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Charles Case
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
537
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 19:26:00 -
[1] - Quote
Thanks to our very own Weaselior crossposted from GF.com:
test would appreciate it if you wouldn't look too closely at their money vault
Over the last few days, TEST has suddenly - in the grips of wretched poverty - settled on their latest narrative. Shortly after "Going out on our own down with allies" had to be shelved, they settled on an equally factual narrative: that Goonswarm was nearly broke.
In addition, TEST has screeched furiously over our finally announcing how many r64s we'd taken from TEST. Unfortunately, here we can't reveal everything because taking r64s in Fountain wasn't just done by blowing up TEST r64 towers. Because TEST is currently a disorganized shambling mess they've got no idea where the new r64s are in Fountain. We do, and we took them. This spreadsheet shows a large amount of the destroyed TEST control towers, along with the moon mineral they were mining I believe this list is actually fairly incomplete (I believe it leaves off most of the moons they've lost in NPC fountain to the locals), but given the amount of TEST insistence that the r64 claims were a lie, well, facts are troublesome things.
Keep in mind, this is what the test line member apparently believes:
If you look at that spreadsheet you'll notice 7 r64s lost in Delve. A Dyspro moon a thulium moon, another dyspro another thulium, a third dyspro and for good measure twomore thuliums.
Now, it is true that most of the r64s we've taken in Fountain we now own sov in the system as well. That's just good common sense. TEST has loudly proclaimed that they've retaken many r64 moons. The only moon they appear to be correct about is this one, a thulium: http://eve-kill.net/...kll_id=18303069
It is possible these delve r64s were privately owned and nobody in TEST leadership knew what those moons were. However, a good number of those moons are on dotlan so that seems unlikely - and for the ones that aren't, well, it's not a good sign that TEST's members could ninja their own private r64 in their homeland without anyone being the wiser. While we've used our private scans to verify what moon minerals were there, anyone who disbelieves us is free to go shoot a probe at these moons.
TEST is broke. They've been loudly denying it, but their reimbursements are backlogged to **** - and that's without even paying 100% reimbursements for their biggest doctrine, Navy Apocs (a TEST pilot losing a navy apoc gets the same reimbursement as a pilot flying a standard apoc).
I've spent a little time today figuring out just how boned TEST is. This investigation got sparked by Pmchem noticing that TEST has lost a staggering 2.25 trillion isk in ships over the past month and a half. June Losses May Losses. However, this isn't enough to figure out what they're down: for that, we need to look at their reimbursement sheet. Fortunately, I just so happen to have a copy.
According to my estimates, TEST has run up a 730 billion isk reimbursement bill alone since May 1st. If you'd like to make your own estimates about what percentage each category of ships are reimbursed, just make a copy and play with the menus. I intend to refine this estimate further when we can mine the killboard to get exact counts of what ships have been lost so we're counting each and every apoc, rokh, and the like rather than the relatively crude estimate we've got now. When I do, the reimbursement estimate will go up. Currently, all these estimates are slotting every destroyed ship into the lowest reimbursement slot that fits (except battleships, where I felt a t2 Rokh was a good compromise as a low estimate thanks to the cost of apocs). Then, they're discounted by an estimate of what is reimbursable: logis are considered always reimbursable, while battlecruisers are considered only lost in a reimbursable way half the time. The goal is to give the most conservative estimate of what their reimbursements could possibly be. And that estimate is monstrous. When it's more accurate, it's going to be terrifying.
To put that 730 billion in perspective, at no point while the TEST accounting sheet was public did they ever break 500 billion isk. And that was before it mysteriously broke as soon as they started losing money ... |
Charles Case
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
537
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 19:27:00 -
[2] - Quote
... But not to worry, TEST's refusal to reimburse carrier pilots and faction battleship pilots defending their space is not class warfare. Even the rawest, poorest, newbie is being denied reimbursement for his t1 destroyer:
There's nothing wrong with a low-cost doctrine. We love low-cost doctrines ourselves. That's why we hand out caracal fleets to basically anyone with a pulse, and might even consider letting someone of Zverofaust's skill take one out if he was strictly supervised. But every caracal from Goonswarm that dies gets reimbursed.
