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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 3 post(s) |
Weedge
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Posted - 2006.01.04 23:37:00 -
[1]
 This lottery system is a joke! Since the RMR patch I have heard from several people getting multiple new T2 BPO's from their agents. I thought this is a "Lottery" system. I wish my state would use this lottery system so that I could become an instant billionare!!! How many times have you heard a person hit the lottery multiple times in a row? I have been doing R&D research since it began and have not gotten a thing from them.
This system needs to be revamped and made more like the Loyaly Point system. If you get offered a BPO then it is going to cost you research points. This would relieve the same people getting these BPO's over and over again, and spread the wealth around.
-Weedge (Storm Guard Elite)
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HippoKing
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Posted - 2006.01.04 23:38:00 -
[2]
think, research, THEN post.
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Zell
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Posted - 2006.01.04 23:39:00 -
[3]
The lottery is a Tax on people with poor math skills...
"Ginger Magician is just a nublet. I've met more people ingame that have laughed about him, than anyone else in Eve."
"A coward dies a thousand times, the brave die just once.." |
Dark Shikari
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Posted - 2006.01.04 23:42:00 -
[4]
Let me guess.
1) You didn't take probability in elementary school.
2) You are researching Starship Engineering or a field which isn't getting new BPOs in RMR.
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Proud member of the [23].
The Tachikomas are DEAD! Click sig for video.
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Baldour Ngarr
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Posted - 2006.01.04 23:59:00 -
[5]
 Originally by: Dark Shikari
Let me guess.
1) You didn't take probability in elementary school.
2) You are researching Starship Engineering or a field which isn't getting new BPOs in RMR.
Nobody takes probability in elementary school; but the degree-level studies all agree that it's unreasonable to assume the CCP lottery is fair. It's just too unlikely that there'd be *so* many multiple winners; the bell curve is out of sight on this one.
________________________________________________
"I tried strip mining, but I lost, and it's cold flying around in space naked." |
Dark Shikari
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Posted - 2006.01.05 00:01:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Dark Shikari on 05/01/2006 00:01:40
Originally by: Baldour Ngarr
Originally by: Dark Shikari
Let me guess.
1) You didn't take probability in elementary school.
2) You are researching Starship Engineering or a field which isn't getting new BPOs in RMR.
Nobody takes probability in elementary school; but the degree-level studies all agree that it's unreasonable to assume the CCP lottery is fair. It's just too unlikely that there'd be *so* many multiple winners; the bell curve is out of sight on this one.
No, its not, actually.
For every winner of 5 BPOs you meet, there are 100 people who won just one.
This is a bias which the human brain creates artificially. You think its far more unlikely than it actually is. For example, have you ever thought of someone, and five minutes later got a call that they were dead/injured/in a car accident/etc? Someone did a calculation and found that the odds were that such a thing would happen at least once in everyone's life, on average.
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Proud member of the [23].
The Tachikomas are DEAD! Click sig for video.
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Gonada
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Posted - 2006.01.05 00:42:00 -
[7]
or every winner of 5 BPOs you meet, there are 100 people who won just one.
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um i thought less than 30 t2 bpo's are out?
-I don't necessarily agree with everything I say.-
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Alvara
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Posted - 2006.01.05 00:46:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Gonada
or every winner of 5 BPOs you meet, there are 100 people who won just one.
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um i thought less than 30 t2 bpo's are out?
Less then 30 of each T2 item in game is a better statement.
The more exact as far as my knowledge goes, is either 8 or 20 of each T2 BPO has been seeded to lottery.
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Gonada
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Posted - 2006.01.05 00:54:00 -
[9]
ahh ok, well it does indeed sound gimped.
specially if you say, 30% of the total accounts are researchers, with a member count of 70,000 people that would be say 100 t 2 bpos lotteried on 21,000 people.
and multiple people have multiple t2 bpo's.
-I don't necessarily agree with everything I say.-
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Nyphur
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Posted - 2006.01.05 00:58:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Baldour Ngarr
Originally by: Dark Shikari
Let me guess.
1) You didn't take probability in elementary school.
2) You are researching Starship Engineering or a field which isn't getting new BPOs in RMR.
Nobody takes probability in elementary school; but the degree-level studies all agree that it's unreasonable to assume the CCP lottery is fair. It's just too unlikely that there'd be *so* many multiple winners; the bell curve is out of sight on this one.
It's also unreasonable to assume it's unfair. Please don't give information which implies a falsehood without its counterbalance.
