country
5223
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 20:17:00 -
[142] - Quote
I do like the EVE is dying posts while enjoying near record PCU counts and pvp everywhere around me while CCP are posting record subscription levels. |
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
1232
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Posted - 2013.02.14 20:20:00 -
[143] - Quote
Liang Nuren wrote:What kind of analysis do you want to see? I have access to historic data and I can go get fairly current data. I could do something similar to http://liangnuren.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/mmo-pcu/ fairly easily. I was just hoping you'd applied some analysis to the data already, or you actually even had data. /shrug -Liang
Provided that actual subcriber data is a corporate secret within CCP and every last MMO developer out there, I wonder what kidn of data did you expected to see... MMOData has been inactive since september 2012 and nobody is asking CCP to provide subscriber numbers (not even "publicable" ones) and so we must rely on press releases and data mining from the EVE Offline records.
I think I've made a competent job with the scarce data available and within my limited expertise and skills.
As with Tippia, i invite you to do it better while I'm away.
Here's some troublesome data:
- DUST players being accounted as part of the PCU
- Tranquility and Serenity subscriptions being accounted as a single subscriptions count
- The unknown Tian City data on EVE subcription in China
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Serenity
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Tranquility
CCP Unifex: -á"lurking single players (...)-áare the majority of characters on Tranquility"
...And so now we know why CCP hasn't done anything for soloers since Apochrypha. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
12889
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 20:26:00 -
[144] - Quote
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:Let me make a wild guess... Ok. What are you guessing?
Quote:I'm going to give you ample time to demonstrate your claim. You mean the historical close correlation between populations and subscriptions? The freely available population history? The (surprise!) 10GÇô20% downturn in populations between Incursion and the hype-chain just before Crucible?
All of that has been well-known for over a year now and I have personally collected some 700 data points to track the changes, which tells a rather more detailed history than your 2 (that you didn't actually collect). And then we can look at the six years worth of data before that, which matches up with the officially published numbers covering the same period.
If you like, we can try to dig through failheap for the informal claim that Incarna caused a 10% loss of subs, if that makes you happier, but again, the covariance and the data we have already shows the same numbersGǪ
Quote:- DUST players being accounted as part of the PCU
- Tranquility and Serenity subscriptions being accounted as a single subscriptions count
- The unknown Tian City data on EVE subcription in China
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Serenity
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Tranquility
DUST players are not counted. The inclusive counting is just a repetition of the point below, rephrased. I haven't bothered checking Serenity subs, but I'm guessing that it won't be hard to actually find a number, and since we have historical data, it won't be difficult to find out the relation between subs and pop just like we already know with TQ. So that only leaves two rather unproblematic points that need to be checkedGǪ or not, since we can quite easily extrapolate TQ-relevant numbers from the data we already have.
Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
3557
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 20:28:00 -
[145] - Quote
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:Tippia wrote:Liang Nuren wrote:Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling. GǪespecially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation. Let me make a wild guess... I'm going to give you ample time to demonstrate your claim. Exactly, you can demontsrate will I'm unsubbed, which means you will have several months. Whenever I sub Ishtanchuk again, I will come here to this thread looking for your evidence... ...but don't count on finding it anymore that i count on seeing a flying platypus.
Well, what you do know about that?
Based on this evidence and your own testimony, case closed. Tippia is right again. 
To carve a successful niche for yourself in EVE you need to be able to out sell, out produce, out fight,-á out run, or out wit your competitors.
If you can do none of the above, your only option is to complain on the forums that somehow you are at a disadvantage using the exact same tool set-áas the rest of the player base. |
Liang Nuren
Heretic Army
Atrocitas
3058
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 20:40:00 -
[146] - Quote
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Provided that actual subcriber data is a corporate secret within CCP and every last MMO developer out there, I wonder what kidn of data did you expected to see... MMOData has been inactive since september 2012 and nobody is asking CCP to provide subscriber numbers (not even "publicable" ones) and so we must rely on press releases and data mining from the EVE Offline records.
I think I've made a competent job with the scarce data available and within my limited expertise and skills.
Hmmm, companies tend to be pretty vocal when their business is doing well. Financials are also a pretty reasonable way to get (mostly) accurate sub numbers.
-Liang
Normally on 5:00 -> 9-10:00 Eve (Aus TZ?)
Blog: http://liangnuren.wordpress.com
PVP Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/LiangNuren/videos
Twitter: http://twitter.com/LiangNuren
|
W3370Pi4
Comel Technology
104
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 20:46:00 -
[147] - Quote
At some point CCP will think again and start it again
I was waiting for the incarna release since 2008......
I hope they realize their mistake sooner than later
________________________________________
GåÆGÿà Join the "Legit Trading" Channel - http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Legit_Trading GåÉGÿà |
baltec1
Bat Country
5228
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 20:59:00 -
[148] - Quote
W3370Pi4 wrote:At some point CCP will think again and start it again
I was waiting for the incarna release since 2008......
I hope they realize their mistake sooner than later
They did see the mistake. Thats why we got retribution, the best update for years. |
Lexmana
899
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 23:40:00 -
[149] - Quote
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
I think I've made a competent job with the scarce data available and within my limited expertise and skills.
Competent with limited expertise and skills? |
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
7621
|
Posted - 2013.02.15 08:20:00 -
[150] - Quote
baltec1 wrote:I do like the EVE is dying posts while enjoying near record PCU counts and pvp everywhere around me while CCP are posting record subscription levels.
Historically high PCUs are an incontrovertible sign that we need more CONCORD protection because obviously they'd be even higher if new players were protected more (and also my 4 billion ISK missionmobile)
Vote for Malcanis for CSM8
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=192717&find=unread |
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