So TEST is significantly behind on reimbursements. There are some ways they've been able to tread water. Some of those lost dreads were likely repaid from a dread cache (reportedly, the dreads thrown away trying to gank NC. nyxes were replaced from the cache). However, as we've got reports that there are dread pilots who have been waiting weeks for replacements or reimbursement, it's likely that these dreads are either all gone, or capital ships are being replaced from the cache selectively. The other is simply making promises. TEST pilots must be aware by now that the reimbursement queue is significantly backlogged. If they haven't lost a ship that hasn't been reimbursed, they know someone who has. The explanation from TEST leadership has been that this is merely a problem of the reimbursement wallet not being refilled. There's sometimes truth to that: our own reimbursements on occasion have been held up several hours while reimbursers pinged directors on jabber to refill the wallet. However, at some point it must become obvious to TEST line members that the lack of reimbursement wallet refills is deliberate: there simply isn't the money to pay for the "IOU One Ship" promises TEST has been forced to hand out like candy. At that point, they've got to ask themselves if TEST can actually pay everyone back.
TEST has no good way of paying all of their reimbursement debts. Test's r64 towers are being constantly sieged and lost (when a moon is in reinforced it does not mine, so even a saved tower has lost a day and a half of mining time). R64s - TEST's only real source of income, now that anyone who looks crossways at a rat gets dropped by blackops - have been plummeting from their pre-Odyssey highs as speculators cash in their newfound riches. R64 prices are also significantly hurt because millions of microprocessors were made pre-patch. The new metamaterials required for microprocessors are what will drive higher r64 prices, and right now only the dimmest of empire pubbies buy them instead of buying built microprocessors off the market. Neodymium - which we were selling at between 40-70k during TEST's attempt to cartel it - is at 27k on jita sells and 22k on jita buys. Promethium is a mere 20k, thulium is 15k, and dyspro is a surprisingly high 31k. As TEST's income plummets, their Fountain moons become an unreliable source of income: even when they can defend them, or retake them, they're not making any money for the time they spend in reinforced or in our hands. Delve is their only source of income and PIZZA is taking it away rather rapidly without appearing to face any real resistance. Given that TEST has fled to lowsec, it's unlikely they can do anything about the loss of these moons.
As a result, TEST is in a fairly untenable position. Whatever meagre savings they had are long gone. I'm sure they've kept a hundred billion or so back from reimbursements, keeping money around for whatever the directors need rather than reduce the reimbursment backlog. But fighting a war isn't cheap even without reimbursements, and I'm not sure TEST even has enough money to really pay those bills. Their reimbursement backlog is only going to get worse, even if a few lucky people who got killed a few weeks ago finally get their reimbursements. It appears that TEST has been making token payments every so often to keep up the appearance of reimbursing ships, but it does not appear likely they've made a significant dent in their backlog and it seems likely the backlog is getting worse.
This lack of reimbursement hasn't taken its toll yet, largely because TEST pilots don't really seem to be aware of how backed up their reimbursement is. They are still fielding carrier fleets and napoc fleets. However, the percentage of napocs appears to be steadily going down as TEST pilots decide to switch to ships that may be fully reimbursed, someday.
TEST is going to need to start feeding a spin to its members which will not be terribly interesting (unless they happen to go the route of brutal honesty). What will be interesting is what data they offer to support whatever story they settle on. Currently, the data they've been offering is...well, nothing. If they somehow manage to get a cash infusion and actually deal with the problem we're likely to see actual data being given to their pilots and to the public to confirm it - after all, there's no propaganda nearly as effective as the truth. If we don't see any data, it's a good sign that the real data makes the situation look much more dire for TEST than their public assertions would indicate. |
Charles Case
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
537
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 19:27:00 -
[3] - Quote
... |
Charles Case
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
537
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 19:29:00 -
[4] - Quote
So there you have it, TEST is doing fine guys, nbd. |
Ka'Narlist
Cronos Titan Test Alliance Please Ignore
31
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 19:52:00 -
[5] - Quote
Charles Case wrote:So there you have it, TEST is doing fine guys, nbd. Thx was searching for a tldr; |
WarFireV
Blackwater USA Inc. Pandemic Legion
96
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 20:27:00 -
[6] - Quote
Hey guys do you remember that one time ISK won a war? |
Ersahi Kir
Infinite Mobility SpaceMonkey's Alliance
190
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 20:30:00 -
[7] - Quote
Test has a hidden source of income though. I got a couple emails saying that they were hired to wardec my corp a while back, but if I sent them some isk they would forget about it.