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Gonada
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Posted - 2006.01.05 01:03:00 -
[11]
It's also unreasonable to assume it's unfair. Please don't give information which implies a falsehood without its counterbalance.
---------------------------------------------
Thus the point of this particular forum, people have a hard time trusting in a system unless they see how it works.
alot like domocracy lol
-I don't necessarily agree with everything I say.-
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Callan Skiderlar
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Posted - 2006.01.05 01:18:00 -
[12]
BPO offers do cost you research points. It blanks out all your points with that agent.
This is another topic that should be on the proverbial Dead Horse sticky thread as having been beaten to death so thoroughly that we should never talk about it again.
It helps think about the daily RP rate and how that compares to the average RP rate. If more people are increasing their rate above yours, every day your odds go down that the next drop will be yours. If you're above the rate, your odds are improving. Plus you need to remember people are running multiple agents, using top level 4s, running researcher missions, etc. The lottery analogy only goes so far - it's a question of how many tickets you're buying each day as much as anything else.
So if you're sitting on 10k RP since the beginning, don't hold your breath or marvel that those who have earned 300k RP have scored multiple BPs.
---
Selling:
Naglfars: 2.1B - build queue is: 4
Havoc Precisions: 1M per 1,000
Improved cloaks: 15M |
Nyphur
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Posted - 2006.01.05 01:44:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Nyphur on 05/01/2006 01:46:34
Originally by: Gonada
Thus the point of this particular forum, people have a hard time trusting in a system unless they see how it works.
alot like democracy lol
I trust that CCP know if it's messed up or not. They said it's random and it appears to be within statistical tolerance of a random distribution curve, dispite what people are saying.
There are a few things people are forgetting which are important. Firstly, hundreds, if not thousands of T2 bpos have been released in total. One person getting 8 of them is not statistically improbable at all and even so, it's not the norm and thus even if it was statistically improbable, it wouldn't be any indication that the system is broken - it would be called a statistical anomaly.
Secondly, people can run multiple accounts and multiple agents per account. One PERSON getting 8 BPOs isn't even relevant data, one account getting 8 is a bit more relevant and one character getting 8 is even more relevant but the only viable data here would be one AGENT on one character giving 8 BPOs out over a certain length of time. And even THAT only proves anything if it happens a significant number of times.
EDIT: Also, it's not even possible for one agent to give out more than one BPO at the same time, which is where most of this complaining came from - people winning multiple T2 bpos just after the patch. Once you accept one bpo, all your RP go poof.
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Dust Angel
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:00:00 -
[14]
I have a 50mm II plate bpo, im so rich. yes, i print money with the bloody thing.
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Dark Shikari
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:03:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Dust Angel
I have a 50mm II plate bpo, im so rich. yes, i print money with the bloody thing.
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Proud member of the [23].
The Tachikomas are DEAD! Click sig for video.
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MadGaz
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:04:00 -
[16]
This is a joke, I have 273 research points. Where is my tech2 bpo that will get me billions?!?!?
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Mae rhywun wedi cael gwared o fy sig, rwy'n gobeithio bydd nhw'n farw yn araf... |
Malthros Zenobia
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:08:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Nyphur
It's also unreasonable to assume it's unfair. Please don't give information which implies a falsehood without its counterbalance.
No it's not. When you have CCP staff saying they regret using the system, you know it's bad.
Please, no political remarks. - Laqum
Being a forum mod should require knowing what poltical satire is before nerfing sigs. |
The Enslaver
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:31:00 -
[18]
Edited by: The Enslaver on 05/01/2006 02:31:04
3 BPO's since August with a value of about 55b combined. I'm happy enough. Thing is, I have 3 char's I'm running RnD agents on, one with more RP's in most projects than the one I got all three BPO's on.
Something is a little bugged tbh, most people I know have been getting them on the same char's also...
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Shinra Director
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Deileon
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:31:00 -
[19]
I got 2 T2 Ship BPOs within a few days of each other, after the previous big patch. Throw that on the statistical fire... (I've sold them FYI.)
They say bananas are a dish best served cold... |
Deileon
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:33:00 -
[20]
Originally by: The Enslaver
3 BPO's since August with a value of about 55b combined.
55B? WTF was worth that? Now I feel poor again...
They say bananas are a dish best served cold... |
Wee Dave
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:44:00 -
[21]
Lots of people boost their alts up to do research. It's not that time consuming; you need two rank 1 skills to 5, the relevent research skills, project management, and possibly a little bit in social so you can boost their standing faster.
If you do that with your main and both alts getting project management 4 you are running fifteen agents. If you have a second account that can become thirty agents. I haven't heard someone with thirty agents for over a year complain they've never won anything.
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Deileon
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:50:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Deileon on 05/01/2006 02:51:00
Unfortunately you'd have to log in to your alts every other day, just to check on your non-existant BPOs. That's too much cumulative disappointment for me.
They say bananas are a dish best served cold... |
Nyphur
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:54:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Malthros Zenobia
Originally by: Nyphur
It's also unreasonable to assume it's unfair. Please don't give information which implies a falsehood without its counterbalance.
No it's not. When you have CCP staff saying they regret using the system, you know it's bad.
That is completely and utterly nbeside the point and has nothing to do with what I said or quoted.
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Theonlystd
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Posted - 2006.01.05 02:54:00 -
[24]
This isnt really a lottery in the sense of a 1 in 400mil odds
Poeple have thousands of tickets in mulitple pools. Theres hundreds being given out.
Now u understand math and all that jazz and such
There going to be multiple winners. Thats how it should work someone who has max agents on mulitple acounts with thousands of rp's will win. There will be multiple winners
As Dark Shikari said its all in the head. You precieve it to be worse than it is. Everyone whos won 2,3 theres been countless who have won just 1.
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Aye Spellcheck is beyond me along with propper grammer. |
Naal Morno
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Posted - 2006.01.05 03:04:00 -
[25]
Ok, people, chill.
The fact is CCP released paramount number of BPOs this patch (20 different ships, 48 different ammo bpo, times about 40-50 as hinted by oveour for ammo and 24 or so for ships). It is somewhere in Blogs or some thread, Oveur said 5,000 bpos hits shortly after RMR gets released. If you have any measurable amount of RPs you will get your bpo... worth prolly nothing since so many got released at once!
So all whiners got what they wanted, except now that everyone and their grandma has a bpo, their value is not as pre RMR and as used to be.
Cheers.
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Makhan
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Posted - 2006.01.05 03:11:00 -
[26]
The only way to fix the lottery is with a time machine.
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almightybig
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Posted - 2006.01.05 03:12:00 -
[27]
This is what I've heard about the way the lottery works and it makes sense to me that this is how it works:
There are multiple lotteries to arrive at one lottery. If that makes any sense.
First, The GM's/Dev's decide on which BPO's should be released next.
Second, they pool all the agents that can give out said BPO's together.
Third, the lottery wheel starts and "draws" out names of agents that will dish out said BPO's.
Fourth, once all agents have been assigned to give out bpo's then another lottery starts for players that have those agents.
Fifth, the agent then gives out the BPO to the "player" winner of the lottery.
And now youre going to say that what about the different level of agents. Easy fix, For every L1 agent gets 1"ball" in the mix, L2 gets 2 "balls", L3 gets 3 balls, etc....So that a L4 agent named "x" would have 4 times the odds of getting selected to give out a bpo as compared to a L1 agent named "y". This only decreases the odds of you having the agent selected to dole out a bpo.
So, in essence, there are 4-5 little lotteries that happen in order to actually get to the player that gets the bpo. Kind of like the "pyramid" idea. One major assumption I use is that the gm'/dev's decide on what bpo's to release and when, which is logical.
So the odds of one person getting more than one bpo is almost not a calculable number. If its done any other way than this then that might be the problem.
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Alain Josviar
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Posted - 2006.01.05 03:15:00 -
[28]
*Disclaimer* I won a 200mm Reiforced Steel Plates II BPO a few months back, made about 100mil profit from it then sold it on auction for 1.2bil recently.
The sad part in all of this is that we're discussing the intricacies of the T2 BPO 'lottery system' instead of the intricacies of the 'agent research system' leading up to obtaining a T2 BPO. I think we all can agree that the lottery system has become very long in the tooth and that CCP needs to actually do some of that thing called development to revamp the T2 BPO process, which they should've done from the beginning. Instead they opted for the tried and true MMO 'development' approach of pushing the simplest pile of crap out the door just to get something out the door.
The fact that the fastest way to obtain a T2 BPO, a science and research line of game play, is to create a combat character, w***e kill missions then go pick your nose in a corner until the lottery commission calls is retarded beyond belief.
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Noriath
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Posted - 2006.01.05 03:26:00 -
[29]
With people running 15 agents on a single account its no wonder that you have no real chances to win the lottery if you just do it with your main...
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Xiao Fang
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Posted - 2006.01.05 04:02:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Noriath
With people running 15 agents on a single account its no wonder that you have no real chances to win the lottery if you just do it with your main...
That's the real farce tbh.
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