You obviously overlooked that.
Had to go back and search for it, and here it is in it's entirety
Quote:Re: An Offer From: Ersahi Kir To: ColonelSplendido Counterproposal:
I pour chocolate syrup on my taint and you lick it off. This offer will not expire in the foreseeable future.
An Offer From: ColonelSplendido Sent: 2013.04.09 03:01 To: Ersahi Kir,
My client has hired me to hunt you specifically and your corp members. However being a business man I'm willing to make a deal, give me 500m isk to this account and i will make the contract go away.
You have 36 hours to send the isk.
If ColonelSplendido is reading this, my offer still stands. |
Charles Case
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
538
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 20:32:00 -
[8] - Quote
WarFireV wrote:Hey guys do you remember that one time ISK won a war?
-A- guy knows what wins wars lol |
Varesk
Origin. Black Legion.
391
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 21:25:00 -
[9] - Quote
PROPAGANDA SPIN 101.
dont believe the goon. |
Proletariat Tingtango
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
375
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 21:41:00 -
[10] - Quote
I don't know or actually care how broke TEST is, but if their SRP is as truly backlogged as is being said, that's really bad for them.
I mean it's cool and all that they have big bros in ~*Elite PVP*~ propping them up in an attempt to repel the goons, but it's a dire situation for TEST after this fountain conflict settles, no matter who wins. If you've effectively stopped reimbursing capitals, your pilot morale is going to plummet and attrition rate is going to skyrocket.
I know you guys left the CFC like a year ago but enjoy the clusterfuck you've made for yourselves. |
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Scooter McCabe
SUNDERING Goonswarm Federation
212
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 21:50:00 -
[11] - Quote
Varesk wrote:PROPAGANDA SPIN 101.
dont believe the goon.
Okay let's hear from TEST's reimbursement team and Boodabooda. Better yet lets see their finances and a working API so TEST line members can see just how "OK" things are in TEST alliance right now.
|
Proletariat Tingtango
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
376
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 22:34:00 -
[12] - Quote
Accusations? Against my alliance? Better hemhaw about spin and propaganda. Don't bother to back anything up, just flatly deny. the chocolate ration has been increased from one gram a day to one and a half. We were always at war with eastasia. |
Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3711
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 23:25:00 -
[13] - Quote
Proletariat Tingtango wrote:I don't know or actually care how broke TEST is, but if their SRP is as truly backlogged as is being said, that's really bad for them.
I mean it's cool and all that they have big bros in ~*Elite PVP*~ propping them up in an attempt to repel the goons, but it's a dire situation for TEST after this fountain conflict settles, no matter who wins. If you've effectively stopped reimbursing capitals, your pilot morale is going to plummet and attrition rate is going to skyrocket.
I know you guys left the CFC like a year ago but enjoy the clusterfuck you've made for yourselves. As long as they can rely on PL/NC. (super)capital support, it's all good. Onward to victory !
This time they'll convince Shadoo to help them grind the CFC sov, I'm sure of it. I am a nullsec zealot. |
Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3711
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 23:28:00 -
[14] - Quote
Proletariat Tingtango wrote:Accusations? Against my alliance? Better hemhaw about spin and propaganda. Don't bother to back anything up, just flatly deny. the chocolate ration has been increased from one gram a day to one and a half. We were always at war with eastasia. I think it's great that their line members are willing to step up and grind their own ships for the sake of ... something, I don't know what.
But it's great nonetheless.
Also, they don't get Cheetos and Mountain Dew? I am a nullsec zealot. |
Toshiro Ozuwara
Association of Commonwealth Enterprises Test Alliance Please Ignore
94
|
Posted - 2013.06.19 23:48:00 -
[15] - Quote
While I appreciate the tinfoil hattery of the OP, which has since been shown to be BS on Kugu, I'll post the Test Reimbursement stats made public on June 16th to all of Test.
A couple notes where that spreadsheet is wrong.
1. The estimates assume every ship is SRPed. They are not. Test members are reasonably wealthy and self sufficient, so many ship losses don't even go to SRP. Poor Test members get shipped up for free.
2. The SRP backlog is basic cash flow management and to limit theft opportunities from the wallet. Any request for urgent payout is honored almost immediately. The backlog exists because Test members don't rely on SRP to fund their hangars.
To give one an idea of how ironic the OP is, it's estimated that the CFC took 300 bill in losses in 36 hours between Fountain and the north last week, which if correct would be half of our "estimated" SRP over 45 days.
REIMBURSEMENT STATS A post, in which I attempt to smith words and end up creating graphs instead...
I've been enabled by our benevolent Dr. Kang to feed you all /*lies and propaganda*/ updates about the war. I thought, along with the next update, I'd include a small section about reimbursements. See, the CFC has started a rumor that we're not reimbursing anyone, because we're space-poor. I figured I could nip that in the bud. Well, I contacted Packet Ninja, who put me in touch with 47Magnum, who dumped a metric boatload of numbers in my lap! (47Magnum, you should post so we can upvote you for your assistance!)
Anyway, friends, it was too much information to just be a bullet point in a bigger update, so here's a whole post, dedicated to Reimbursement Stats!
First thing's first, the big number: Since late in the day on June 7th (the day we announced our move to Karan), we have approved 96,807,750,000 ISK in reimbursements.
For all of the rest of the stats and graphs, keep in mind: 1.) The reimbursement lags behind the events which get reimbursed. 2.) This is ONLY reimbursement. Not ships lost, not things that people didn't request reimbursement for, ONLY reimbursement.
To start: How good are we at following directions?
http://i.imgur.com/nhCubdZ.png
That's not bad! Let's break it down by corp - for these graphics, if your corp had less than 20 reimbursement requests, it got lumped into a big pie slice with the rest of the corps with < 20 requests.
http://i.imgur.com/I3Sz3ts.png
...and by the amount of isk to each of those corps....
http://i.imgur.com/AjqsJ5y.png
... And the top corps by amount (all corps with over 2b in reimbursement):
http://i.imgur.com/iDuFNGC.png
You may wonder which systems have been the bloodiest and most expensive for TEST? Well, I have the answers! As you'll see on this graph, though, at the time of the Karan move, we're still working through the NOL losses (hence the caveat about the lag time).
http://i.imgur.com/6scjdne.png
And we can also get those systems with the number of ships lost in each (though the graphs look about the same)...
https://forum.pleaseignore.com/topic/41382-an-update-on-the-war-with-graphs/
You may wonder what types of ships that TEST likes to die in? Maybe, what's the most cost-effective? Well, let's take a look. Keep in mind, Navy Apocs, while sexy, only get reimbursed at regular Apoc rates.
http://i.imgur.com/EpvjoWD.png
The naga only makes up about 15% of the isk reimbursed, but, in number of ships lost and reimbursed, it's the undisputed king:
http://i.imgur.com/4A8Jzhd.png Will Fountain be Goonswarm's Waterloo?Read all about it in COAD. |
Proletariat Tingtango
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
380
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 00:19:00 -
[16] - Quote
They're only numbers on paper. Once you understand that, it's easy to make them behave. |
Toshiro Ozuwara
Association of Commonwealth Enterprises Test Alliance Please Ignore
94
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 00:26:00 -
[17] - Quote
Proletariat Tingtango wrote:They're only numbers on paper. Once you understand that, it's easy to make them behave. I agree. Usually the group that starts talking about the ISK war is the group that is losing.
What matters is how quickly CFC is starting to lose space, moons and stations in the north, and going backwards on early gains in Fountain.
All of the tech wealth in the game apparently can't buy military success. Will Fountain be Goonswarm's Waterloo?Read all about it in COAD. |
Proletariat Tingtango
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
380
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 00:27:00 -
[18] - Quote
Something something river in egypt hurr durr test is bad. |
Toshiro Ozuwara
Association of Commonwealth Enterprises Test Alliance Please Ignore
94
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 00:35:00 -
[19] - Quote
What is there to deny? The truth favors us. Post whatever you want if you can prove it. Will Fountain be Goonswarm's Waterloo?Read all about it in COAD. |
Andski
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
8270
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 00:38:00 -
[20] - Quote
i dunno you seem proud to always play second fiddle every time it matters Twitter: @EVEAndski
TheMittani.com: The premier source for news, commentary and discussion of EVE Online and other games of interest.-á |
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Andski
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
8270
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 00:45:00 -
[21] - Quote
Toshiro Ozuwara wrote:While I appreciate the tinfoil hattery of the OP, which has since been shown to be BS on Kugu
yeah it turned out to be BS because test isn't pulling the R64 income we thought they were, because you sold your moons
and as it turns out the guy that said "hey let's sell our moons at a horribly low price" ended up being the one that bought most of them at a horribly low price Twitter: @EVEAndski
TheMittani.com: The premier source for news, commentary and discussion of EVE Online and other games of interest.-á |
Toshiro Ozuwara
Association of Commonwealth Enterprises Test Alliance Please Ignore
98
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 01:18:00 -
[22] - Quote
Andski wrote: i dunno you seem proud to always play second fiddle every time it matters The neat thing about value judgments is that they are subjective, and so everyone can believe different things matter at different times. Will Fountain be Goonswarm's Waterloo?Read all about it in COAD. |
Userkare
Hoover Inc. Test Alliance Please Ignore
57
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 01:29:00 -
[23] - Quote
Andski wrote:Toshiro Ozuwara wrote:While I appreciate the tinfoil hattery of the OP, which has since been shown to be BS on Kugu yeah it turned out to be BS because test isn't pulling the R64 income we thought they were, because you sold your moons and as it turns out the guy that said "hey let's sell our moons at a horribly low price" ended up being the one that bought most of them at a horribly low price
Baki argued against the sale. R64's are nationalized for the duration of the war. Also the ******* **** about us relying on allies. What the christ guys? |
Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3711
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 01:33:00 -
[24] - Quote
Toshiro Ozuwara wrote:Andski wrote: i dunno you seem proud to always play second fiddle every time it matters The neat thing about value judgments is that they are subjective, and so everyone can believe different things matter at different times. Sure, let's just believe whatever you tell us then. I am a nullsec zealot. |
Toshiro Ozuwara
Association of Commonwealth Enterprises Test Alliance Please Ignore
98
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 01:38:00 -
[25] - Quote
Alavaria Fera wrote:Sure, let's just believe whatever you tell us then. I would never ask you to "believe me".
Belief requires an unbelievably low standard of proof. Trust the facts. Will Fountain be Goonswarm's Waterloo?Read all about it in COAD. |
Userkare
Hoover Inc. Test Alliance Please Ignore
57
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 01:40:00 -
[26] - Quote
Man the desperation is palpable in these threads. |
Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3711
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 01:52:00 -
[27] - Quote
Toshiro Ozuwara wrote:Alavaria Fera wrote:Sure, let's just believe whatever you tell us then. I would never ask you to "believe me". Belief requires an unbelievably low standard of proof. Trust the facts. Your wonderfully picked numbers, instead of our wonderfully picked numbers, right? I am a nullsec zealot. |
Andski
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
8270
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 01:55:00 -
[28] - Quote
Userkare wrote:Baki argued against the sale. R64's are nationalized for the duration of the war. Also the ******* **** about us relying on allies. What the christ guys?
it helps to be the guy that argued against a thing when somebody questions why you benefit from said thing far more than anybody else
and there's a difference between relying on allies and, as I said, invariably playing second fiddle to said allies whenever it actually matters
sure you can say "well your allies play second fiddle" but our allies are a fraction your size Twitter: @EVEAndski
TheMittani.com: The premier source for news, commentary and discussion of EVE Online and other games of interest.-á |
Random Majere
Epsilon Lyr Nulli Secunda
84
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 03:19:00 -
[29] - Quote
Userkare wrote:Man the desperation is palpable in these threads.
Totally agree with you m8. My guess is, they are feeling the tide turning. |
Andski
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
8271
|
Posted - 2013.06.20 03:32:00 -
[30] - Quote
Random Majere wrote:Userkare wrote:Man the desperation is palpable in these threads. Totally agree with you m8. My guess is, they are feeling the tide turning.
lol okay Twitter: @EVEAndski
TheMittani.com: The premier source for news, commentary and discussion of EVE Online and other games of interest.-á |
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